long term capital plays 03-07-2008

[formula_2002]

track date race pgno name ml post
LRL 20080307 2 3 RIVER LOVER 3 1:03
GP 20080307 1 8 CARA BONITA 6 1:15
BEU 20080307 2 2 LADY LAKE A 3 1:41
BEU 20080307 2 4 CIRCULAR REA 5 1:41
FG 20080307 2 6 MY PROUD REB 3.5 2:02
TUP 20080307 1 4 SUISSE MOVEM 3 2:30
GP 20080307 4 5 FLIGHTWITHOU 5 2:42
AQU 20080307 5 7 TRUE ROCK N 3.5 2:56
HAW 20080307 3 4 DEVIL IN EXC 3 3:04
OP 20080307 3 1 MARENGI 3.5 3:27
TUP 20080307 3 4 PEACE OF THE 3 3:36
BEU 20080307 7 7 PRIZE MONEY 20 3:51
OP 20080307 4 11 SWEET MOTION 4 3:54
HAW 20080307 4 4 ADACAT 5 4:01
TAM 20080307 9 6 MOONSHINE AL 3 4:10
HAW 20080307 5 6 ICE STORM CO 3 4:29
TAM 20080307 10 9 STARLET SKY 3.5 4:37
TUP 20080307 5 6 GLITTERNMEPO 3.5 4:40
OP 20080307 7 3 CHOCTAW BING 3.5 5:17
SA 20080307 5 7 MONK 3 6:05
TUP 20080307 8 1 DESERTSTORME 5 6:14
TUP 20080307 8 5 FOGGY HAZE 3.5 6:14
SA 20080307 7 7 STARRY PURSU 4 7:07
DED 20080307 4 2 CHOICE OF DR 3.5 8:47
PEN 20080307 7 8 YOWZA 3.5 9:14
PEN 20080307 8 2 CALL FOR BAC 3 9:38
CT 20080307 7 5 MISS LAYLEE 3.5 9:39
DED 20080307 6 1 CRIMSON ORE 4.5 9:39
MNR 20080307 8 1 SWIPER THE F 5 9:55
MNR 20080307 9 3 CAVALRY N' G 8 10:20
DED 20080307 8 4 MS. PINSHAW 8
DED 20080307 9 4 CAP'S PUNCH 4
DED 20080307 10 1 ANNIE BURTON 4.5


DATE wins RETURN PLAYS ROI
3/7/2008 0 0 4 0.00
3/5/2008 1 6.2 4 0.78
3/2/2008 3 23.6 17 0.69
3/1/2008 11 100.6 31 1.62
2/29/2008 0 0 12 0.00
2/28/2008 0 0 5 0.00
2/24/2008 11 99.6 41 1.21
2/23/2008 10 64.2 39 0.82
2/22/2008 7 46.6 27 0.86
2/21/2008 5 35.4 24 0.74
DATE 48 376.2 204 0.92

[formula_2002]

Oaklawn Park - Race 3
# Win Place Show
1 $14.20 $6.40 $4.00

so far, 2 wins in 8 plays return $20.

[formula_2002]

Hawthorne - Race 4
# Win Place Show
4 $7.80 $4.60 $2.80

so far 4 wins in 10 plays. $20 bet, $30.4 returned.

[formula_2002]

Santa Anita - Race 5 Chart
# Win Place Show
7 $10.20 $5.60 $4.20

Turf Paradise - Race 8 Chart
# Win Place Show
1 $11.80 $6.40 $4.00

[formula_2002]

Santa Anita - Race 7
# Win Place Show
7 $8.80 $5.00 $3.60

SO FAR:
8 WINS IN 17 PLAYS, $65.8 RETURNED FOR $34 PLAYED!!!

[formula_2002]

JUST CHECKED LTC'S OVERALL PERFORMANCE AS OF THIS TIME.
221 PLAYS, RETURNED A 1.00 ROI!!!

[formula_2002]

Penn National - Race 7
# Win Place Show
8 $5.40 $3.20 $4.20

SO FAR:
19 PLAYS, 9 WINS, ROI=1.87

HO HUM

[phatbastard]

nice work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[zerosky]

Hi Formula...

I understand from your posts that you have a large amount of 'prime power' stats... if its not to much trouble could you supply the following....

Average prime Power Number
The Range of the Numbers
Standard Deviation of the numbers

and if possible the Winning percentage of each number!

I am assembling my own morning line based on the prime power number and
these stats would be useful.

Thanks

zerosky

[formula_2002]

nice work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thanks

[formula_2002]

Hi Formula...

I understand from your posts that you have a large amount of 'prime power' stats... if its not to much trouble could you supply the following....

Average prime Power Number
The Range of the Numbers
Standard Deviation of the numbers

and if possible the Winning percentage of each number!

I am assembling my own morning line based on the prime power number and
these stats would be useful.

Thanks

zerosky

Best to do your own work.
But if you want me to explore options based on data contained in your Bris drf and xrd files, I'd be glad to extract and complile the data for you.
Best to have at least 1000 of each file...


Good Luck
PS dont believe anything that looks good within the 1st five years of your study ;)

[rokitman]

Best to do your own work.
But if you want me to explore options based on data contained in your Bris drf and xrd files, I'd be glad to extract and complile the data for you.
Best to have at least 1000 of each file...


Good Luck
PS dont believe anything that looks good within the 1st five years of your study ;)Heheh :ThmbUp:

[csmith]

Nice work

[zerosky]

Best to do your own work.
But if you want me to explore options based on data contained in your Bris drf and xrd files, I'd be glad to extract and complile the data for you.
Best to have at least 1000 of each file...

I understand your reluctance to share information, my initial study was based on your spreadsheet available on your website, so I thought maybe you would care to elaborate some of the stats, no mind.

Here’s what I’ve got so far from your stats (Prime Power) The odds ratio is calculated by computing the likelihood statistics

Rank Win% odds Ratio

1 31% 4.42
2 20% 2.04
3 14% 1.28
4 11% 0.86
5 8% 0.64
6 6% 0.44
7 5% 0.34
8 4% 0.25
9 3% 0.22

Using these numbers you can compute an odds line based upon the number of starters

As an example these are the rankings for the Gotham with the calculated oddsline,

I am aware of the many deficiencies of this approach, hence my request for information regarding the actual numbers as opposed to the rankings.


1.Saratoga Russell 5/2
2.Roman Emperor 8/1
3.Laysh Laysh Laysh 10/1
4.Giant Moon 12/1

The field 15/1 Bar

[formula_2002]

Nice work
thanks Cliff..

[formula_2002]

I understand your reluctance to share information, my initial study was based on your spreadsheet available on your website, so I thought maybe you would care to elaborate some of the stats, no mind.

Here’s what I’ve got so far from your stats (Prime Power) The odds ratio is calculated by computing the likelihood statistics

Rank Win% odds Ratio

1 31% 4.42
2 20% 2.04
3 14% 1.28
4 11% 0.86
5 8% 0.64
6 6% 0.44
7 5% 0.34
8 4% 0.25
9 3% 0.22

Using these numbers you can compute an odds line based upon the number of starters

As an example these are the rankings for the Gotham with the calculated oddsline,

I am aware of the many deficiencies of this approach, hence my request for information regarding the actual numbers as opposed to the rankings.


1.Saratoga Russell 5/2
2.Roman Emperor 8/1
3.Laysh Laysh Laysh 10/1
4.Giant Moon 12/1

The field 15/1 Bar
I wish you better luck than I have had.
I've tried Standard deviations
z-scores
gaps
tried to compute odds lines.
and thats just the begining

the best thing is to be LUCKY!! :)

[zerosky]

I wish you better luck than I have had.
I've tried Standard deviations
z-scores
gaps
tried to compute odds lines.
and thats just the begining

the best thing is to be LUCKY!! :)

Thanks, for the reply, I realise that the inital odds line is only the first step to a more truly representative line,
but I was looking for a standed base from which to build, I currently use the morning line