PDA

View Full Version : Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week


john del riccio
03-05-2008, 05:49 AM
The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Louisiana Derby this saturday at FG are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

dylbert
03-05-2008, 07:50 AM
Thanks for Race of the Week -- Louisiana Derby plus bonus Fair Grounds Oaks! I am attending again this year and hope to see some PA members there.

Laissez les bons temp rouler!

john del riccio
03-05-2008, 08:00 AM
Thanks for Race of the Week -- Louisiana Derby plus bonus Fair Grounds Oaks! I am attending again this year and hope to see some PA members there.

Laissez les bons temp rouler!

Not much of a bonus...its a 4 horse field. 600k purse and only four 3yo fillies are
entered....that is really odd.

John

DanG
03-05-2008, 08:48 AM
Thanks for Race of the Week -- Louisiana Derby plus bonus Fair Grounds Oaks! I am attending again this year and hope to see some PA members there.

Laissez les bons temp rouler!
Bonjour Dylbert!

I’m trying to talk some people into invading your great part of the country Saturday. Save a table at Cafe Du Monde and some Beignets for us!!!

Sorry about the drift John. My brother used to live there and I LOVE that part of our country. :ThmbUp:


http://www.american.com/graphics/2007/march-april-2007/new-orleans/Cafe%20Du%20Monde.JPG

john del riccio
03-05-2008, 09:25 AM
Bonjour Dylbert!

I’m trying to talk some people into invading your great part of the country Saturday. Save a table at Cafe Du Monde and some Beignets for us!!!

Sorry about the drift John. My brother used to live there and I LOVE that part of our country. :ThmbUp:


http://www.american.com/graphics/2007/march-april-2007/new-orleans/Cafe%20Du%20Monde.JPG

Dan,

I'm still trying to figure out how to get to your neck of the woods for the TB Derby....

John

DanG
03-05-2008, 09:57 AM
Dan,

I'm still trying to figure out how to get to your neck of the woods for the TB Derby....

John

Give me some notice John if you can make it.

GaryG
03-05-2008, 01:38 PM
Save a table at Cafe Du Monde and some Beignets for us!!! Don't ever try to save them for later....:eek:

DanG
03-05-2008, 02:20 PM
Don't ever try to save them for later....:eek:
LOL Gary…

Leave them out for a couple days and they do make great hockey pucks!

classhandicapper
03-05-2008, 04:49 PM
The Louisiana Derby came up pretty good this year. Some decent prospects in this race.

dylbert
03-05-2008, 07:27 PM
Don't ever try to save them for later....:eek:Ditto... beignets & cafe au lait are for immediate consumption and enjoyment. Nothing says delicious like confectioners' sugar all over you and your clothing!

john del riccio
03-06-2008, 02:45 PM
STEVIL looks a little weak in here. However, Zito is on fire and the blinkers are added for his first two turn try which also happens to be his first stakes try. Still eligible for a nw1x ?

MY PAL CHARLIE is improving having won two in a row. He was right on a relatively slow pace when breaking his nw1x condition as the even money favorite last out; the pace will likely be more taxing today

PYRO has been talked about at nauseum. His last race was superb, he's worked a solid 6f since and draws well.

J BE K will certainly insure an honest pace. he is 2-2 sprinting, trained by Baffert, gets his 3rd solid rider in as many races, and has trained very well for his two turn debut.

UNBRIDLE VICAR ran a uch improved race last out but must pick up 6 lbs off that effort and comes from low percentage connections.

TALE OF EKATI was interesting going into the BC race vs. PYRO but didn't fire. Was it the two turn ? off track ? or wide trip ? To say that he has been training well at PMM would be an understatement as his last five works have almost all been bullets.

BLACKBERRY ROAD was stopped repeatedly while trying to find room to run last out and gets a new rider today in Albarado.

YANKEE BRAVO has raced on turf and Polytrack in his only two USA starts; both in stakes company and shown no workouts on dirt; hard to gauge what he will do on a dirt surface.

MAJESTIC WARRIOR draws widest of all and keeps Gomez up. After an excellent 7f effort at SAR he came up empty in the Champagne at BEL and was given some time off. He is making his two turn debut, racing outside of NY for the first time and ships up from Florida.

Tom
03-06-2008, 03:29 PM
Dan,

I'm still trying to figure out how to get to your neck of the woods for the TB Derby....

John

I met him there last year - it was a great time! Everyone was so big!?!

bellsbendboy
03-06-2008, 10:02 PM
Just to add our two cents on what looks a pole the best Derby prep so far. Agree with your take and will be looking at four colts. In post postition order;


PYRO

Pulpit homebred packs a genuine, big time, late kick and ALWAYS shows up. The Risen Star an awesome display, but the water much deeper here and spring sophomores picking up six pounds are historically, often vulnerable.

Positives a plenty nonetheless, and after working competitively with the freaky Curlin, Pyro has had three works since his "caboose to commander" Risen Star coming out party. Seems like yesterday; but it was four weeks ago. In the interim and under the guidance of the incredible Assmussen, who is in a Tiger Woods like zone, the first work was nine days after that race, normal for this barn, but at five panels, unheard of for this outfit. The work featured a wrong way, loose horse and Pyro never turned a hair, ( a picture on Brisnet .com Handicappers edge is stiil up and clearly shows a composed, well balanced race horse). The next work was with 4yo Zanjero and the duo finished up together flying the last quarter in :24 flat with Pyro well in hand under Dominic Terry. Yet it was the last work a solo half with nothing on it that impressed his trainer and when Assmussen's happy with his horses they usually romp....

J Be K

A huge threat to take these wire to wire. The VERY volatile Kent D. can get one to settle and the move from three eighths 12/27 to five poles only six days later very telling, especially with foot to the fire, former trainer.

Tale Of Ekati
Majestic Warrior

Both homebred colts REEK of class, are in the hands of terrific, venerable, non-pressured conditioners, and are two of six or seven possible Kentucky Derby winners. The former, 'Ekati' was trained to the minute for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then the volcanic jock worked him in some :45 and change five days before the race possibly costing this one the eclipse. The "Warrior" was even money in the Champagne against War Pass and has worked nicely for his three year old debut. Either colt could very well be a salty future bet as they figure a bit short for this.... but VERY, VERY dangerous the first Saturday in May. BBB

Robert Fischer
03-06-2008, 10:32 PM
I'm not excited about this race right now, although it has potential to be a good race if a lot of things work out.

Im not crazy about considering a 8.5 furlong race as a top prep.

Blackberry Road is a cut below and albarado doesn't help in this case ...

We know Pyro is a pretty solid little horse with a good turn of foot, but this track & distance doesn't really ask him anything new.

Unbridled Vicar is a really nice grade3/allowance horse who seems to be consistent.

The race could really be limited to those two if nothing else turns out.

J Be K is the most interesting of the "unknowns":eek:, and he should get 8.5 if he is any kind of sprinter...

Tale of Ekati is out of tale of the cat and isn't bred for the derby even with the classy damside. Tagg is reasonably hot this season and it is only 8.5 so this one could possibly add to the mix...

Majestic Warrior could easily be finished , but we are all rooting for him to show some life again....

Yankee Bravo is entered on the wrong surface and distance. How in the world is he 4-1 ml with the speed J be K at 12-1 :sleeping:

Hank
03-06-2008, 10:59 PM
Beware of Majestic warrior, the very conservative Mott chosing this tough spot for his return has my spider sense tingling big time.

Kelso
03-07-2008, 12:42 AM
Beware of Majestic warrior


A Steinbrenner horse, so I hope Yankee Bravo kicks his rump. :jump:

classhandicapper
03-07-2008, 06:17 PM
I think Pyro deserves to be the favorite, but he probably won't represent good betting value. He already beat some of these horses with the worst of the pace set up and he figures to at least get a little more pace than that today with J Be K in the race. We also know he can run a lot faster than that based on last year. This will be his 2nd start of this year and he should be a bit sharper. His running style is the only potential flaw.

Majestic Warrior started out looking like a terrific prospect, but I think his Hopeful might have been a tad overrated. I thought he got a good pace set up in that race when Ready's Image and Mainonides went at it a little in a 4 horse field. He was injured after that. If it wasn't for the connections, I probably would key againt this horse in the exactas due to the injury, layoff, and my suspicions he wasn't quite as good as people thought last year. But given it's Mott, a very good race is not out of the question. Neither is a lot of development over the next few races.

Tale of Ekati is another off the layoff that fits well in this spot. He's another good prospect, but I think it's likely he won't be 100% yet either.

J Be K has a mixture of positive and negatives going for him. That was not an especially strong ALW field he beat last out and he will stretching out, going two turns, and meeting quality horses for the first time. That's a lot of question marks. On the flip side he figures to shake loose and control the pace. This is the kind of horse I usually let the track dictate what to do with. If the track seems to be playing speed and the price decent, I'll use him a little. If the track seems to be playing to outside closers and the horse is bet heavy, I'd be more apt to leave him out. If it's somewhere in between, I'm screwed. ;)

I don't know what to do with a horse like Yankee Bravo. He's been running on turf and Tapeta. He doesn't look fast enough yet, but he has a really nice kick and his WO line looks like he's set for a much improved effort if he likes dirt. I am just clueless as to whether he will like dirt. I could never key on a horse like this (especially at short odds), but I'd be reluctant to leave him out totally at a decent price because I think he's set for an improved effort.

IMHO if there is any value in the race, it might be among one of the other horses coming out of the Risen Star. That pace was so slow, I doubt either Blackberry Road or Unbridled Vicar delivered their best possible figure that day. But because they got trounced by Pyro, they will probably be overlooked totally. If Pyro gets a clean trip and fires another top effort neither should be able to beat him, but one or the other "could" fill out the exacta or triple and help juice it up a little.

As always, my final decision will be dependent on the prices, how the track is playing etc.... At this point, I would say a pass is most likely because I can't see myself keying against Pyro and I don't have a really strong positive or negative feeling about any of the others.

classhandicapper
03-07-2008, 06:35 PM
I am waiting patiently to make a very big bet against Indian Blessing eventually, but I don't think tomorrow will be the day. So I am hoping she wins again and enhances her reputation further. To me, she is still a bit unrateable and is really more of a miler than a true distance horse. It's just a matter of time before she faces another quality speed or races on a tiring track at a distance and gets passed late by another quality horse. Proud Spell looks like that kind of horse, but tomorrow's 4 horse field is lacking in speed and IB looks like she will have no difficulty shaking loose from the rail here. The only way I'll take a stab tomorrow is if the track is playing to outside closers. This is more of a race to watch and hope for future bets.

john del riccio
03-08-2008, 03:34 PM
I beleive the key to this race is the OTHER colt trained by Steve Asmussen. Previously trained by Baffert, Zayat Stables moved this one to Assmussens care after an impressive debute score sprinting at the SPA. Assmussen waited almost 6 months to bring this one back and he caught a wet-fast seales racetrack here at the FG and won from the rail while being eyeballed early and taken in hand late. Is he in this race to insure a legit pace for PYRO ?

Well, PYRO didn't need a legit pace last out to run by the entire field in a blink of an eye so I don't think so.

The only horse with enough pace talent to run with J BE K early is TALE OF EKATI. They both were imprressive winners this past summer at SAR but ALE OF EKATI did do vs. much tough competition and also showed the ability to rate behind horses.

It would not surprise me if one of these two colts got the victory here because when only two evenly matched speed horses are in a race, typically one will make use of their "pace advantage", and get the job done.

Handicapping fundamentals like class & distance obviously favor PYRO. However, the goal for PYRO is the first saturday in May, so, if there is one race when he may be "excused" from running a huge one, it may be today. PYRO will likely have one more prep at 1 1/8 miles before the big day,
so he may not be fully cranked up for a blowout effort today.

Even though TALE OF EKATI is more accomplished than J BE K, and has shown the ability to win fresh (maiden score and Futurity win), the ML of 12-1 on J BE K is unjustified and I will take a wack.

J BE K
TALE OF EKATI
PYRO
MAJESTIC WARRIOR

Good Luck,
John