Odds Manipulation

[cj's dad]

Scenario:

Second odds posting- a runner at 8/1 ML is bet down to 9/5
Bettors take notice and this runner draws additional attention.
ML faves odds are up from 2/1 to say 4/1
Post time approaches and the 8/1 ML is hanging at 9/5 or lower
The fav looks like a good bet at inflated odds.
I play the ML fav @ 4/1 or 9/2
2 mins before post the 8/1 ML starts creeping up and by post time is at maybe 5/1
The ML choice drops to say 2/1 or 9/5

Question is this: "are the whales manipulating the public by making large early wagers then cancelling these wagers prior to post to influence the odds on the horse they actually wanted to bet on from the start"?

[HUSKER55]

Probably not. Offshore accounts close the betting two minutes prior to race time to send the bets they aren't going to cover to the track, at least that is what mine told me. (something about hubs and relays????)

I do not know for sure but, I would think that "whales" bet through different channels. Otherwise they would be winning back their own money less the take.

Just MHO

husker55 :)

[Premier Turf Club]

Question is this: "are the whales manipulating the public by making large early wagers then cancelling these wagers prior to post to influence the odds on the horse they actually wanted to bet on from the start"?

Obviously, I can't say with certainty for an individual whale, but it is unlikely this is happening, certainly not off track where most of them play. Host tracks will shut you down in a heartbeat without any warning for a high level of cancel activity. We have very, very strict policies and review each and every cancelled wager (it doesn't happen that much). My guess is all other ADWs have similar policies.

[njcurveball]

My guess is all other ADWs have similar policies.

On 4NJBETS you cannot cancel any wagers on-line. You can call up and request your wager be canceled. I don't know if they keep track of how many times someone calls. I usually "eat" the bet if I make a mistake. I did call once when I transposed my race numbers and they canceled the bets for me and were very polite about it.

Jim

[eastie]

ML faves who open up twice what they should be are being bet dead and usually endup running that way. All the stooges see these horses overlaid with 3 minutes to post and then the mook money starts pouring in. The horse who takes the early money and drifts up at the end after all the people in the know are down is the live horse. Follow the money and you will see it all the time.For each race I make a "live" line if a horse is 15-1 in the book, I might make his live line around 8-1. If he opens (first flash) single digits, he's live, If he opens 20 or more, he's dead.....if a horse is 2-1 bok and I make his live line 6-5 and he opens 3-1, there is something fishy. He might end up 6-5, but the chances of him winning are slim. The money is consistantly right. First Flash is the most important one. Horses who are bet dead in the second half of the double when checking the will pays are also good ones to avoid.

[DanG]

Host tracks will shut you down in a heartbeat without any warning for a high level of cancel activity.
That’s my understanding also Ian…

BTW: You have to love anyone with your education and investment background quoting Joey Ramone in their posts! Not taking yourself too seriously is an admirable trait in this crazy game. :ThmbUp:

[oddsmaven]

I watch the the tote movement closely for NYRA races...I can't say it's never happened, as I don't play everday, but I haven't seen anything overly suspicious that is similar to what you've described...when I say suspicious, I mean to me, because I have a solid handle projecting likely odds and knowing what types of horses are going to attract way more early betting than the odds they end up with...indeed 8:1 line horses can open up as chalk and then fade to 5:1, but those always fit my pre-race expectations or reasonably close to it...I wouldn't discount the possibility, but am just saying I haven't seen it in NY.

[northerndancer]

More times than not at you non premier tracks this is done right at the track....... an owner or trainer or someone connected with the horse goes up with a voucher and bets $500 to win (advanced wager) then the original wager is cancelled prior to the start of the race right at the track.

The Blue Whales (the largest of the whales) will place a majority of their wagers via a computer assisted mechanism this allows all subjectivity to be taken out of the process. The large whales do not want any manipulation of the pools as there protocol depends on value.

IMO manipulation is going on at the track level and not the off site outlets..... plus the off site outlets are in such a dog fight just to keep access to signals therefore they would not risk allowing their account holders to abuse the cancellation process.

[oddsmaven]

ML faves who open up twice what they should be are being bet dead and usually endup running that way. All the stooges see these horses overlaid with 3 minutes to post and then the mook money starts pouring in. The horse who takes the early money and drifts up at the end after all the people in the know are down is the live horse. Follow the money and you will see it all the time.For each race I make a "live" line if a horse is 15-1 in the book, I might make his live line around 8-1. If he opens (first flash) single digits, he's live, If he opens 20 or more, he's dead.....if a horse is 2-1 bok and I make his live line 6-5 and he opens 3-1, there is something fishy. He might end up 6-5, but the chances of him winning are slim. The money is consistantly right. First Flash is the most important one. Horses who are bet dead in the second half of the double when checking the will pays are also good ones to avoid.

In general I would agree with some of your "smart money" opinions (for other reasons), but there's a lot more going in the opening flash that is foolish and not smart...for instance, some maiden that is 0-14 and has been the beaten favorite a few times because he ran some seconds will often open up great, even if he's going up in class with no chance...and there are several other situations where a horse with a terrible win chance, appropriately listed as a longshot will be a (predictable, not surprising) candidate for some early betting....it would not be wise to bet them off of that early flash.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Don't you know horserace bettors are very insecure so many wait until the last minute trying to find "value" but are not good enough handicappers, so they "play it safe" and bet the M/l down until it is an overlay? Check the Ca fairs and you will see it very often. Also I see many backside workers betting early, probably on their own horses.'"When in doubt, bet the overlay".

[eastie]

In general I would agree with some of your "smart money" opinions (for other reasons), but there's a lot more going in the opening flash that is foolish and not smart...for instance, some maiden that is 0-14 and has been the beaten favorite a few times because he ran some seconds will often open up great, even if he's going up in class with no chance...and there are several other situations where a horse with a terrible win chance, appropriately listed as a longshot will be a (predictable, not surprising) candidate for some early betting....it would not be wise to bet them off of that early flash.

your premise is correct in some ways, but this theory kind of goes back to Godfather II. After they try to kill him, When Micheal feeds that line of bull to Hagen about becoming the Don cause Fredo is weak and stupid. He doesn't know what happened , but he's following his fathers advice on thinking the way the people around you think. He;s trying to figure it out. If you are a smart bettor you will figure it out. You're not going to rush up to bet on some 0-14 money burning loser because he opens live. But some guy who is supposed to be 25-1 and open 8 before drifting up to 15 is the kind of guy one looks for. Also certain trainers...when the money shows they run ( scott schwatrz, Karacoran lately, Kieran Mac.) That Kiln Creek guy who opened dead at 5-1 and closed at 6-5 and ran lousy. It's almost like they know. The money in New York tells a ton.

[Kelso]

they "play it safe" and bet the M/l down until it is an overlay?


Ken,
I'm confused. Did you really mean what is highlighted above? How does putting money on a horse help create an overlay? It works the opposite way, no?

[skate]

Scenario:

Second odds posting- a runner at 8/1 ML is bet down to 9/5
Bettors take notice and this runner draws additional attention.
ML faves odds are up from 2/1 to say 4/1
Post time approaches and the 8/1 ML is hanging at 9/5 or lower
The fav looks like a good bet at inflated odds.
I play the ML fav @ 4/1 or 9/2
2 mins before post the 8/1 ML starts creeping up and by post time is at maybe 5/1
The ML choice drops to say 2/1 or 9/5

Question is this: "are the whales manipulating the public by making large early wagers then cancelling these wagers prior to post to influence the odds on the horse they actually wanted to bet on from the start"?


Sometimes

[Pace Cap'n]

Ken,
I'm confused. Did you really mean what is highlighted above? How does putting money on a horse help create an overlay? It works the opposite way, no?

It helps to speak "Kenwood".

[juanepstein]

any track that posts 7/1 or 9/1 shots should be watched.

7/1 and 9/1 is a signal for horses that are live and have a excellent chance of winning. retama park is notorious for this.

sounds crazy?!?!?

tonight- woodbine harness

1st- #3 finishline invader 7/1......already down to 3/1
3rd- #1 search mission 7/1
4th- #1 breeze knoll ty 7/1
.......#7 englebert 7/1
6th- #3 licorice twist
........#5 single step 7/1
7th- #6 dillman 7/1
.......#8 valentin elite 7/1
8th- #1 mighty gg 7/1
9th- #9 noellas desire 7/1
10th- #6 in shining armor 7/1
.........#7 dragons begone 7/1
11th- #2 southwind academy 7/1

good luck!

[dutchboy]

It seems to me that a lot of horses that are 6-1 morning line or close to 6-1 on a computer generated odds line seem to be profitable.

Never had the time or energy to track them so it may be selective memory.

[thespaah]

Obviously, I can't say with certainty for an individual whale, but it is unlikely this is happening, certainly not off track where most of them play. Host tracks will shut you down in a heartbeat without any warning for a high level of cancel activity. We have very, very strict policies and review each and every cancelled wager (it doesn't happen that much). My guess is all other ADWs have similar policies.Ok..Got a question...How does one "cancel" a wager once it has been made? Iti smy understanding that once a wager is is confirmed(over the net) or the teller punches the buttons and collects the cash or if the bettor uses a SAM, once he/she hits the send or make bet or whatever the button says, those wagers are final..SO what gives?

[njcurveball]

the teller punches the buttons and collects the cash or if the bettor uses a SAM, once he/she hits the send or make bet or whatever the button says, those wagers are final..SO what gives?

In NJ at the tracks, you can simply walk up to a machine, put the ticket in, and then press cancel.

You can even leave the ticket in the machine and watch the horses load and cancel as late as that.

Jim

[kenwoodallpromos]

Ken,
I'm confused. Did you really mean what is highlighted above? How does putting money on a horse help create an overlay? It works the opposite way, no?
I meant "underlay"! My ming does everything to possible to resist thinking about underlays!LOL!!

[thespaah]

In NJ at the tracks, you can simply walk up to a machine, put the ticket in, and then press cancel.

You can even leave the ticket in the machine and watch the horses load and cancel as late as that.

Jimthen the betor has not actually made a bet..So the wager would not show up on the tote board, because it was never made. IS that not correct?

[SMOO]

any track that posts 7/1 or 9/1 shots should be watched.

7/1 and 9/1 is a signal for horses that are live and have a excellent chance of winning. retama park is notorious for this.

sounds crazy?!?!?

tonight- woodbine harness

1st- #3 finishline invader 7/1......already down to 3/1
3rd- #1 search mission 7/1
4th- #1 breeze knoll ty 7/1
.......#7 englebert 7/1
6th- #3 licorice twist
........#5 single step 7/1
7th- #6 dillman 7/1
.......#8 valentin elite 7/1
8th- #1 mighty gg 7/1
9th- #9 noellas desire 7/1
10th- #6 in shining armor 7/1
.........#7 dragons begone 7/1
11th- #2 southwind academy 7/1

good luck!
Not to pick on you, but none of those horses won...

[juanepstein]

Not to pick on you, but none of those horses won...

imformation was taken down and the odds were set before the rain came. track condition came into play last night.

patience my friend, patience.

[njcurveball]

then the betor has not actually made a bet..So the wager would not show up on the tote board, because it was never made. IS that not correct?

That is not "not correct" and Harness players will understand better since many still try to do this, especially in trots.

You buy the ticket at either a teller or a machine. Let's say it is $500 to win on Achy Breaky Horse.

When the horses are behind the gate, you put your ticket in the machine and the cancel prompt comes up. As the horses load or roll behind the gate, you notice Achy Breaky Horse is acting bad or breaking.

You simply press cancel and the money is out of the pool and back in your pocket. Of course if he wins, you are kicking your own butt for weeks!

IN a small pool like Freehold or Rosecroft, this could make the odds change as the horses move around the track.

I have seen it done a number of times and when Garden State first got their machines, there was 7 seconds to do this or bet. It was a fight to get close to one when a race at Freehold was going off.

Jim

[classhandicapper]

I can tell you for certain that cancelling large wagers in the last 5 minutes of betting is a very big "NO NO" for betting clerks at NYC OTBs. It is probably an issue elsewhere for the very reason you describe. They are trying to avoid odds manipulation. Typically, if you try to cancel a large wager that late you need manager approval (at least those are the supposed rules). By the time that happens the race is off. :lol:

[classhandicapper]

Ok..Got a question...How does one "cancel" a wager once it has been made? Iti smy understanding that once a wager is is confirmed(over the net) or the teller punches the buttons and collects the cash or if the bettor uses a SAM, once he/she hits the send or make bet or whatever the button says, those wagers are final..SO what gives?

Clerks have the ability to cancel a wager, but many are very reluctant to do so because customers then start canceling bets whenever their horse's odds drop a little in the last few minutes and they no longer want them.

In theory, the only time a clerk should really cancel a bet is when he/she accidentally punches the wrong horse, race, track, or amount etc.... and they don't want to get stuck with the incorrect ticket because the customer does not want it.

Occasionally though, a clerk will cancel a wager made at a Sam machine or earlier in the betting for a customer he/she knows well and believes may have made an honest mistake. (Tips have a way of making clerks more willing to cancel bets ;) ) Very large bet cancels are an entirely different issue.