View Full Version : Who wins Santa Anita Handicap
theratpac
02-28-2008, 03:30 PM
Awesome Gem with Flores, I know that Montery Jazz is the hot horse now, but?:ThmbUp:
Wow...I didn't even realize it was time for that race. Shows how far it has fallen.
The Bit
02-28-2008, 11:07 PM
Awesome Gem doesn't want to pass that final horse.
john del riccio
02-29-2008, 05:36 AM
Someone please clue me in on where Montery Jazz's last race came from. Was it the surface, did they fix a physical problem, or a new form of "medicine".
John
Who wins Santa Anita Handicap
Who cares?
Who wins Santa Anita Handicap
Who cares?
A lone hand rises from the back of the room…
I do Tom! :D
http://www.ronalfy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/hand_raising.jpg
Someone please clue me in on where Montery Jazz's last race came from. Was it the surface, did they fix a physical problem, or a new form of "medicine".
John
John…
He caught a MAJOR speed bias that day. It was the Sinister Minister type / Keeneland freak-out number that will be tough to ever duplicate. You need far more stamina now two-turns at SA and he is virtually a run-off.
Hmmm…I just realized I mentioned “Freak-Out” and there’s a horse named “Zappa” in the race…:D
OTM Al
02-29-2008, 09:15 AM
If you like betting into 14 horse fields I think you should like it. Lots of opportunity in this race
DJofSD
02-29-2008, 09:17 AM
Hmmm…I just realized I mentioned “Freak-Out” and there’s a horse named “Zappa” in the race
Dan -- see my avatar for more Zappa.
Dan -- see my avatar for more Zappa.
All right DJ! :ThmbUp:
A tip of the cap to you this morning from the good Captain…
http://www.freewebs.com/teejo/electridonations.jpg
DJofSD
02-29-2008, 09:34 AM
Boy, oh, boy, I haven't listen to Capt Beefheart in a long time -- of course, all that I have is on LPs, but that's a different story.
whyhorseofcourse
02-29-2008, 11:02 AM
Monterey Jazz!
toetoe
02-29-2008, 12:49 PM
I am a huge Zappa fan --- I think I touted him (and one other ?) in the Grade II he won --- but I think Awesome Gem has more big races left in him, and will be a great bet. If AG wins, aw shucks :blush: . If he loses, call me Jonathan Hardoon. What's that ? You al-READY call me that ? WHAT ? Sometimes you guys even call me Fred Edelstein ? Thanks a LOT !! :(
FlyinLate
02-29-2008, 01:33 PM
I like the morning line on Student Council. He needed that last race and should be in much better condition this time around. :ThmbUp:
phatbastard
02-29-2008, 01:34 PM
tiago
bigmack
02-29-2008, 02:03 PM
Boy, oh, boy, I haven't listen to Capt Beefheart in a long time -- of course, all that I have is on LPs, but that's a different story.
Capt. Jack (Hi-Jack), reporting for duty.
His formal education was a half a day in kindergarten then he was kicked out. Gifted in sculpting he was pent-up in a room to sculpt hour after hour as a kid. I give you Captain Beefheart with Tropical Hot Dog Night
http://s257.photobucket.com/albums/hh213/pacevids1/?action=view¤t=688.flv
toetoe
02-29-2008, 02:19 PM
Big Mac,
Where's the love for that consummate horseman, Captain Hoofheart ? And what of Danny Templeton, tomb raider ?
Kelso
02-29-2008, 02:29 PM
A lone hand rises from the back of the room…
I expected a Little Johnny Badass joke to follow. Greatly disappointed. :(
juanepstein
02-29-2008, 05:02 PM
that horse gomez is riding.
Wickel
02-29-2008, 05:27 PM
Tiago and Mikie by many.
oddsmaven
02-29-2008, 07:15 PM
Many here are proponents of pace being vital, so isn't this a clear case of one horse standing out as speed? Who can pressure Monterey Jazz here? Air Commander? Zappa? It would hardly seem so. And to really make the case , he is coming off a smashing victory on top of that, so wouldn't that type of form be tough to deal with? There isn't anyone else entered coming off anything resembling a handy score.
I'll concede that here's a horse who has done a lot of sprinting with just the one 9 furlong effort where he got loose, so 10 panels would not normally be ideal. But to my way of thinking, the jock can throttle down his speed, still establish a clear lead, not expend much energy and then sprint to the wire in the stretch.
And the price shouldn't be bad. Tiago is popular enough to be favored and others will take their share, so this looks pretty good to me.
JustRalph
02-29-2008, 10:52 PM
Wow! Very competitive race .........
http://www.justralph.com/big_cap08.jpg
JustRalph
02-29-2008, 11:26 PM
Just a note. That post above is from Equisim. No tweaking at all. Not even surface factors are played into the post. Just raw speed figures compared within the program. No allowance for distance or turf versus dirt etc.
FYI
Si2see
03-01-2008, 12:08 AM
Go Between for the win :ThmbUp:
Looks like a nice race to Handicap. Looks like Tiago may be overbet a little but I see him and Go Between as the two beat. I'm really looking at Great Hunters pattern. Not sure if he's matured, but if he has that's my exacta horse. I'll watch the odds on the other two.. Tough distance and race for Monteray but he'll keep the race honest.
Zappa, wow that takes you back. Next thing you know I'll be taking out Pink Floyd's Dard Side of The Moon and watching the Wizard of Oz.... ;)
Burls
03-01-2008, 03:12 AM
Call me crazy, but I like Celtic Dreamin in this one.
I just hope Solis keeps him a little bit closer to the pace this time.
I think Celtic Dreamin will probably come off at fairly generous odds as well.
DrunkenHorseplayer
03-01-2008, 03:14 AM
I'll take Big Booster at what figures to be a nice price.
NY BRED
03-01-2008, 04:41 AM
Flores switches to Awesome, both horses are trained by Dollasse
Seems obvious unless the track favors speed, and Montery ends up
at 5-1 or better...:)
theratpac
03-01-2008, 06:51 AM
Many here are proponents of pace being vital, so isn't this a clear case of one horse standing out as speed? Who can pressure Monterey Jazz here? Air Commander? Zappa? It would hardly seem so. And to really make the case , he is coming off a smashing victory on top of that, so wouldn't that type of form be tough to deal with? There isn't anyone else entered coming off anything resembling a handy score.
I'll concede that here's a horse who has done a lot of sprinting with just the one 9 furlong effort where he got loose, so 10 panels would not normally be ideal. But to my way of thinking, the jock can throttle down his speed, still establish a clear lead, not expend much energy and then sprint to the wire in the stretch.
And the price shouldn't be bad. Tiago is popular enough to be favored and others will take their share, so this looks pretty good to me.
Montery Jazz absolutely loved the hard freeway that was called cushion track at Santa Anita, however, doesn't get a chance to run over it this time as Ian Pearse, and the Pro-Ride people, have turned it into Del Mar North. The track is much more spongier than its recent synthetic kin. Jazz may not have the racetrack in his favor and thus at a short price he may be a horse to play against. At least I plan to.
#6 Monterrey Jazz: I may be reading too much into it, but I’m very much trying to beat him in here. All true with the pace scenario and his line of improvement…but…That last race was right before the “Australian Cowboy” came to town and this surface is NOT the one he wired his last on with that huge #.
This was the end of that bizarre stretch when 6f in 1:07 and 7f in 120 and change was almost routine. In the 10 two-turn races before his super fast 9f only 1 animal came from further than 2L. Contrast that with now where 5 of the last 10 routes have been more than 4L back. He caught his track and freaked; I'm betting the 10f, better company, more demanding surface (and hopefully the betting favorite) will work against him today.
#10 Heatseeker:The “Now” horse and should fire big.
#11 Student Council: Here’s the “leap of faith” animal for me. At >10-1 I’m willing to forgive the trip to Japan and the 1st start back after 70+ days (with 3p of ground loss on both turns btw). He’s a true 10f animal, 50% winner on synthetics and his “A” race puts him right there.
True, there’s no Tiznow’s or John Henry’s this year, but from a betting stand point it’s excellent!
BOL!!!
Boris
03-01-2008, 08:09 AM
God bless those of you that have a handle on this race. I'm using the ALL button in the middle leg of the Pick 3. War Monger seems to a Bet Your Lungs special for the lead off spot, and I've got the 1,4,9 batting clean up. I'd bet the #1 most likely iffin I had to.
Good luck
NY BRED
03-01-2008, 08:13 AM
in addition to my earlier posting note that Craig Dollase worked both MJ and Ag within 2 days of each other at 6fg.
MJ worked 2/23 1:11 3/5 >. BG 1/16
AG worked 2/21 1:11 3/5 h \. 1/18
weather conditions aside(haven't checked that out) Monetery's w/o
has me jumping:jump: .I'm hoping the horse doesn't bounce after hitting the
track record for this distance.
PS Flores record riding AG is 0-5 since 7/21/07, but in fairness, Flores
won with this horse on 10/25/06 :sleeping:
My only concern is the #1, with the Ramon /Frankel combo
which I'll be using in the tri's
grahors
03-01-2008, 08:16 AM
Go Between....Celtic.......Celtic.......Go between....Hmmmmmmm
Oh Montie, Montie...which door to choose?
GO BETWEEN
smokinjoe@bp
03-01-2008, 08:27 AM
#4 medici code for me...gl people
also like #12
oddsmaven
03-01-2008, 08:39 AM
Santa Anita is not a track I concentrate on despite my avatar...and neither is 'capping synthetic surfaces a habit...so I'm reading the comments about how the bias changed and I have to admit I don't like extreme bias and can't wait for them to get off the "inner" at Aqueduct...that said, I looked back at last week's SA charts and do see horses wiring the field (not counting turf), a couple of times every day...none of these races were 10 furlongs, but they included routes.
Maybe Monterey Jazz stole the Strub without pressure, but there may well be even less pressure today...and I gather an argument is that the track was so speed favoring, one should just toss the race...but I don't like to throw out last, particularly if it was still on a synthetic surface, albeit a changed one...I'd be inclined to hold the bias against him if he won a little less impressively or was facing other speed today, but I refuse to miss the forest to only see a good sized tree here (bias)...that was a helluva win and the pace scenario looks perfect for him.
I don't think Jazz will be bet heavy because of the distance and concerns over the surface...I believe at the distance, Tiago, looking to enjoy the stretch out will be a moderate favorite, then Jazz, then I would think Heatseeker looks good to be a solid 3rd choice or Awesome Gem who is pretty popular...Go Between looms too take a good chunk too, so I think Jazz can pay pretty well in terms of how sharp he looks.
If they're at his throat latch after a mile, he can collapse and end up last, but I envision a front running score.
Marshall Bennett
03-01-2008, 11:15 AM
~ Student Council ~ :cool:
46zilzal
03-01-2008, 11:50 AM
Too many questions: changing surfaces (turf to dirt, OLD Santa Anita to newer Santa Anita) etc...
Good race to watch, not bet.
keilan
03-01-2008, 12:12 PM
Heatseeker / Champs Elysees
toetoe
03-01-2008, 12:17 PM
smokinjoe,
Medici will be around 30/1, and his only rotten race was in the Indy Derby. No antipathy toward Astrodirt. Shot or no shot ? Shot, but again, insist on 30/1. :confused:
Hajck Hillstrom
03-01-2008, 12:22 PM
Call me crazy, but I like Celtic Dreamin in this one.Good Luck to you!
Celtic Dreamin is my selection in the Big Cap for the NHC Tour kickoff.
GaryG
03-01-2008, 12:27 PM
I'll take a shot with Heatseeker
sally
03-01-2008, 12:51 PM
Tiago at 1 1/4 mile--:)
DJofSD
03-01-2008, 01:18 PM
Seminole Native.
The Bit
03-01-2008, 01:30 PM
Big Booster
how cliche
03-01-2008, 02:42 PM
Some races are just too darn hard. This is one of them. On form I have the top two as Go Between and Heatseeker. On graphs those and Monterey Jazz are immediate tosses. The reason being that runners who post huge tops or negative #'s on the rubber return almost w/o fail to run poorly. Below those horses they all look rather samey on graphs and form alike. Too tough for me to gauge.
classhandicapper
03-01-2008, 03:05 PM
I think the key to the race is Monterey Jazz.
IMO, MJ was lightly raced and working well enough going into Strub to think that was a legitimately huge effort. He has continued to work well, but I'd be more inclined to try to beat him in this spot. Even if he holds his form (he is still working well) the SA strip has been playing more kindly to closers since it was altered than on the day he wired (though I don't think it was speed biased the day he won). In addition, he will be asked to stretch that speed for 10F. I think that's a lot to ask on this surface, but IMHO, his last race was the best performace by any of these horses lately.
After that it seems to me the race is quite wide open. The result is as likely to be a result of trip as it is who fires the best race.
In no special order:
Tiago, Big Booster, Awesone Gem, and Heatseeker all seem to have a good shot. Student Council, Celtic Dreamin, and Go Between are far from impossible. In addition it's hard to evaluate Champs Elysees on this surface, but he seems to fit on ability, is working well, and has trainer that knows what he is doing.
IMO, this race is all about price unless you have an angle that makes you feel certain one of these horses is more likely to fire his best shot today than the others.
Ted Craven
03-01-2008, 03:19 PM
I put my loonies on Zappa and Heatseeker in the kick-off to the current Pace and Cap contest.:jump:
Ted
riskman
03-01-2008, 03:34 PM
You could make a good case for nine horses in here. Lets go long and take :
4 MEDICI CODE -Need 15-1 and probably will get it.
This horse has done well since hitting the U.S. over a year ago. Medici placed first in the La Jolla H. (G2) and Del Mar Derby (G2) and was in the money in several stakes races, ie. Hollywood Derby G1. Medici did real well on synthetic tracks in Europe. Jockey Pedroza gets the call.
john del riccio
03-01-2008, 03:40 PM
As with most races the key to thi srace is likely to be the pace.
More specifically, who, if anyone, will run with MONTERY JAZZ ? The only other two horses that have a decent amount of early foot are AIR COMMANDER
and STUDENT COUNCIL. Neither of which have displayed the level of talent that MONTERY JAZZ did last out. Prior to MONTERY JAZZ's last race, his best finishes had been on turf. More of a concern is the number of abbreviated sprints in his PP's (over the turf). Given the skitzo nature of the SA cushioned track, and the nature of this horses race record BEFORE he ran a hole in the win last out, it makes sense to think he will not be able to reproduce the performance he just put forth despite the fact that he appears to be training well. Aaron gryder from post 14 will need to get AIR COMMANDER out of the gate and prominent from that post and will lilely be able to put just enough pressure on MONTERY JAZZ to make him earn it and that extra 1/8 mile in distance will not help his cause.
GO BETWEEN look interesting to me. He ran th erace of hi slife last out over the SA strip coming from well off the pace. He has races on grass at todays distance and further, and Gomez is always a plus.
I will take GO BETWEEN to win with HEAT SEKKER, AWESOME GEM, and STUDENT COUNCIL in the exotics. If MONTERY JAZZ runs his last race, he will be tough but there are enough reasons to think he will not be able to do so for this to be a reasonable play.
GOOD LUCK.
John
toetoe
03-01-2008, 04:08 PM
Riskman,
Oh, you'll get it,and much more. :cool:
Indulto
03-01-2008, 06:41 PM
I think the key to the race is Monterey Jazz.
IMO, MJ was lightly raced and working well enough going into Strub to think that was a legitimately huge effort. He has continued to work well, but I'd be more inclined to try to beat him in this spot. Even if he holds his form (he is still working well) the SA strip has been playing more kindly to closers since it was altered than on the day he wired (though I don't think it was speed biased the day he won). In addition, he will be asked to stretch that speed for 10F. I think that's a lot to ask on this surface, but IMHO, his last race was the best performace by any of these horses lately.
After that it seems to me the race is quite wide open. The result is as likely to be a result of trip as it is who fires the best race.
In no special order:
Tiago, Big Booster, Awesone Gem, and Heatseeker all seem to have a good shot. Student Council, Celtic Dreamin, and Go Between are far from impossible. In addition it's hard to evaluate Champs Elysees on this surface, but he seems to fit on ability, is working well, and has trainer that knows what he is doing.
IMO, this race is all about price unless you have an angle that makes you feel certain one of these horses is more likely to fire his best shot today than the others.Nice rundown, CH.
MJ has given no indication that his next race won't be even better than his last. To a lesser extent that's true of GB who by reference makes CD a horse to key at a price. Can't toss Tiago, AG, HS, and SC from any but the top slot. Added MC to the 3rd and 4th slots of my exotics.
InsideThePylons-MW
03-01-2008, 07:29 PM
Santa Anita Handicap
An event that once was something that the entire nation focused on is now an event that 99.99999% of the nation doesn't care one bit about.
I can't find it on TV anywhere, but I can find info-mercials on major networks right now. Amazing.
Dan Montilion
03-01-2008, 07:30 PM
#7 Zappa
Who wins?
I won't hazard a guess, but Go Between looked pretty good out there in the post parade.
toetoe
03-01-2008, 07:33 PM
I'm astonished that Medici Code is at 12/1. :eek:
Grits
03-01-2008, 07:42 PM
Heatseeker.
Simply put.
JustRalph
03-01-2008, 09:29 PM
Wow! Very competitive race .........
http://www.justralph.com/big_cap08.jpg
I would say it did pretty well out of the box
:ThmbUp: ...at 6-1 or better!
Who wins?
I won't hazard a guess, but Go Between looked pretty good out there in the post parade.
We always did make a pretty good team. ;)
Simply put.
Thanks. I love BETTING artificial surfaces.
sammy the sage
03-02-2008, 09:01 AM
good call by gary g as well.
nice job cj.
oddsmaven
03-02-2008, 09:10 AM
I loved Monterey Jazz here, and recorded my comments & emotions during the Big Cap:
Bust him right out Russell! (goes to the front) Hah! Look at him go. (opens up three). This is gonna be cake. Teach all of those PA folks a lesson. :D (in front by seven) I'm a freakin' genious . Ladies & gentlemen, Monterey Jazz has opened up a 12 length lead. Atta baby - ATTA BEBEE!! I knew he was gonna crush them. By God he'll win by twenty!! :jump: (the advantage has suddenly whittled to six) Come on Baze, that's enough of a breather! (they haven't reached the stretch yet & the lead is down to three) WIRE! WIRE!!!!!! Hold him together (being passed) Save the show!! - ahhh don't bother! :blush: (now they're going by in droves) :( .
(and Heatseeking wins) I knew it. I was gonna bet him. :liar:
Nice job... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
CJ, SiZsee, Sabe, Grahors, Keilan, Garyg,Ted Craven and John Del Riccio!
'Big Cap's all around...
http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/80/42/23504280.jpg
classhandicapper
03-02-2008, 10:29 AM
I loved Monterey Jazz here, and recorded my comments & emotions during the Big Cap:
Bust him right out Russell! (goes to the front) Hah! Look at him go. (opens up three). This is gonna be cake. Teach all of those PA folks a lesson. :D (in front by seven) I'm a freakin' genious . Ladies & gentlemen, Monterey Jazz has opened up a 12 length lead. Atta baby - ATTA BEBEE!! I knew he was gonna crush them. By God he'll win by twenty!! :jump: (the advantage has suddenly whittled to six) Come on Baze, that's enough of a breather! (they haven't reached the stretch yet & the lead is down to three) WIRE! WIRE!!!!!! Hold him together (being passed) Save the show!! - ahhh don't bother! :blush: (now they're going by in droves) :( .
(and Heatseeking wins) I knew it. I was gonna bet him. :liar:
That was pretty funny, but when I was watching the race I had an entirely different perspective.
I decided to leave Monterey Jazz out, spread around in the exotics, and make a couple of small win/place bets. As soon as MJ started to open up so prematurely, I knew I was a mortal lock to hit something unless a real shocker hit the board. Regardless of whether you think it was the horse or the jockey, that's not the way to win a 10F race on cushion.
I didn't want to be redundant, so I gave out the back half of the exacta. ;)
This had better not become a Ricky Bobby - Cal Naughton Jr type of thing!! :lol:
We always did make a pretty good team. ;)
I didn't want to be redundant, so I gave out the back half of the exacta. ;)
This had better not become a Ricky Bobby - Cal Naughton Jr type of thing!! :lol:
If you're not first, you're last. :D
If you're not first, you're last. :D
Shake~n~Bake!! :lol:
Si2see
03-02-2008, 10:43 PM
Nice job... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
CJ, SiZsee, Sabe, Grahors, Keilan, Garyg,Ted Craven and John Del Riccio!
'Big Cap's all around
Thanks DanG, Luckily I hit a $5 exacta, If Go Between would have got up for the win I would've had the exatca and $2 tri, but that is the way racing goes and it was a great race to watch
john del riccio
03-03-2008, 08:04 AM
Thanks DanG, Luckily I hit a $5 exacta, If Go Between would have got up for the win I would've had the exatca and $2 tri, but that is the way racing goes and it was a great race to watch
Don't get me going, I would have made out like a bandit had the order been reversed.
John
PS Frankels horse looked like he was full of run, watch him next out.
John
JustRalph
03-03-2008, 12:06 PM
Don't get me going, I would have made out like a bandit had the order been reversed.
John
PS Frankels horse looked like he was full of run, watch him next out.
John
I have been getting workout reports on Precious Kitten.........some pretty decent workouts........looks like Frankel is getting ready to go with this one too............this is one of my play back horses from post 12 in the Breeders cup. She is working in California/HOL
chickenhead
03-03-2008, 03:36 PM
I have been getting workout reports on Precious Kitten.........some pretty decent workouts........looks like Frankel is getting ready to go with this one too............this is one of my play back horses from post 12 in the Breeders cup. She is working in California/HOL
She won a G(?) at Hollywood a couple months ago at around 2-1 over Pletchers filly whose name slips my mind right now. I don't know if shes run any since, but shes already "back". FYI
Si2see
03-03-2008, 03:46 PM
She won a G(?) at Hollywood a couple months ago at around 2-1 over Pletchers filly whose name slips my mind right now. I don't know if shes run any since, but shes already "back". FYI
Precious Kitten is a very nice filly, I made some money on her when she was a young 3 year old, she beat Wait a While is the horse you are talking about
JustRalph
03-03-2008, 05:05 PM
She won a G(?) at Hollywood a couple months ago at around 2-1 over Pletchers filly whose name slips my mind right now. I don't know if shes run any since, but shes already "back". FYI
yeah, I remember that one now that you mention it. Didn't she win on front end? But it looks like he is winding her up again..........what race he is pointing at,,,,,,,who knows?
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