oddsmaven
02-28-2008, 10:42 AM
Since many bettors like to know what odds they are getting, I would like to share my knowledge in terms of a guide on what to look for in terms of late betting-odds direction.
I can only speak from the NYRA circuit that I follow, though I imagine this would mostly hold true elsewhere, though perhaps NY OTB (while still around) would contribute to some of these factors.
When the odds open up, certain traits will generally show and as the odds change, other typical factors influence the later play. I’ll simply split this up as early play & late play:
Dropping in class generally will generate late play; stepping up conversely – early play.
Inside posts: early play; extreme outside: late
Last an “unusually” good effort -early; Consistent horse coming off sub-par effort- late
Lots of races with few wins: early; Very few races: late
Stretching out particularly off closing effort: early; Shortening up distance: late
Here are some more traits that draw early money: an “entry”, a good jockey more-so if a favorable change or got the call (conversely if the jock hopped off to ride another, will open high), a big win or good 2nd. And of course we’ve seen that most longshots are mostly soaring at the end after starting lower.
One that draws lots of early money that I can’t explain but is true: Horses who’s names include a “person’s name”. Like Jumping Joe or Betty Boop. Or a silly sounding/catchy name. Plus venerable old campaigners - OTB players love those as well.
Other “late” money traits: Often a layed out horse or shipper. Some obvious things like someone getting in off the AE list. Most FAVORITES. Naturally someone getting pounded will draw momentum of late play, though I would look for common sense to prevail in the final flash, so the logical ones that look good on paper will generally keep dropping but if the late momentum seems inexplicable look for it to cool at the end. And then we have contenders who just plain opened high that end up getting driven down if too much of an overlay.
First time starters: the post position, jockey & “name” will affect as discussed. Good trainer and fast works will factor heavily into the equation with steady play. A lot of them that seem to win as a “good thing” tend to be tipped in the early money, rise a bit and then come down again late.
Trouble line: An obvious “taken” up in the stretch will get bet early, but maybe a wide trip darkening the form would get late play.
A big rule rule of thumb: any horse that looks obviously dangerous after a quick review will open up with play and those that look good only upon close examination will be popped at the end.
Some horses seem to open up “dead” on the board compared to how they look. Often a horse coming off a photo finish win will do that. People seem to hate that as if they think they might have nothing left now, but that doesn’t necessarily hold true. The horses that lost a photo usually do well early for some reason. Any who’s last race was slow even if they ran well, that will not bode well for early play, though they may take play later if too much of an overlay.
If a speed horse who lost ground is drawn outside another speed horse, they often open up “dead”. I’m not the best judge of pace scenario, so beyond that, am not sure how pace scenarios generally affects the early/late betting trends.
That’s a lot to digest so those haven’t dozed off half-way through this from overkill, congratulations :sleeping: . It’s not easy to confidently “know” what will happen with the late odds. There are all of these multiple factors and sometimes they will offset, but you will find these trends to hold overall.
I can only speak from the NYRA circuit that I follow, though I imagine this would mostly hold true elsewhere, though perhaps NY OTB (while still around) would contribute to some of these factors.
When the odds open up, certain traits will generally show and as the odds change, other typical factors influence the later play. I’ll simply split this up as early play & late play:
Dropping in class generally will generate late play; stepping up conversely – early play.
Inside posts: early play; extreme outside: late
Last an “unusually” good effort -early; Consistent horse coming off sub-par effort- late
Lots of races with few wins: early; Very few races: late
Stretching out particularly off closing effort: early; Shortening up distance: late
Here are some more traits that draw early money: an “entry”, a good jockey more-so if a favorable change or got the call (conversely if the jock hopped off to ride another, will open high), a big win or good 2nd. And of course we’ve seen that most longshots are mostly soaring at the end after starting lower.
One that draws lots of early money that I can’t explain but is true: Horses who’s names include a “person’s name”. Like Jumping Joe or Betty Boop. Or a silly sounding/catchy name. Plus venerable old campaigners - OTB players love those as well.
Other “late” money traits: Often a layed out horse or shipper. Some obvious things like someone getting in off the AE list. Most FAVORITES. Naturally someone getting pounded will draw momentum of late play, though I would look for common sense to prevail in the final flash, so the logical ones that look good on paper will generally keep dropping but if the late momentum seems inexplicable look for it to cool at the end. And then we have contenders who just plain opened high that end up getting driven down if too much of an overlay.
First time starters: the post position, jockey & “name” will affect as discussed. Good trainer and fast works will factor heavily into the equation with steady play. A lot of them that seem to win as a “good thing” tend to be tipped in the early money, rise a bit and then come down again late.
Trouble line: An obvious “taken” up in the stretch will get bet early, but maybe a wide trip darkening the form would get late play.
A big rule rule of thumb: any horse that looks obviously dangerous after a quick review will open up with play and those that look good only upon close examination will be popped at the end.
Some horses seem to open up “dead” on the board compared to how they look. Often a horse coming off a photo finish win will do that. People seem to hate that as if they think they might have nothing left now, but that doesn’t necessarily hold true. The horses that lost a photo usually do well early for some reason. Any who’s last race was slow even if they ran well, that will not bode well for early play, though they may take play later if too much of an overlay.
If a speed horse who lost ground is drawn outside another speed horse, they often open up “dead”. I’m not the best judge of pace scenario, so beyond that, am not sure how pace scenarios generally affects the early/late betting trends.
That’s a lot to digest so those haven’t dozed off half-way through this from overkill, congratulations :sleeping: . It’s not easy to confidently “know” what will happen with the late odds. There are all of these multiple factors and sometimes they will offset, but you will find these trends to hold overall.