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mountainman
02-27-2008, 02:22 PM
Does anyone have a breakdown on impact values based on time elapsed since last raced?

DanG
02-27-2008, 03:02 PM
Does anyone have a breakdown on impact values based on time elapsed since last raced?
Mark;

I’m sure someone is set up to give you that exact query, but in the mean time this HTR newsletter was interesting reading on layoffs.., (Starts on pg-8)

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

BillW
02-27-2008, 03:45 PM
From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

mountainman
02-27-2008, 04:03 PM
From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

Can you query your dbase for over and under 45 days, the period at which drf inserts the "layoff" line? (You are already on my xmas list.)

Jeff P
02-27-2008, 04:33 PM
Mark, Here's what I have at "The Mountain" (with first time starters removed) for the handful of days I've downloaded so far this year:
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: LT0

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2008\Q1_2008\pL_profile.txt)
Track: MNR

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 591.80 611.00 582.40
Bet -766.00 -766.00 -766.00
Gain -174.20 -155.00 -183.60

Wins 49 95 136
Plays 383 383 383
PCT .1279 .2480 .3551

ROI 0.7726 0.7977 0.7603
Avg Mut 12.08 6.43 4.28
By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999 0 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0 5 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5 10 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
10 15 -7.00 12.00 0.4167 1 6 .1667 1.3027
15 20 -3.60 10.00 0.6400 1 5 .2000 1.5633
20 25 -9.20 20.00 0.5400 1 10 .1000 0.7816
25 30 -25.80 42.00 0.3857 2 21 .0952 0.7444
30 35 4.40 82.00 1.0537 9 41 .2195 1.7158
35 40 -27.00 52.00 0.4808 3 26 .1154 0.9019
40 45 -66.80 114.00 0.4140 9 57 .1579 1.2342

45 50 66.00 128.00 1.5156 7 64 .1094 0.8549
50 55 -44.40 58.00 0.2345 3 29 .1034 0.8086
55 60 56.80 100.00 1.5680 8 50 .1600 1.2506
60 65 -12.80 32.00 0.6000 3 16 .1875 1.4656
65 70 -30.00 30.00 0.0000 0 15 .0000 0.0000
70 75 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000
75 80 -17.20 24.00 0.2833 1 12 .0833 0.6514
80 85 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000
85 90 -7.60 12.00 0.3667 1 6 .1667 1.3027
90 999999 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000


And here's what I have for all tracks downloaded (again, with first time starters removed) for calendar year 2007:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied: LT0

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Complete_History_07.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 326776.50 326197.90 324327.90
Bet -423434.00-423434.00-423434.00
Gain -96657.50 -97236.10 -99106.10

Wins 26782 53281 78438
Plays 211717 211717 211717
PCT .1265 .2517 .3705

ROI 0.7717 0.7704 0.7659
Avg Mut 12.20 6.12 4.13
By: Recent Activity- Days Last Start

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999 0 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0 5 -159.60 302.00 0.4715 14 151 .0927 0.7329
5 10 -3632.30 15840.00 0.7707 925 7920 .1168 0.9233
10 15 -15403.10 59838.00 0.7426 3561 29919 .1190 0.9409
15 20 -16583.60 73542.00 0.7745 4624 36771 .1258 0.9941
20 25 -18238.50 75452.00 0.7583 4836 37726 .1282 1.0133
25 30 -11754.60 52000.00 0.7740 3447 26000 .1326 1.0480
30 35 -6642.70 29788.00 0.7770 2025 14894 .1360 1.0748
35 40 -5382.40 23826.00 0.7741 1664 11913 .1397 1.1042
40 45 -2744.40 17296.00 0.8413 1198 8648 .1385 1.0951

45 50 -1611.20 10774.00 0.8505 756 5387 .1403 1.1094
50 55 -1425.50 6890.00 0.7931 444 3445 .1289 1.0188
55 60 -952.40 6432.00 0.8519 446 3216 .1387 1.0963
60 65 -908.00 4798.00 0.8108 322 2399 .1342 1.0611
65 70 -83.70 3268.00 0.9744 217 1634 .1328 1.0498
70 75 -779.70 2870.00 0.7283 175 1435 .1220 0.9640
75 80 -524.90 2506.00 0.7905 150 1253 .1197 0.9464
80 85 -619.90 2120.00 0.7076 132 1060 .1245 0.9844
85 90 -669.20 1518.00 0.5592 86 759 .1133 0.8957
90 999999 -8541.80 34374.00 0.7515 1760 17187 .1024 0.8095




-jp

.

BillW
02-27-2008, 05:00 PM
From all of 2007 (55731 races):

2-10 days 0.99
11-20 days 1.06
21-28 days 1.11
29-65 days 1.16
66-165 days 0.95
166 up 0.82

Mark,

I just noticed that these numbers look a bit fishy (not from my software so I can't confirm). They do look like they are in proper proportion (i.e. the 1.11 is higher than the 1.06) but maybe offset high by 0.05 or maybe 0.06.

BIG RED
02-27-2008, 05:29 PM
" Recency of winners "

Not enough, never is.....correct Sir?

Key word is winners, not recency. JMO