AQU7 light exacta

[ryesteve]

9-1 with 6-1 only comes back $106?

Here were the probables under the winner, along with the closing odds of the potential underneath horse:

#1 $ 92 (2/1)
#4 $106 (6/1)
#5 $ 85 (5/2)
#6 $175 (7/1)
#7 $189 (10/1)
#10 $285 (13/1)

Looks like it was about $50 light to me. Any insights, anyone?

[dutchboy]

It does look light which may be the result of a 3-1 ml fav. It seems like a good estimate of what the exacta will pay is to take the price of the winner times what the place horse paid. If you look at results for a racecard the majority of exactas may be close to that formula. Don't know how the odds of the favorite affects the exacta will pays. Assume an odds-on favorite running out of the exacta will drive up the other exacta prices and in your case not having a low odds favorite will drive down the exacta price since any money that would have included a low odd fav is now spread to more exacta combinations.

[ryesteve]

Valid points... but in this case, just looking at the probables, you wouldn't expect a 7-1 shot to have a payoff more than 60% higher than a 6-1 shot, and you would expect a 6-1 shot to have a payoff more than 15% higher than a 2-1 shot... or at least that's what I'd normally assume...