War Pass returns Sunday

[ny0707ny]

Im excited about tomorrow. He has been out of action since October. I can't wait to see him.

The race before it will also be great. Im ready.

[michiken]

This kind of bugs me....

Why isn't War Pass running in the Fountain of Youth?

Is the trainer afraid of the distance?

Why would they opt for a paid workout against a sub par field?

Wonder if the horse has been hurt?

[rokitman]

Zito has been saying for some time now that his path to the Derby would be the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood. And Zito has two horses in the FOY.

[russowen77]

I think the horse has a chance to be a great miler-8.5f horse. His dam side has a little more back end than the normal mares Cherokee Run gets but he is going to have a lot to overcome in races that go much farther.

If I owned I wouldn't even think about the Derby trail.

[cj]

I think the horse has a chance to be a great miler-8.5f horse. His dam side has a little more back end than the normal mares Cherokee Run gets but he is going to have a lot to overcome in races that go much farther.

If I owned I wouldn't even think about the Derby trail.

How could you not even try? The big money is not at 8-8.5f. Imagine if the owners of Seattle Slew thought that way.

[russowen77]

There is a lot of money in the 8 to 8.5mile races. Horses have egos also imo. War pass owns the world right now and would be tough to be in numerous million dollar mile races.

His DP is 13-5-9-0-1. I have to admit the last one is intriguing just in case it came through but he is full of brilliant speed. His DI is 4.09.

I don't understand your example. Seattle Slew DP was 7-6-4-5-0. That gets you 10f imo. His DI was 2.14. SS was bred to go long. WP is bred for speed.

A better example of how a horse could outrun it's pedigree was Real Quiet. DP of 14-12-12-0-0 with a DI of 5.33.

[cj]

I was talking about his running style, not the pretty fraudulent dosage system.

[rokitman]

18 of the 22 horses on this list http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/default.aspx have a dosage rating that is under 4.0 (one horse has no rating and another is right on 4.0). This vast majority of horses with a DI of less than 4.0 is the case every year. It shouldn't come as any big surprise that horses with a DI of less than 4.0 win a lot of Derbies. How could they not? It is just a convoluted, back-fitted way of saying "Very, very well bred horses win a high percentage of Kentucky Derbies! A lot more than lesser bred horses! And way, way more than Ol' Nag's offspring" Duh!

You dosage guys should switch over to my very exclusive, proprietary Red Dot System. Every year, just before the Derby goes off, I put an imaginary red dot on the asses of the 80% of the horses in the race that I think could win. I'm on a 25 year win streak! :ThmbUp:

[rokitman]

There was one year that a horse without a Red Dot won the race but I realized right after the race that I really did want a Red Dot on that horse horse.

[russowen77]

I was talking about his running style, not the pretty fraudulent dosage system.
I gave you two different ways to check pedigree that I use when I do my work. Dp is especially important to me as it shows breeder intent.His dam is full of brilliant speed. 46 doesn't care how a horse is bred either. No biggie to me.

I understand that many horses have higher DIs than they used to have. People are breeding for speed everywhere it seems. However, this year is way different as there are many of the horses bred for a little longer this year for some reason.

WP might be able to get the first 2 but it would take a Devine intervention , imo, for him to get all three.

The BC mile pays pretty well among others.

I have seen way too many horses ruined imo by two things.
Two year old in training fast 2f works.
consistently asking a horse to do something it is not bred to do.

Cherokee Run just might be my favorite stallion alive today. I love the way he throws. I just don't think he will have that many triple crown race winners. He does throw some decent runner/foal (77)and Wnr h% 56 as of the end of 2006. They tend to be precouscious and not to difficult to handle. Add that to a dam with speedball breeding it just doesn't add up to me.

[46zilzal]

War Pass has simply run away from all competition. It will be interesting to see if this one can rate. Eight furlongs, against this field is hardly challenge enough to see that, but this one's style, SO FAR, says intermediate routes only.

[Marshall Bennett]

Appears to me to be more of a workout than a race . Is he giving the rest of the field a head start ? If not he should !!

[cj]

I am not saying he will go the 10f or longer distance in top class. What I am saying is that it would be insane not to try until he proves he cannot.

[russowen77]

I am not saying he will go the 10f or longer distance in top class. What I am saying is that it would be insane not to try until he proves he cannot.

You are probably a much better handicapper than I am. I am a horseman trying to learn this end. We just disagree is all. It might be insane to not send him 10 from the owners point of view. It is not from my perspective of what I think is best for the horse. One more BC victory and he is going to have a serious stud fee whether he trys the Derby or not.

[classhandicapper]

The good news is that if you have a strong opinion about War Pass's ability to stretch out you are eventually going to be able to get a bet down because there are still varied opinions. His price is going to discount that lack of certainty. His odds will be longer than if people were certain he could, but still pretty darn short if you don't like him.

In all probability, today's race will do nothing to hurt his reputation. It's a very weak field and he should be drawing off by a large margin late in this spot.

[ny0707ny]

He may get lucky and not have to rate. He is a really fast front runner. In the last year of the Derby you only had one which was Hard Spun. I had him as my pick thinking he will just wire the race. War Pass might just be able to get ahead of everyone and draw off from the field. The question would be the distance still as it is with every horse going for the Derby.

There is a horse called Fabulous Strike. Not sure if he is still racing. He won his sprints this way. Just took the lead all the time and nobody could catch him. He was too fast.

War Pass has 4 straight increasing speed figures. Usually a talented horse keeps improving until at least 4 years old.

[jognlope]

Someone got a nice exacta, not me, shoulda gone over to OTB.

[ny0707ny]

War Pass wins! I know competition was really none but he looked great out there. Never even asked.

Can't wait for his next start.

[whyhorseofcourse]

That exacta cracked me up.
Its worse than those $1 pick-3s at Mohawk that paid $2.80.

[jognlope]

Oh yuck I thought the exacta would be higher, glad I didn't go!

[Norm]

War Pass wins! I know competition was really none but he looked great out there. Never even asked.
Can't wait for his next start.
Nice workout, huh ? A mile in 1:36 1/5 breezing. And his mile was two full seconds faster than the mile in the so called "real" race, the Fountain of Youth. Is it too soon to say, "Triple Crown" ? I guess it is, but if some real talent doesn't emerge soon, he may win it by default.

[alysheba88]

Zito has proven he knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby and as importantly rigours of the TC

[Javagold]

there is a big difference for fractions in a one turn mile and a 2 turn 9 furlong race....war pass has NO chance of winning the Kentucky Derby

[DanG]

Nice workout, huh ? A mile in 1:36 1/5 breezing. And his mile was two full seconds faster than the mile in the so called "real" race, the Fountain of Youth. Is it too soon to say, "Triple Crown" ? I guess it is, but if some real talent doesn't emerge soon, he may win it by default.
The time was miss-posted Norm in the Fountain of Youth. I know…a real shock for GP. :faint:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP022408USA9.pdf

[rokitman]

Is it just me or did War Pass really have curlers in his hair and a cigarette hanging off his lip?

[Marshall Bennett]

Sure he looked strong , well done . Needs to run with more talent in a larger field . He's no doubt one of the best 3yr. olds but needs to get used to some traffic , and dirt kicked in his face . Could be so much the better it really doesn't matter but ya never know .

[Pell Mell]

Sure he looked strong , well done . Needs to run with more talent in a larger field . He's no doubt one of the best 3yr. olds but needs to get used to some traffic , and dirt kicked in his face . Could be so much the better it really doesn't matter but ya never know .

Something has to get in front of him to kick dirt in his face:lol:

[ny0707ny]

I know some fast horses but most are probably just sprinters. He many never have any horses in front of him in the Derby preps.

I think he can pull a War Emblem. He just wired the Derby and nobody thought he would win that year. He was never challanged during the Derby race.

His other races before the Derby will tell a lot more.

[Marshall Bennett]

In a 20 horse field , post position and a clean break may mean everything . Folks were talking wire / wire with Sinister Minister a couple years back . Blew away the field in the Blue Grass .. a disaster in the Derby .

[46zilzal]

In a 20 horse field , post position and a clean break may mean everything . Folks were talking wire / wire with Sinister Minister a couple years back . Blew away the field in the Blue Grass .. a disaster in the Derby .
Not very savvy people! Nothing about that one said 10 furlongs.

[Norm]

The time was miss-posted Norm in the Fountain of Youth. I know…a real shock for GP. :faint:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP022408USA9.pdf
Amazing . . . what's a poor handicapper to do when they get the time wrong by that much :confused:

[ManeMediaMogul]

The late great Hall of Fame trainer Laz Barrera once said, "Any horse can run a mile and a quarter. You just have to train him to do it."

[DanG]

It’s weird to say, but War Pass almost impressed me as much in this “race / workout” as any he has run.

Sure, were all curious if he will chase as well as he leads (assuming he ever does), but he didn’t have one rank bone in his body. Great sign to not race for months / race on an event day and be so completely relaxed.

Nice…nice animal. :ThmbUp:

BTW-I: I also think his breeding isn’t getting the 2-turn credit its due. When the great Mr. Prospector is that recent your veins…anything’s possible.

BTW-II: This animal will draw fans which is always a good thing. The Tampa Bay Derby will be packed to see him and assuming all goes well / New York will welcome home their champion in a well attended Wood. :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

It’s weird to say, but War Pass almost impressed me as much in this “race / workout” as any he has run.

Sure, were all curious if he will chase as well as he leads (assuming he ever does), but he didn’t have one rank bone in his body. Great sign to not race for months / race on an event day and be so completely relaxed.

Nice…nice animal. :ThmbUp:

BTW-I: I also think his breeding isn’t getting the 2-turn credit its due. When the great Mr. Prospector is that recent your veins…anything’s possible.

BTW-II: This animal will draw fans which is always a good thing. The Tampa Bay Derby will be packed to see him and assuming all goes well / New York will welcome home their champion in a well attended Wood. :ThmbUp:

What is the path scheduled for Cool Coal Man?

jdl

[DanG]

Video links to War Pass's 5 / 5 starts so far…(As of 2/24/2008)



07/28/2007 – SAR / MSW / 6f fst dirt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9kAsyF2mC4


08/26/2007 – SAR / OCL / 6f gd dirt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIjPbAocT3E


10/06/2007 – BEL / GR1 / 8f fst dirt. (Champagne stakes, 1-turn)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Lh7rd6wOn0


10/27/2007 – MTH / GR1 / 8.5f sly dirt. (Breeders Cup Juvenile)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWeV2KU67DY&feature=related


02/24/2008 – GP / OCL / 8f fst dirt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G37VZGLFxXA

[Robert Fischer]

War Pass looks great. He aced the 2yo mile season, and he didn't appear to have any problems in his 3yo debut.

Distance is obviously suspect. Even if he were bred to get the distance, his running style, and the fact that he has led every call, plays against the 10 furlong distance.

However War Pass appears to be getting stronger. He carries himself so much better than the horse who staggered home in the stretch, last August. He is maybe just a little wide with his left front, but maybe he is simply broad in the chest.

Kentucky Derby (and 9 furlong prep) chances are looking better at the moment, without a lot of Grade I or II race horses emerging, and with a seeming lack of speed horses among the contenders. If War Pass is able to open up on the field and relax, he has a chance to wire the field against the crop as it currently appears. It is very hard to enter rabbits in the Kentucky Derby, and trainers with multiple entries are unlikely to sacrafice one of their entries - if they can even catch him. We obviously get to learn more about War Pass with his final prep races.

[russowen77]

It’s weird to say, but War Pass almost impressed me as much in this “race / workout” as any he has run.

Sure, were all curious if he will chase as well as he leads (assuming he ever does), but he didn’t have one rank bone in his body. Great sign to not race for months / race on an event day and be so completely relaxed.

Nice…nice animal. :ThmbUp:

BTW-I: I also think his breeding isn’t getting the 2-turn credit its due. When the great Mr. Prospector is that recent your veins…anything’s possible.

BTW-II: This animal will draw fans which is always a good thing. The Tampa Bay Derby will be packed to see him and assuming all goes well / New York will welcome home their champion in a well attended Wood. :ThmbUp:

Anyone who likes Mr P in the line is going to be an estatic handicapper. It is getting harder to find ones with none. Another Nashrulla.:)

I am sure they are going to give him a chance so you will get to find out.

imo, Mr. P is more of a speed influence in this breeding. He is actually a very balanced horse that was obviously able to do well with a wide range of mares.

For two turns, the intriquing part of the pedigree to me is the Hoist the Flag-Tom Rolfe side. That side has some stamina for sure. It will be fun to watch.

[DanG]

I am sure they are going to give him a chance so you will get to find out.
How could you not at this point Russ?

If he remains healthy, it’s up to him to prove or disprove himself. It would be sheer madness to make that decision for the animal at this point imo.

(BTW: At this point / I would not bet him at the price we all know he would be in the Derby…but…that is in no way disparaging the way he has run so far. Thank goodness we have 3yo's worth discussing!) :jump:

[russowen77]

The only reason I wouldn't want to because of how dependent, with his running style, of his post position draws in the Derby. The purses have grown so large in the various 8f and 8.5f races that I wouldn't want to risk him.

BTW, it is just me and I love mile races. He could win 3 breeders cup races and that has never been done that I am aware.

He sure is visually appealing. Damn I love Cherokee Run as a Sire.

[classhandicapper]

I'm trying REALLY HARD to not fall too much in love with this horse yet. We all have varying degrees of concern about his ability to stretch out past 9F, but at this stage I think there's more to worry about than that. So far, he's a one dimensional speed horse. He rates well on the lead, but we still don't know whether he can do the same thing with horses in front of him or whether he'll get dragged into a fast pace. Getting dragged into a fast pace has to be a major concern in a race like the "typical" Derby for a horse with his style and "suspect stamina".

Typically, I think most outstanding horses can be taught to relax behind other horses and finish well if they are trained to do so and get some experience in races. However, time is running out to have this horse ready to do that kind of thing in the Derby. He has only 2 more preps. I think Zito would be fortunate if a very speedy horse shows up at Tampa so this horse can get some experience racing behind a bullet. I don't think learning that lesson in a 20 horse field at 10F would be the ideal scenario.

Whatever the figure was for yesterday's race, I would simply dismiss it as not being representative of what he is capable of in a real race. He beat nothing yesterday, but we already know he has a lot of talent.

[Hank]

I LOVE top class speeds.However gameness is such a LARGE factor in their final grade its best not to get too excited until they are hooked and see how they respond. [remember the great:ThmbDown: Bernardini's meek surrender in the BC]BTW the more I watch the Champagne the better Pyro looks he lost at least 4 on the turn and lost by 2 looks like he nails War pass with a better trip.What do you guys think?

[classhandicapper]

Pyro seems to have the disadvantage of running from far off the pace making him vulnerable to a bad trip in a large field like the Derby. He and War Pass are at the top of the heap so far, but I'd be surprised if someone with a less extreme style doesn't fire a big race between now and the Derby day and put himself into the picture.

[ny0707ny]

What is amazing is War Pass got a 97 Beyer in the race Sunday. He was not even under the whip one time. This was a jog for him. What speed figure would he have gotten if he was all out? I say 105-110?

This horse is not beatable if he can get a clear lead in all of his races.

[alysheba88]

What is amazing is War Pass got a 97 Beyer in the race Sunday. He was not even under the whip one time. This was a jog for him. What speed figure would he have gotten if he was all out? I say 105-110?

This horse is not beatable if he can get a clear lead in all of his races.

I think one of the biggest fallacies in racing is that an "easy winner" could have run faster if pressed. Almost all of the biggest Beyers have been earned in such an "easy" manner.

[PaceAdvantage]

Interesting point aly....I agree....Case in point....Secretariat's Belmont....one of the biggest Beyers EVER, and one where Big Red certainly wasn't pressed....

[cj]

War Pass went too slow early to get a big speed figure. I was pretty impressed with his ability to rate.

[alysheba88]

Interesting point aly....I agree....Case in point....Secretariat's Belmont....one of the biggest Beyers EVER, and one where Big Red certainly wasn't pressed....

And his son, General Assembly ran like a 134 never pressed.

Groovy used to put up some incredible Beyers. High 120's. Then he'd go to BC, be 4-5 and that would be that.

Bernardini was another example. And lets not forget Bellamy Road either

[banacek]

Interesting point aly....I agree....Case in point....Secretariat's Belmont....one of the biggest Beyers EVER, and one where Big Red certainly wasn't pressed....

Well he certainly wasn't pressed at the end, but Sham was pressing him head and head for the first 6 furlongs in 46 1/5 and 109 4/5.

[PaceAdvantage]

Holy Bull was pressed like mad in the Travers....he was also pressed late....was the Travers his biggest career fig ever?

BTW, Holy Bull's Travers was perhaps the greatest individual performance ever from a horse who's best distance clearly wasn't 10 furlongs....

[PaceAdvantage]

Well he certainly wasn't pressed at the end, but Sham was pressing him head and head for the first 6 furlongs in 46 1/5 and 109 4/5.True, but most advocates of the "could have run faster if pressed" mantra are usually citing the last portion of a race as evidence....

[alysheba88]

Holy Bull was pressed like mad in the Travers....he was also pressed late....was the Travers his biggest career fig ever?

BTW, Holy Bull's Travers was perhaps the greatest individual performance ever from a horse who's best distance clearly wasn't 10 furlongs....

He was a fabulous horse for sure. That was a great race but dont think his fastest Beyer wise. I think he ran in 120s for Met Handicap

[russowen77]

Somebody please explain to me how a front runner is going to perform better when pressed??? I am really clueless on that point. Loose on the lead has lead to some really high figs that next time out the horse could not duplicate when pressed.

Holy Bull was one great race horse within his distance parameters imo. One of the best I have ever seen.

[ny0707ny]

Some front runners have earned the best figures loose on the lead but they probably were not saving the horse and didn't worry much if the horse was going at top speed.

War Pass ran this race without any effort. And I saw him also under restraint in the first part of the race. This would also slow the speed figure. The comments also say (un-encouraged,easily)

He had to improve speed wise I am sure sitting on the sidelines for 4 months. Good horses byers ususally climb each month at this age. So we really don't know what he is able to do 4 months later until he is all out in a race. When not under restraint and all out, then we can see the speed figure and if it is any higher.

[Hank]

Holy Bull was pressed like mad in the Travers....he was also pressed late....was the Travers his biggest career fig ever?

BTW, Holy Bull's Travers was perhaps the greatest individual performance ever from a horse who's best distance clearly wasn't 10 furlongs....

This is exactly what I was talking about,Just like human atheletes,intangibles like heart and courage mark Great ones.Long live the Bull:ThmbUp:

[ManeMediaMogul]

By the same token, horses often run a top when they dead-heat.

[cnollfan]

In a 20 horse field , post position and a clean break may mean everything . Folks were talking wire / wire with Sinister Minister a couple years back . Blew away the field in the Blue Grass .. a disaster in the Derby .

War Pass is better than Sinister Minister. His next best win after the Blue Grass was what, a 62500 sprint?

Speaking of the break, it doesn't get much pub these days but Seattle Slew broke flat-footed in the Kentucky Derby and had to bull his way through the field in the first quarter mile to reach the front. Speed horses just don't win at 1 1/4 miles after that, unless they are, well, Seattle Slew.

[rastajenk]

What is amazing is War Pass got a 97 Beyer in the race Sunday. The DRF Leaderboard has him listed with a 102. Did those crafty Beyer Guys buy a piece of him and then adjust his fig upwards? I wouldn't put it past 'em. :eek: