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View Full Version : Wendsdays double at NeWyAwK


Suff
02-03-2003, 09:12 PM
When I roll.. I roll. And I feel it. Let's rock n roll with Wed's double right out the gate.


I have no Morning lines and thats perfect.

I'm capping to a moist.. Not only because it's gonna rain all day Tuesday.. but it will be near 50 and I expect them to do alot of work to the track that was put off from 30 days of sub-zero temps. So even if it comes up dry.. I expect it be Harrowed thoroughly and what has'nt been dug up, will certainly be on WED.


1. Classical Drive.. (probable 2nd or 3rd Fav) ITM 3 for 4 at the distance . Performances over the inner.. strictly routing.. have been the worst races of his life however ,, with a couple of low 50 performances. I'm capping to a moist track and although he shows 2-4 ITM on an off.. I went through and they're against weaker. I'm almost certainly tossing on a wet.. and I'm barely convinced on a dry either. His efforts against open company at any level have been dull...at 8-1 or better,, on fast track.. with a couple of scratches I could be coerced into using underneath. But more than liklely I'm not using at all.

#2 Mickey the Groom.. probable longshot... Very weak in beyer comparisons,,, o for 6 on the inner (1 show placing) . If your looking for angle.. it's first Blinks.. and if your looking for a reason.. he was only ONE length behind Classical drive (#1) in the 11-29-02 affair. Nothing in his trainer stats... Lifetime stats or inner stats... give me any reason to think he'll be any kind of a fator in here. EXCEPT... he's raced with Blinkers twice.. earned a 76 and a 63.. wich puts him still a notch below these.. and on the Aqd Main track in April O2 , in the MUD.. he won an open 20K Clm'r that included LUFT and Carpe Diem.. and he earned a 72 for that effort... Gonna take a Low 80 to take this probably so, he still needs to step it up. With the blinks , any mud,, and the inside post He could get 3rd.. but nothing better.

#3 Buckmont.. Argentina to Florida.. to Delaware.. to Maryland ,, to New york in 11 months. Is this someone's pet, that they take on vacation with them? Would shock the world.

#4 Gunning.. this is a potential opportunity to catch a good horse at a very nice price.... everything has been going against him and he looks a bit unplayable. 0 for 6 at the distance... On paper it looks like bad outings in last 3 or 4..... But I'm going to play this horse Because,,, he has a sound record at 1 1/16th and a mile 70... he's faced MUCH MUCH better than this field... Pure Harmony.. Northwest hill freaked,,, Gail's Drive (thurs. finale ROMP winner by 6 in a 30K Clmr)
Loves the inner... Beyers fit,,,,,,,, Musical Barns.. weak trainer.. weak Jockey.. all lead to a BIG price for good horse that I give a very serious chance of taking it all and almost certainly getting on the ticket. at somewhere north of 12-1 .

#5 Taraf... when he won a Race by 13 1/2 lengths at Saratoga On my Birthday while I was trackside watching him run. I thought he would take over NY went he went south,, Put him on my horse watch and bet him good for his next 3 or 4 outings. And he did nothing... and has done nothing.. except a win against one of the weaker fields of the meet on Dec 29th. Three reasons you have to consider this horse are his Record on the inner.. His taste for the wet.. and the race he ran against Puzzlement at Gulfstream 12 months ago. If he can find that effort.. he will be a huge factor... I don't expect it though. And let me warn you.. that win at 18K was against Nobody... Got a ground saving trip in a race that completley fell apart and he snuck up and snatched it. He'll be coming a lil bit late.

#6 Zachorov. A great horse players Horse. Gives you a solid effort every outing. His 10 wins are more than the 1 ,2 3 and 4 combined! But he is 9 and appears to be feeling it.. his 2nd best effort will beat these...Only horse with a 100+ beyer on his resume. I would be encouraged by his effort behind Mr. Baskets two back... but after watching Baskets run latley.. I have to say that effort drops a notch... so know I have a horse that is 9 , that has failed by big margins at CHALK FAVORITE status in 2 of last 3... and continues dropping... Wet track makes him the one to beat... but he is beatable...

#7 Tysun... Nothing to like for me expcept his 95 beyer and the impressive win in the mud. Also,, Jockey and trainer having career meet. Might get the lead.. and in a weak short field Could hold third.

Selections 4-6-5........ expecting big effort from the 4




Race 2

I expect to see a couple of these turfing in the spring...

#1 Appealing Jewel... debuted on dirt with a 63 facing lesser in FLA. Went right to turf and did'nt do to much. Has shown some very good early speed in next two dirt outings. Heavy Turf Pedigree on Both sides....Both Sire and Damn were Black types on Grass....Beyers on dirt make him a contender and probable pace setter. Wet track makes him the FAV probably

#2 Follow Betsy... Firster.. using. From Cozzene.. who's runners always run well at first asking. Steady , strong works.. Debuts Lasix. Bridhmohan up. Sire is 15%... Dam has five others.. all five have won.

#3 Hanah Senesch.... Would shock.

#4 Stealthy Cat... 6yo maiden... has nothing .. 0-9 at this level. I remeber when Ravish me was coupled with Lady Liberty At Sartoga and they debuted at .60 cents... and everyone said Ravish me was Monster.. Bailey was on her that day.. Ravish me is a Fraud. Would need one of the promising firsters to disappoint to have a chance.


#5 Silent Alarm. Another firster... using. Lukas horse.. leading Rider..... Couple of nice bullets.. steady work pattern. Sire and Damn produce winners... Owner had 4 horses win at first asking 2002. All 4 were with Lukas. who's not known for firsters.

#6 Reign on me $1.20... $1.80... $2.20 in last three.. with nothing.. ouch.. ouch and triple ouch. It's a short field.. but he could still be suckered into a speed duel .. and if that happens he's shown stamina issues. Still... The one to beat.


Using 5-2-6

Boris
02-03-2003, 10:06 PM
Dude,

Just wanted to say thanks for reviving this section of PA's board. It's a damn shame to me that NYRA is your home base as I have absolutely nothing to contribute to that, especially the Aqua Inny. But I do respect people that post their views of a race before the whole board, which these days IMO reaches a large number of the internet horseplaying community. When logic fails for whatever reason, you step back in and take another swing, and by doing so, have encouraged others to try as well. It's not easy to publically break down races after falling flat on your face, speaking from experience, yet you persist and it's easy to tell why. You like it and that's cool. This has always been my favorite section of the board because of the passion and optimism in the posts, and the compassion and respect that comes after a loser cause we all have them. A couple of years ago, we used to get a ton of posts in here and then they kinda died out, till you arrived. So good luck with your efforts. I don't bet your stuff and I don't expect anyone to bet mine, but it's a lot of fun trying to predict the future. Takes some grapes IMO.

Good Luck

Zaf
02-03-2003, 10:21 PM
Thanks for the great analysis Suff !!!

ZAFONIC

Suff
02-03-2003, 10:40 PM
Originally posted by Boris
Dude,

Just wanted to say thanks for reviving this section of PA's board. It's a damn shame to me that NYRA is your home base as I have absolutely nothing to contribute to that, especially the Aqua Inny. But I do respect people that post their views of a race before the whole board, which these days IMO reaches a large number of the internet horseplaying community. When logic fails for whatever reason, you step back in and take another swing, and by doing so, have encouraged others to try as well. It's not easy to publically break down races after falling flat on your face, speaking from experience, yet you persist and it's easy to tell why. You like it and that's cool. This has always been my favorite section of the board because of the passion and optimism in the posts, and the compassion and respect that comes after a loser cause we all have them. A couple of years ago, we used to get a ton of posts in here and then they kinda died out, till you arrived. So good luck with your efforts. I don't bet your stuff and I don't expect anyone to bet mine, but it's a lot of fun trying to predict the future. Takes some grapes IMO.

Good Luck


Wow,,, Thats the nicest compliment I have ever received.. and it really hit me.. thanks a million. I do enjoy it. I just got my w-2's and I made 81 Grand last year... not a bad year. I'm in Union construction and I get a foreman's rate and I worked A TON of over time this year. But I'd take a 50% pay cut if i could break into the horse racing Business somehow. I'd just like to get my foot in the door... I love the business and the industry and would love to work in it somehow someway someday.

We have a Rep Governer who is warm to slots... and if Suffolk gets slots I might start up a Horse racing partnership... syndicate type thing...Years ago.. I worked for Saturn Capital here in Boston.. Don Little was a Majority stock holder... he owns Centennial Farms. They shared our office space.. I watched them put together Multi-miilion dollar racing partnerships.. and I think it's something I could do on my own on a small scale. They bought and owned "Colonial Affair" the year he won the Belmont Stakes.

Thanks a Million Boris... As far as New York... To me.. its's the only place to play. Lowest take-outs... Strong Jockey and trainer Community.. Big Handles,,, Year round racing... I play one circuit and three tracks.. the NY Circuit... Churchill downs.. and Gulfstream park.. I don't play Tampa.. or Keeneland or Ellis... Everyone has his or her prefrences... So I understand... But on the takeout Principle alone,,, NY is superior... it just makes more sense to me that I get a better deal at a track that keeps less of the money?

formula_2002
02-04-2003, 12:22 AM
NUMBERS ON THE FAR RIGHT ARE THE MIN ODDS REQUIRED
GLOBAL WINNING PICKS FOR TUESDAY, 02/04/2003

MIN. GWP
TRACK--DATE RACE # HORSE WNET PNET SNET W ODDS ODDS
BEU20030204 2 OLD SNIVE 1.6
BEU20030204 5 BLUES NEW 3
BEU20030204 6 ZENIA ZEA 2.5

MNR20030204 3 BOLD N' P 1.33

PHA20030204 8 EVERLASTI 3
PHA20030204 10 PRIME JEW 1.71

SUF20030204 2 ANNE ENGL 1.67
SUF20030204 4 FITSTOATE 1.57
SUF20030204 7 THREE SEV 2.75
SUF20030204 8 CHILLING 3.5
SUF20030204 9 OSPREY 2.6

TAM20030204 3 MISS DANC 2.75

TUP20030204 2 DE SHAY 1.33
TUP20030204 6 HOBO TRAV 2.75
TUP20030204 7 PANORAMA 1.22

FINAL ODDS MUST EXCEED "MIN. GWP ODDS"
SCRATCHES MAY CAUSE SOME CHANGES TO SELECTIONS.

Suff
02-04-2003, 12:35 AM
I'm going down to watch Suffolks Live card tommorrow..which has been very good lately.. I'll tote your picks along...... Maybe I'll make a bunch of copies and sell them at the front door? lol

Seriously... I'll put a few beans on your picks tommorrow.

NYRAcapper
02-04-2003, 12:35 AM
I'm gonna give ou all one to watch out for in the first race, specially if the track is wet but even if its not.

#7 Tysun
Trainer Jason Servis has been hitting some shots at this meet and I believe he's got this one perfectly prepped to come home at a price here. If the horse runs he is well meant, there can be little doubt, as he ran just 4 days prior on Saturday. Visually a horrible performance---unless it was a price boosting workout!!!!!!!. Why in the heck else would Pimental stay aborad this horse and why raise him in class and run him back on 4 days rest----cause he's ready to fire of course. Believe this one could be the speed that is so hard to find in this race.
Gunning was my original top choice, a tepid one but still my top choice, then I noticed his recent poor performances coincided with the switch to new trainer Pringle but more importantly the addition of front wraps. I'm gonna go with Servis' 40% win record at the meet vs Pringle's 0 fer 8.

In the second race SUff has it exactly the way I capped it last night, same horses same order.

Race 1 7/1/5-6
Race 2 5/2/6

For those interested, before you even purchase the PP's for AQU Wed card let me say that this is DEFINITELY the WORST card I have seen in NY in the last two years. Looks like the SO CAL tracks with 5 and 6 horse fields with heavy chalks. I probably will not even make a bet Wed unless I get 15-1 or better on Tysun

formula_2002
02-04-2003, 12:45 AM
Suff, dont charge 'em more then 50 cents....

Good luck

Joe M

ps
Excellent analyis on your Wed picks..

At first I thought those items 1 to 7 were the race numbers..

Then I scrolled down further to find "Race 2"
lol

zieglerjw
02-04-2003, 02:05 AM
I was looking forward to your analysis identifying --"lone E" contenders !! do you still intend to "mark" those in your selection list !!???

formula_2002
02-04-2003, 07:46 AM
zieglerjw

Yes, I'll be marking the lone "E".

In todays picks he's in SUF 4th, Fitstoatee.

Unfortunately he is 7/5 in the morning line and I have him at a bit better then 3/2. Looks like he will not be a win play.


Joe M

formula_2002
02-04-2003, 08:59 PM
The avatra says most of it. the rest went something like this...0 for 6..

I'll wait until fri, sat and sunday.. possibly wed and thur....too

jotb
02-04-2003, 09:20 PM
Hello NYRA CAPPER:

Philadelphia based trainer Servis is coming back on 4 days which is a move that I like but I have a feeling the racing secretary wanted this race to go and that is why you see Tysun. Might be scratch if track comes up fast..

Best regards,
Joe

Zaf
02-04-2003, 09:41 PM
Originally posted by formula_2002
The avatra says most of it. the rest went something like this...0 for 6..

I'll wait until fri, sat and sunday.. possibly wed and thur....too

I love that Avatar, classic.

Zafonic

formula_2002
02-04-2003, 09:47 PM
Thanks Z.
makes my point,
Yours is very good also.

They also paste well into e-mails...

Jrdhorse
02-05-2003, 05:39 AM
Sufferin just wanted to say I see you are in the area of Boston. I find that interesting as I used to work their and I lived in S. Quincy at Marina Bay. When I was their I frequented Suffolks and the Dog track they had their , the one in town and also I believe the one called Raynham Tauton Dog Track. Nice area loved it when I was there!! I also saw in your post about the horse partnership you were chatting about with Don Little. I found that interesting because my Fathers sister works as secretary for the Mennens the Gillette Kings in New Jersey. They are hooked in with Don Little in that horse partnership. My Dads sister is always sending him the Horse partnership reports on how each horse is training each month. Just found it interesting. Enjoy your posts. Jrdhorse

Suff
02-05-2003, 09:56 AM
Originally posted by Jrdhorse
Jersey. They are hooked in with Don Little in that horse partnership. My Dads sister is always sending him the Horse partnership reports on how each horse is training each month. Just found it interesting. Enjoy your posts. Jrdhorse

Yup.. these guys are the real deal... Most of thier partnerships are a 100K minimum. Some are 250k Minimum. Don Little is extremley wealthy. And part of the American Elite. He was President of the American Polo Association for many years. His son was a Top Polo player in the country and had played with and against Prince Charles and that whole crew. They have money to burn. His son's name is Don too. But his Nickname.. and he even calls Himself this... is "Doo" lol


They've been using Bill Mott of late.. with thier horses. I always tell people. that when you see a Centennial Farms Horse go in a claimer..bet him. These people like to get on thier private Jets and fly all over the country watching thier horses run in Grade 1 and Grade 2 events. And if thier horses can't compete at that level.. they have no interest in them....So they dump them.. Sometimes on the cheap.... They're too high Brow to be feeding 40K claimers......

Keep me posted on any developments......... Like I said.. If Suffolk gets slots... I'm going to take the Deleware and West Virginia Model.. and do something up here.

SUFF

Jrdhorse
02-05-2003, 10:11 AM
I know what you mean about the slots. Off topic when a track gets slots it is a money maker for everyone. I have already bought hundreds of shares of MIEC hoping they get slots in Maryland. MIEC is owned by Frank Stronach. Put it this way when PENN got slots at Charlestown their stock went from 4 dollars a share to 35 and then it split. You guys should check out MIEC and do your own research. I am already in. Jrdhorse

Suff
02-05-2003, 10:22 AM
Ok... You've done well... So when I start selling $2500.00 dollar shares of "Sufferindowns Racing Limited Partnership".... I'll put you down for three shares OK?

Jrdhorse
02-05-2003, 01:41 PM
Count me in on your partnership. Can I buy more than 1 share??????? Jrdhorse

cj
02-05-2003, 03:35 PM
Originally posted by Jrdhorse
I know what you mean about the slots. Off topic when a track gets slots it is a money maker for everyone. I have already bought hundreds of shares of MIEC hoping they get slots in Maryland. MIEC is owned by Frank Stronach. Put it this way when PENN got slots at Charlestown their stock went from 4 dollars a share to 35 and then it split. You guys should check out MIEC and do your own research. I am already in. Jrdhorse

Good luck, but if you are counting on Maryland racing to make you money, you are going to need it. DeFrancis is a jack@$$ and his father would be appalled to see what he has done to the tracks. Now the politicians and horseman are at odds over splitting the money. It could be years before they get slots, if ever.

CJ

Suff
02-05-2003, 03:54 PM
Did well... early on... First two races... Two winners.. Two exacta's, A trifecta and the double............ Ship started taking on water from that point... and I was SOS'n by the 7th.