Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Fountain Of Youth this sunday at GP are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

This race is really interesting. Horses come off layoffs, trying two turns the first time, trying dirt for the first time, sharp workouts,musical jockeys, large field with a strong bias against outside posts, and a chance for bad weather to boot.

Horses that have competed around two turns on dirt are rated below with respect to their variant and class ratings.


COOL COAL MAN 75 (1 1/16), 73 (1 1/8) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 57
GOLDEN SPIKES 72 (1 1/8) improving, Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 54
COURT VISION 75 (1 1/8) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 62
Z HUMOR 70 (1 1/16) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 63
READY SET 73 (1 1/16) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 52
ANAK NAKAL 77 (1 1/16) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 64
ELYSIUM FIELDS 73 (1 1/8) improving, Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 45
HALO NAJIB 74 (1 1/16) Competed well vs. a field with class rating of 64


Z HUMOR is coming back very soon after a flat effort and is suspect.

GOLDEN SPIKEs showed some improvment when stretched out around two turns last out, is stepping
up in class, and is may be distance limited.

ELYSIUM FIELDS is stepping well up in class but he earned a variant ratings in his last race at todays 1 1/18 distance improving 6 lengths from his previous start so he must be respected.

HALO NAJIB has been beaten by two foes previously, draws outside, and may need to use his early speed too much too soon.

COOL COAL MAN ran well in his 3yo debut but it was about two lengths weaker than his best two turn race as a 2yo. he is 3 for 4 around two turns, draws well, has a race/win over the track, and shows a sharp 1/2 mile drill for this spot.

COURT VISION has never been worse than 2nd, has a win at the distance, lures Gomez off Z HUMOR and is the fields highweight coming off a 3 month layoff.

ANAK NAKAL has displayed the most talent of any runner and did so as a 2yo. Zito didn't set up a prep for this colt and Leparoux stays aboard. He has been working every seven days since the end of December.

The horses trying dirt or two turns for the first time are KENTUCKY BEAR, MONBA, MAKE THE POINT, and ADRIANO.

KENTUCKY BEAR earned a 75 varint rating in his very first start in a one turn mile. It had taken many starts for alot of colts in this field to display that type of talent. However, going from one turn to two as well as stepping into stakes company off a lone maiden win would make this colt something very special.

MONBA has won on dirt in a one turn mile at CD earning a 73 varaint rating in his 2nd start (not as good as KENTUCKY BEAR). He then ran very well around two turns earning a 76 variant ratings but that was on the HOL Polytrack.

ADRIANO comes out of an exceptional maiden breaking score on turf but draws a horrible post being on the far outside. He shows a bullet 6f drill on dirt in preps for this spot.


The pace of this race looks like it will be contested. In post position order

COOL COAL MAN (74 pace), GOLDEN SPIKES (74 pace), ANAK NAKAL (74 pace), HALO NAJIB (76 pace) look evenly matched and MAKE THE POINT shows the best pace rating in a sprint on a fast track (72) of any of these as well. MAKE THE POINT has never passed a horse so he is likely to try and
make the lead but from this post, vs.this field, he will be up agaisnt it. McLaughlin is dangerous the 2nd time he sends anything to the starting gate but this may be asking a little too much.Since post positiion at GP in 1 1/8 mil races needs to be given more weight than is typical, the two inside horses (COOL COAL MAN and GOLDEN SPIKES) will certainly be running out of the gate to mainatin their inside position. COOL COAL MAN drilled a sharp 1/2 mile 9 days ago so he will likely be on his toes. GOLDEN SPIKES, aconfrimed sprinter, has certainly been trained in such a way to get him to relax early. From this post, I doubt he will be asked to relax too much or he
would be taken out of his game. ANAK NAKAL is fresh and doesn't need the lead to win at all. He will likely be put wherever Leparoux feels he is best suited; not losing too much ground into the first turn is the challenge. HALO NAJIB showed good pace in both of his dirt races over a fast track. He was not able to outfoot GOLDEN SPIKES early when the met in the slop and he draws very poorly today. With respect to the worktab, ELYSIUM FIELDS has been working lights out over the last 24 days. He ran the race of his life with the additron of blinkers and continmues to improve in the AM.


The wild cards in this race are ELYSIUM FIELDS, KENTUCKY BEAR and ADRIANO. ELYSIUM fields may have just figured it out and the other two both come out of very fast races but they were not under similiar conditions to what they are attempting today.


ANAK NAKAL 4-1
COURT VISION 9-2
ELYSIUM FIELDS 10-1
KENTUCKY BEAR 8-1
ADRIANO 12-1


Good Luck.

John

[Robert Fischer]

nice job :ThmbUp:

[bobphilo]

John, thanks again for the PPs. I see some horses who's ratings differ from their Beyers which should offer value. The public is having a hard time settling on a choice which makes for better prices and allows me to cast a wider net in my Exacta picks.

I'm going for an Exacta box of Court Vision, Kentucky Bear, Monba and Anak Nakal. Good luck everyone.

Bob

[russowen77]

Cool Coal man ruined my day.:)

You figs sure gave me a live horse. I bet the 9 and 8 to win. Nice figs again.

[john del riccio]

There is NO way the times from this race should be trusted.


Stronach can't get the timer right after all these years.....its starting to become
comical.


John

[DanG]

There is NO way the times from this race should be trusted.

Stronach can't get the timer right after all these years.....its starting to become
comical.

John
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP022408USA9.pdf

Botched again John! :faint:

[classhandicapper]

John,

Without giving away trade secrets, would it be possible for you elaborate slightly on how you caclulate your class ratings for a race.

[john del riccio]

John,

Without giving away trade secrets, would it be possible for you elaborate slightly on how you caclulate your class ratings for a race.

class,


that may be difficult.

john