Fountain of Youth

[joeya]

Here is the field for Sunday's Fountain of Youth ... haven't seen any odds yet.

1. Cool Coal Man (Zito/Desormeaux)
2. Golden Spikes (Wolfson/Castellano)
3. Court Vision (Mott/Gomez)
4. Kentucky Bear (Baker/Trujillo)
5. Z Humor (Mott/Velasquez)
6. Ready Set (Matz/Lezcano)
7. Monba (Pletcher/Prado)
8. Anak Nakal (Zito/Leparoux)
9. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
10. Halo Najib (Romans/Douglas)
11. Make the Point (McLaughlin/Velazquez)
12. Adriano (Motion/Castro)

The surprise entries have to be Z Humor and Halo Najib ... Z Humor finished 5th as the favorite in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay last weekend after washing out badly in the paddock. Is Mott really going to run him back a week later? ... Halo Najib won a $150K stake at Ocala two weeks ago and it appeared he was going to be pointed for the Lane's End-G2 or Bluegrass-G1 so that he could stay on Polytrack (2 for 2 on synthetic, 0 for 3 on dirt).

Now ... let's take a look at the jockey rotation which intriques me quite a bit.

John Velazquez ... Pletcher's main man says "no thanks" to Monba and he gives up the mount on Cool Coal Man to stick with Make the Point. I would have loved to see this guy draw inside as he could have led them past every pole. Still think he has a big shot given his speed.

Garret Gomez ... another top rider who said "no thanks" to Monba (rode him in the Cash Call Futurity-G1) and he's also said "no thanks" to Z Humor whom he flew cross-country to ride last weekend. This time it's another cross-country trip to ride Mott's other runner Court Vision for the first time.

Kent Desormeaux ... aboard Halo Najib three straight races including the recent stakes win but he'll take over the seat vacated by Velazquez on Cool Coal Man.

Edgar Prado ... despite obvious connections to the owner/trainer of Ready Set (Barbaro connections) he has decided to jump ship for Monba.

What do I think of all this (for what it's worth) ... I think Make the Point is very live; I think Halo Najib and Z Humor may ultimately scratch (especially Halo Najib) given the jockey moves; I hate to call Edgar Prado a "3rd choice" but that's exactly what he appears to be for Pletcher as neither Velazquez or Gomez wanted Monba; and I think Gomez is climbing aboard Mott's top Derby contender in Court Vision. Yes, his last was slow, but he's already won over three different racetracks, he's the only multiple GSW in the field and the only stakes winner of any kind at this distance.

This is a race with numerous possibilities ... a great Derby prep and a great betting race. I'll be watching the early races closely to see if any bias is present (can be fast and speedy on the weekends) before zeroing in on this race.

Three days out I'm looking at a super box (which I never bet, just can't put them in order yet) of Court Vision, Kentucky Bear, Elysium Fields and Make the Point.

[john del riccio]

Here is the field for Sunday's Fountain of Youth ... haven't seen any odds yet.

1. Cool Coal Man (Zito/Desormeaux)
2. Golden Spikes (Wolfson/Castellano)
3. Court Vision (Mott/Gomez)
4. Kentucky Bear (Baker/Trujillo)
5. Z Humor (Mott/Velasquez)
6. Ready Set (Matz/Lezcano)
7. Monba (Pletcher/Prado)
8. Anak Nakal (Zito/Leparoux)
9. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
10. Halo Najib (Romans/Douglas)
11. Make the Point (McLaughlin/Velazquez)
12. Adriano (Motion/Castro)

The surprise entries have to be Z Humor and Halo Najib ... Z Humor finished 5th as the favorite in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay last weekend after washing out badly in the paddock. Is Mott really going to run him back a week later? ... Halo Najib won a $150K stake at Ocala two weeks ago and it appeared he was going to be pointed for the Lane's End-G2 or Bluegrass-G1 so that he could stay on Polytrack (2 for 2 on synthetic, 0 for 3 on dirt).

Now ... let's take a look at the jockey rotation which intriques me quite a bit.

John Velazquez ... Pletcher's main man says "no thanks" to Monba and he gives up the mount on Cool Coal Man to stick with Make the Point. I would have loved to see this guy draw inside as he could have led them past every pole. Still think he has a big shot given his speed.

Garret Gomez ... another top rider who said "no thanks" to Monba (rode him in the Cash Call Futurity-G1) and he's also said "no thanks" to Z Humor whom he flew cross-country to ride last weekend. This time it's another cross-country trip to ride Mott's other runner Court Vision for the first time.

Kent Desormeaux ... aboard Halo Najib three straight races including the recent stakes win but he'll take over the seat vacated by Velazquez on Cool Coal Man.

Edgar Prado ... despite obvious connections to the owner/trainer of Ready Set (Barbaro connections) he has decided to jump ship for Monba.

What do I think of all this (for what it's worth) ... I think Make the Point is very live; I think Halo Najib and Z Humor may ultimately scratch (especially Halo Najib) given the jockey moves; I hate to call Edgar Prado a "3rd choice" but that's exactly what he appears to be for Pletcher as neither Velazquez or Gomez wanted Monba; and I think Gomez is climbing aboard Mott's top Derby contender in Court Vision. Yes, his last was slow, but he's already won over three different racetracks, he's the only multiple GSW in the field and the only stakes winner of any kind at this distance.

This is a race with numerous possibilities ... a great Derby prep and a great betting race. I'll be watching the early races closely to see if any bias is present (can be fast and speedy on the weekends) before zeroing in on this race.

Three days out I'm looking at a super box (which I never bet, just can't put them in order yet) of Court Vision, Kentucky Bear, Elysium Fields and Make the Point.

Joey,

I'll put up the figs for the FOY later today, looks like a decent race.

John

[whyhorseofcourse]

Thanks for posting this.
Gives me more to think about before the race. :p

[Robert Fischer]

Very nice analysis.

Monba is in a position where he must show and prove. No more hints of talent. I love the way he was ridden as so much the best in the win @ Chuchill, and I love his monster finish over the goofy track in the cashcall race, but this opportunity should tell us much more about whether or not this horse is really a triple crown contender.

I think Desormeaux will give Cool Coal Man a nice ride here, although the horse should be a cut below the winner.

Hard to leave what may be Zito's best, out of a superfecta here, but there are a lot of nice prices and enough good horses that things could go a number of ways.

Good Luck :ThmbUp:

[FlyinLate]

Garret Gomez ... another top rider who said "no thanks" to Monba (rode him in the Cash Call Futurity-G1) and he's also said "no thanks" to Z Humor whom he flew cross-country to ride last weekend. This time it's another cross-country trip to ride Mott's other runner Court Vision for the first time.


I'm glad Gomez didn't board Monba. His ride on Monba in the CashCall was absolutely awful. Had Gomez taken him to the outside rather than veering around in the lane like a mad man, he could have nipped Into Mischief for the win.

[Bubbles]

This race is definitely wide-open. For the contest, I settled on Monba, Make The Point, and, on a smaller scale, Elysium Fields.

The one thing that DOES stand out is that the race sets up for a frontrunner. There are some stalker types, but Make The Point appears to be the only true early speed. If he can break well out of the 11-hole and set manageable fractions, he may be tough to pass when the real running starts.

[oddsmaven]

It's wide open all right...part of me wants to try Make the Point, clearing from the outside, but between lack of route experience and the dismal effort when trying good ones, I'll look elsewhere.

Not willing to trust fitness on those making '08 debuts, so will select Halo Najib...one knock is 0-3 dirt, but closer examination says that those efforts were decent considering it was the three times he was in against graded competition.

A concern is that Kent is hopping off http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/E3.gif , but maybe the jock agents are finding this race as difficult as it looks.

[OTM Al]

Starters outside the 6 hole at 1 1/8 miles at GP are highly compromised by the short run into the turn. I have 104 1 1/8 m races in my db since 2006. 87 were won by post positions 1-6 and only 3 were won by posts 9 or 10 (none higher) and 2 of those were named Brass Hat and Barbaro. I know this should be adjusted to number of starters, but since fields tend to be of a decent size at this meet I think these numbers say a lot on their own. So if you like the one coming out of the 11 hole (I haven't looked yet so just speaking to track trends here) and he does actually win, put some big time futures bets on him because he would have been not just better than the rest of the field, but extremely better.

[JPinMaryland]

I think w/ Halo Najib he needs the graded earnings as the OCala BC was not graded at least I think it wasnt. Not sure what they are doing with Z Humor here.

[ponyplayer]

I really believe Court Vision has to be considered here....If he doesn't win, I think he will at least be in the tri...

[fiveouttasix]

They reported on HRTV that Monba's rider switch to Prado was the choice of the owners who have a history with Prado.

[russowen77]

I like the 8. He could probably use a little more ground but he can definetely get 9 with no problem.

[how cliche]

Here is what I thought after running through the field for 5 minutes. I'm a fast handicapper. Normal techniques lead me to Court Vision who has decent current form, and has already accumulated the credentials to post the victory. However, I'm likely to pass a race when I find the obvious & it still looks like they're more likely to lose than win. I had some more advanced kinds of research still to do. I decided to reexamine the horses with bullet workouts leading up to the race. Usually this avenue comes up empty. Not this time.


I think there's one horse who has taken to Gulfstream Park like the proverberial duck to water. Barclay Tagg's trainee ELYSIUM FIELDS. His most recent 5f drill on the 18th was the fastest of 24 and a full second faster than the second fastest worker at the distance, Einstein. The training was slow that day with the fastest 4f drill being :48 and Elysium Field's 5f work being :58&1. He broke his maiden easily last out at the track and trip. The question now becomes: When trained handily is Einstein a fast worker?

It's always asking a lot of a youngster to break his maiden & then go in a graded race next out. If the answer is yes, Einstein is indeed a fast workhorse it would behoove me to give Tagg's horse extra consideration & interpret him as one who's currently blossoming in south Florida.

Here are some quotes from drf.com articles.

About Einstein's 2nd fastest drill on the 18th, trainer Helen Pitts said, "Einstein's work was awesome...The best of his career." It flatters Elysium Field's drill from the same day, distance and track. Furthermore, earlier today Einstein won the Gulfstream Park Handicap(G1).

Trainer Barclay Tagg's thoughts on entering a last out maiden winner in the prestigious FOY. "This horse improved six months in the last three weeks. He's put on 50 pounds, mostly muscle, since his last race, and if he improves as much in the Fountain of Youth as he did in his last start, he belongs." Tagg articulated what I'd handicapped. The spring 3 year old is a funny animal. Elysium Fields could very easily jump up and win this race. I remember a horse named Balto Star years back splashing on the scene winning the Spiral(G2) at Turfway going from a lifetime best 90 beyer speed figure to 110 in a single race.

I did some further result chart research about his last out maiden score where he romped home by open lengths. There have been 3 next out winners who exit that try, indicating it is a probable key race & further flatters his case.

When I like a runner in a marquee race I really try to dot my i's and cross my t's. Articles help.

Finally we come to his true chances of winning. The chances of him going through dramatic improvement that both Tagg and I have speculated is 50%. The chances of him winning should he indeed move way up is 60%. His true chances of winning are therefore 30% & his true odds are 5/2, imo. His morning line is 15-1. Consequently, I will bet him in the FOY. Win or lose I'll play horses like this every time and have no regrets.

[FlyinLate]

Here is what I thought after running through the field for 5 minutes. I'm a fast handicapper. Normal techniques lead me to Court Vision who has decent current form, and has already accumulated the credentials to post the victory. However, I'm likely to pass a race when I find the obvious & it still looks like they're more likely to lose than win. I had some more advanced kinds of research still to do. I decided to reexamine the horses with bullet workouts leading up to the race. Usually this avenue comes up empty. Not this time.


I think there's one horse who has taken to Gulfstream Park like the proverberial duck to water. Barclay Tagg's trainee ELYSIUM FIELDS. His most recent 5f drill on the 18th was the fastest of 24 and a full second faster than the second fastest worker at the distance, Einstein. The training was slow that day with the fastest 4f drill being :48 and Elysium Field's 5f work being :58&1. He broke his maiden easily last out at the track and trip. The question now becomes: When trained handily is Einstein a fast worker?

It's always asking a lot of a youngster to break his maiden & then go in a graded race next out. If the answer is yes, Einstein is indeed a fast workhorse it would behoove me to give Tagg's horse extra consideration & interpret him as one who's currently blossoming in south Florida.

Here are some quotes from drf.com articles.

About Einstein's 2nd fastest drill on the 18th, trainer Helen Pitts said, "Einstein's work was awesome...The best of his career." It flatters Elysium Field's drill from the same day, distance and track. Furthermore, earlier today Einstein won the Gulfstream Park Handicap(G1).

Trainer Barclay Tagg's thoughts on entering a last out maiden winner in the prestigious FOY. "This horse improved six months in the last three weeks. He's put on 50 pounds, mostly muscle, since his last race, and if he improves as much in the Fountain of Youth as he did in his last start, he belongs." Tagg articulated what I'd handicapped. The spring 3 year old is a funny animal. Elysium Fields could very easily jump up and win this race. I remember a horse named Balto Star years back splashing on the scene winning the Spiral(G2) at Turfway going from a lifetime best 90 beyer speed figure to 110 in a single race.

I did some further result chart research about his last out maiden score where he romped home by open lengths. There have been 3 next out winners who exit that try, indicating it is a probable key race & further flatters his case.

When I like a runner in a marquee race I really try to dot my i's and cross my t's. Articles help.

Finally we come to his true chances of winning. The chances of him going through dramatic improvement that both Tagg and I have speculated is 50%. The chances of him winning should he indeed move way up is 60%. His true chances of winning are therefore 30% & his true odds are 5/2, imo. His morning line is 15-1. Consequently, I will bet him in the FOY. Win or lose I'll play horses like this every time and have no regrets.

Excellent write-up! I'm going to have to take a close look at this tomorrow.

[oddsmaven]

Here is what I thought after running through the field for 5 minutes...........(see original post for details)
...........
........ The chances of him winning should he indeed move way up is 60%. His true chances of winning are therefore 30% & his true odds are 5/2, imo.

I enjoyed your thoughts on Tagg's horse and it may well be a terrific bet, but maybe 5 minutes is too little time to evaluate a competitive 12 horse field and come away with any kind of an accurate win chance % for your pick...I don't think you spent any time on the other contenders except a minute on Court Vision...Tagg's words are strong, but many a trainer like their own horse...I would like to see more in his race record rather than bank on an excellent work & trainer comments...losses vs Laurel & Calder maidens aren't good and he only paid $7.00 at Gulfstream, so whatever field he beat couldn't have been very tough maidens.

[FlyinLate]

I enjoyed your thoughts on Tagg's horse and it may well be a terrific bet, but maybe 5 minutes is too little time to evaluate a competitive 12 horse field and come away with any kind of an accurate win chance % for your pick...I don't think you spent any time on the other contenders except a minute on Court Vision...Tagg's words are strong, but many a trainer like their own horse...I would like to see more in his race record rather than bank on an excellent work & trainer comments...losses vs Laurel & Calder maidens aren't good and he only paid $7.00 at Gulfstream, so whatever field he beat couldn't have been very tough maidens.

Read the whole paragraph :lol:

It says he took 5 minutes at first but had to go deeper where he found the bullet works of the Tagg trainee.

[rokitman]

The spring 3 year old is a funny animal. Elysium Fields could very easily jump up and win this race.


I agree that 3 YO's can jump way up at this time of year. But the valuation you did assumes that EF is the only horse in the race to do the jump.

If I ignore the above and double HTR's (which I think does a damn good job with probabilty) "best case" win percentage it still only comes to 6-7%.

I think EF will be a big underlay.

He sure is snapping off the super-duper workouts since that last race though!

[FlyinLate]

I agree that 3 YO's can jump way up at this time of year. But the valuation you did assumes that EF is the only horse in the race to do the jump.

If I ignore the above and double HTR's (which I think does a damn good job with probabilty) "best case" win percentage it still only comes to 6-7%.

I think EF will be a big underlay.

He sure is snapping off the super-duper workouts since that last race though!

Underlay? I don't personally see that happening.

I see most of the general public hammering court vision and monba to around co-favorites at 5-2. Horses like Kentucky Bear and Elysium Fields who are just off maiden victories I see going off at their ML or better.

[how cliche]

Thanks for the replies guys. You fellows are both correct. The original choice was made after a surface run through of information only. The bullet workout and article research came after good amount of time sleuthing out dead ends.

I didn't travel down that avenue of investigation until I'd also reviewed some video, thorograph sheets & the 3 versions of free pp's: drf, drf+Mossfigs & bris. The three pp's all indicated the same thing. That the race is wide open and I should isolate a runner who looks like he's ready to explode/needs the graded earnings. My interpretation of the graphs slightly pointed me towards the 2nd time starter Kentucky Bear, who I'm much more inclined to play in his second try against winners and third lifetime start. That horse is one fast sucker who may be heard from down the line.

You are also correct insofar as once I find my horse I stop handicapping. It is a simultaneous flaw and attribute. This is how I've posted the largest wins in my playing career. I take a stand in what looks like a wide open race with a price horse who I can make a strong case for. I understand why I fancy him and nobody else stands out in my mind. When I'm right, I get paid...well paid. 5/2 is indeed subjective, but it is my opinion, and it still leaves him with a 70% probability for failure.

The strongest asset a player posesses is his own opinion. I will play mine this afternoon.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay I understand what you're saying but why is Court Vision in "fine current form?" Hasnt raced in 3 months and the last workout looks not good.

[juanepstein]

theres alot of horses that are gonna be up on the pace and when you move up in distance the more forward a horse will be. so MONBA shows hes in the rear at 1 1/16th which will put him closer for a sweet run today.

[Robert Fischer]

adriano looks pretty too bad hes post 12

[Tom]

Another no-race by this crop.
Is anyone this year capable of running a real race time?
25+ 49+ we call maiden races at Finger Lakes. Cheap maiden races.
This is one fast crop of three year olds. :lol:

[DanG]

If anyone believes that nearly 26 second 1st ¼ they posted, I’ve got some swamp land on Mars for sale. :faint: That leader was quarter horsed to the lead.

That army surplus timer equipment GP uses should be thrown into the infield lake! :eek:

[Tom]

They should sell it to SA, where times don't mean anything anyways!

[FlyinLate]

Anybody betting against War Pass in the 10th? This is like bridge jumper heaven here.

[DanG]

Of course it was a workout, but what an effortless stride War Pass has…just a beautiful moving animal. :ThmbUp:

Next stop Tampa!!! :jump:

[uscsilb24]

for those of us who didnt see the race, what happened with war pass

[DanG]

for those of us who didnt see the race, what happened with war pass
Literally a paid workout without a straw in his path. He looked perfect before, during and after. Never asked in any way and had the stride that only the very good ones have.

[russowen77]

Funny how we see different things when we watch one run. I still think he is a great looking miler and today made no difference in my opinion. He had a claimer running a little bit at him at the end and I think his stride shortened a hair late.

He is sure one beautiful horse.

[alhattab]

Nice Call Dan G

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=43787

23:2, 46:4, 1:10:4, 1:37, 1:49:2

[DanG]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=43787

23:2, 46:4, 1:10:4, 1:37, 1:49:2
Thanks for that link Al. :ThmbUp:

Just brutal timing of races down there for so many years it’s almost mind-boggling. :bang:

[cj]

If anyone believes that nearly 26 second 1st ¼ they posted, I’ve got some swamp land on Mars for sale. :faint: That leader was quarter horsed to the lead.

That army surplus timer equipment GP uses should be thrown into the infield lake! :eek:

I just watched the replay...there is no way with that short run to the turn they would ever go that slow. Gulfstream is a joke.

[russowen77]

Could I ask how the ones of you who do figs compensate for that?

Does the runoff distance change a lot there or is there other reasons?

I am just interested really. Handicapping is really facinating stuff to me , even if I do have days like today. I got bailed out by the last two races at Oaklawn today or it would have been rough.

Anyway, thanks in advance for any data.

[JPinMaryland]

I was looking at the splits at GP and just shaking my head. I think on the timer there the leaders came home in 13.5 which would make them likely throw outs for sure...What the hell is going on there?

[jonnielu]

Another no-race by this crop.
Is anyone this year capable of running a real race time?
25+ 49+ we call maiden races at Finger Lakes. Cheap maiden races.
This is one fast crop of three year olds. :lol:

Hey Tom,

Give em a chance, they will be bringing it and the giddyup will get better. The who's who is just getting started.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Of course it was a workout, but what an effortless stride War Pass has…just a beautiful moving animal. :ThmbUp:

Next stop Tampa!!! :jump:

War Pass is the quality of the crop, the only one revealed to date as Triple Crown material. There could be a couple of late bloomers coming along though.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I just watched the replay...there is no way with that short run to the turn they would ever go that slow. Gulfstream is a joke.

Does anyone figure that full tilt boogey, run your eyeballs out, is the best way to stretch out to 9f?
jdl

[cj]

Does anyone figure that full tilt boogey, run your eyeballs out, is the best way to stretch out to 9f?
jdl

Given the complete lack of success of horse breaking outside in 9f races since GP was redone, I would say it must have some merit.

[jonnielu]

Given the complete lack of success of horse breaking outside in 9f races since GP was redone, I would say it must have some merit.

Wouldn't it figure that a short run to the first turn would be a natural challenge for the outside positions. It would seem that the able horse would be better off to take back then to run for a position here.

jdl

[Tom]

It's either the timer or this....:lol:

[oddsmaven]

I gotta come back and say that "my scoffing" of the little amount of time How Cliche's spent on this race proved unwarranted...and actually it was the minimal time on every other horse but his choice, so my wording was wrong too.
Personally, I need to give careful study to the whole field, but he posted later how he focuses primarily on something he likes and it works for him - and his pick indeed ran strong at 8:1...his reasons made sense and I was guilty of overeacting to his 30% win chance comment.

[highnote]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=43787

23:2, 46:4, 1:10:4, 1:37, 1:49:2


Maybe they had the timer at the gate? It looks like there is some kind of box on the rail in-line with the gate.

According to the clock on the replay screen the race started at 5:17:32 and they hit the finish line at 5:19:24 -- that's 1 minute and 52 seconds. The "official" time was 1:51.85.

I hand timed the race several times. When I timed from the gate I got about 1:52.00.

I also timed from where I thought the beam should be -- at the pole about 6 seconds after the gate.

I had a hard time getting a consistent time for the first 1/4. I got fractions that ranged from 24.05 to 24.31.

I got 1/2 times of 47.55 to 47.68.

My 3/4 times were identical 4 times in a row. 1:11.49. I'll assume that's pretty accurate.

1 mile 137.52

Final 149.55 to 150.02.

So I'm estimating something like 24.25, 47.60, 111.49, 137.50, 150.00.

[how cliche]

I gotta come back and say that "my scoffing" of the little amount of time How Cliche's spent on this race proved unwarranted...and actually it was the minimal time on every other horse but his choice, so my wording was wrong too.
Personally, I need to give careful study to the whole field, but he posted later how he focuses primarily on something he likes and it works for him - and his pick indeed ran strong at 8:1...his reasons made sense and I was guilty of overeacting to his 30% win chance comment.

I wound up playing the horse too heavy on top and not enough in the backwheel exacta. Not the most efficient way to back him up, but it's okay. Basically an $80-$20 investment & out just $175. Not how we dream it up is it.

$80win #9

$2 exacta ALL with 9.

[Norm]

So I'm estimating something like 24.25, 47.60, 111.49, 137.50, 150.00.
Sounds like you're right on. Here's a quote from an article posted on the DRF website this evening -

"Cool Coal Man ($16.60), a son of Mineshaft owned by Robert LaPenta, was officially credited with covering a mile and one eighth in 1:51.85. Daily Racing Form, clocking the race off the replay, timed the opening quarter mile in :24.10 and the final time in 1:50.17"

An interesting footnote : just after the race, the DRF put up a chart showing a final time of 1:51 4/5. Now, the chart is revised and reads 1:49 2/5. But, they don't seem to believe that either as the quote above suggests. Strange.

[highnote]

So I'm estimating something like 24.25, 47.60, 111.49, 137.50, 150.00.

Now the DRF charts says:

23.56, 46.93, 1:10.80, 1:37.00 and 1:49.53.

I hand timed the race about 4 times. How could the times of DRF be so different from mine?

Maybe it's due to parallax distortion from the camera angle on the replay?

[highnote]

Now the DRF charts says:

23.56, 46.93, 1:10.80, 1:37.00 and 1:49.53.

I hand timed the race about 4 times. How could the times of DRF be so different from mine?

Maybe it's due to parallax distortion from the camera angle on the replay?


I went back and hand timed the race about a dozen more times. I realized I did have a slight error on all the fractions except the first 1/4. The error is because it took me a second to see the poles and then hit the "lap" button on my stop watch. The delayed reaction is about .25 seconds.

So my new times are 23.75, 47.22, 111.25, 137.00 and 149.75.

I'm still not certain about the 8f time, but it's the same as DRF's.

In every fraction except the 8f DRF and I differ by about .25 seconds.

I don't know which are correct, but we're close. DRF may have a better replay than me, so I'd use their times.

[rokitman]

I wound up playing the horse too heavy on top and not enough in the backwheel exacta. Not the most efficient way to back him up, but it's okay. Basically an $80-$20 investment & out just $175. Not how we dream it up is it.

$80win #9

$2 exacta ALL with 9.Real nice job ferreting out EF's "jump." He ran what could have easily been a winning race.

Weird how so many of the expected contenders in a race considered super-deep didn't do damn thing. The extreme humidity down there? I know I have no tolerance for it. It's awful.

[DanG]

The extreme humidity down there? I know I have no tolerance for it. It's awful.
Sorry about the “drift”…couldn’t resist…

My enduring memory this time of year living in Jersey was literally using my girls hair dryer to unthaw the lock to my car. I swore then…never again! :D

http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/418730/2/istockphoto_418730_guy_shoveling_snow.jpg

[how cliche]

Real nice job ferreting out EF's "jump." He ran what could have easily been a winning race.

Weird how so many of the expected contenders in a race considered super-deep didn't do damn thing. The extreme humidity down there? I know I have no tolerance for it. It's awful.


I now see why just Barbaro & Brass Hat are the only stakes winners @ GP from the 9 post and out going 1 1/8. There wasn't a lot Coa could do. Ground loss doomed EF's chances for victory. He raced pretty well considering how many additional lengths he had to travel.

I dislike the perfect trip winner to do anything else en route to or through the triple crown unless he improves dramatically. No way should a quality 3yo save all the ground, sit a perfect tracking trip alone in the clear behind the pacesetters, swing out only for the drive & let a horse who was wide both turns come back at you in the final sixteenth & pass you shortly after the wire. When he kicked clear he should've kept opening up. I think he got very tired moreso than EF rerallied.

Hindsight is 20/20. Considering the 9 post and the short run to the 1st turn, I booked EF too heavy on top and too light in the exacta back wheel. I was correct that he'd run a big race. When you're right you wanna get paid & perhaps I ought to have placed a 50w/ $5 backwheel. Y'know?

If I only knew then what I know now.

[john del riccio]

I say we ask them to run the race again......:bang:

JOhn

[john del riccio]

Sorry about the “drift”…couldn’t resist…

My enduring memory this time of year living in Jersey was literally using my girls hair dryer to unthaw the lock to my car. I swore then…never again! :D

http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/418730/2/istockphoto_418730_guy_shoveling_snow.jpg


Are you gettin' soft......?

John

[DanG]

Are you gettin' soft......?

John
LOL! :D


Guilty as charged…I love so many things about the Jersey / NY area, but I could never endure those temps again John.

Sorry…back on topic.

[joeya]

From Bloodhorse.com ... (02/28/08)

Upon review, the fractions and final time for the Feb. 24 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) have been adjusted, with Gulfstream Park’s official final time for the 1 1/8-mile race now to be listed as 1:50.07.
The official fractions for the race, won by Cool Coal Man, are :24.03 for the first quarter, :47.62 for the half-mile, 1:11.52 for six furlongs and 1:36.32 for the mile. Bernie Hettel, Gulfstream Park’s Racing Operations Manager, timed the race.

“I looked at it three times, hand timing it each time, and those are the fractions and final that we keep coming up with,” Hettel said in a release issued by the track. “As this was hand-timed, there may be some incremental differences from clocker to clocker, but we are satisfied with what we have found.”

The timing of the race was put under review when it was determined that an outrider and his pony, stationed about 20 feet in front of the starting gate, crossed in front of the timer and tripped it before the lead horse reached the mark.

[john del riccio]

From Bloodhorse.com ... (02/28/08)

Upon review, the fractions and final time for the Feb. 24 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) have been adjusted, with Gulfstream Park’s official final time for the 1 1/8-mile race now to be listed as 1:50.07.
The official fractions for the race, won by Cool Coal Man, are :24.03 for the first quarter, :47.62 for the half-mile, 1:11.52 for six furlongs and 1:36.32 for the mile. Bernie Hettel, Gulfstream Park’s Racing Operations Manager, timed the race.

“I looked at it three times, hand timing it each time, and those are the fractions and final that we keep coming up with,” Hettel said in a release issued by the track. “As this was hand-timed, there may be some incremental differences from clocker to clocker, but we are satisfied with what we have found.”

The timing of the race was put under review when it was determined that an outrider and his pony, stationed about 20 feet in front of the starting gate, crossed in front of the timer and tripped it before the lead horse reached the mark.


Moe, Larry, and Curly coudn't do better.....next time a Flamingo who lost his way from HIA will trip the timer and Stronach will be forced to give the track to Brunetti....:rolleyes:

John

[highnote]

won by Cool Coal Man, are :24.03 for the first quarter, :47.62 for the half-mile, 1:11.52 for six furlongs and 1:36.32 for the mile. Bernie Hettel, Gulfstream Park’s Racing Operations Manager, timed the race.[/i]

[i]I looked at it three times, hand timing it each time,

I would have thought GP would have hand timed it more than 3 times. Hell, I hand timed it at least a dozen and times and started correcting for my own errors in hitting the timer button.

It is interesting to note that their times are extremely close to the times I came up with when I first started timing from the video. Then after reviewing the race over and over I was able to anticipate when the poles would appear on the screen. So my hand timing got more accurate the more I watched the video.

But here's the thing I don't understand. Why don't they take a copy of the race on videotape and "burn" a time code window onto the tape? They must have editing equipment in their TV studio. Hell, I could dump a copy of the video into my computer and do the same. Maybe I will just for the hell of it.

There are 29.97 frames of video per second. So they can measure the race to 1/30th of a second. Once they burn the time code window they could freeze frame at each call and note the time code. That would be far more accurate than hand timing.

[rokitman]

From Bloodhorse.com ... (02/28/08)

Upon review, the fractions and final time for the Feb. 24 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) have been adjusted, with Gulfstream Park’s official final time for the 1 1/8-mile race now to be listed as 1:50.07.
The official fractions for the race, won by Cool Coal Man, are :24.03 for the first quarter, :47.62 for the half-mile, 1:11.52 for six furlongs and 1:36.32 for the mile. Bernie Hettel, Gulfstream Park’s Racing Operations Manager, timed the race.

“I looked at it three times, hand timing it each time, and those are the fractions and final that we keep coming up with,” Hettel said in a release issued by the track. “As this was hand-timed, there may be some incremental differences from clocker to clocker, but we are satisfied with what we have found.”

The timing of the race was put under review when it was determined that an outrider and his pony, stationed about 20 feet in front of the starting gate, crossed in front of the timer and tripped it before the lead horse reached the mark.
That's interesting.

Before that race started I was watching the ambulance as it crept forward past the starting gate, passing the tractor, just before the race was going to start, which I thought was really dumb. Not for any timing reason. Just that a large, motorized moving vehicle was working it's way into the horses vision just before they were to come out of the gate. And what did they accomplish? Nothing.

[JPinMaryland]

Weird how so many of the expected contenders in a race considered super-deep didn't do damn thing. The extreme humidity down there?

I find this to be the most appropo summary. I decided to hammer Anak Nakal when he climbed to 10-1 from morning line 6-1. I dont think he was ever in it. Nowr was Court Vision; the ml fav. The punters made Pletcher's horse the fav and he may have made a move at one pt. The bettors also hammered (relatively) two of the newcomers: Cool Coal Miner and Elysian Fields. I had circled them the night before but when the came down from the morning line I figured they were not good value and simply went with a value play based on morning line, my bad...

Good ride by Desormeux I guess. We criticize him so much but he moved on the turn and no one else went w/ him.

[DanG]

I find this to be the most appropo summary. I decided to hammer Anak Nakal when he climbed to 10-1 from morning line 6-1. I dont think he was ever in it. Nowr was Court Vision; the ml fav. The punters made Pletcher's horse the fav and he may have made a move at one pt.

Good ride by Desormeux I guess. We criticize him so much but he moved on the turn and no one else went w/ him.
Couple observations JP…

If you watch the replay, this was a very dirty 1st turn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xt9SdwiNmIw

Court Vision ran fine imo, against the grain of the track. Circled 8 horses like they were tied to a post and finished with good energy. (This is a very nice racehorse btw)

Monba got sawed off in the first turn and came back bleeding significantly.

Cool Coal Miner got the absolute dream run at GP. That made the 18th fst 9f dirt race at GP this meet and that’s an amazing 13 wins for the 1 or 2 box. GP has always been a track where a burst entering the lane is paramount and Kent was in position to take advantage.

Very hard to argue that Tagg’s place horse (Elysium Fields) wasn’t superior to the winner by any measure except getting the trophy.

[russowen77]

Here is an article about the timing issues.

On Monday, the fractions and final time for Sunday's Fountain of Youth S. (G2) were adjusted for the second time, with Gulfstream Park's official final time for the 1 1/8-mile race won by COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) now to be listed as 1:50.07.

The official fractions for the event are :24.03 for the first quarter, :47.62 for the half-mile, 1:11.52 for six furlongs and 1:36.32 for the mile on the fast track.

Bernie Hettel, Gulfstream Park's Racing Operations Manager, timed the race.

"I looked at it three times, hand timing it each time, and those are the fractions and final that we keep coming up with," he said. "As this was hand-timed, there may be some incremental differences from clocker to clocker, but we are satisfied with what we have found."

According to Gulfstream Park, the timing of the race was put under review when it was determined that an outrider and his pony, stationed about 20 feet in front of the starting gate, crossed in front of the timer and tripped it before the lead horse reached the mark.

The first published version of the chart listed the fractions as a dawdling :25 3/5, :49 1/5, 1:13 and 1:38 1/5, with a final time of 1:51 4/5. That was later revised, with the second version of the chart reporting much faster splits of :23 2/5, :46 4/5, 1:10 4/5 and 1:37 en route to a significantly quicker final time of 1:49 2/5. The final revision, issued Monday afternoon, lies between those two extremes.

[highnote]

Steve Crist wrote in his blog the best idea I've seen regarding the timer issue of the Fountain of Youth. He said there is no reason to doubt that the sectional times are wrong. So all you have to do is time the first quarter and then add the sectional increments to arrive at the final time.

I have no problem with the "official" times DRF has come up with.

[john del riccio]

Steve Crist wrote in his blog the best idea I've seen regarding the timer issue of the Fountain of Youth. He said there is no reason to doubt that the sectional times are wrong. So all you have to do is time the first quarter and then add the sectional increments to arrive at the final time.

I have no problem with the "official" times DRF has come up with.

Sweet,

The time was changed 3 times. I don't trust it. I completely ignored the published time and did the race as a brekout using just th ehorses. Its in my opinion, the best way to go, That place is a joke. get it right Frank, you have more money than God but you can't get a clock to work ?

Pathetic.

John

[highnote]

Sweet,

The time was changed 3 times. I don't trust it. I completely ignored the published time and did the race as a brekout using just th ehorses. Its in my opinion, the best way to go, That place is a joke. get it right Frank, you have more money than God but you can't get a clock to work ?

Pathetic.

John


What times did you come up with?

I'm going to redo the race again and see what I come up with. It difficult to get the sectional times off of the video because of parallax distortion. So I will just try to measure the first quarter and then trust the internal fractions from the timer. Then I'll see how far the internal fractions are from my hand timed internal fractions.

[john del riccio]

What times did you come up with?

I'm going to redo the race again and see what I come up with. It difficult to get the sectional times off of the video because of parallax distortion. So I will just try to measure the first quarter and then trust the internal fractions from the timer. Then I'll see how far the internal fractions are from my hand timed internal fractions.


I didn't want to introduce human error by timing it. When I saw those horses getting asked for run out of the gate & the 1/4 split was 25 & change I knew there was an issue. I've seen enough grass races where no on ewant sth elead and the 1/4 goes in 25 to kno wwhat horses strides look like when they aren't being asked.

Time will tell if I made the right call (no pun intended)

John

[rokitman]

I now see why just Barbaro & Brass Hat are the only stakes winners @ GP from the 9 post and out going 1 1/8. There wasn't a lot Coa could do. Ground loss doomed EF's chances for victory. He raced pretty well considering how many additional lengths he had to travel.

I dislike the perfect trip winner to do anything else en route to or through the triple crown unless he improves dramatically. No way should a quality 3yo save all the ground, sit a perfect tracking trip alone in the clear behind the pacesetters, swing out only for the drive & let a horse who was wide both turns come back at you in the final sixteenth & pass you shortly after the wire. When he kicked clear he should've kept opening up. I think he got very tired moreso than EF rerallied.

Hindsight is 20/20. Considering the 9 post and the short run to the 1st turn, I booked EF too heavy on top and too light in the exacta back wheel. I was correct that he'd run a big race. When you're right you wanna get paid & perhaps I ought to have placed a 50w/ $5 backwheel. Y'know?

If I only knew then what I know now.Nah, you did the right thing. You ferreted out a nice play. You took your swing. As it should be. :ThmbUp:

[rokitman]

LOL! :D


Guilty as charged…I love so many things about the Jersey / NY area, but I could never endure those temps again John.

Sorry…back on topic.I know the feeling!

[JPinMaryland]

Steve Crist wrote in his blog the best idea I've seen regarding the timer issue of the Fountain of Youth. He said there is no reason to doubt that the sectional times are wrong. So all you have to do is time the first quarter and then add the sectional increments to arrive at the final time.

I have no problem with the "official" times DRF has come up with.


I dont understand what Steve Crist is talking about, every time they changed the times, the fractions changed too. The final eight time has varied from 13.6 to 12.4.

What the hell is Crist talking about? Seriously I dont understand why he thinks it is so simple... :confused:

[MakinItHappen]

I dont understand what Steve Crist is talking about, every time they changed the times, the fractions changed too. The final eight time has varied from 13.6 to 12.4.

What the hell is Crist talking about? Seriously I dont understand why he thinks it is so simple... :confused:

I believe Crist's POV is based upon the premise that the timer was tripped prematurely at the start of the race. If that is indeed the only problem, then all fractional times would be individually correct after the first quarter.

Joeya incorporated the following Bloodhorse quote in one of his earlier posts. Perhaps this will help clarify.

From Bloodhorse.com ... (02/28/08)
The timing of the race was put under review when it was determined that an outrider and his pony, stationed about 20 feet in front of the starting gate, crossed in front of the timer and tripped it before the lead horse reached the mark.


Best of Luck To Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[Tom]

Sweet,

The time was changed 3 times. I don't trust it. I completely ignored the published time and did the race as a brekout using just th ehorses. Its in my opinion, the best way to go, That place is a joke. get it right Frank, you have more money than God but you can't get a clock to work ?

Pathetic.

John

Maybe it's true, John - Franky is so ugly his face will stop a clock!:lol::lol::lol:

[cj]

I dont understand what Steve Crist is talking about, every time they changed the times, the fractions changed too. The final eight time has varied from 13.6 to 12.4.

What the hell is Crist talking about? Seriously I dont understand why he thinks it is so simple... :confused:

Because nobody is debating that the final 7 furlongs, electronically timed, were accurate. Now we are getting manual replacements which are probably wrong.

[JPinMaryland]

THe why do the internal fractions keep changing. The fourth quarter was 25 1/5 the first published, then 26 1/5 the second time, now its 24.8.

Maybe it's time to re-check my medication levels.... :faint:

[cj]

They changed because Gulfstream didn't use the last 7 furlongs as correct, they hand timed every call. There are alway going to be errors when you hand time.

[Tom]

It's always fun to watch the inept in action - GP is a joke!
Remember Mr Rogers when he asked the audience - "Do you know what time it is?" :lol::lol::lol: