re: Maiden Claimers: How low will you go?

[rufus999]

Since I'm not going to provide this post with a chart illustrating purse levels as they relate to track quality, lets keep it hypothetical with the terms MSW's, high end, and low end claimers. Just how far down the food chain are you willing to drop when wagering on these animals?

We all see our fair share of these contests played out every day in all their gruesome glory and I, for one, find it hard to resist dropping a few bucks down every once in a while if for nothing else than the quick fix it provides until something more promising comes along. I guess I am more forgiving than others in that respect... but I do find all races interesting to a certain degree.
All thoughts, random and otherwise, are welcome.:cool:

rufus

[46zilzal]

All of them, when they are ready, project pretty much the same way: improving early speed.

Horses don't know their class structure.

[Tom]

I play maiden claiming $3500 3yo fillies at FL.
IS there anything lower? :rolleyes:
(That doesn't bark)

[rufus999]

Horses don't know their class structure.

All animals exist within a biologically inherent caste system. They might not be conciously aware of it and certainly could not argue the point, but I do believe it exists. That we choose to gauge that class edge in dollar amounts when dealing with race horses is no more than a simple,yet effective, convenience.

rufus

[GaryG]

I do pretty well with the $8000 maidens at Tampa. They pay off the same as graded stakes, so I don't look down my nose at them. Class droppers are always dangerous at the bottom. Same with the $12,500 state-breds at FG.

[46zilzal]

All animals exist within a biologically inherent caste system. They might not be conciously aware of it and certainly could not argue the point, but I do believe it exists. That we choose to gauge that class edge in dollar amounts when dealing with race horses is no more than a simple,yet effective, convenience.




All animals.....my goodness where did you learn that?

Read On Aggression by Konrad Lorenz, classical studies in animal behavior which differs markedly by species, herd, pack, isolated etc.

Horsewatching by Desmond Morris.....It is not as obvious as many in the racing world might overlay human attributes to these animals. They run, mostly in a controlled sympathomimetic "fight or flight" way.

I love horses but they are controlled more by instinct than intellect.

[cj]

I love maiden claimers. I'll bet the lowest that are carded, provided the track times the races with fractions.

[Pace Cap'n]

Heck, I bet The Woodlands. Check that one out on the track ratings.

[rufus999]

All animals.....my goodness where did you learn that?




"Origin of the Species" Charles Darwin
"People of the Lake" Dr. Richard Leakey
"The Dragons of Eden" Carl Sagan

From books such as these I formulate my own theories.

rufus

[BombsAway Bob]

I play maiden claiming $3500 3yo fillies at FL.
IS there anything lower? :rolleyes:
(That doesn't bark)
Tonight's $50,000 guaranteed Early Pick-4 @ Los Alamitos kicks off
with thoroughbred $2,500 Maiden Claimers going the challenging distance of 990Yards.:confused:

[Norm]

For far too many years I made the argument that betting maiden claimers made no sense at all. After all, they were, by definition, a bunch of losers who's owners didn't want them anymore. Then one day, as the Zen Masters would say, I experienced "Enlightenment". Now, I can't wait to play them. They are among the most predictable of all races.

How low ? . . . well, I play the NY-NJ circuit so, low isn't all that low really, about $10k.

[Pell Mell]

They are the first races I look at. Claiming price makes no difference, the bottom is the bottom.

[Kelso]

All of them, when they are ready, project pretty much the same way: improving early speed.


ZZ,
Over how many races, or over how many weeks, do you look for this to happen?

Thank you.

[Dan Montilion]

Ferndale shippers did well at Elko this year.

[46zilzal]

ZZ,
Over how many races, or over how many weeks, do you look for this to happen?

Thank you.
It can be over three but usually two. I have found once they "get it" that IT happens very fast. No temporal component but most usually are over a 4 week period.

[Cangamble]

All of them, when they are ready, project pretty much the same way: improving early speed.

Horses don't know their class structure.
I have to disagree with you here. Horses seem to have pecking orders and there are dominant horses in herds for example. Lots of articles while doing this search:
http://www.google.com/search?aq=f&num=20&hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1B3GGGL_en___CA215&q=horse+pecking+order&btnG=Search

[46zilzal]

I have to disagree with you here. Horses seem to have pecking orders and there are dominant horses in herds for example. Lots of articles while doing this search:
http://www.google.com/search?aq=f&num=20&hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1B3GGGL_en___CA215&q=horse+pecking+order&btnG=Search
The KEY words:IN HERDS!!

In THAT situation I would agree as all studies point to an ongoing interaction in a stable unit, BUT

Thoroughbreds are NOT together long enough in any natural herd environment. They TRAIN alone or with small transient groups, they LIVE alone, sequestered in a stall, and the only time they are in anything close to a herd (the mini-herd of a race) there is no time nor natural environment for the aggressive interactions which are usually required for dominance to occur.

I recall vividly an experiment we had to do in a Zoology lab about dominance. It failed miserably. I studied the elements that usually account for "pecking orders" and found that all research in that area required that the living unit (herd, den however you want to define it) be stable long enough for the various individuals to "scope each other out," then have the confrontational experiences that define dominance to take place and then be re-enforced, within the family unit over time. Only stable family units with multiple confrontations exhibit this behavior. I was the only one in the class who took on an experiment that failed, defined how the initial conditions needed to be changed for the experiment to work (longer time for the individuals to be together to form the pecking order) and received high marks.

[First_Place]

When horses exit the starting gate they ARE in a de facto herd.

FP

[Cangamble]

The KEY words:IN HERDS!!

In THAT situation I would agree as all studies point to an ongoing interaction in a stable unit, BUT

Thoroughbreds are NOT together long enough in any natural herd environment. They TRAIN alone or with small transient groups, they LIVE alone, sequestered in a stall, and the only time they are in anything close to a herd (the mini-herd of a race) there is no time nor natural environment for the aggressive interactions which are usually required for dominance to occur.

I recall vividly an experiment we had to do in a Zoology lab about dominance. It failed miserably. I studied the elements that usually account for "pecking orders" and found that all research in that area required that the living unit (herd, den however you want to define it) be stable long enough for the various individuals to "scope each other out," then have the confrontational experiences that define dominance to take place and then be re-enforced, within the family unit over time. Only stable family units with multiple confrontations exhibit this behavior. I was the only one in the class who took on an experiment that failed, defined how the initial conditions needed to be changed for the experiment to work (longer time for the individuals to be together to form the pecking order) and received high marks.
Thoroughbreds winter and are out in paddocks usually with other horses. You can visually see a pecking order. There are submissive horses and there are dominant ones. The herd behavior is instinctual, and I'm positive there are some horses incapable of passing certain horses because of it.

[46zilzal]

Thoroughbreds winter and are out in paddocks usually with other horses. You can visually see a pecking order. There are submissive horses and there are dominant ones. The herd behavior is instinctual, and I'm positive there are some horses incapable of passing certain horses because of it.
But those horses, in stable herd units, are not racing one another. Natural environment is nothing compared to the race track where herd instincts are blunted.

Herd instincts can only occur in herds where it takes time to set up the pecking order: they are NOT there in the few minutes of a race.

[alysheba88]

I love betting maiden claimers. If could only bet one type of race would be maiden claimers. Followed by maiden special weight

[46zilzal]

I love betting maiden claimers. If could only bet one type of race would be maiden claimers. Followed by maiden special weight
Some of the best bets in racing.

[Monty Capuletti]

Aside from low level SB Maiden Claimers, I can't get enough of them...

[cnollfan]

I like betting against weak favorites, and in bottom-level maiden claiming races, sometimes the favorite is spectacularly untalented.

[RaceBookJoe]

I like betting against weak favorites, and in bottom-level maiden claiming races, sometimes the favorite is spectacularly untalented.

And the converse of that is that at times there is a horse ( sometimes the fav but not always) who is much the best because the others are poor horses.

[russowen77]

Name another race where you can normally eliminate confidently 1/2 the field of more?

[phatbastard]

I too love bottom maidens, but i have one question....i usually dismiss 1st time starters in those type races and have lost some nice bets because of it...how in the world can you give a horse whose connections have had no faith in at least trying one step or two up the ladder...certainly breeding of precocious sire can't be used..or can they?

often see selectors who use the ''he can't be as bad as these'' line in making them a selection....that just seems like laziness to me

[Robert Fischer]

once in a while, you see something that really jumps out at you, and the public is so far off, that a small wager is in order.

In general, I don't look at claiming races.

[rufus999]

I too love bottom maidens, but i have one question....i usually dismiss 1st time starters in those type races and have lost some nice bets because of it...how in the world can you give a horse whose connections have had no faith in at least trying one step or two up the ladder.

Well, two methods I use are:
1. Shoot crap and go with the connections, if any... and hope the horse wakes up.
2. Take note of where the horse has been working out. This, I found, can serve as an indicator of what the trainer had truly intended for the horse. It can also be used to hide ability. And of course it could mean nothing at all. Only experience will tell you.

Potential for early speed is the first thing I look for but thats already been covered here.

And finally, pay close attention to the cards of the circus side show bull ring tracks like Mountaineer where everything thats still standing at the end is considered a winner. These horses often hide out here waiting to take advantage of a weak field.

rufus

[Zman179]

I play maiden claiming $3500 3yo fillies at FL.
IS there anything lower? :rolleyes:
(That doesn't bark)

Those are my favorites (though I thought they didn't go lower than $4,000 mcl.) Finger Lakes maidens are very formful.

[DanG]

often see selectors who use the ''he can't be as bad as these'' line in making them a selection....that just seems like laziness to me
It does seem that way on the surface, but I respectfully disagree here Phat.

In fact the record Pick-6 the other day was helped tremendously by this exact strategy. The guy who took it down didn’t actually “like” the FTS (#6 in the 7th race), but he did make a negative judgment on those who have started.

This philosophy is a crucial part of getting the bust-out horses that make scores. A good / trustworthy set of par times goes a long way in solving this. If the experienced runners aren’t in the same area code par wise, then take a long look at the 1st, 2nd and 3rd time starter regardless of how their dope looks.

[phatbastard]

my key plays are generally 2nd and 3rd time starters...just seems to me that 1st timers with decent w/o are generally overbet

[DanG]

my key plays are generally 2nd and 3rd time starters...just seems to me that 1st timers with decent w/o are generally overbet
Very true; as are most severe layoffs vs. their actual impact.