View Full Version : 2/21 Aqueduct finale
oddsmaven
02-20-2008, 10:05 PM
In a card that has too many heavy favorites pre-scratches, I would be interested in opinions on the 9th which will probably have three contenders vying for lukewarm favoritism...I'm not the best at projecting who will get to the front...one of the favorites, Hawkwood is stretching out but so is a longer shot - Aforementioned...the latter is drawn outside him, but I'm wondering if those two will compromise each other and set it up for Driven By Success or Tsunamic.
Does anyone have a strong opinion on how this race will unfold; especially in terms of the pacesetter(s)?
NTamm1215
02-20-2008, 10:13 PM
In a card that has too many heavy favorites pre-scratches, I would be interested in opinions on the 9th which will probably have three contenders vying for lukewarm favoritism...I'm not the best at projecting who will get to the front...one of the favorites, Hawkwood is stretching out but so is a longer shot - Aforementioned...the latter is drawn outside him, but I'm wondering if those two will compromise each other and set it up for Driven By Success or Tsunamic.
Does anyone have a strong opinion on how this race will unfold; especially in terms of the pacesetter(s)?
I agree with you that HAWKWOOD certainly rates an excellent chance as he's coming out of a productive race, has worked well and A Dutrow does better with 2nd time starters than debuting runners. I think in terms of the pace, Alan Garcia and Dominguez have proven to be two of the most aggressive (if not the most aggressive) when they notice that the track might be a bit biased. With little to no speed drawn inside of him, Garcia may send straight away if he feels like the rail/front end are the place to be (and they usually are).
Aforementioned should show some early foot as well but he really hasn't been much on the inner and would seem to have to move forward significantly to contend.
Tsunamic made multiple moves in the 1/19 race won wire to wire by Lee Stewart. The track that afternoon was heavily biased early on and loosened up a bit by day's end. He certainly needed the race and should be wound quite a bit tighter here.
Hopefully that helps, but I really didn't answer your question!
NT
the little guy
02-20-2008, 11:50 PM
While there may be some prices worth throwing in, it's pretty much a two horse race between Hawkwood and Driven By Success.
I don't get Tsunamic at all and will be very surprised if he's a factor.
Robert Fischer
02-21-2008, 01:15 AM
pace- Aforementioned, Hawkinwood, AE#11,
scenario - Dominguez would love to break on top but in reality will sits behind the leaders and try to inherit the lead ... Pino tries to keep Tsunamic from getting run over in the stretch...
The race is Hawkwoods to lose.
opinion- I am passing this race. Low quality.If you have such a great multi-race underneath it go ahead I guess that would in itself suggest covering more than just Hawk.
Hawkwood should be in charge, but that horse has a 50/50 chance of quitting out of the exacta. Looked like he was about to stop in the last, and Dominguez is decent at nursing a horse to the wire. Hawkwood is both the most likely winner and a vulnerable favorite. Driven By Success probably stands as second win probability, although I am not sure if he wants to finish willingly or not.
we don't know a damn thing about the 3 or the 10.
If horses can make up ground tommorow , we have to also respect the 1 and the 2. Channing Hill can make a horse feel like Harrison Bergeron, but the 2 PRemier Sarkis actually rallied pretty well under him in the last albeit wayy late in a sprint, and today switches to Aldo. Maybe he needs more reasonable "half" fractions to keep pace with. Still a stretch.
Then of course Hill is on the #1. We don't know how good an animal Arthur's Chair is. Melnyk has pretty good people looking at horseflesh and Albertrani wouldn't shock me if he has a horse that can rate a bit, and finish.
If Hawk quits and DBS flattens and Contessa has a dud, and Hill anchors a Melnyk ... we could see how bad this race is, and even a career maiden like Raffies Deer could compete.
small win bet on Hawkwood @ 5/1? (which we won't see)
I will just watch and root for Arthur's Chair to be half decent.
Murph
02-21-2008, 01:29 AM
Single unit WIN plays on #6 Aforementioned and #8 Raffies Deer.
This isn't a stellar field and both of these could do well with just a little
bit of improvement today. I give them the nod on ITM% on the inner track
and their more attractive odds.
Murph
Murph
02-21-2008, 01:40 AM
I don't get Tsunamic at all and will be very surprised if he's a factor.Is that because of his running style?
That is why I toss him here. He shows figures to suggest he might get up
on this group, as does Rodeo Hand. I can't see either of them catching a front
runner unless the track were to have changed a good deal since last week. We
should know how it's playing by the 9th race, anyway.
Murph
scenario - Dominguez would love to break on top but in reality will sits behind the leaders and try to inherit the lead ... Pino tries to keep Tsunamic from getting run over in the stretch...
The race is Hawkwoods to lose.
opinion- I am passing this race. Low quality.If you have such a great multi-race underneath it go ahead I guess that would in itself suggest covering more than just Hawk.
Hawkwood should be in charge, but that horse has a 50/50 chance of quitting out of the exacta. Looked like he was about to stop in the last, and Dominguez is decent at nursing a horse to the wire. Hawkwood is both the most likely winner and a vulnerable favorite. Driven By Success probably stands as second win probability, although I am not sure if he wants to finish willingly or not.
we don't know a damn thing about the 3 or the 10.
If horses can make up ground tommorow , we have to also respect the 1 and the 2. Channing Hill can make a horse feel like Harrison Bergeron, but the 2 PRemier Sarkis actually rallied pretty well under him in the last albeit wayy late in a sprint, and today switches to Aldo. Maybe he needs more reasonable "half" fractions to keep pace with. Still a stretch.
Then of course Hill is on the #1. We don't know how good an animal Arthur's Chair is. Melnyk has pretty good people looking at horseflesh and Albertrani wouldn't shock me if he has a horse that can rate a bit, and finish.
If Hawk quits and DBS flattens and Contessa has a dud, and Hill anchors a Melnyk ... we could see how bad this race is, and even a career maiden like Raffies Deer could compete.
small win bet on Hawkwood @ 5/1? (which we won't see)
I will just watch and root for Arthur's Chair to be half decent.
:lol: good stuff
Channing Hill can make a horse feel like Harrison Bergeron
I should be handicapping but I find myself reading this stuff :D
carryover at SA today
misscashalot
02-21-2008, 04:33 AM
The last 2 weeks at 1/70..track favors front runners from posts 1 thru 4 (surprise..surprise Im sure) Before scratches and seeing how the first 8 races are run Thursday in regard to style bias, even thinking about which is what is an act of futility at this time. Anyone in this thread a board watcher? But Ill play along...#1 firster Arthurs Seat saddled by Tom Albertrani working well coming into this with a speed building 3f work 6 days ago after a 5f work. ML 12/1. And Mark Hennig saddles 15/1 firster #3 Really Devine. Worth a look. Both trainers very hot.
john del riccio
02-21-2008, 07:50 AM
AFOREMENTIONED has a superior pace fig in his last and did so vs. as tough a field as any of these have faced. He is only a 3yo, gets Mr. Lopez (the subject of many a comment via a recent thread), but doesn't appear to be a distance horse. If he were to go off at 6-1 or better, I'd be willing to gamble.
TSUNAMIC has the most foundation and is coming off a decent effort and is 2nd of a layoff.
RAFFIES DEERhas gotten a little break, perhaps to focus on grass season, but he has shown some run of late.
John
Onion Monster
02-21-2008, 10:26 AM
From a win-only perspective, Aforementioned could offer value at a price (I'll agree with Mr. del Riccio, about 5 or 6 to 1 seems right). Betters could be scared away because he has faded in sprints, but he just might need to control the pace, instead of chasing, from the outset to gain the necessary stamina.
I love the jock change. For the first time in his young career he has an adroit speed jock aboard: Peltroche is incompetent and Luzzi has been riding very poorly. Lopez is a huge plus.
Enigma
02-21-2008, 10:54 AM
Dominguez rides DRIVEN BY SUCCESS in preference to HAWKWOOD and TSUNANIC...........NUFF SED !!!
46zilzal
02-21-2008, 11:08 AM
Dominguez rides DRIVEN BY SUCCESS in preference to HAWKWOOD and TSUNANIC...........NUFF SED !!!
That one will be too far off the pace here. Speed rules in maidens and particularly the AQU inner.
john del riccio
02-21-2008, 11:09 AM
Dominguez rides DRIVEN BY SUCCESS in preference to HAWKWOOD and TSUNANIC...........NUFF SED !!!
VERY good point, ramon is the man.
John
oddsmaven
02-21-2008, 11:57 AM
I noticed too that Dominguez rode the three leading favorites and chose Driven By Success...I think that could influence things enough to make him the chalk at around 5:2...then I see Hawkwood @ 3:1, Tsunamic a touch higher, Raffies 5 or 6:1 and Aforementioned 7 or 8:1.
It seems the consensus is that Aforementioned will grab the lead and Hawkwood sit close behind...if I were betting Hawkwood, I'd want the lead as it seems a lot to me to ask him to work at passing someone and then be able to finish well off of his sprint effort...Aformentioned was mentioned as a good price bet but my view is that his current form will hurt him more than stretching out, and I'd rather be inside in case Hawkwood goes hard.
I would only bet Driven or Hawkwood on top here myself, but was having trouble coming to grips with the pace scenario and was curious of opinions on that...thanks for the feedback.
Seems the only horse who can go the distance relative to class is Tsunamic by far. Albertraini Trainer pattern suggests something but Hill? breeder is owner...
Aqu 3rd,
Garcia afraid to get in the hole down the stretch, or him in trouble again on the rail...would have helped my $16 pk 6...can I cover my cost? :D
Aqu 5th
decent prices considering
lotta good speed here went with Doc Chaney..yeah I know Espinoza, but he has been getting better... insurance Come on Chas
john del riccio
02-21-2008, 02:39 PM
Aqu 3rd,
Garcia afraid to get in the hole down the stretch, or him in trouble again on the rail...would have helped my $16 pk 6...can I cover my cost? :D
Aqu 5th
decent prices considering
lotta good speed here went with Doc Chaney..yeah I know Espinoza, but he has been getting better... insurance Come on Chas
This has been the criticism of Garcia for a long while....wears hi sskirt too many days. When he wears his pants, he is quite good. No offense intended for the femae readers......or jockeys....
John
Light
02-21-2008, 02:41 PM
I think people are forgetting the age factor here. Driven by Success,Hawkwood,Aforementioned are all 3yo's,who've only raced against their own age group, going against an experienced 4yo router in Tsunamic.Driven by Success has the best conditioning of the 3yo's and I normally love horses with his pattern,but the age factor and trainer is 1-25 in last 90 days makes me cautious.
Aqu 5th
my fault, speed scenerio never materialized Take The Bluff out of same race as Doc Chaney last. only at Aqu, Jocks on speed horses content to rate off the speed on a speed track ....still, my fault
good point Light,
Though dirt races are very different than turf, gotta take note of the level of horses Tsunamic has been competing against on turf. First time back off the layoff (on dirt ) offered a competitive challenge in a really nice race-
Lee Stewart (blinkers the difference) - Awkward Start last out 4th (11 out) Quick and Easy, Irving's Run, one back of chernobl's Hero.
Fly the North Wind won next out beat Determined Again (stumbled start) on the pace last out.
I dont believe the short horses can be competitive long, Arthur's Seat - Albertrani las 7 First time MSW distance races (10/19/07)1-4-3-2-6-7-1 (4/14/07), Melnyk breeder owner is scary.
oddsmaven
02-21-2008, 03:22 PM
I think people are forgetting the age factor here. Driven by Success,Hawkwood,Aforementioned are all 3yo's,who've only raced against their own age group, going against an experienced 4yo router in Tsunamic.Driven by Success has the best conditioning of the 3yo's and I normally love horses with his pattern,but the age factor and trainer is 1-25 in last 90 days makes me cautious.
Admittedly, I didn't pay attention to age, though I'm not sure what it's worth as at some point being a four year old is a minus in that they've been kicking around as maidens too long...that said, I'd be interested to see if Tsunamic and the 0-11 Raffie's Deer get more play than I expect.
could get a good price on Driven By Success, came out of one of those races - he was beat by 9, he beat the rest of em by 9, came out runnin first time out Dominguez stays $85k baby, overmatched but competitive in both...box of chocolate (dont know what your gonna get ).
see what happens
john del riccio
02-21-2008, 04:11 PM
AFOREMENTIONED opened up at 5-1 (1/2 of M/L) and is 7-1 with 8 MTP.
John
Robert Fischer
02-21-2008, 04:16 PM
EDIT SHOW ESTIMATE-
Nothing is really jumping out valuwise to me right now. 60% is probably a somewhat accurate estimate of Driven by Success, but you need to get 3.30 just for fair odds which isn't giving you a ton of surplus value.
I also thought about a 45 with 123 in an exacta but again the value is pretty tight. a similar Tri could be made using the 123 and even the 10 - i just don't see it.
ALSO THE 1 IS 15-1 , STILL NOT A GOOD BET IMO BUT HE COULD
#10 Thundering Cat looked pretty good in the post parade. I'm interested in what he has or maybe doesn't have. :)
oddsmaven
02-21-2008, 04:17 PM
I'll try a cold exacta - Hawkwood over Tsunamic
Robert Fischer
02-21-2008, 04:19 PM
Now hawkwood is goofing around
Robert Fischer
02-21-2008, 04:25 PM
Tsunamic Driven by Success Aforementioned
Grits
02-21-2008, 04:25 PM
I agree with you that HAWKWOOD certainly rates an excellent chance as he's coming out of a productive race, has worked well and A Dutrow does better with 2nd time starters than debuting runners. I think in terms of the pace, Alan Garcia and Dominguez have proven to be two of the most aggressive (if not the most aggressive) when they notice that the track might be a bit biased. With little to no speed drawn inside of him, Garcia may send straight away if he feels like the rail/front end are the place to be (and they usually are).
Aforementioned should show some early foot as well but he really hasn't been much on the inner and would seem to have to move forward significantly to contend.
Tsunamic made multiple moves in the 1/19 race won wire to wire by Lee Stewart. The track that afternoon was heavily biased early on and loosened up a bit by day's end. He certainly needed the race and should be wound quite a bit tighter here.
Hopefully that helps, but I really didn't answer your question!
NT
Good work with Tsunamic, Nick.
From what I saw Hawkwood acted up when first stepped onto the track all the way to the gate. Might be something to note, especially if he keeps going to post at a short price.
Fastracehorse
02-21-2008, 04:33 PM
From what I saw Hawkwood acted up when first stepped onto the track all the way to the gate. Might be something to note, especially if he keeps going to post at a short price.
When does Belmont start??
fffastt
oddsmaven
02-21-2008, 04:35 PM
I think people are forgetting the age factor here. Driven by Success,Hawkwood,Aforementioned are all 3yo's,who've only raced against their own age group, going against an experienced 4yo router in Tsunamic.Driven by Success has the best conditioning of the 3yo's and I normally love horses with his pattern,but the age factor and trainer is 1-25 in last 90 days makes me cautious.
A loss for me...can't say you didn't warn me about the winner Light.
4/30/08
When does Belmont start??
fffastt
Light
02-21-2008, 04:51 PM
Odds
No biggie. Just been noticing these maiden routes for 3 and 4 yo's @ Aqu leave the 3Yo's at an disadvantage. We're only in Feb. There is a reason they dont run 2yo's V. 3YO's. These 3yo's at this time of year are still essentially 2yo's. A few months from now,this relatively juicy angle will be out of season. Of course you still have to use common sense. For example if a 3yo has run well against older or a 4yo has had too many tries,you got to take that into consideration.
Light
02-21-2008, 04:58 PM
Another nice angle with 3yo's: If you see a 3yo (maiden or winners) router holding his own against older and now goes back to a race for 3yo's only...look out.Can get a really nice price as most bettors are just capping and not paying attention to age.
Fastracehorse
02-21-2008, 05:19 PM
4/30/08
Thanx,
fffastt
jognlope
02-21-2008, 05:36 PM
Sucky day at the big A!!! 3 scratches in one race, well at least I'll get some refunds. what did meriweather jessica do, I guess she didn't start or something.... I'm gong to bet 10 supers at Bealah from now on. Aqueduct, well all new york tracks, hate me, cannot make a penny off them. Saratoga is the "graveyard of favorites" so I don't even bother to bet there any more, except litttle safe show bets.
john del riccio
02-22-2008, 05:12 AM
This race came up quite good (variant) for this group. The pace was even better and I'd expect the winner to make an impact in a nw1x for SB's and the 2nd-4th place finishers shouldn't be maidens for very long. If AFOREMENTIONED were mine I'd cut him back to 6f, if HAWKWOOD were mine I'd do the same but I'd school him at the gate and get him to calm down a bit mentally before racing him back.
Good Luck,
John
Murph
02-22-2008, 09:18 AM
I'm going to file one lasting memory from this little handicapping lesson.
I don't get Tsunamic at all and will be very surprised if he's a factor.
I wonder why tlg was so put off on Tsunamic? I was hoping we would here from him on that before the race. Now, we may never know.
Murph
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