Prime Power Question

[zerosky]

Does anyone know if it contains a Trainer and/or Jockey component?

On a more general note it would be nice if they listed, if not the exact recipe,
then a least the ingredients. On the Bris site it lists Speed, Class, Pace, Form,
Weight and distance then goes on to say ....and many more!


Thanks

[njcurveball]

Don't forget natural and artificial flavors. :jump:

[lsosa54]

Based on experience, my sense is definitely a trainer component and most likely a jockey component. When a friend and I were accumulating Prime Power data for SoCal over hundreds of races a few years ago, we called BRIS and had a discussion about the rating but they would not give us the exact components or weightings. I don't remember the name of the guy we spoke to but he had a distinctive first name. Basically just said it was proprietary info - can't blame them I guess.

This would hold true for the TSN Power Rating as well.




Does anyone know if it contains a Trainer and/or Jockey component?

On a more general note it would be nice if they listed, if not the exact recipe,
then a least the ingredients. On the Bris site it lists Speed, Class, Pace, Form,
Weight and distance then goes on to say ....and many more!


Thanks

[SMOO]

Don't forget natural and artificial flavors. :jump:

Prime Power can also be used as a soup thickener!

[rokitman]

Based on experience, my sense is definitely a trainer component and most likely a jockey component. When a friend and I were accumulating Prime Power data for SoCal over hundreds of races a few years ago, we called BRIS and had a discussion about the rating but they would not give us the exact components or weightings. I don't remember the name of the guy we spoke to but he had a distinctive first name. Basically just said it was proprietary info - can't blame them I guess.

This would hold true for the TSN Power Rating as well.Happy?

Happy Broadbent was/is the president of TSN. His brother runs BRIS. As you may know, BRIS/TSN are the same business. Their father founded the operation. I talked to them both but that was a potential money-making proposition. But it's not a huge business so it's not impossible that you might of talked to him.

[Fastracehorse]

Based on experience, my sense is definitely a trainer component and most likely a jockey component. When a friend and I were accumulating Prime Power data for SoCal over hundreds of races a few years ago, we called BRIS and had a discussion about the rating but they would not give us the exact components or weightings. I don't remember the name of the guy we spoke to but he had a distinctive first name. Basically just said it was proprietary info - can't blame them I guess.

This would hold true for the TSN Power Rating as well.

................how does the rating do monetarily??

fffastt

[bettheoverlay]

Top PP# so far in Feb - 28% winners .82 ROI for about a dozen tracks. Similiar to it's long term performance. A good # that has been way overbet for many years.

[lsosa54]

Happy?

Happy Broadbent was/is the president of TSN. His brother runs BRIS. As you may know, BRIS/TSN are the same business. Their father founded the operation. I talked to them both but that was a potential money-making proposition. But it's not a huge business so it's not impossible that you might of talked to him.

I'm familiar with the background was it wasn't Happy. I think the initials of his first and last name were the same. It was a young kid who seemed like more of a stathead at the time. Nice kid but he wasn't about to divulge much.

[formula_2002]

I'm not certain what factors it contains, but in my current data base of over
225,000 horses, about 3000 race cards, I can get a consistant roi of over 90, playing odds>=7/2.
That is not a small thing.
It's probably the best single public factor out there.
It gets better the more people mis-understand it! :)

here is one of my more recent runs;

wins e-wins plays wnet
397 416 2605 2113
15% 16% 96%
95%

[cmoore]

I did a study a long time ago using the prime powers at Hollywood, Santa Anita and Delmar...The top 4 prime powers won 72% of the races. The 2 highest odds horses of the first 4 prime power ratings placed 50% of the time. Now that was track odds, not ML odds. I included those statistics in a betting system.

[zerosky]

Thanks for the replies interesting reading...

What set me thinking was the pp's released for the Derby by Bris, which
contain a Prime Power Number for each Hoss' but do not have as yet
nominated Jockey.

Was wondering whether the Jockey component would be added to the mix
at a later date or whether it was not included at all.

Interesting stats by Fomula 2000 thanks, I've used your spreadsheet on several
occasions.

I think I read somewhere on this board that it doesn't take into account layoffs
as well.

[rrbauer]

Ratings are a function of history at the time you see them....I am skeptical that they have anything to do with jockeys....and, I'm doubtful that trainers are part of the mix, either. PP ratings today for Derby hopefuls will change many times between now and 1st Sat in May.

You may have spoken with Corby?

[lsosa54]

You may have spoken with Corby?



Thanks for jogging my memory - that's exactly who we spoke to - his last name wmay have been Corbett.

We found the Primes useful for looking at our contender pool.

I'll include some data we accumulated back when we were handicapping SoCal on a daily basis and downlaoding the BRIS Ultimate PP's. We did not include FPX. This was based on races where all entrants had a Prime Power # and pace ratings, so no 1st timers or foreign horses.

As for trainers being included in the Primes, I saw many horses rank high in the Primes where their ranking could only logically be explained by the very high percentage trainer, especially under those racing conditions. There was no other handicapping factor you could look at that would put the horse that high. Of course, I have no clue as to what is included in the rating.

Jockeys I would think less so. Maybe a hot jock at the meet or a hot j-t combo, or a hot jocj last 10 days might be given some percentage influence.

Note that including maidens did make a difference in routes, as I guess the public has a tougher time with horses stretching out.

Also, the size of field makes a big difference in the top 4 Prime winner predictability as you might imagine. I don't think the track differences are a big deal as they would probably even out with more races.

Also note that on the turf, BRIS speed #'s were slightly more predictive than Prime. The BRIS Avg Final Speed is the speed number found in the Ultimate PP Summary Dist/Surf Pace/Speed section. Last Final Speed is just the last paceline's BRIS speed for the horse.

My buddy had an access database with many more races than those shown which I don't have access to anymore but as I checked the numbers each year, there were no major swings.

My sense is poly might make some difference initially but not over the long haul.

We also found the best use of the primes was to consider them in the context of today's surface and distance structure. Horses with only turf races in their record tended to be overrated by Prime Power when entered in a dirt race. Prime seemed to do a decent job with sprinters going long or routers cutting back, but in SoCal, we wanted to see some early speed and positioning as well.

Although there were some nice overlays in the top 4 primes, we never were successful in establishing profiatble automatic bets - each race is just too unique.

There were some exacta plays that appeared promising but we hadn't tested enough races yet. Things like:

Dirt route: Highest 2 odds at post time of the top 4 Primes with the top4 last BRIS speed horses underneath. ROI: 42%

Turf Sprint: Highest 2 BRIS Avg Speed of the top 4 Primes over the top 4 last BRIS speed. ROI: 20%.

Turf Route: 2 highest E2 pace ratings of the top 4 primes over the last 4 BRIS speed. ROI: +27%.

The only automatic win bet we had any ROI on at the time was in Turf Routes, betting the top 2 E2 Pace Ratings of the top 4 Primes. ROI: +27%.

Hope some of this is thought provoking.

[Fred]

I know that Bris puts a lot of weight on class. My guess would be that Prime Power is a concoction of class, speed, run style, pedigree and connections.



Freddy