Turfday
02-18-2008, 06:28 PM
This was my National Turf handicap for today's big Pick Six carryover card at Santa Anita. I am posting after the (6th) race so as not to upset any of my paid users. Don't say I'm past posting, because I was knocked out of Pick 6 in the first leg. Other than that, the card has gone pretty good thus far. Four more races to go.
(MLU = morning line underlay and throw out in any exacta plays)
1st— PASS.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 AWESOME BROAD 7/2 9/2
5 STAR’S PROMISE 4/1 5/1
7 MIKEY BONES 7/1 9/1
8 SANMELI 6/1 8/1
10 SOUTH AFRICAN 5/2 3/1
2nd— 7 BEYOND LOADED & 9 DAKOTA PADRE co-top choices; exacta box 5-7-9
BEYOND LOADED likes the hillside turf course and gets Gomez for his second start off the layoff. He’s worked :58.1h and 1:13.2h since the comeback race to have him primed for a big try. DAKOTA PADRE was developing as a 3-year-old and has returned a better 4-year-old, always a positive sign. He got his first taste of running down the hill on Jan. 21 and despite a wide trip punched it in nicely and the fig came up strong. It’s quite clear that FURIOSO STAR has enough speed to clear this field and be very dangerous on the front end. He’s on a bounce back pattern after a big comeback win on Dec. 28. In his next start, he got blown away by a good colt in Street Boss. Although sire Memo is just average getting turf winners, ‘STAR’s dam, Miss Excitement, who turf races herself. However, ‘STAR is meeting tested open company today and whereas he should be used in the exacta, I think he’ll get worn down late by one of the closers.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
3 MEDZENDEEKRON 7/1 9/1
4 SWIFT WINDS 10/1 13/1
5 FURIOSO STAR 5/1 6/1
6 SURF TOWN 10/1 13/1
7 BEYOND LOADED 7/2 9/2
9 DAKOTA PADRE 7/2 9/2
3rd— 6 SILK THUNDER on top or PASS.
The public loves to bet fast-working first-time starters in non-descript fields such as this one and SILK THUNDER fits the bill perfectly. She looks like a something in a nothing race and is almost guaranteed to be even money. The workouts over the track have been solid, capped off by a sharp :46.1hg work on Feb. 13 and the presence of Gomez on board is, of course, a positive. Sire Silver Deputy gets 14% first out winners in the long term and that’s grade A on turfday.com. If there’s a caution at all, it’s the sure underlay price and that trainer Eoin Harty is 1/28 winning with first-time starters in the past year and 12/103 in the last three years, grade C on turfday.com. Masterful Miss is a trial filly who gets a comfortable outside draw. Two races back when getting off the turf and on to the synthetic, she ran her best race and earned a fig just above par, a third behind Crown of Diamonds. ‘Miss looks like the only other option in a less than stellar field. I won’t be playing this race but you might.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 ENTRY 8/1 10/1
3 EARLE’S FIRST 9/1 11/1
5 STORMY ALIBI 8/1 10/1
6 SILK THUNDER 7/5 2/1
8 MASTERFUL MISS 2/1 5/2
4th— 6 PAUL’S HOPE on top or PASS. (fair odds below incorrect due to scratch of Spot the Diplomat)
A small field that looks like a poor warmup to the Pick 6 carryover. If there’s an idea in the race, it’s to play against the 2/1 morning line favorite Familiar Stranger, who might be a one shot wonder and can’t be very sound.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 PRIME RULER 7/1 9/1
3 SPOT THE DIPLOMAT 5/2 3/1
5 BYE NOW 8/1 10/1
6 PAUL’S HOPE 5/2 3/1
7 FAMILIAR STRANGER 4/1 5/1
Note: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can’t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes!
5th- 5 SIAMESE CAT on top or PASS.
It’s an interesting, competitive start to yet another wide open Pick 6 sequence. For my purposes, the races itself comes up unplayable unless it’s a small win bet on SIAMESE CAT. I’ve got the first three morning line choices as my first three fair odds choices (almost exactly the same) and each one of the three has something going for them to make them a strong contender. I’m not going to suggest an exacta box of the first three choices in a big field of turf fillies. AINAMAA is off a long layoff, but showed real talent in her three races here last year. The work tab leading into this comeback is solid, she draws inside to hopefully save ground and Blanc knows her from riding her last year. The negative is that trainer Ben Cecil is 0/17 with 120 + day layoff types in the last three years and 11/113 in the long term (just 10%, grade C on turfday.com). SIAMESE CAT is the deserving favorite since she has been in action recently and has a win over the course on Jan. 1. And she’s been running against big fields, especially in England where she was very competitive. DELMARVA is a talented filly who has had exactly one race since Oct. 20, 2006 and she’s had gaps in her sequence of races prior to that indicating unsoundness. She draws an undesirable outside post for today’s comeback, but gets red hot Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. Note that she ran super “fresh” twice in the past on Jan. 25, 2006 and again on Aug. 14, 2006 and she can show tactical speed if asked. Clocker Andy Harrington has been impressed by her works leading up to this.
So it looks like the two comebackers vs. the filly with more recency on your main Pick 6 ticket. Recent winner Lightmyfirebaby, Big Bertha, who won two turning at Del Mar, and Silver Moonshine, after her third straight win, but slower than these and drawn poorly, are the longshots in the race that perhaps could be used on a backup ticket if you’re playing a large amount in the Pick 6
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 AINAMAA 7/2 9/2
2 LIGHTMYFIREBABY 10/1 13/1
5 SIAMESE CAT 3/1 4/1
7 BIG BERTHA 10/1 13/1
10 DELMARVA 4/1 5/1
11 SILVER MOON 14/1 18/1
6th— (BEST PLAY) 1 NORWAY HOUSE on top (possible Pick 6 single?), exactas 1-5, 1-7, 7-1, 7-5; extra ticket or two 1-7, 7-1 combos. If SI CHIMI is much above 7/2, he’s also a good value win bet.
If old pro NORWAY HOUSE has one more left in him, and he seems to like this track, he should flat out beat this field at a short price. Either of his last two should win this and his other two main rivals, The Rye Man and SI CHIMI, don’t appear to have as much tactical speed. SI CHIMI looms the value at 8/1 on the line. Mark Glatt bumped him up two levels to $20,000 off the claim last out and put blinkers on him. ‘CHIMI broke in the air and lost his chance, so the race can be tossed. He’s back down one level below the $12,500 he was claimed for and this is a very weak field. He has several races to go back to last year when he was trained by Mike Mitchell that would win this. The Rye Man comes from way back and the race shape doesn’t seem like it will suit. He’s a use if you’re playing a bigger size Pick 6 ticket. I’m throwing out 4/1 third choice 8-year-old Manhattan Express, who has run 60 times and is 1/22 going this distance and is 0/13 at Santa Anita.
Pick 6 players might consider singling NORWAY HOUSE or doubling the race with SI CHIMI. The Rye Man would go on a backup ticket or a larger main ticket.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 NORWAY HOUSE 7/5 2/1
3 MANHATTAN EXP (MLU) 8/1 10/1
5 THE RYE MAN 7/2 9/2
7 SI CHIMI 7/2 9/2
8 QUIET PERIOD 9/1 11/1
7th— 11 DEVILS MARTINI on top or PASS.
Maybe the racing gods, who have been so unkind to form players in recent days, will throw them a bone here to get home Classy Attraction, who figures to make the lead, or True Suggestion, who will be coming from behind. Those two look like the lukewarm favorites in a race that most Pick 6 players are going to understandably spread. And don’t you HATE THAT? You spread the race expecting a price and a favorite that looked beatable wins. Keep in mind, Victor Fernandez, the trainer of Classy Attraction, is 1/57 in the last three years and only 5/83 long term. So the racing gods are going to have to be very generous. But to her credit, Classy Attraction looks like a trier and did run second behind males on Jan. 14. True Suggestion’s two races thus far look good “on paper” but in reality have been horribly slow and way below par. That she is 7/2 in this field tells you how weak the others look. Hurricane Retsina gets blinkers on and maybe that’s a reason itself to consider her. The 5/1 first-time starter Run Savio Run has no works of note and her sire, Sunday Break, is an uninspiring 2/55 winning with first-time starters. DEVILS MARTINI (12/1 morning line, 7/1 my fair odds) might provide some betting value simply because she’s a decently bred second-time starter dropping out of a better race with a solid trainer and jockey. She showed no evidence that she could run in her debut, but she has a right to improve and it’s good that Flores rides her back. Trainer Pete Miller is only 4/56 winning with first-time starters, so maybe it wasn’t a surprise she showed little. However, although this isn’t the exact applicable stat, Miller is a solid 10/50 (20%) second off the layoff. Although this isn’t “second off the layoff,” it does show that Miller’s stock improves second time out. It’s sheer speculation, but at 12/1 on the line, I’ll take a shot.
Pick 6 players are advised to use all six below on your ticket and, if you can afford it, add on whoever else you like. Smaller tickets should use at least the 3 & 11.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
3 CLASSY ATTRACTION 4/1 5/1
7 HURRICANE RETSINA 10/1 13/1
8 FORGIVING SPIRIT 14/1 18/1
10 COLONY TRICK 9/1 11/1
11 DEVILS MARTINI 7/1 9/1
12 TRUE SUGGESTION 9/2 6/1
8th— PASS.
It’s a small field and I don’t see a reason to play the race itself. For Pick 6 purposes, the three obvious must uses are COSTUME, TRICK’S PIC and BLACK MAMBA. Frankel must really think a lot of COSTUME to continue to run her in graded stakes even though she is still eligible for her first allowance condition. TRICK’S PIC won very decisively in a big, improved effort at this distance on Jan. 19 when making her first start for trainer Doug O’Neill, always a positive sign that he may have found something, so further improvement is possible. BLACK MAMBA has been facing the best company and has been running the best figs. But it appears she missed 29 days of training between her race on Dec. 16 and her next workout on Jan. 14. And Jan. 14 was the date of the Grade II San Gorgonino at 1 1/8 miles turf that she could have run in (and missed), which was only a five-horse field (COSTUME was fourth in that race).
Pick 6 players should obviously use 4, 6 & 7 and strongly consider 5 if you’re playing a bigger ticket.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 KRIS’ SIS 8/1 10/1
4 COSTUME 7/2 9/2
5 ALEXANDRA ROSE 4/1 5/1
6 TRICK’S PIC 3/1 4/1
7 BLACK MAMBA 5/2 3/1
9th— Check fair odds vs. actual for a possible overlay win bet. 7 CATASTAIRE and/or 12 PEARL FISHER could offer the best value and the ones I would look closest at, but compare all of the prices.
Great betting race with no real favorite. I would use all six below on your main Pick 6 ticket. The next tier below them on a Pick 6 backup ticket would be 4-6-9 if you’re playing a large amount. My throwouts are 1-5-11, which includes 6/1 firster Thrust, who has way too many workouts (27 dating back to July 22) without Drysdale even entering him, isn’t noted using Lasix in DRF and has a bad post in a big field. Here are some things to consider. The Beyer figs underrate TIZ NOW TIZ THEN. Trainer Dave Hofmans has two entrants in this race, including the 7/2 morning line favorite MEDJOOL. MEDJOOL, who didn’t have a clean trip in the Cal Derby, is a must use on your Pick 6 ticket, but keep in mind that Hofmans is 0/19 in the last 30 days and only 5/62 in the last 90 days. CATASTAIRE is a most interesting possibility. He has been closing strongly against slow race shapes on the turf. Today, he’s going to get some pace to run at with sprinters Screen to Screen and NO LIEN HERE signed on. If he takes to the synthentic, he could blow this field away, but he’ll have to do it coming from far back in a big field where traffic is a consideration. NO LIEN HERE has been bet like a good thing in both of his starts and Andy has always thought he is a runner. He’s stretches out today and puts blinkers on for O’Neill, who is very adept winning with blinkers on and on the stretch out. MATTYS G FORCE has trained better than the final times would indicate for hot trainer Mike Mitchell, who has been winning far more often lately with first-time starters than he did in the past. Still, it’s a tough task to win first out going two turns in a big field and ‘G FORCE’s sire, Matty G, is a poor 11/190 (6%) winning with his first-time starters. If you need to cut down your ticket a bit, he would be the one to chop off. PEARL FISHER is the surprise package who unfortunately draws the extreme outside. He made a big forward move when sent two turns in his second start on Jan. 31 despite a very wide trip to the stretch and finished well against the race shape. He gets blinkers on today and will probably get overlooked in the betting. Beware.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 TIZ NOW TIZ 5/1 6/1
3 MEDJOOL 9/2 6/1
7 CATASTAIRE 9/2 6/1
8 NO LIEN HERE 5/1 6/1
10 MATTYS G FORCE 14/1 18/1
12 PEARL FISHER 8/1 10/1
10th— (BEST PLAY) 7 FORMAL RUSH & 9 TRICK A CAT co-top choices; strong exacta box 2-7-9.
In another wide-open scramble and this one a big field on turf, the 7/2 morning line favorite is Britney Heat, who is an also eligible and may or may not draw in. I hope she does run because she’s a morning line underlay at 7/2 and also would have an undesirable post if she does get in. Keep in mind, that scratches, like the possible one of Britney Heat, would negate my fair odds line. I’m going to try and win this race going three deep. ROYAL PRANA came against the grain of a slow race shape to finish strongly at this level on Jan. 10 and has come back with two big works. FORMAL RUSH is on a very favorable pattern. She’s had two turf sprints and stretches out. Two races back, she had a good tightener down the hill. Last time, she broke from the unfavorable inside and was off slowly and never in the hunt. Today, she is third start into her form cycle, often a peaking pattern, and stretches out to a mile. Three of her seven lifetime wins have been at this distance and her races last fall put her right there. TRICK A CAT showed little in her comeback sprint on Jan. 13. She’s had trained really well going into that race and has two solid works since. Three of her four lifetime wins have come at this mile distance, including one last Feb. 22, almost a year ago.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 ROYAL PRANA 9/2 5/1
4 ROANAWAY BRIDE 5/1 6/1
6 PINDARIC 10/1 13/1
7 FORMAL RUSH 4/1 5/1
9 TRICK A CAT 9/2 6/1
13 BRITNEY HEAT (MLU) 7/1 9/1
(MLU = morning line underlay and throw out in any exacta plays)
1st— PASS.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 AWESOME BROAD 7/2 9/2
5 STAR’S PROMISE 4/1 5/1
7 MIKEY BONES 7/1 9/1
8 SANMELI 6/1 8/1
10 SOUTH AFRICAN 5/2 3/1
2nd— 7 BEYOND LOADED & 9 DAKOTA PADRE co-top choices; exacta box 5-7-9
BEYOND LOADED likes the hillside turf course and gets Gomez for his second start off the layoff. He’s worked :58.1h and 1:13.2h since the comeback race to have him primed for a big try. DAKOTA PADRE was developing as a 3-year-old and has returned a better 4-year-old, always a positive sign. He got his first taste of running down the hill on Jan. 21 and despite a wide trip punched it in nicely and the fig came up strong. It’s quite clear that FURIOSO STAR has enough speed to clear this field and be very dangerous on the front end. He’s on a bounce back pattern after a big comeback win on Dec. 28. In his next start, he got blown away by a good colt in Street Boss. Although sire Memo is just average getting turf winners, ‘STAR’s dam, Miss Excitement, who turf races herself. However, ‘STAR is meeting tested open company today and whereas he should be used in the exacta, I think he’ll get worn down late by one of the closers.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
3 MEDZENDEEKRON 7/1 9/1
4 SWIFT WINDS 10/1 13/1
5 FURIOSO STAR 5/1 6/1
6 SURF TOWN 10/1 13/1
7 BEYOND LOADED 7/2 9/2
9 DAKOTA PADRE 7/2 9/2
3rd— 6 SILK THUNDER on top or PASS.
The public loves to bet fast-working first-time starters in non-descript fields such as this one and SILK THUNDER fits the bill perfectly. She looks like a something in a nothing race and is almost guaranteed to be even money. The workouts over the track have been solid, capped off by a sharp :46.1hg work on Feb. 13 and the presence of Gomez on board is, of course, a positive. Sire Silver Deputy gets 14% first out winners in the long term and that’s grade A on turfday.com. If there’s a caution at all, it’s the sure underlay price and that trainer Eoin Harty is 1/28 winning with first-time starters in the past year and 12/103 in the last three years, grade C on turfday.com. Masterful Miss is a trial filly who gets a comfortable outside draw. Two races back when getting off the turf and on to the synthetic, she ran her best race and earned a fig just above par, a third behind Crown of Diamonds. ‘Miss looks like the only other option in a less than stellar field. I won’t be playing this race but you might.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 ENTRY 8/1 10/1
3 EARLE’S FIRST 9/1 11/1
5 STORMY ALIBI 8/1 10/1
6 SILK THUNDER 7/5 2/1
8 MASTERFUL MISS 2/1 5/2
4th— 6 PAUL’S HOPE on top or PASS. (fair odds below incorrect due to scratch of Spot the Diplomat)
A small field that looks like a poor warmup to the Pick 6 carryover. If there’s an idea in the race, it’s to play against the 2/1 morning line favorite Familiar Stranger, who might be a one shot wonder and can’t be very sound.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 PRIME RULER 7/1 9/1
3 SPOT THE DIPLOMAT 5/2 3/1
5 BYE NOW 8/1 10/1
6 PAUL’S HOPE 5/2 3/1
7 FAMILIAR STRANGER 4/1 5/1
Note: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can’t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes!
5th- 5 SIAMESE CAT on top or PASS.
It’s an interesting, competitive start to yet another wide open Pick 6 sequence. For my purposes, the races itself comes up unplayable unless it’s a small win bet on SIAMESE CAT. I’ve got the first three morning line choices as my first three fair odds choices (almost exactly the same) and each one of the three has something going for them to make them a strong contender. I’m not going to suggest an exacta box of the first three choices in a big field of turf fillies. AINAMAA is off a long layoff, but showed real talent in her three races here last year. The work tab leading into this comeback is solid, she draws inside to hopefully save ground and Blanc knows her from riding her last year. The negative is that trainer Ben Cecil is 0/17 with 120 + day layoff types in the last three years and 11/113 in the long term (just 10%, grade C on turfday.com). SIAMESE CAT is the deserving favorite since she has been in action recently and has a win over the course on Jan. 1. And she’s been running against big fields, especially in England where she was very competitive. DELMARVA is a talented filly who has had exactly one race since Oct. 20, 2006 and she’s had gaps in her sequence of races prior to that indicating unsoundness. She draws an undesirable outside post for today’s comeback, but gets red hot Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. Note that she ran super “fresh” twice in the past on Jan. 25, 2006 and again on Aug. 14, 2006 and she can show tactical speed if asked. Clocker Andy Harrington has been impressed by her works leading up to this.
So it looks like the two comebackers vs. the filly with more recency on your main Pick 6 ticket. Recent winner Lightmyfirebaby, Big Bertha, who won two turning at Del Mar, and Silver Moonshine, after her third straight win, but slower than these and drawn poorly, are the longshots in the race that perhaps could be used on a backup ticket if you’re playing a large amount in the Pick 6
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 AINAMAA 7/2 9/2
2 LIGHTMYFIREBABY 10/1 13/1
5 SIAMESE CAT 3/1 4/1
7 BIG BERTHA 10/1 13/1
10 DELMARVA 4/1 5/1
11 SILVER MOON 14/1 18/1
6th— (BEST PLAY) 1 NORWAY HOUSE on top (possible Pick 6 single?), exactas 1-5, 1-7, 7-1, 7-5; extra ticket or two 1-7, 7-1 combos. If SI CHIMI is much above 7/2, he’s also a good value win bet.
If old pro NORWAY HOUSE has one more left in him, and he seems to like this track, he should flat out beat this field at a short price. Either of his last two should win this and his other two main rivals, The Rye Man and SI CHIMI, don’t appear to have as much tactical speed. SI CHIMI looms the value at 8/1 on the line. Mark Glatt bumped him up two levels to $20,000 off the claim last out and put blinkers on him. ‘CHIMI broke in the air and lost his chance, so the race can be tossed. He’s back down one level below the $12,500 he was claimed for and this is a very weak field. He has several races to go back to last year when he was trained by Mike Mitchell that would win this. The Rye Man comes from way back and the race shape doesn’t seem like it will suit. He’s a use if you’re playing a bigger size Pick 6 ticket. I’m throwing out 4/1 third choice 8-year-old Manhattan Express, who has run 60 times and is 1/22 going this distance and is 0/13 at Santa Anita.
Pick 6 players might consider singling NORWAY HOUSE or doubling the race with SI CHIMI. The Rye Man would go on a backup ticket or a larger main ticket.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 NORWAY HOUSE 7/5 2/1
3 MANHATTAN EXP (MLU) 8/1 10/1
5 THE RYE MAN 7/2 9/2
7 SI CHIMI 7/2 9/2
8 QUIET PERIOD 9/1 11/1
7th— 11 DEVILS MARTINI on top or PASS.
Maybe the racing gods, who have been so unkind to form players in recent days, will throw them a bone here to get home Classy Attraction, who figures to make the lead, or True Suggestion, who will be coming from behind. Those two look like the lukewarm favorites in a race that most Pick 6 players are going to understandably spread. And don’t you HATE THAT? You spread the race expecting a price and a favorite that looked beatable wins. Keep in mind, Victor Fernandez, the trainer of Classy Attraction, is 1/57 in the last three years and only 5/83 long term. So the racing gods are going to have to be very generous. But to her credit, Classy Attraction looks like a trier and did run second behind males on Jan. 14. True Suggestion’s two races thus far look good “on paper” but in reality have been horribly slow and way below par. That she is 7/2 in this field tells you how weak the others look. Hurricane Retsina gets blinkers on and maybe that’s a reason itself to consider her. The 5/1 first-time starter Run Savio Run has no works of note and her sire, Sunday Break, is an uninspiring 2/55 winning with first-time starters. DEVILS MARTINI (12/1 morning line, 7/1 my fair odds) might provide some betting value simply because she’s a decently bred second-time starter dropping out of a better race with a solid trainer and jockey. She showed no evidence that she could run in her debut, but she has a right to improve and it’s good that Flores rides her back. Trainer Pete Miller is only 4/56 winning with first-time starters, so maybe it wasn’t a surprise she showed little. However, although this isn’t the exact applicable stat, Miller is a solid 10/50 (20%) second off the layoff. Although this isn’t “second off the layoff,” it does show that Miller’s stock improves second time out. It’s sheer speculation, but at 12/1 on the line, I’ll take a shot.
Pick 6 players are advised to use all six below on your ticket and, if you can afford it, add on whoever else you like. Smaller tickets should use at least the 3 & 11.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
3 CLASSY ATTRACTION 4/1 5/1
7 HURRICANE RETSINA 10/1 13/1
8 FORGIVING SPIRIT 14/1 18/1
10 COLONY TRICK 9/1 11/1
11 DEVILS MARTINI 7/1 9/1
12 TRUE SUGGESTION 9/2 6/1
8th— PASS.
It’s a small field and I don’t see a reason to play the race itself. For Pick 6 purposes, the three obvious must uses are COSTUME, TRICK’S PIC and BLACK MAMBA. Frankel must really think a lot of COSTUME to continue to run her in graded stakes even though she is still eligible for her first allowance condition. TRICK’S PIC won very decisively in a big, improved effort at this distance on Jan. 19 when making her first start for trainer Doug O’Neill, always a positive sign that he may have found something, so further improvement is possible. BLACK MAMBA has been facing the best company and has been running the best figs. But it appears she missed 29 days of training between her race on Dec. 16 and her next workout on Jan. 14. And Jan. 14 was the date of the Grade II San Gorgonino at 1 1/8 miles turf that she could have run in (and missed), which was only a five-horse field (COSTUME was fourth in that race).
Pick 6 players should obviously use 4, 6 & 7 and strongly consider 5 if you’re playing a bigger ticket.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
1 KRIS’ SIS 8/1 10/1
4 COSTUME 7/2 9/2
5 ALEXANDRA ROSE 4/1 5/1
6 TRICK’S PIC 3/1 4/1
7 BLACK MAMBA 5/2 3/1
9th— Check fair odds vs. actual for a possible overlay win bet. 7 CATASTAIRE and/or 12 PEARL FISHER could offer the best value and the ones I would look closest at, but compare all of the prices.
Great betting race with no real favorite. I would use all six below on your main Pick 6 ticket. The next tier below them on a Pick 6 backup ticket would be 4-6-9 if you’re playing a large amount. My throwouts are 1-5-11, which includes 6/1 firster Thrust, who has way too many workouts (27 dating back to July 22) without Drysdale even entering him, isn’t noted using Lasix in DRF and has a bad post in a big field. Here are some things to consider. The Beyer figs underrate TIZ NOW TIZ THEN. Trainer Dave Hofmans has two entrants in this race, including the 7/2 morning line favorite MEDJOOL. MEDJOOL, who didn’t have a clean trip in the Cal Derby, is a must use on your Pick 6 ticket, but keep in mind that Hofmans is 0/19 in the last 30 days and only 5/62 in the last 90 days. CATASTAIRE is a most interesting possibility. He has been closing strongly against slow race shapes on the turf. Today, he’s going to get some pace to run at with sprinters Screen to Screen and NO LIEN HERE signed on. If he takes to the synthentic, he could blow this field away, but he’ll have to do it coming from far back in a big field where traffic is a consideration. NO LIEN HERE has been bet like a good thing in both of his starts and Andy has always thought he is a runner. He’s stretches out today and puts blinkers on for O’Neill, who is very adept winning with blinkers on and on the stretch out. MATTYS G FORCE has trained better than the final times would indicate for hot trainer Mike Mitchell, who has been winning far more often lately with first-time starters than he did in the past. Still, it’s a tough task to win first out going two turns in a big field and ‘G FORCE’s sire, Matty G, is a poor 11/190 (6%) winning with his first-time starters. If you need to cut down your ticket a bit, he would be the one to chop off. PEARL FISHER is the surprise package who unfortunately draws the extreme outside. He made a big forward move when sent two turns in his second start on Jan. 31 despite a very wide trip to the stretch and finished well against the race shape. He gets blinkers on today and will probably get overlooked in the betting. Beware.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 TIZ NOW TIZ 5/1 6/1
3 MEDJOOL 9/2 6/1
7 CATASTAIRE 9/2 6/1
8 NO LIEN HERE 5/1 6/1
10 MATTYS G FORCE 14/1 18/1
12 PEARL FISHER 8/1 10/1
10th— (BEST PLAY) 7 FORMAL RUSH & 9 TRICK A CAT co-top choices; strong exacta box 2-7-9.
In another wide-open scramble and this one a big field on turf, the 7/2 morning line favorite is Britney Heat, who is an also eligible and may or may not draw in. I hope she does run because she’s a morning line underlay at 7/2 and also would have an undesirable post if she does get in. Keep in mind, that scratches, like the possible one of Britney Heat, would negate my fair odds line. I’m going to try and win this race going three deep. ROYAL PRANA came against the grain of a slow race shape to finish strongly at this level on Jan. 10 and has come back with two big works. FORMAL RUSH is on a very favorable pattern. She’s had two turf sprints and stretches out. Two races back, she had a good tightener down the hill. Last time, she broke from the unfavorable inside and was off slowly and never in the hunt. Today, she is third start into her form cycle, often a peaking pattern, and stretches out to a mile. Three of her seven lifetime wins have been at this distance and her races last fall put her right there. TRICK A CAT showed little in her comeback sprint on Jan. 13. She’s had trained really well going into that race and has two solid works since. Three of her four lifetime wins have come at this mile distance, including one last Feb. 22, almost a year ago.
# HORSE FAIR VERY GOOD BET AT >
2 ROYAL PRANA 9/2 5/1
4 ROANAWAY BRIDE 5/1 6/1
6 PINDARIC 10/1 13/1
7 FORMAL RUSH 4/1 5/1
9 TRICK A CAT 9/2 6/1
13 BRITNEY HEAT (MLU) 7/1 9/1