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Partsnut
02-18-2008, 09:30 AM
AQU 02-18-08 Race -7
SYNERGISM 2

I used speed points and running style to determine that this race sets up for an early horse.

The track bias favors early judging from the last eight races 6 (Early) 1 (Avg) 1 (Late)

The top 4 FW factor horses win about 87% of the time if you have the correct contenders and pace lines.


FW
1- (5)
2- (3)
3- (2)
4- (1)

Let's look at the balance numbers.

5...............3...............2...............1
1.18...........1.93...........0.31..........1.70
(AVG).........(EARLY)......(LATE).......(EARLY)

So according to the race shape it looks like it's between the 3 & 1.
My preference is the (3)

I've included the Synergism 2 Screen Shots for your inspection.
All opinions are welcomed.
duckhunter3
02-18-2008, 10:12 AM
I think it is between the 4 and 7, with the 1 and 6 having an outside chance.

We shall see.
duckhunter3
onefast99
02-18-2008, 10:18 AM
The track too in a lot of moisture between yesterday evening and early this morning. Will this have an effect on the speed bias today? I think it will. Good analysis on this race.
Partsnut
02-18-2008, 11:17 AM
The track too in a lot of moisture between yesterday evening and early this morning. Will this have an effect on the speed bias today? I think it will. Good analysis on this race.

duckhunter3 I think it is between the 4 and 7, with the 1 and 6 having an outside chance.

We shall see.
duckhunter3

I appreciate the participation. :jump:

onefast99 brings up an excellent point.
The bias could very well change with the winds and rain NY has been having.
If the track is rated as "Sloppy" I believe it will still favor early, although there may be somewhat of a departure from the average pace variant in this race.
Partsnut
02-18-2008, 03:46 PM
As I suspected my second choice won paying a healthy price.
He was an early type horse so the bias held up.

My biggest problem was splitting my 2 horses.
They both went off at great odds.
In a case like this it might have been prudent to bet both to win.
However in this race, betting just the (3) cost me.
onefast99
02-18-2008, 04:09 PM
When your down to 2 horses to choose from at those odds you are right bet the house on both!