LOSING FAVORITES

[imanatm]

ANYONE RESEARCHED FREQUENT REASONS WHY RUNS OUT OF THE MONEY. I WOULD LOVE TO PITCH THE CHALK IN MY TRI BETS.

I THINK ITS DUE TO TRAINER SWITCHES AND TRACK SWITCHES. LOOKING FOR QUANTIFIED DATA .. THANKS

[imanatm]

wow.. nobody is interested in improving the roi on thier spotplays. No interest in exclusion factors.

[jonnielu]

ANYONE RESEARCHED FREQUENT REASONS WHY RUNS OUT OF THE MONEY. I WOULD LOVE TO PITCH THE CHALK IN MY TRI BETS.

I THINK ITS DUE TO TRAINER SWITCHES AND TRACK SWITCHES. LOOKING FOR QUANTIFIED DATA .. THANKS

It will probably be tought to find quantified data on this, most here are too busy betting the chalk and assigning the losses to track/rider, to spend any time looking into why and when the favorite runs out. At least... looking for any real resons.

jdl

[Jeff P]

There was a thread here on this same subject about a month ago:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4143&highlight=favorites

Late last year and earlier this year I devoted a fair amount of R&D time into creating an algorithm for JCapper that deals specifically with post time favorites. The goal was to use a handful of JCapper numbers to categorize post time favorites as either legit or vulnerable.

For anyone interested, here's a link to a thread on my message board that takes a look at post time favorites categorized as either legit or vulnerable:
http://www.jcapper.ajthau.com/index.php?showtopic=1038

I should point out that the sample in the first post at the above link was run on the database used to create the algorithm. IOW it contains results that were back-fitted.

Post #21 in that thread contains a look at how the algorithm performed when confronted with fresh races from my Q1 2008 database.

The point I'm trying to make here is that it IS possible to use handicapping factors and numbers (not just mine but any good set of numbers) to do a number of things accurately going forward... including classifying post time favorites as either legit or vulnerable.


-jp

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[Robert Fischer]

EDIT - ... will add something

[kenwoodallpromos]

Slow break; no lead hoof switch; startled by something; stuck in traffic; anything untried; false fav due to good last race, big name trainer or jockey.

[imanatm]

Jeff. Did you find anything significant with post time favorites that were less than 4-5, I prefer to bet these to win and place. Any specific factors? MY list would be topped by shipping horses and class droppers, for most likely to be overbet and run off the board?

[Jeff P]

The single most significant thing I discovered was how the post time favorite stacks up vs the field using any number of comprehensive power ratings. Of course the better the power rating the more accurate and useful it proves to be when categorizing favorites.

Here's a link to another thread here from a while back:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38768&page=1&pp=15&highlight=Prime+Power+favorites

About the 4th post from the top I presented a data sample showing post time favorites broken out by one of the ratings in JCapper (JPR.)

I also pointed out that by looking at post time favorites in terms of rank for Bris Prime Power a player can get passable but less accurate results without shelling out $$ for a program like mine.

You asked about betting favorites at odds of 4/5 or less...

Research I've done suggests that favorites bet down well below their morning lines can be very tough to beat. A lot of the time that descibes a favorite going to post at 4/5 or less.

From a playing strategy standpoint there are very few races where I actually BET a post time favorite. Overall I've found it better to try to either BEAT the post time favorite or pass the race.


-jp

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[Marshall Bennett]

May be as simple as law of averages . Excluding superstars < no money to be made here : any player with a bat is a potential home run , any horse with 4 good legs is a potential winner . Though this may seem simple by most handicapping standards , how many millionaires do you know that made their fortune betting horses ?

[skate]

Lots of reasons.

The biggest one "the Odds"

[Robert Fischer]

The single most significant thing I discovered was how the post time favorite stacks up vs the field

That is really the crux. Jeff P sounds like he is doing the right things.



All the little angles and factors can help in selecting a race, but you still have to stack up the favorite to the field.

Angles aren't really a significant part of my game, so I usually share a derby-prep Losing Fav. angle every time this thread comes around :D:




Has led at every call in every race at sprint distances
today stepping up in class and going 9 furlongs.
Has run some very fast times
Big Beyer
Has generated some hype
Maybe this horse will pop up by the time we get into the 9 furlong preps, haven't seen him yet, but he usually does and is bet down to at least 2nd or 3rd choice. Rarely runs in the tri.

Handicapping and wagering is the heart of it. As you start to figure things out, it gets easier to select the races. Favorites and all of the money distribution in the pools is an extremely important part of the game.

[dav4463]

Negative or suspicious class move

Bounce candidate

Low trainer and/or jockey win percent

Zero early speed in pps, in a sprint today

Too good to be true, absolute best numbers in race but doesn't belong with today's field

Poor form such as a long layoff and no solid works

[imanatm]

Could anyone quantify data on horses that are 3-5 or less that are shipping compared to thos that are not. I see those get beat alot. That would make for some nice exotics.