Pick 6 will carry over to Sunday at S.A.

[theratpac]

Very competive racing at S.A. tomorrow, could be a carry over for Sunday. What do you all think?:confused:

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

The pick six may carryover to Sunday.

[linrom1]

The pick six will carryover to Sunday

Someone loses out on 211k P6 by a nose to 50-1 FTS. The trainer, Mathew Chew is getting to be some FTS trainer. I think he pulled the same stunt last week with another bomb.


Edit: Oh no, evil post 666. At least it's out of way.

[theratpac]

The pick six may carryover to Sunday.

I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. :)

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I know Matthew Chew had a longshot winner about a year ago named
Capt. Sparrow that paid $60.60 in a 40k maiden claimer race with Atongrgi up.

He knows how to get the job done from time to time.

[bigmack]

Someone loses out on 211k P6 by a nose to 50-1 FTS.
It was 411K.

I hope they didn't soil themselves.

http://www.santaanita.com/racing/photofinish/20080216_3_10.jpg

[theratpac]

I know Matthew Chew had a longshot winner about a year ago named
Capt. Sparrow that paid $60.60 in a 40k maiden claimer race with Atongrgi up.

He knows how to get the job done from time to time.

Yes they all win from time to time, it just depends if its your time to bet on them???????????????????

[Hajck Hillstrom]

It was 411K.There were two live tickets to the 11 for about 211k.

[bigmack]

There were two live tickets to the 11 for about 211k.
Yeah, I was corrected twice on the phone in the last half hour.

Damn if Turkish Victory didn't give a gutsy driven finish, fully extended, for the place.

[topgun]

Hello,

I think the pick six in California is a JOKE, I have been following the pick six for years and I know if someone would do some research on how many carry overs it's been since the lost those days because of track surface or should I say CRAP surface! Will the person or person's who do the research also check how many carryovers it's been going into a holiday, as if I had a monster data base I could give you the number of times this has happen. The pick six is there bread and butter! I can recall a time when there was a full field of 14 and only one horse could carry it over and it was 60-1 and he romp, so go figure. I do not play the pick six at all, just something I noticed.


Topgun

[theratpac]

Hello,

I think the pick six in California is a JOKE, I have been following the pick six for years and I know if someone would do some research on how many carry overs it's been since the lost those days because of track surface or should I say CRAP surface! Will the person or person's who do the research also check how many carryovers it's been going into a holiday, as if I had a monster data base I could give you the number of times this has happen. The pick six is there bread and butter! I can recall a time when there was a full field of 14 and only one horse could carry it over and it was 60-1 and he romp, so go figure. I do not play the pick six at all, just something I noticed.


Topgun

Your absolutly right, funny how that happens makes you kinda wonder, I am done with the pick 6 also. Better to go pick 3's 2 out of 3 always sounds like your in the ball game. Good post topgun:ThmbUp:

[DanG]

Hello,

I think the pick six in California is a JOKE. Will the person or person's who do the research also check how many carryovers it's been going into a holiday, as if I had a monster data base I could give you the number of times this has happen. The pick six is there bread and butter! I can recall a time when there was a full field of 14 and only one horse could carry it over and it was 60-1 and he romp, so go figure. I do not play the pick six at all, just something I noticed.
May I ask…Just who is involved in this conspiracy?

Yes; the racing secretary works very hard to make it as challenging as possible. This includes more volatile cards going into a major stakes days etc…It’s hard to blame them with the impact a carry-over has across all pools.

As a general rule imo…

The pick-6 is a terrible bet when under-funded. I know most won’t agree, but all wagers >$18 dollars and under $800 are just setting fire to your cash imo. (On all but the rare “fish in a barrel” cards) Anyone playing tickets between these denominations should attempt either or both of the following…



Team up and form a syndicate.
Not play until sufficient funds are available and then don’t take half measures…attack it when you see an edge.

[rrpic6]

It was 411K.

I hope they didn't soil themselves.

http://www.santaanita.com/racing/photofinish/20080216_3_10.jpgOMG!! That's sick! I played online earlier in the day and saw none of the races..just results. I was more interested in getting ready to watch Kelly Pavlik make us proud here in Y-Town. I finally looked at the charts and lost my breath. I guess I should be happy that Bejarano beat me at the wire in the 9th race! Here's my ticket albeit a REDBOARD...for losers of course.
1,6/3,4,5,6,7/3,7,8,9/5/2,6,7,9,11/5/2,6,7,9,11/11/
At least I hit a couple pic 3's in the sequence to cover my bets.
Maybe I'll post a ticket before post time Monday...anyone can do it after and piss and moan.

RR

[linrom1]

Today, someone was alive in P6 to #3, a FTS starter bomb at 30-1. So what happens, the chalk #11 with Gomez wins for another carryover. :lol:

[JustRalph]

not even close.......if you blow it up a little............. :lol:

[MakinItHappen]

As a general rule imo…

The pick-6 is a terrible bet when under-funded. I know most won’t agree, but all wagers >$18 dollars and under $800 are just setting fire to your cash imo. (On all but the rare “fish in a barrel” cards) Anyone playing tickets between these denominations should attempt either or both of the following…

Team up and form a syndicate.
Not play until sufficient funds are available and then don’t take half measures…attack it when you see an edge.


DanG,

I enjoy reading your handicapping thoughts and was curious as to whether you feel that your above "general" comments hold true in a situation like today at Santa Anita?

In my opinion, on a day like today when you have $1.2 Million of "dead money" in the pool and lots of new money going DEEP, why not throw in a handful of smallish chalk-laden tickets in the hopes that the card plays chalky and you get a nice OVERLAY pay-off. I realize that it does not look likely, but stranger things have happened and the upside could be pretty nice. Again, in my opinion this approach would seem to be keeping with the principle that it is not important that you win, only that you get value.

It sure is a lot less stressful and more enjoyable to "invest" $100 and give yourself a chance, than to invest thousands of $'s and count on winning! (IMHO) If I tabbed it up correctly, we are looking at in excess of 1.3 Million possible combinations in today's P6. Let's face it, even with a $10,000 ticket, hitting this thing is far from a cinch!

I was tempted by an opportunity to buy into 10% of a $5k ticket, but declined in favor of the "value" approach. In retrospect, I suppose I could justify going either way, but I sincerely do believe that there is more potential value in going the route I have chosen. Obviously, however, it is much less likely that I will hit today.

Just curious how you and other board members view today's Pick 6 wagering scenario at Santa Anita.

Best of Luck Today DanG and Everyone Who Takes A Whack At The SAX P6!

MakinItHappen

[cnollfan]

DanG,



In my opinion, on a day like today when you have $1.2 Million of "dead money" in the pool and lots of new money going DEEP, why not throw in a handful of smallish chalk-laden tickets in the hopes that the card plays chalky and you get a nice OVERLAY pay-off.

If I tabbed it up correctly, we are looking at in excess of 1.3 Million possible combinations in today's P6. Let's face it, even with a $10,000 ticket, hitting this thing is far from a cinch!



MakinItHappen

I agree completely. I am not a good enough handicapper to bet $10k and have any confidence that I would cash. I'd rather bet a much smaller ticket using the horses that I like and see what happens.

I ended up designing a $448 ticket today on an A-B-C construction and split it four ways for $112 each.

When there is a million in the pool and syndicates betting several millions more, I don't see any harm in trying to snag a big fish on the cheap.

[DanG]

In my opinion, on a day like today when you have $1.2 Million of "dead money" in the pool and lots of new money going DEEP, why not throw in a handful of smallish chalk-laden tickets in the hopes that the card plays chalky and you get a nice OVERLAY pay-off.

I was tempted by an opportunity to buy into 10% of a $5k ticket, but declined in favor of the "value" approach. In retrospect, I suppose I could justify going either way, but I sincerely do believe that there is more potential value in going the route I have chosen. Obviously, however, it is much less likely that I will hit today.

Agreed MIH;

These type pools (and forced payouts on closing days) can be the exceptions.

Impossible to tell a man what to do unless you walk in their shoes, but I would always take the % of more coverage rather than cut corners going solo. Even though a logical (can we use that word on a card this tough?) :faint: outcome will pay infinitely better because of the “dead money” as you said, there are still the brutal mathematics of scoring.

It never ceases to amaze me how many excellent cappers can get 3, 4 even 5 of 6 and there always seems to be that bust out horse that screws the sequence. Yesterday I used the bust out “Cheroot” in the 9th, but only on grade-C tickets. If the #1 (Great Siege) wins the 1st leg it’s a major score, as it is…its try again today.

Tough…tough bet. :bang: