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View Full Version : Making sense of TSN/BRIS results files


ryesteve
02-15-2008, 04:57 PM
I just realized that the pick 3 payouts in the Exotic Results files sometimes contain payoffs that are clearly wrong. In the cases where they've left out the decimal point, it's easy to tell what happened. You can also pretty much tell when the problem is that they've reported the payout based on a dime bet. But I'm also seeing hundreds of instances where the payout doesn't make sense at all... it's way too high compared to a parlay payout, but not high enough for it to have been a dime payout figure. I suppose part of the problem could be dead heat situations where the wrong payout is being assigned to the wrong combination... but I'd be surprised if that explained away all these instances.

Does anyone have any experience in trying to clean up this mess? And in general, what would you say is a payout that is too high to be credible? Excluding combinations that include long odds horses that can throw off these calculations, would you be suspicious of a payout that is 5x the parlay? 8x the parlay? 3x the parlay?

cj
02-15-2008, 05:00 PM
Did you look up the payouts in the actual charts? I doubt there are as many errors as you assume. At the smaller tracks especially, it is very tough to estimate what any P3 will pay.

ryesteve
02-15-2008, 05:12 PM
I'm looking at older data for which I no longer can pull up the charts (without paying). Here are some examples of payouts that look odd (and I apologize for only having dates and not race #s)

AQU 3/11/07: two 5/2 shots and a 2-1 shot returns $433.00
BEU 3/23/07: a 6/5, 2-1 and 3-1 returns 428.40
PRM 9/15/07: 5/2, 7-1, 1-1 returns 1,136.00
HAW 10/6/07: 7/2, 8/5, 6-1 returns 927.00
PHA 12/28/07: 7/2, 4/5, 1-1 returns 290.40

Agreed that it's difficult to anticipate payouts, but it's hard to believe that combinations containing relatively low odds horses can return 5-7x what the parlay would have paid, unless as you said, it's a small pool causing the chaos.

BillW
02-15-2008, 05:19 PM
I'm looking at older data for which I no longer can pull up the charts (without paying). Here are some examples of payouts that look odd (and I apologize for only having dates and not race #s)

AQU 3/11/07: two 5/2 shots and a 2-1 shot returns $433.00
BEU 3/23/07: a 6/5, 2-1 and 3-1 returns 428.40
PRM 9/15/07: 5/2, 7-1, 1-1 returns 1,136.00
HAW 10/6/07: 7/2, 8/5, 6-1 returns 927.00
PHA 12/28/07: 7/2, 4/5, 1-1 returns 290.40

Agreed that it's difficult to anticipate payouts, but it's hard to believe that combinations containing relatively low odds horses can return 5-7x what the parlay would have paid, unless as you said, it's a small pool causing the chaos.

All of them look good here from HDW charts.

ryesteve
02-15-2008, 11:57 PM
All of them look good here from HDW charts.
Thanks for checking... but man, I don't see how you can get back almost $300 for a 7/2 shot and two odds-on favorites...

BillW
02-16-2008, 12:08 AM
Thanks for checking... but man, I don't see how you can get back almost $300 for a 7/2 shot and two odds-on favorites...

small pools = high volatility. this pool was only $7800. With 1152 combinations (12x12x8) that's only an avg of $7 bet per combination.

DanG
02-16-2008, 07:55 AM
small pools = high volatility. this pool was only $7800. With 1152 combinations (12x12x8) that's only an avg of $7 bet per combination.
Nice way to break it down Bill. :ThmbUp:

ryesteve
02-16-2008, 08:26 AM
small pools = high volatility. this pool was only $7800. With 1152 combinations (12x12x8) that's only an avg of $7 bet per combination.
Good info, thanks... didn't realize the first two legs were 12-horse fields. That certainly adds some important context.