Morning line mental block

[Great Communicator]

I think the M/L is very important, it does help to guide handicappers like myself who have no illusions (delusions?) of becoming a pro and don't put excessive efforts into it. It's supposed to be a general predictor of what odds the public will make the field running, and not the personal preference of the morning linesmaker. So I've heard and read, anyway.

I have no problems playing horses up to and including a M/L of 15-1. My mental block begins at 20-1.

If a morning linesmaker has made a horse 20-1 or higher, in my mind it no longer comes under the jurisdiction of predicting what the public will make the horse's odds.

When I see 20-1 or higher, the linesmaker is telling me this horse stinks (relative to the rest of the field). Stay far far away from this animal, is what my brain translates 20-1 or higher M/L. If it's a 15-1 M/L, no problem, I can play this horse to win or in the exotics, regardless of what the public has sent this horse off at. At 20-1 and up M/L, I just can't use the horse. Whether it's going off at 50-1 or if it's been bet down to 12-1.

It frustrates me to no end when these horses hit the board. It's like I'm blaming the linesmaker, why did you tell me the horse was 20-1 or 30-1, when really he was pretty good???!!!

Anyone else have this mental block? It drives me nuts when a M/L of 30-1 finishes 2nd or 3rd, especially when I was looking at it and decided to "trust" the morning linesmaker. Any types of 20-1 and up M/L horses you're not "afraid" to use?

[cj]

Most linemakers have little incentive to make a good morning line. There are a few that do a good job, but most outright stink.

[JustRalph]

Most linemakers have little incentive to make a good morning line. There are a few that do a good job, but most outright stink.

exactly. It all depends on where you play. But I could give a damn about most of them

[jeebus1083]

The morning line is only the oddsmaker's prediction of how the public will bet. What matters the most are the odds posted on the toteboard during betting, when money is changing hands. Some oddsmakers are pretty accurate, while others are very inaccurate.

My advice is not to pay attention to ML odds at all. The DRF does not put the ML odds in the body of each horse's PPs like Brisnet or Equibase does. There are enough factors in a horse race that influence people's decisions. Don't let the ML influence you. Trust your gut. If you like a horse on fundamental dope and the public is giving you 30-1 on it, bite into it. Remember, pari-mutuel wagering is a competition amongst ourselves. Vive la difference. Just because 55% of the money is on an odds-on chalk does not mean that the result is a given, and that you have to follow the crowd. So many things can happen in the body of a horse race that result in some oft-puzzling outcomes. Give yourself a chance to win. Trust your original gut instinct. Don't let one man's opinion on paper scare you away from your own.

[alysheba88]

This is a confidence game. You have to believe you are smarter then the public and ML maker. If you let either dictate your betting decisions you are doomed.

[boomman]

I think the M/L is very important, it does help to guide handicappers like myself who have no illusions (delusions?) of becoming a pro and don't put excessive efforts into it. It's supposed to be a general predictor of what odds the public will make the field running, and not the personal preference of the morning linesmaker. So I've heard and read, anyway.

I have no problems playing horses up to and including a M/L of 15-1. My mental block begins at 20-1.

If a morning linesmaker has made a horse 20-1 or higher, in my mind it no longer comes under the jurisdiction of predicting what the public will make the horse's odds.


When I see 20-1 or higher, the linesmaker is telling me this horse stinks (relative to the rest of the field). Stay far far away from this animal, is what my brain translates 20-1 or higher M/L. If it's a 15-1 M/L, no problem, I can play this horse to win or in the exotics, regardless of what the public has sent this horse off at. At 20-1 and up M/L, I just can't use the horse. Whether it's going off at 50-1 or if it's been bet down to 12-1.

It frustrates me to no end when these horses hit the board. It's like I'm blaming the linesmaker, why did you tell me the horse was 20-1 or 30-1, when really he was pretty good???!!!

Anyone else have this mental block? It drives me nuts when a M/L of 30-1 finishes 2nd or 3rd, especially when I was looking at it and decided to "trust" the morning linesmaker. Any types of 20-1 and up M/L horses you're not "afraid" to use?

GC: Remember this: The morning line is a prediction. As posters have accurately pointed out here, some are good at it, some not so good. I have been a morning line maker and can tell you it was one of the most difficult jobs I ever held, especially early in my career when I was "green", the pools were small and a $50 bet would wildly effect the odds. The morning line should simply be viewed upon as one person's prediction of how the public will bet. It should in no way effect your wagering at all.......;)

Boomer

[DanG]

Just a couple challenges the ML maker has;

The line is…




Pre-scratch.
Pre-weather (for the most part)
Pre-surface change.
Pre-bias. (Perceived or otherwise it does affect the tote.)
Pre-favorite flips in the paddock
Pre-rider change.
Pre-opening $5,000 win bet on a 1st time starter.
Pre-unexplainable mass insanity by the betting public. (Wish this applied more often!) :D
Not to mention…If you’re in management you don’t want the line too “clever”. The esoteric trip, the sheet player’s “0-2-X” patterns or the horse that was stuck on a severe dead rail etc…It is thought to depress handle when these types of animals are graded well below expectation. (Let’s face it; most of us get a little more pumped when the animal we’ve been waiting to run back is marked 15-1.)

Tough job…I sure wouldn’t want it. If you make the line in NY for example, you had better have a rear-view mirror because the knife in your back is coming at some point.

Speaking of which…Here is the rank of the MLO so far on Aqu-Inner this meet. (Fast tracks only and all dist / class etc)
rMLO COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 354 104 29% 50% $0.77 $5.21 $18.40
2 334 69 21% 40% $0.82 $7.92 $34.20
3 341 50 15% 30% $0.73 $9.90 $20.00
4 375 46 12% 25% $0.90 $14.72 $40.40
5 333 33 10% 18% $0.99 $20.08 $89.00
6 334 19 6% 15% $0.79 $27.69 $56.00
7 275 8 3% 11% $0.29 $19.75 $44.00
8 154 3 2% 8% $0.55 $56.07 $98.00
9 166 2 1% 5% $0.36 $60.50 $73.00
For comparison here’s the rank of the off-tote odds…(Same criteria)
rODDS COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 364 127 35% 54% $0.88 $5.04 $9.30
2 328 64 20% 41% $0.73 $7.51 $10.40
3 327 43 13% 31% $0.68 $10.28 $16.80
4 325 35 11% 23% $0.76 $14.04 $22.40
5 331 30 9% 20% $0.85 $18.65 $45.40
6 314 22 7% 14% $1.01 $28.81 $56.00
7 269 5 2% 8% $0.39 $41.96 $57.00
8 201 5 2% 7% $0.71 $57.00 $98.00
9 207 3 1% 7% $0.37 $51.73 $73.00

[mountainman]

It frustrates me to no end when these horses hit the board. It's like I'm blaming the linesmaker, why did you tell me the horse was 20-1 or 30-1, when really he was pretty good???!!!

Anyone else have this mental block? It drives me nuts when a M/L of 30-1 finishes 2nd or 3rd, especially when I was looking at it and decided to "trust" the morning linesmaker. Any types of 20-1 and up M/L horses you're not "afraid" to use?

How the horse runs doesn't matter. The linesmaker's job is to predict odds, not performance. Few players can resist peaking at the line for some perspective. An accurate morning line can give a handicapper some early indication that he might find a race playable, or perhaps end up passing. For instance, I AM the linesmaker at mnr, and still find myself comparing my picks to the program odds while handicapping for the show. And the two processes are quite seperate. Once the morning line is done, I detach myself from it and think like a player.

[rrbauer]

Good stuff DanG! Any chance you have that set of stats for Tampa?

For me the ML is my quick guide to how the public is expected to see the race. And, from that I have a rough idea whether, or not, there might be some betting opportunities in a race given my handicapping opinion.

No doubt on some circuits the ML has more influence on betting than on other circuits. To "pick-pool" bettors this can become important in gauging how horses in buried or downstream legs of a pick-bet are going to be used.

[njcurveball]

When asked to make a morning line, most of the people doing it are 2 to 3 days or even more from race day. There is also no "do-overs".

When I did it, I had an hour to do the whole card. 10 minutes might seem like a lot of time to most, but you still cannot see everything. You have to take into account hot jocks and trainers, but with 1 or 2 cards running in between, that jock or trainer could very easily go cold.

For example, at ACRC, Tony Black went on a consecutive win streak. I think he won 9 or 10 races in a row. You don't have the option of knowing that before the card is run. With each mount, he is being bet more.

They also had one card with a horse named Wall Street something and the past performances given were from a stakes horse. The "real" horse was just a claimer and obviously went off much higher than the ML.

Mix in the fact you cannot guess the weather 2-3 days in advance and late workouts, scratches, etc.

One thing I was very proud of was that my #1 betting choice (at the bottom of the program in those days) showed a flat bet profit. (documented)

I would love to see the "critics" of the morning line try to do it for a few days. Very similar to training or riding horses. You may think you know, but you really don't know.

Jim

[jma]

Lots of informative posts here.

I want to add that while you definitely shouldn't worry about the morning line or let it "scare" you, you absolutely shouldn't do it when structuring a trifecta bet. You mentioned how frustrating it is when a 20-1 or 30-1 ML horse runs 3rd but you left him out because of the morning line---those horses are what can make you a winner. If you're betting trifectas, unless it truly looks like only 4 or 5 horses can run at all, you want to try to include any higher-odds horses that show positive signs because they could clunk up for third and make the bet worthwhile. Of course there are many variables in structuring a trifecta, but the point is that you want to get these horses onto your ticket. The 40-1 edging out a 2-1 shot for 3rd can make your trifecta.

[cmoore]

Ignore the morning line odds all together. I print my pps using the tsn custom pp generator. No ML odds...Only 5 races back...Workouts blended in...DO NOT let the ML odds sway your decisions. Ignore them completely.

[DanG]

Any chance you have that set of stats for Tampa?

Tampa; (This meet only, fast only for dirt data.)



DIRT / rMLO:
rMLO COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 321 95 30% 50% $0.78 $5.26 $10.20
2 322 68 21% 37% $0.80 $7.61 $15.20
3 334 37 11% 27% $0.54 $9.72 $26.20
4 372 48 13% 26% $0.93 $14.42 $44.40
5 351 25 7% 15% $0.77 $21.72 $49.60
6 321 19 6% 15% $0.91 $30.63 $80.20
7 327 15 5% 13% $0.86 $37.47 $108.60
8 302 9 3% 6% $0.68 $45.56 $87.20
9 383 5 1% 4% $0.50 $76.92 $107.60


DIRT / rTOTE:
RODDS COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 331 111 34% 51% $0.84 $4.98 $7.40
2 322 71 22% 40% $0.88 $7.98 $14.40
3 318 44 14% 31% $0.78 $11.27 $18.00
4 316 28 9% 22% $0.64 $14.40 $28.00
5 327 20 6% 19% $0.73 $23.75 $43.00
6 315 14 4% 13% $0.62 $28.07 $41.00
7 308 20 6% 11% $1.28 $39.43 $68.20
8 287 6 2% 8% $0.57 $54.87 $87.20
9 509 7 1% 4% $0.54 $78.03 $108.60


TURF / rMLO:
rMLO COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 82 28 34% 59% $1.00 $5.87 $10.00
2 82 12 15% 28% $0.57 $7.83 $15.80
3 82 12 15% 22% $0.74 $10.10 $15.80
4 96 10 10% 26% $0.64 $12.36 $19.60
5 99 9 9% 19% $1.08 $23.78 $56.40
6 72 2 3% 13% $0.69 $49.60 $62.60
7 86 3 3% 8% $0.66 $37.80 $77.80
8 93 5 5% 11% $0.80 $29.64 $61.20
9 110 1 1% 5% $0.30 $66.20 $66.20


TURF / rTOTE:
RODDS COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 85 31 36% 59% $1.02 $5.61 $7.80
2 84 20 24% 43% $0.97 $8.15 $11.00
3 77 7 9% 16% $0.58 $12.69 $19.60
4 84 10 12% 24% $0.88 $14.76 $16.80
5 80 2 3% 11% $0.23 $18.40 $19.00
6 84 3 4% 14% $0.37 $20.87 $21.80
7 80 3 4% 15% $0.59 $31.27 $36.60
8 81 4 5% 10% $1.59 $64.50 $77.80
9 147 2 1% 3% $0.41 $59.80 $66.20
All burger at Tampa; grouped by the rank of the MLO and left to right… [Avg MLO, Avg Tote, Stdev of Tote and field size.) Obviously the higher in odds the more volatile data becomes.

rMLO MLO TOTE STDEV FLD
1 2.5 2.1 1.3 9.5
2 3.5 3.9 2.1 9.5
3 4.8 5.8 3.1 9.5
4 6.6 8.8 5.4 9.5
5 8.7 12.7 8.1 9.5
6 11.5 19.8 13.6 9.5
7 14.4 29.8 20.9 9.7
8 17.9 43.6 26.8 9.8
9 22.3 61.0 26.7 10.7

[Tom]

Thanks, Dan....intreresting data.

[HUSKER55]

All good points here. But I just had this idea that might help and maybe not.

The ML is how the public is expected to bet. Look at it as "I have a chance to make money" and forget the win idea. Higher the odds the more money you make.

Just a thought. Hope it helps. :)

[mountainman]

I would love to see the "critics" of the morning line try to do it for a few days. Very similar to training or riding horses. You may think you know, but you really don't know.

Jim

Doing the morning line is much like doing tv analysis-most players believe they could do it better. Fair enough. But few handicappers REALLY understand how many factors make it difficult, even impossible sometimes, to make accurate odds. Many morning line favorites, for instance, will go lower than predicted on the board because no linesmaker is willing to go high enough on the longshots. Ever seen a horse made 150-1 on the program? Or 75-1? Or 66-1? Of course not, but more than a few will be that high on the board-and that's the reason why most horses pegged as first or second chalk on the morning line will get bet lower than predicted. Good linesmakers don't work from a template that ignores non-contenders. Every entrant must be assigned a reasonable price-point and thus factored into the math. That in itself makes it EXTREMELY difficult to make an accurate line.

[cj]

I have no doubt it is a tough job. What I was saying is that most really don't have any incentive to do it well. It is what we call in the military an "additional duty". You have your regular job that takes most of your time, then you have those when you have a few spare minutes.

As for why those that do take time usually are not very accurate, I believe it is because they aren't taking into account the tools most use to bet today. You could make a better line than the majority of morning line makers just using the last race Beyer figures.

[Great Communicator]

Interesting answers guys, thanks for the data Dan.

Mountainman, thanks for contributing your perspectives to this thread. I didn't realize there was an active linesmaker posting at this board, didn't mean for this to be a "bitch at the morning linesman" thread ;)

The problem is almost entirely in my psyche. A 15-1 M/L translates to a 6.6% win chance while a 20-1 would be a bit less than 5% win expectation.

This is a fairly small difference percentage-wise, and if odds were expressed this way it probably wouldn't affect me so greatly.

But the difference between 15-1 and 20-1 on a M/L is HUGE to me. I'm not sure how it became such a barrier, but it is, to me anyway. When I see a M/L of 20-1 or higher, it's like the M/L is trying to talk me off this horse. I have difficulty getting past this very UNREASONABLE quirk.

[cnollfan]

But the difference between 15-1 and 20-1 on a M/L is HUGE to me. I'm not sure how it became such a barrier, but it is, to me anyway. When I see a M/L of 20-1 or higher, it's like the M/L is trying to talk me off this horse. I have difficulty getting past this very UNREASONABLE quirk.

At the 2004 Derby draw, Mike Battaglia made Birdstone 50-1 and I think he was the only 50-1 shot in the race. Nick Zito, Birdstone's trainer, was clearly unhappy. So there are some political pressures for the line maker not to insult the longshots, as previously noted in the thread.

That said, most horses 20-1 or more in the morning line won't be intriguing to begin with. You could make a little note in the margins for all the 20-1 + horses you are considering and then see how well they do.

Personally, if I like a horse and nobody else does, I bet even more. I did not learn this the easy way, but I learned it well.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Everyone may already know this, but the M/L has to add up to about 125% (points) to make takeout. That means that 2-1 is 42 points if I am correct. Even money is 60+ points.
Consider if a horse is even money M/L in a 6 horse field with 3 at 20-1. Now consider even money M/L in a 10 horse field with 3 at 20-1 or longer; in a bigger field, more horses would be at odds in between.
In a 10 horse field 20-1 is much shorter than in a 6 horse field, because in a smaller field the contenders would most likely be predicted to have lower odds so a higher % and points IMO.
If there is too much difference either up or down between M/L and tote odds the horse may need another DRF check! Somebody may have miseed something!
FYI- I believe most M/Ls for each race are made in like 15-20 minutes at most.

[JustRalph]

Interesting answers guys, thanks for the data Dan.

Mountainman, thanks for contributing your perspectives to this thread. I didn't realize there was an active linesmaker posting at this board, didn't mean for this to be a "bitch at the morning linesman" thread ;)

The problem is almost entirely in my psyche. A 15-1 M/L translates to a 6.6% win chance while a 20-1 would be a bit less than 5% win expectation.

This is a fairly small difference percentage-wise, and if odds were expressed this way it probably wouldn't affect me so greatly.

But the difference between 15-1 and 20-1 on a M/L is HUGE to me. I'm not sure how it became such a barrier, but it is, to me anyway. When I see a M/L of 20-1 or higher, it's like the M/L is trying to talk me off this horse. I have difficulty getting past this very UNREASONABLE quirk.

you would be surprised who is posting on this board............... :lol:

I think the best M/L I have seen is Ed Burgart at Los Al. But I don't play there much...........

[Hajck Hillstrom]

My mental block begins at 20-1.

Any types of 20-1 and up M/L horses you're not "afraid" to use?In answer to your question, please read my thread "Valid Longshot angle at Bay Meadows." You should always at least seriously consider the 20-1 shot of an uncoupled entry.

[rrbauer]

Thanks for the Tampa stats...

[bettheoverlay]

I find MLs very useful, at least from a data base standpoint. All my spot plays are geared between 6/1 to 15/1 ML. That range consistently is the sweet profit zone. I have my own JCapper UPR - a Bris like Prime Power # - that I tag from 5/1 to 15/1 ML. Here's Feb so far.

ata Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Dirt (All*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2008_Feb\pl_UPR_1.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 660.90 568.00 577.70
Bet -636.00 -636.00 -636.00
Gain 24.90 -68.00 -58.30

Wins 86 137 182
Plays 318 318 318
PCT .2704 .4308 .5723

ROI 1.0392 0.8931 0.9083
Avg Mut 7.68 4.15 3.17


By: Morning Line

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
1.00 2.00 -14.20 48.00 0.7042 8 24 .3333 1.2326
2.00 3.00 -5.40 122.00 0.9557 20 61 .3279 1.2124
3.00 4.00 7.20 164.00 1.0439 26 82 .3171 1.1724
4.00 5.00 -5.50 100.00 0.9450 11 50 .2200 0.8135
5.00 6.00 18.00 52.00 1.3462 8 26 .3077 1.1377
6.00 7.00 15.80 54.00 1.2926 5 27 .1852 0.6848
7.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.00 9.00 3.60 40.00 1.0900 3 20 .1500 0.5547
9.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10.00 11.00 -9.60 20.00 0.5200 2 10 .2000 0.7395
11.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12.00 13.00 8.40 16.00 1.5250 1 8 .1250 0.4622
13.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 16.00 7.20 12.00 1.6000 1 6 .1667 0.6163
16.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18.00 999999.00 -0.60 8.00 0.9250 1 4 .2500 0.9244

The UDMs (spot plays) I use show similiar results. I suppose it means wagering on higher odds is most profitable, but it does allow for betting ahead with some confidence.

[JPinMaryland]

Hey Dan: On your tables, the first column you have "rML" or something. What does that column mean? Is it first choice, second choice, etc.? Or is it 1:1 odds, 2:1 odds, etc.?

Sorry for being do dumb, I think this would add to my understanding. Thanks...

[njcurveball]

Hey Dan: On your tables, the first column you have "rML"

This is the ranking and one of the nice things about HTR is that they are ranked correctly after scratches.

I don't think the program goes any higher than 9 for these rankings.

Jim

[dav4463]

If you are playing exotics, force yourself to use at least one M/L horse at 20-1 or higher somewhere. You may find that you have a knack for picking the best longshot in the field with a chance to hit the board.

[DanG]

Hey Dan: On your tables, the first column you have "rML" or something. What does that column mean? Is it first choice, second choice, etc.? Or is it 1:1 odds, 2:1 odds, etc.?

Sorry for being do dumb, I think this would add to my understanding. Thanks...
Jim’s [NJCurveball] is right JP; it’s the “rank” of the MLO. HTR re-ranks the mlo after scratches etc. and obviously MLO makers like to assign only one animal the role of MLO favorite, where CT for example can have about 632 / 10-1 shots in the same event. :D

BTW: I hope I didn’t leave the impression I use the data in those tables in decision making. I just thought it might stimulate conversation.

Just for fun; Back to the original thread (20-1 and there impact), bearing in mind all the truths we know about the role / limitations and ties of the MLO etc…

All burger; MLO = 20-1.
MLO COUNT WINS W% ROI AVG$ MAX$
20 65534 1482 2% $0.64 $56.88 $269.60

Avg tote odds of 20-1 MLO and Standard deviation of…
MLO TOTE STDEV
20 44.2 23.8

20-1 shots by Trk and only races on the originally scheduled surface. (Last 2-years of data and most small meets eliminated)

TRK COUNT WINS W% ROI AVG$ MAX$
ALB 324 7 2% $0.54 $49.66 $91.00
AP 737 20 3% $0.70 $51.59 $121.40
AQUi 771 16 2% $0.63 $60.36 $111.00
AQU 350 12 3% $1.01 $58.82 $88.00
ATL 49 1 2% $0.60 $59.00 $59.00
BEL 969 15 2% $0.54 $69.75 $131.00
BEU 838 28 3% $0.73 $43.74 $143.60
BM 680 19 3% $1.18 $84.22 $158.40
BMF 83 0 0% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
CBY 397 5 1% $0.35 $54.92 $87.80
CD 921 20 2% $0.75 $69.25 $136.60
CNL 1118 22 2% $0.72 $73.65 $207.80
CRC 1796 18 1% $0.37 $74.51 $180.20
CT 3242 68 2% $0.63 $60.48 $205.20
DED 1185 31 3% $0.70 $53.36 $266.20
DEL 269 2 1% $0.10 $27.30 $45.80
DMR 421 13 3% $1.10 $71.45 $133.80
ELP 340 7 2% $0.54 $52.23 $125.40
EMD 782 12 2% $0.44 $57.18 $95.40
EVD 1899 39 2% $0.57 $55.67 $153.20
FE 1062 26 2% $0.51 $41.31 $103.80
FG 889 12 1% $0.55 $81.80 $233.80
FL 1322 30 2% $0.72 $63.64 $198.50
FNO 118 3 3% $0.37 $29.20 $50.60
FP 409 10 2% $0.73 $59.46 $141.80
FPX 244 5 2% $0.51 $50.00 $82.00
GG 1157 28 2% $0.78 $64.49 $169.60
GLD 1048 23 2% $0.50 $45.49 $132.00
GP 1178 27 2% $0.87 $76.02 $193.40
HAW 901 23 3% $0.78 $61.32 $171.00
HOL 1483 41 3% $0.93 $67.07 $162.60
HOO 1660 45 3% $0.48 $35.20 $152.20
HOU 569 16 3% $0.57 $40.70 $104.80
HST 315 5 2% $0.31 $39.10 $79.20
IND 819 25 3% $0.73 $47.84 $210.00
KD 97 2 2% $0.57 $55.00 $75.00
KEE 534 17 3% $0.92 $58.01 $121.00
LA 704 7 1% $0.20 $39.86 $70.40
LAD 1214 27 2% $0.65 $58.07 $183.20
LRL 2574 63 2% $0.74 $60.56 $153.20
LS 1146 29 3% $0.63 $49.57 $146.40
MED 310 5 2% $0.59 $72.76 $131.60
MNR 3179 75 2% $0.64 $54.26 $182.40
MTH 798 5 1% $0.23 $73.64 $161.20
NP 388 21 5% $0.94 $34.83 $82.10
OP 663 10 2% $0.57 $75.04 $117.20
PEN 1733 35 2% $0.57 $56.28 $210.40
PHA 2332 59 3% $0.70 $54.98 $170.20
PID 121 6 5% $2.22 $89.47 $141.40
PIM 583 21 4% $0.93 $51.47 $119.00
PM 253 7 3% $0.89 $64.57 $167.00
PRM 1144 35 3% $0.58 $37.67 $111.40
RD 1636 44 3% $0.56 $41.85 $124.00
RP 1706 57 3% $0.83 $49.51 $164.40
SA 1387 23 2% $0.46 $55.63 $115.40
SAR 418 14 3% $1.01 $60.04 $97.00
SOL 83 0 0% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
SR 217 5 2% $0.47 $41.04 $90.80
STK 87 0 0% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
SUF 1016 22 2% $0.71 $65.76 $202.00
SUN 1094 19 2% $0.66 $75.95 $171.40
TAM 2228 43 2% $0.65 $67.09 $166.00
TDN 325 4 1% $0.37 $60.70 $89.80
TP 2063 37 2% $0.50 $55.86 $123.60
TUP 1973 31 2% $0.69 $88.12 $269.60
WO 2495 59 2% $0.67 $56.31 $118.60
YAV 180 4 2% $0.25 $22.55 $37.00
ZIA 452 19 4% $0.85 $40.21 $141.00

[bettheoverlay]

Because Mark posts here and does MNR MLs I ran the stats from MNR from Oct to Feb.

ata Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2008_Feb\pl_MNR-Oct_Feb.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 8978.20 9079.50 9251.60
Bet -11838.00 -11838.00 -11838.00
Gain -2859.80 -2758.50 -2586.40

Wins 674 1342 1989
Plays 5919 5919 5919
PCT .1139 .2267 .3360

ROI 0.7584 0.7670 0.7815
Avg Mut 13.32 6.77 4.65


By: Morning Line

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 1.00 -1.20 40.00 0.9700 13 20 .6500 5.7082
1.00 2.00 -51.60 430.00 0.8800 84 215 .3907 3.4311
2.00 3.00 -120.80 820.00 0.8527 119 410 .2902 2.5489
3.00 4.00 -258.40 1234.00 0.7906 127 617 .2058 1.8076
4.00 5.00 -115.60 868.00 0.8668 73 434 .1682 1.4771
5.00 6.00 -58.80 600.00 0.9020 49 300 .1633 1.4344
6.00 7.00 -118.80 1054.00 0.8873 64 527 .1214 1.0665
7.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.00 9.00 -303.00 1330.00 0.7722 55 665 .0827 0.7263
9.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10.00 11.00 -543.20 1196.00 0.5458 27 598 .0452 0.3965
11.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12.00 13.00 -498.80 982.00 0.4921 18 491 .0367 0.3219
13.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15.00 16.00 -218.80 1014.00 0.7842 20 507 .0394 0.3464
16.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18.00 999999.00 -570.80 2270.00 0.7485 25 1135 .0220 0.1934

Those look like excellent M/L stats, especially given the wild track bias that occurs on the MNR track surface.

[Great Communicator]

Lots of great data there guys, I will be digesting Dan's data for awhile.


First impressions.

Delaware and Monmouth with their tiny ROI's for 20-1 M/L horses - does this mean the morning linesman is a genius at isolating lesser quality horses, or are there a lot of crummy, crummy animals hanging around the barns there filling up races?

Northern Cal. fairs - 20-1 M/L horses complete zero for bmf, Sol, Stk - amazing and informative.

Longshots aplenty for the big summer meets - DMR 1.10 and Saratoga 1.01


Overall ROI of 0.64 for all 20-1 M/L's. Yes there is a good reason I face a lot of resistance to betting these types. Of course, this is one area where maiden and non-maiden race division is very important. Since many 20-1+ M/L horses come from the maiden ranks, the 0.64 ROI may be a bit deceiving/skewed.

I have much less resistance towards 20-1 M/L horses for maiden races, especially those with little form, I follow the M/L almost blindly and don't get too upset when they do come in as I would almost never include them in my betting. I have more of a problem with 20-1 M/L in non-maiden races, where there is some previous form to analyze.
Thanks again.

[DanG]

Overall ROI of 0.64 for all 20-1 M/L's. Yes there is a good reason I face a lot of resistance to betting these types. Of course, this is one area where maiden and non-maiden race division is very important. Since many 20-1+ M/L horses come from the maiden ranks, the 0.64 ROI may be a bit deceiving/skewed.

I have much less resistance towards 20-1 M/L horses for maiden races, especially those with little form, I follow the M/L almost blindly and don't get too upset when they do come in as I would almost never include them in my betting. I have more of a problem with 20-1 M/L in non-maiden races, where there is some previous form to analyze.

On that train of thought GC…

Same criteria as above (20-1 only MLO etc…) sorted by class:

CLASS COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
CLM 28210 673 2% 6% $0.65 $54.90 $269.60
GRD 675 20 3% 7% $0.87 $58.67 $136.20
MCL 17434 387 2% 6% $0.68 $61.51 $266.20
MSW 8789 172 2% 5% $0.57 $58.53 $193.40
NW1 3883 80 2% 6% $0.54 $52.17 $145.80
NW2 929 22 2% 6% $0.65 $55.20 $171.40
NW3 116 4 3% 9% $0.99 $57.65 $132.00
OCL 1913 43 2% 6% $0.59 $52.17 $135.80
STK 2210 39 2% 6% $0.51 $57.75 $210.00
STR 1375 42 3% 7% $0.80 $52.08 $149.20

This won’t really be in context if you don’t use HTR, but I thought it was interesting that when sorted by the range of the “VI” (volatility index) it shows a strong correlation of where the bombs impact.

VI explanation, if anyone’s interested… (Pg-8, 9 although it has evolved since this article in 2002)

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-AUG2002.pdf

I used a range to cut down on the data points. The VI- range of 1 (>37) favors shorter prices on average and of course all the way to range 4 (<26) where chaos is present.

VI COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
1 3906 74 2% 6% $0.42 $44.13 $158.40
2 14340 269 2% 5% $0.50 $53.06 $193.40
3 25655 572 2% 6% $0.64 $57.00 $210.00
4 21633 567 3% 6% $0.79 $60.24 $269.60