Any one hit Aqueduct race 4 the 1 horse was 4:1 morning line paid 34.20!

[kyle2227]

I was just wondering if any one hit Aqueduct race 4. The one horse had a 4:1 morning line and paid 34.20 to win! I only had $2 across the board on him but I was wondering if any one else hit him? I can't believe he want off those high of odds.

[Zaf]

Didn't have him, but surprised about the price as well. Contessa ran this one back fast and dropped him. Surprised it didn't attract more attention. Nice hit.

Z

[furlong21]

I hit the pick three races 4-6 using him. Odds on him were truly a gift. Played the 9 W/P over the 1 b/c the wheel back in four days scared me off.

[jma]

I had the Pick 4, though my key was the McLaughlin horse in the 2nd. I assume people though the scratched part of the entry was the better half and abandoned the horse who was left; that was a mistake. I didn't see anything special about him either but was surprised by 16-1.

[the little guy]

I had the Pick 4, though my key was the McLaughlin horse in the 2nd. I assume people though the scratched part of the entry was the better half and abandoned the horse who was left; that was a mistake. I didn't see anything special about him either but was surprised by 16-1.


The scratched half of the entry had finished last in both of its starts and lost by a combined 36 3/4 lengths while running in Maiden 25K claiming races.

[onefast99]

After the 2 was whacked coming out of the gate going 4 wide wont get it done on this oval. This was a race that anyone could of won. As far as the morning line goes it should of been 15-1 minimum the 1a had nothing to do with the morning line even though some track handicappers seem to always make the entry a lot lower then they should be. Great ride by Maragh, I plan on using him in three weeks. Good bettors race.

[Dahoss9698]

For those that had the winner, what exactly did you like about him? His impressive showing 4 days ago?

[cratman]

He had the second best pace figure on CJ's numbers and was a second time starter. Missed the exacta.

[garyoz]

For those that had the winner, what exactly did you like about him? His impressive showing 4 days ago?


Betting action last out.

[the little guy]

Betting action last out.


The horse was 44:1 when beaten 15 3/4 lengths four days ago.

[Dahoss9698]

Betting action last out.

I assume you are kidding, but you kind of make my point. This horse should have been 100-1 and probably would have been if not trained by Contessa. I understand using the horse in a multirace play, as I understand the importance of getting through legs. And trust me, Contessa and maybe Dutrow are the only trainers I will just throw their horses in, because I don't want to get beat by them. But even so, this horse was nearly impossible to like at face value.

[garyoz]

Geez, a little humor....should of emoted I guess. Actually had him (both in Rider's Up and the Real World) because of the obvious--short layoff, trainer, and why run two when one will do. Not good reasons perhaps--

[jma]

The scratched half of the entry had finished last in both of its starts and lost by a combined 36 3/4 lengths while running in Maiden 25K claiming races.

Sorry---that will teach me to post while trying to watch races at several tracks. I couldn't believe the morning line for the entry was as low as 4-1, but I threw the horse in the Pick 4 anyway because I figured there might be a reason Contessa was running a second-time starter back so quickly. I got lucky, and it turned out to be the only decent price in the Pick 4.

[njcurveball]

The place horse had the #1 pedigree rating in the race. The winner had the #3 pedigree rating. A box of the top 3 Ped ratings in HTR returned a very nice $830.


If you want to include the top 5 for your trifecta ( $7,396) the 3rd place finished had the #5 Ped rating. These are certainly not "run to the bank withdraw all your money and bet them" numbers. But in a Maiden race where you cannot get a read on form, they do help. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[Robert Fischer]

The place horse had the #1 pedigree rating in the race. The winner had the #3 pedigree rating. A box of the top 3 Ped ratings in HTR returned a very nice $830.

Jim

what is your ROI for boxing the top 3 pedigree ratings for every race at Aqueduct's winter meet?

[Tom Barrister]

I had the second largest bet I've made this year on the horse.

[Dahoss9698]

I always find it amazing AFTER the fact how many people seem to have impossible horses.

[jonnielu]

I assume you are kidding, but you kind of make my point. This horse should have been 100-1 and probably would have been if not trained by Contessa. I understand using the horse in a multirace play, as I understand the importance of getting through legs. And trust me, Contessa and maybe Dutrow are the only trainers I will just throw their horses in, because I don't want to get beat by them. But even so, this horse was nearly impossible to like at face value.

For those that are looking at ability instead of form, or at least as an adjunct to form, this is the appearance from Ability-X - Stickouts for AQU 2/10/08

4th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML

413 7 97 5
357 5 95 20
334 9 92 8
367 3 88 8
312 8 88 12
321 1 88 4
242 10 85 3
258 4 80 12
142 6 0 10
136 2 0 6
458 2B 0 6


The orange highlight means that #1 is sticking out a little bit. The favorite doesn't stick out at all in the #10 hole, and #5 might brush your sleeve lightly as you pass by since early speed holds up so well at AQU.

jdl

[Robert Fischer]

This horse should have been 100-1 and probably would have been if not trained by Contessa. I understand using the horse in a multirace play, as I understand the importance of getting through legs. And trust me, Contessa and maybe Dutrow are the only trainers I will just throw their horses in, because I don't want to get beat by them. But even so, this horse was nearly impossible to like at face value.

I always find it amazing AFTER the fact how many people seem to have impossible horses.

This is the same dahoss with the smart-alec mouth in the Derby trail forum.:ThmbDown:
Funny to see you actually talking about handicapping!

You do not understand the game.

A horse who made its debut in a statebred special weight, 4 days prior to dropping in a very weak statebred claimer. Did you totally miss the horse showing signs of life at the end of the special weight race, although it was not abused?

You can only draw conclusions from what you know. We don't know that the 1 is the winner, but we know enough not to give up on the horse!

Never toss an unknown from a weak race.

In horseracing what you don't know, does hurt you.

These are absolutes. When you have an unknown you pass or include. When a race is incredibly weak you tend to include.

WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTION/ADDITION;
If the race is low quality, and there are unknowns, you are supposed to look for a Bull Market. That means when you have the PUBLIC wagering on any old favorite like the 2Entry for the sake of action. It can be another unknown like the 2Entry or the default program weak favorite, such as the 10. When you see that type of market you can also justify a small play opposing the BULL.

which is what this post is all about. :lol:

[Dahoss9698]

This is the same dahoss with the smart-alec mouth in the Derby trail forum.:ThmbDown:
Funny to see you actually talking about handicapping!

You do not understand the game.

A horse who made its debut in a statebred special weight, 4 days prior to dropping in a very weak statebred claimer. Did you totally miss the horse showing signs of life at the end of the special weight race, although it was not abused?

You can only draw conclusions from what you know. We don't know that the 1 is the winner, but we know enough not to give up on the horse!

Never toss an unknown from a weak race.

In horseracing what you don't know, does hurt you.

These are absolutes. When you have an unknown you pass or include. When a race is incredibly weak you tend to include.

WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTION/ADDITION;
If the race is low quality, and there are unknowns, you are supposed to look for a Bull Market. That means when you have the PUBLIC wagering on any old favorite like the 2Entry for the sake of action. It can be another unknown like the 2Entry or the default program weak favorite, such as the 10. When you see that type of market you can also justify a small play opposing the BULL.

which is what this post is all about. :lol:

Boy are you sharp Bobby. You managed to figure out I also post at Derby trail. How'd you do it, was it the exact same name that gave it away? I have a fine understanding of the game. My point in this thread is that sometimes in this game we get lucky by taking a shot with a horse that does not figure, based on connections. I hit a pic 4 at Aqueduct a few weeks ago for this reason. I tossed in a Dutrow horse in the finale, simply because I figured if I was able to get live to the final leg, I was not going to let him beat me. The horse looked like garbage, yet won for fun and I laughed all of the way to the bank. When asked what I liked about the horse, I said I wasn't going to let Dutrow beat me. That is all I am trying to say. The horse was impossible and I'm glad some players were able to catch, but at least be honest about it.

Don't worry about me. You seem like an okay enough guy, but frankly, you have no clue what you are talking about. Anyone with a clue realizes it and it's why you had a meltdown last week. Do yourself a favor, to avoid any further meltdown why not just put me on ignore, like you said you did. I do miss the blog though and all of the laughs it provided.

[Robert Fischer]

a) Treat others with respect


b) Stick to the crowd who values insults, and sarcastic comments above handicapping and wagering.


It is safe to say that the majority at PA care more about Handicapping than some joker spewing insults. Don't bring that crap over here.

[Robert Fischer]

The horse was impossible and I'm glad some players were able to catch, but at least be honest about it.

Also, if you think that the horse was impossible, I am willing to be the bigger man and explain why the horse had to be used if you played the race.
Up to you.

[Dahoss9698]

a) Treat others with respect


b) Stick to the crowd who values insults, and sarcastic comments above handicapping and wagering.


It is safe to say that the majority at PA care more about Handicapping than some joker spewing insults. Don't bring that crap over here.

Again, do yourself a favor and don't worry about what I do. It's real easy, just put me on ignore. I didn't realize that you spoke for the owner of this site though. Good to know.

I do appreciate your offer, but after your performances lately, the only thing I need you to explain to me is how you have managed to avoid a room with padded walls all of this time.

[jotb]

Hello all:

There is not 1 person in this post that said anything about this horses workouts. Amazing! The horse worked 1-6, 1-10, 1-17 and then missed the rest of Jan. He threw a 3f bullet work the day before his debut. Did Contessa really work this horse the day before his debut or was his debut the tightner? Then Contessa runs him 4 days back. Are we to believe Contessa breezed on 2-5 then ran on 2-6 6F and then run 6F 4 days later? One last thing, he ran on 2-10 to get the win but entered on 2-8 just 2 days after his debut.

Joe

[Robert Fischer]

Hello all:

There is not 1 person in this post that said anything about this horses workouts. Amazing! The horse worked 1-6, 1-10, 1-17 and then missed the rest of Jan. He threw a 3f bullet work the day before his debut. Did Contessa really work this horse the day before his debut or was his debut the tightner? Then Contessa runs him 4 days back. Are we to believe Contessa breezed on 2-5 then ran on 2-6 6F and then run 6F 4 days later? One last thing, he ran on 2-10 to get the win but entered on 2-8 just 2 days after his debut.

Joe

Good stuff.

I never want to say a trainer had the intent of using a race as a work... but it does happen. The horse looked like it got pinched a little at the start in the debut. Never really got to settle and passed a couple tired horses in the stretch. According to the chart he closed some ground in the lane as well, but that alone doesn't mean a whole ton when the horse never threatened. Never really got to use the horse in the debut.

They were probably convinced that the horse could run, partially based on his performance in the mornings and knew he could compete if they got him right back in a state maiden claimer.

[JustRalph]

When you have an unknown you pass or include.

interesting quote.

Works for women too...........