How impressive was Pyro?

[Jayhawk Fan]

Hey everyone~
I was just wanting to get a gage on what everyone thought of Pyro's performance in the Risen Star. I'm new to posting on here, so cut me a little slack, but I wasn't blown away with his effort. The best part was how weaved his way through traffic, pretty athletic, but remember most of the best 3yo are in Florida, so he'll never see most of those horses ever again. Also, how many times have you watched races from the Fair Grounds & the winner is the horse who comes widest & makes his run the latest? Especially with that stretch that's about 6 furlongs. =) Granted, he got the last quarter in 22.6, but Indian Blessing ran a second faster. She's no slouch, but she was begging for the wire at the end of her race. I think there's room for improvement, but I'm not ready to crown him the Triple Crown winner. What's everyone thoughts?

[njcurveball]

I was amazed they got so many horses to run against him. Looks like the 2nd coming of Curlin to me. :ThmbUp:

[DeanT]

I think he ran well enough to get him nicely overbet in the Futures pool :)

[russowen77]

I was amazed they got so many horses to run against him. Looks like the 2nd coming of Curlin to me. :ThmbUp:

SA has been running him in tandem the last two with Curlin. He has been within a nose the last two. Whatever, he looks like a serious player in the Classics to me. :)

BTW, One of the longshots I bet 2 bucks on did me proud. The six had some righteous speed and would have been a player at a mile.

[Norm]

Seems that Pyro forgot to read the chapter in pace theory that says when the pace is slow, come-from-behind horses can't come from behind. He just went and did it anyway. His final quarter, slow pace or not, was impressive. I don't really have a feeling for how good the competition was, although he beat his stablemate who is regarded by some pundits as a serious Derby contender. We'll have to wait and see what he does at 9f on a track with a shorter home stretch before we make him the Derby favorite, although he probably earned a stall in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

[RXB]

What I got out of it is that Pyro could be an outstanding 8f - 10f grass horse.

[JustRalph]

What I got out of it is that Pyro could be an outstanding 8f - 10f grass horse.


So was Barbaro...............

[DanG]

He answered several important questions all in one swoop. (But not all however)



He trained like a machine with perfectly spaced works.
He moved forward off his 2yo form.
He finished with graded power and did it into a slow pace.
He took serious dirt in his face against a large field.
Without checking the replay; I believe he did it without feeling the whip.
He galloped out strong and came back well.
He didn’t grind out his close / he had push button acceleration.
He has the much underrated quality of…he likes the game. (That’s his 5th race and 5th different track and he picked up the bit every time…good sign.)
Sure he will have issues not contesting the first ½ mile. Who really wants to negotiate 19 animals in the Derby if they don’t have to? Deep closers are almost always a great bet against in American racing at a short price. If you owned and / or trained him though; you should be over the moon with excitement. Solid effort from a well bred horse. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

With the pace yesterday, it is pretty tough to judge the race from a clock standpoint. About the only thing you can say is Pyro is much, much better than the field he faced and probably didn't regress from last year.

The rest of the field, no thanks.

Some Beyers from yesterday...102 for Grasshopper, 99 for Indian Blessing...these make me think Pyro should get 91, though I haven't seen that one.

[john del riccio]

He answered several important questions all in one swoop. (But not all however)


He trained like a machine with perfectly spaced works.
He moved forward off his 2yo form.
He finished with graded power and did it into a slow pace.
He took serious dirt in his face against a large field.
Without checking the replay; I believe he did it without feeling the whip.
He galloped out strong and came back well.
He didn’t grind out his close / he had push button acceleration.
He has the much underrated quality of…he likes the game. (That’s his 5th race and 5th different track and he picked up the bit every time…good sign.)
Sure he will have issues not contesting the first ½ mile. Who really wants to negotiate 19 animals in the Derby if they don’t have to? Deep closers are almost always a great bet against in American racing at a short price. If you owned and / or trained him though; you should be over the moon with excitement. Solid effort from a well bred horse. :ThmbUp:

Dan,

He had a real strange trip. Bridgemohan had to stop him 3 times. I think when he started patting him on the neck 40 yards from the wire pretty much says it all. Ask yourself how many dirt rafes you have seen with fractions like that where a horse past almost th entire field in the last 1/4 mile ?



John

PS That NY-bred ran very well (2nd) considering his post and wide trip.

[rokitman]

That was a horseshit ride by Bridgmohan that will get him beat if he repeats it. Gomez on that horse would be a super-duper combo.

[DanG]

Dan,

He had a real strange trip. Bridgemohan had to stop him 3 times. I think when he started patting him on the neck 40 yards from the wire pretty much says it all. Ask yourself how many dirt rafes you have seen with fractions like that where a horse past almost th entire field in the last 1/4 mile ?

John

PS That NY-bred ran very well (2nd) considering his post and wide trip.
Good points John;

Side note; what a great illustration of how deceiving one-dimensional final times can be.

As CJ pointed out…



Indian Blessing: 99
Pyro: 91 (Approximately)
Does anyone seriously doubt that Pyro would hand Indian Blessing her head in any 2-turn race?

[cj]

Seems that Pyro forgot to read the chapter in pace theory that says when the pace is slow, come-from-behind horses can't come from behind.

That all depends on the quality of the pace horses, doesn't it? In this case, the top 2 early were 112 to 1 and a badly underlaid horse that was 10 to 1 and had never run on dirt.

Guess which horse I had rated fasted to the pace call coming in?

[john del riccio]

Good points John;

Side note; what a great illustration of how deceiving one-dimensional final times can be.

As CJ pointed out…


Indian Blessing: 99
Pyro: 91 (Approximately)
Does anyone seriously doubt that Pyro would hand Indian Blessing her head in any 2-turn race?

Dan,

Here are my figs for those two races. Class, Pace, Variant.

SILVERBULLETDAY 64 76 77
RISEN STAR 67 71 78

Indian Blessing is a very nice horse but she may be better around 1 turn. As for Pyro, its only February but that was eye catching just the same.

John

[cj]

Assuming that is Class, Pace, Speed Figure (not variant), I'm not sure how you come up with the Silverbulletday being slower to the pace call than the finish. We must use vastly different methods or par times or something.

[rokitman]

Dan,

Here are my figs for those two races. Class, Pace, Variant.

SILVERBULLETDAY 64 76 77
RISEN STAR 67 71 78

Indian Blessing is a very nice horse but she may be better around 1 turn. As for Pyro, its only February but that was eye catching just the same.

John
What's the top of your scale?

[john del riccio]

Assuming that is Class, Pace, Speed Figure (not variant), I'm not sure how you come up with the Silverbulletday being slower to the pace call than the finish. We must use vastly different methods or par times or something.

I'd love to talk shop with you aboutr this stuff. I don't use PAR times.

John

[john del riccio]

What's the top of your scale?

The best figure I have given out since 1998 was an 87, Victory Gallop winning the Foster and Ghostzapper winning the BC.

John

[cj]

I'd love to talk shop with you aboutr this stuff. I don't use PAR times.

John

Anytime, in public or private, no problem.

Feel free to answer this in private if you like. How do you differentiate between the pace call at different tracks at 1 1/16m, for example FG and TDN. I have that given the same final time, the average winner will run nearly a full second faster at Tdn. At sister track LaD, the average winner will run 2/5ths faster to the pace call than FG. At CD, they run 1/5th slower.

What I'm getting at is that the FG is one of the slower tracks to the pace call at 1 1/16 miles. Do you factor that in?

[john del riccio]

Anytime, in public or private, no problem.

Feel free to answer this in private if you like. How do you differentiate between the pace call at different tracks at 1 1/16m, for example FG and TDN. I have that given the same final time, the average winner will run nearly a full second faster at Tdn. At sister track LaD, the average winner will run 2/5ths faster to the pace call than FG. At CD, they run 1/5th slower.

What I'm getting at is that the FG is one of the slower tracks to the pace call at 1 1/16 miles. Do you factor that in?

I dont do figs for TDN so I can't comment on that track. Each track has different runnups at different distances that typically account for alot of these variations. I group tracks into 4 levels and normalize them so the track to track "variantions" are smoothed out.

Why did you ffel as though the pace figure of IB should have been higher ?

John

[cj]

I do understand why the differences between tracks. I use different charts to make figures for every track, from the bottom of the barrel to the top.

At 1 1/16 miles at the FG, I have over 300 races (no maiden races counted) making the pace "par". Using that, I get a pace figure of 114 and a speed figure of 101, all on the Beyer scale. Now, I do adjust the pace with a seperate variant, but in this case, it is only one point different than the speed variant. So, I came up with the track being 2 points fast overall, and 1 point fast to the pace call. So, I get figures of 112 - 99, which just happens to be very much in line with all her other dirt races.

For the Risen Star, using the same chart, I get race figures of 70 and 93. Using the variants, it will be 69 - 91. Pyro, by the way, will have a pace figure of only 57! To still be able to get a 91 speed figure is very impressive.

I used to post all the Derby prep race figures on my site. I guess I could do it again if there is interest. I've just gotten lazy!

[kenwoodallpromos]

As was not impressed enough by his (or anyone's) last-race-win to consider him to be 5-1 in KY Derby (by Yum! Foods) futures betting!

[Nets]

I used to post all the Derby prep race figures on my site. I guess I could do it again if there is interest. I've just gotten lazy!

There's always interest in info from someone who knows what they are talking about. :)

Gary

[rokitman]

Anytime, in public or private, no problem.

Feel free to answer this in private if you like. How do you differentiate between the pace call at different tracks at 1 1/16m, for example FG and TDN. I have that given the same final time, the average winner will run nearly a full second faster at Tdn. At sister track LaD, the average winner will run 2/5ths faster to the pace call than FG. At CD, they run 1/5th slower.

What I'm getting at is that the FG is one of the slower tracks to the pace call at 1 1/16 miles. Do you factor that in?
I have thought for some time now that something is wrong with the timers at FG. It seems well beyond the usual run-up issue. I'd like to see the comparison you just did for the turf course. That is even more extreme. The early fractions are too consistently extra slow, even for turf. They have that extra long stretch there- 1346 feet. 356 feet longer than the most common stretch length for mile tracks-990 feet. Wonder if that has something to do with it. The only other mile track that I am aware of the has about the same stretch is Hawthorne at 1320 feet. I'm no longer a TSN suscriber but when I was I saw there was clearly something amiss in the E1 fig for 6F at HAW. Horses commonly got an E1 well higher than they would at other tracks, and well higher than par for the class.

The extra long stretch puts the gate closer to the first turn than usual. There is more 1st call leaders in 6F sprints from post position 1 at HAW and FG than the standard PP1 bias. Applies to PP2 also, to a lesser degree. No extra bias at 6.5F because the extra 1/2F pushes the gate away from the turn. This I know from development of a program for personal use that myself and another gent created for sprints only, so I don't know what is happening in routes.

[cj]

As for the Fair Grounds, it doesn't really matter why the fractions are slow, as long as they are consistently slow. That does seem to be the case there.

[Robert Fischer]

It was impressive, but he just did enough to win the race. He had so much horse that he could have been asked a lot sooner (say brigmohan had brought him to even terms on the backstretch, and then pulled away into the turn...).
We didn't get to see him strain for that type of performance, he did it within himself and ran with the group for most of the race.

He showed he has a strong late kick. He isn't very tall (at least doesn't appear to be), but is very well put together. He appears to be able to get 10 furlongs at this point.
Wouldn't surprise me if he finishes anywhere in the top 10 in the derby.
Lets see how everything develops.

[Norm]

That all depends on the quality of the pace horses, doesn't it? In this case, the top 2 early were 112 to 1 and a badly underlaid horse that was 10 to 1 and had never run on dirt. Guess which horse I had rated fasted to the pace call coming in?

I just watched the replay again. I think what impresses the most is that a field of "Derby contenders" ran 6f in 1:14 3/5 and, with the exception of Pyro, had nothing left at the end. I must quickly confess to having no expertise at Fair Grounds so maybe there were extenuating circumstances, but, except for the winner, there was no horse there who could have won an optional claimer at AQU based on that performance.

[classhandicapper]

I used to post all the Derby prep race figures on my site. I guess I could do it again if there is interest. I've just gotten lazy!

I think it might be a good idea (at least for your customers) because there is futures betting that some people might be interested in. But you already do enough and I don't want to screw up the priorities.

[David-LV]

Although this was a very impressive performance the true test will come when Pyro faces the horse that beat him easily all three times that they faced each other last year, War Pass.

It appears that the undefeated War Pass is training like a monster getting ready for his 3 year old debut.

This could become an interesting rivalry that could only be good for racing.

We sure could use some good news! :)

_______
David

[toetoe]

As stated, the competition were (was ?) found wanting. That said, he only ran 3/16 mile. If he is able to make that move in the Kentucky Fried Derby from, say, the 3/8 to the 3/16, he may be the winner.

My most impressive race was Daytona's in the turf race. Unless FG suddenly became a putting green yesterday, that effort was monstrous. :ThmbUp: This guy is only four years old. (:Rubbing hands.)

As with all races, context is key. How much can we penalize the winner for impressively beating slow and/or dull opponents ? :confused:

[classhandicapper]

I thought the Risen Star was a pretty high quality prep race for this time of year. IMO, it was better than the average Grade 3 race for 3YOs in February.

Going into the race, the winner was competitive in elite Grade 1 races for 2YOs. Z Fortune was an undefeated Grade 3 winner. Visionaire was a rapidly improving impressive ALW winner from a top barn. Blackberry Road had already been competitive at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level, but was well beaten here. Several other decent ALW and minor stakes horses that normally fit into a race like this at this time of year got destroyed.

I'd be willing to bet that a few horses out of this field turn out to be quality 3YOs - certainly better than the final time figures they earned for this slow paced race (assuming no injuries etc...)

[john del riccio]

I thought the Risen Star was a pretty high quality prep race for this time of year. IMO, it was better than the average Grade 3 race for 3YOs in February.

Going into the race, the winner was competitive in elite Grade 1 races for 2YOs. Z Fortune was an undefeated Grade 3 winner. Visionaire was a rapidly improving impressive ALW winner from a top barn. Blackberry Road had already been competitive at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level, but was well beaten here. Several other decent ALW and minor stakes horses that normally fit into a race like this at this time of year got destroyed.

I'd be willing to bet that a few horses out of this field turn out to be quality 3YOs - certainly better than the final time figures they earned for this slow paced race (assuming no injuries etc...)

Blackberry Road gets 2nd if he has any room at all to run.

John

[classhandicapper]

Blackberry Road gets 2nd if he has any room at all to run.

John

Thanks. I'll have to watch the replay for myself. Jumbling around the top few doesn't change my conclusion about the quality of the field. This was a very good Grade 3 prep. Some decent horses got crushed and there were plenty of good ones near the top.

[cj]

I'd be willing to bet that a few horses out of this field turn out to be quality 3YOs - certainly better than the final time figures they earned for this slow paced race (assuming no injuries etc...)

They will have to step it up...a lot. Most of them, outside the winner, stunk yesterday.

[onefast99]

Similar to Street Sense running down the lane in the Derby last year. Big striding horse can do a lot of damage this year in the pre-lims.

[Kelso]

That was a horseshit ride by Bridgmohan that will get him beat if he repeats it. Gomez on that horse would be a super-duper combo.

BloodHorse reported that Bridgmohan was strictly following Asmussen's orders.

[rokitman]

BloodHorse reported that Bridgmohan was strictly following Asmussen's orders.
I can't imagine what orders lead to that ride. Asmussen said to get him stopped at least twice? Keep him in last, and blocked, well into the stretch? Jerk the horse severely to your right, mid-stretch, and closely cross another horse's path? I don't think so, K. I'll believe that when I hear it directly from Asmussen.

[Robert Fischer]

jockeys seldom ride to the horse's ability anymore.

Secretariat would win the belmont by 5 or 6 lengths against the same company if we had modern jockeys going. A horse like pyro in the risen star or curlin in the belmont... these jockeys are content to to ride with the pack and then make a move with just enough time left. They don't want to test a horse and see how good he really is.

[Kelso]

I can't imagine what orders lead to that ride. Asmussen said to get him stopped at least twice? Keep him in last, and blocked, well into the stretch? Jerk the horse severely to your right, mid-stretch, and closely cross another horse's path? I don't think so, K. I'll believe that when I hear it directly from Asmussen.

Here's the article, anyway:

Pyro Smokes Field in Risen Star| bloodhorse.com (http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=43583)


From the article:
"Bridgmohan got some schooling in on the Steve Asmussen-trained runner, keeping him under tight wraps at the back of the 11-horse field as the pace was set by Thomas Daughn trainee Rich Young Ruler.

"... 'I did what I was told to do,' Bridgmohan said. 'It worked out very well. I was just looking for some daylight, and when I got it, he gave it to me. I never hit him; I just tapped him on his shoulder.'

"... Earlier in the week, Asmussen expressed concern that the Pulpit colt’s latest work, a five furlong bullet done in 1:00.80 Feb. 5, had been too fast."

[juanepstein]

visionaire is the one to watch for team valor.

lezcano will be dropped as jockey real soon.

[onefast99]

visionaire is the one to watch for team valor.

lezcano will be dropped as jockey real soon.
Really? And replaced with who, Bravo! Please post it when it happens.

[juanepstein]

thats not my decision. but has lezcano ever won the derby? would you want lezcano on your derby horse? bravo is just as bad.

and why would i post lezcano will be dropped soon after he is dropped?

[Hajck Hillstrom]

He took serious dirt in his face against a large field.
Without checking the replay; I believe he did it without feeling the whip.
It definitely was a hand ride.

[cj]

If Stewart Elliot won the Derby, I imagine pretty much any rider can.

[classhandicapper]

They will have to step it up...a lot. Most of them, outside the winner, stunk yesterday.

I'm sure the speed and performance figures stunk, but I think that was probably a function of the pace because it was a high quality Grade 3 field. It looked more like a Grade 2 or even weak Grade 1 race for 3YOs at this time of year.

The fractions were:

24.2; 25; 25.1; 24; and 6

They came home faster than they ran early and several closed in sub 12 second 1/8s through the last portion. That's very rare on dirt and really flying late - even when the pace is slow. I think it's likely that some of these horses would have run faster final times if they had prompted a more average pace. Plus, in reasonably deep large fields like this, some decent horses almost always get buried.

We'll see how they come out of it, but I'm expecting several of these to improve on their figures for this race right away because the quality was there even if the figures weren't.

[Tee]

I have a question for everyone regarding The Risen Star Stakes.

If the trips of Pyro & Blackberry Road were reversed - who wins the race?

Z Fortune?
Blackberry Road?
Pyro?

How many lengths did Blackberry Road lose if any in your opinion?

[cj]

I'm sure the speed and performance figures stunk, but I think that was probably a function of the pace because it was a high quality Grade 3 field. It looked more like a Grade 2 or even weak Grade 1 race for 3YOs at this time of year.

The fractions were:

24.2; 25; 25.1; 24; and 6

They came home faster than they ran early and several closed in sub 12 second 1/8s through the last portion. That's very rare on dirt and really flying late - even when the pace is slow. I think it's likely that some of these horses would have run faster final times if they had prompted a more average pace. Plus, in reasonably deep large fields like this, some decent horses almost always get buried.

We'll see how they come out of it, but I'm expecting several of these to improve on their figures for this race right away because the quality was there even if the figures weren't.

The pace wasn't slow...it was insanely slow. That scenario usually leads to a bunched up finish. In this race however, one horse with a brutal trip destroyed the rest coming from last. It isn't like he won by a nose. He is so far superior to the rest it is hard to imagine the others being much.

[cj]

I have a question for everyone regarding The Risen Star Stakes.

If the trips of Pyro & Blackberry Road were reversed - who wins the race?

Z Fortune?
Blackberry Road?
Pyro?

How many lengths did Blackberry Road lose if any in your opinion?

I can't envision any scenario short of making Pyro navigate a few jumps where he doesn't wind up in the winner's circle.

[Tee]

<object width="425" height="373"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3-Hp-hwLb00&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01&border=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3-Hp-hwLb00&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="373"></embed></object> (http://youtube.com/watch?v=3-Hp-hwLb00)

[juanepstein]

im still impressed with visionaires run. love how he dug back in at the rail and kept coming at them. even after knucklehead lezcano dropped him back a little too far back on the second turn.

[cj]

im still impressed with visionaires run. love how he dug back in at the rail and kept coming at them.

You mean while Pyro was being congratulated by the rider while cantering home?

Of course he was still running at the end. He didn't run at all for 6f. It was basically a 1/4 mile race where Pyro spotted the field several lengths and still destroyed them. If a QH wins a race by that much it is considered a massacre.

[Tee]

Thanks Craig!!

Now for future reference tell this computer illiterate how you did dat!! :)

[cj]

Thanks Craig!!

Now for future reference tell this computer illiterate how you did dat!! :)

I would, but then I'd have to kill you.

Just kidding...first, at the prompt, just give it a title...i typed Pyro.

Then, just paste the "embed" code from Youtube inside the YT tags.

[Tee]

Gracias Amigo!!

I would, but then I'd have to kill you.

Just kidding...first, at the prompt, just give it a title...i typed Pyro.

Then, just paste the "embed" code from Youtube inside the YT tags.

[JustRalph]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-Hp-hwLb00

This is the only part I put in after naming the video I put in everything after the equal sign and it seems to work

[cj]

That is way too easy Ralph. You know us IT guys have to make things sound tougher than they are!

[JPinMaryland]

jockeys seldom ride to the horse's ability anymore.

Secretariat would win the belmont by 5 or 6 lengths against the same company if we had modern jockeys going. A horse like pyro in the risen star or curlin in the belmont... these jockeys are content to to ride with the pack and then make a move with just enough time left. They don't want to test a horse and see how good he really is.

Fortunately, Stuart Elliot didnt hold Smarty Jones back in the Belmont.

And the rest is history

[Robert Fischer]

Fortunately, Stuart Elliot didnt hold Smarty Jones back in the Belmont.

And the rest is history

Yea, but he didn't have any horse.

[Tee]

90 BSF for Pyro

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

Anyway you look at it Pyro was very very impressive!!!

[Burls]

That was a horseshit ride by Bridgmohan that will get him beat if he repeats it. Gomez on that horse would be a super-duper combo.

I agree with you fully on that.
It looked to me like Pyro didn't really show anything until the final burst at the end.
Then it was like a Ferrari against a bunch of Volkswagens.

But Bridgmohan just about screwed it up coming around the final turn.
He was lucky a hole even opened up or he might have ended up penned in at the back.
Then he'd have had some explaining to do.
As it was, he probably still did. :lol:

[Burls]

BloodHorse reported that Bridgmohan was strictly following Asmussen's orders.
I could see SA telling him not to let Pyro run too hard in this prep race.
But penning him in at the end like that?
I can't see a trainer instructing a jockey to let the horse get penned in at the end so that the race is in jeopardy.
That could have easily went sour on Bridgmohan.
Drop him, I say.
Gomez, Bejarano, or even Michael Baze would be better.

[Bruddah]

I just watched the replay again. I think what impresses the most is that a field of "Derby contenders" ran 6f in 1:14 3/5 and, with the exception of Pyro, had nothing left at the end. I must quickly confess to having no expertise at Fair Grounds so maybe there were extenuating circumstances, but, except for the winner, there was no horse there who could have won an optional claimer at AQU based on that performance.

There my friend is a good summary of the race in my humble opinion. He outran bupcus. The race had a bunch of wannabe's, including Pyro, again JMHO. :ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

I'm sure the speed and performance figures stunk,


Class, No they didn't stink. On my scale, I gave th erace the equivalent of
a Beyer between 98-100.

John

PS We had this same discussion after the Blue Grass last year so it seems like is De-Ja-Vu all over again (sorry Yogie)

[jma]

I could see SA telling him not to let Pyro run too hard in this prep race.
But penning him in at the end like that?
I can't see a trainer instructing a jockey to let the horse get penned in at the end so that the race is in jeopardy.
That could have easily went sour on Bridgmohan.
Drop him, I say.
Gomez, Bejarano, or even Michael Baze would be better.

I'm not a huge Bridgmohan fan, but obviously Asmussen is thinking long-term about the Derby. He probably didn't care if Pyro won this race or not. Maybe the instructions were "keep him in traffic, give him a feel for what a 20-horse Derby field will be like, don't ask him until the top of the stretch". I honestly don't think it's the worst idea---he has bigger goals in mind than this prep race. In the Derby you'll have to race in traffic, so now he gets a feel for it, even if he gets trapped inside for a bit. And he won easily anyway, so the plan went perfectly.

[JPinMaryland]

So after all this talk how fast did Piro run his final quarter in? 23 flat? Just taking a guess looking at the chart..

[jognlope]

Just watching Mike Veitch on OTB channel (they repeat Sat show today), he gave Pyro an 8.65 pedigree rating, contrasted to War Pass's 10.5 or something. Vision Court was somewhere in between. He compared Pyro's pedigree formula to Street Sense's.


Also they interviewed Gary Contessa, who said he had nowhere to move his 100 horses if NYRA closed down this week. Phily Park is full and Laurel can only take 40. Just that he called around is telling.

[Hank]

Pyro got his last quarter in 22.60. FG is close to my home, saw him work in company with Curlin in the AM thought he looked like a runner, after this race I'd say He's the best 3yo Ive seen at FG in quite a while, maybe since Risen Star,not saying he'll be that good but at THIS STAGE in his develoment he looks like he MIGHT BE.:ThmbUp:

[DeanT]

Well the cash came in on Pyro. 17% chance to win the derby, and it is February!

All other 3YO's went up to a juicy 3-1.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080211/SPORTS08/802110514/1037

[toetoe]

I have the field, but gallant gelding Georgie Boy is at 69-to-stinkin'-1. :eek:

[classhandicapper]

The pace wasn't slow...it was insanely slow. That scenario usually leads to a bunched up finish. In this race however, one horse with a brutal trip destroyed the rest coming from last. It isn't like he won by a nose. He is so far superior to the rest it is hard to imagine the others being much.

Pyro looked like a terrific Triple Crown prospect last year. This race did nothing to diminish him despite the final time.

I am also suggesting that the race was designated as a Grade 3, but the quality of the race was really at least a Grade 2. So when some of these other horses start showing up in Listed and Grade 2 and 3 Stakes with weak figures, I think it is highly likely they will fit just fine despite the official Grade 3 designation of the race and the slow figure. They just got beat by a Grade 1 horse.

[classhandicapper]

Class, No they didn't stink. On my scale, I gave th erace the equivalent of
a Beyer between 98-100.

John

PS We had this same discussion after the Blue Grass last year so it seems like is De-Ja-Vu all over again (sorry Yogie)

Interesting, but I think Beyer gave it a 90. I suspect there could easily be a dispute here about how much the pace impacted the final time vs. the speed of the track.

IMO, this is exactly the type of situation where class handicapping is very useful anyway.

When I looked at that pace I simply assumed (actually knew) the final time would be irrelevant anyway (they came home faster than they ran early and Pyro was obviously running past the limit of most horses).

IMO, that field was better than a Grade 3 group no matter what the clock says or what any figure maker assigns it.

It was a solid Grade 2 or weak Grade 1 3YO field for this time of year and that's how I will evaluate the horses when they come out of it. I'm not even going to look at the figures.

[russowen77]

Would you still rate this race as a possible Grade 1 after the 1 scratched?


If you wouldn't mind I wish you would share with us your thoughts about why this was a solid Grade II race. I would sure appreciate it.

[JPinMaryland]

22.6? You sure, Hank? WHere exactly to they make the stretch call down there? Cant tell much from the chart, I saw the race but didnt pick up Pyro until the end cant tell where he made his move...22.6 sounds a little too fast for the dirt. Blackberry Rd. probably runnning 23.5 I dont think Pyro is moving a second faster..

[Hank]

I think the 22.6 is solid,BUT I cant swear to it, I'm relying on the trackmans report the next day.Z fortune came home in 23.8 and Pyro went by him like he was tied to a post.

[russowen77]

I don't know about the numbers but the fact he had been working in tandem with and running evenly with Curlin says loads. SA is a very conservative trainer. I hate he is a closer . However, breeding wise he is good to go for the 1st two. His DI is 3.73 and his DP is 8-7-11-0-0 (26). That in combination with his RS makes him a real stretch for the Belmont.

Anyone have a clue where SA will ship Z factor. one has got to go imo.

[jonnielu]

Hey everyone~
I was just wanting to get a gage on what everyone thought of Pyro's performance in the Risen Star. I'm new to posting on here, so cut me a little slack, but I wasn't blown away with his effort. The best part was how weaved his way through traffic, pretty athletic, but remember most of the best 3yo are in Florida, so he'll never see most of those horses ever again. Also, how many times have you watched races from the Fair Grounds & the winner is the horse who comes widest & makes his run the latest? Especially with that stretch that's about 6 furlongs. =) Granted, he got the last quarter in 22.6, but Indian Blessing ran a second faster. She's no slouch, but she was begging for the wire at the end of her race. I think there's room for improvement, but I'm not ready to crown him the Triple Crown winner. What's everyone thoughts?

Pyro got an opportunity and made a nice move to swing to the outside, outran tiring horses, so what. Better then the rest, but who is the rest?

jdl

[DanG]

Pyro got an opportunity and made a nice move to swing to the outside, outran tiring horses, so what. Better then the rest, but who is the rest?

jdl
This brings up a good point on the TC trail (Or any high quality race for that matter)

For discussion sake;

By this logic under what circumstances could the animal have impressed you because of your opinion on the rest of the field?

[classhandicapper]

If you wouldn't mind I wish you would share with us your thoughts about why this was a solid Grade II race. I would sure appreciate it.

Typically, the average field of horses is made up of between 2-4 contenders that fall into 1 of these categories:

1. Just won a race one class level below today's race

2. Has already been racing competitively at today's level (in the money etc..)

3. Has been racing reasonably well at a higher level and seems to be dropping to the appropriate level.

The offical designation was Grade 3.

Pyro has already been very competitive in ELITE Grade one races while earning good figures.

EZ Fortune was an undefeated rapidly improving Grade 3 winner last out.

To me, that's already 2 horses that suggest this was better than a Grade 3 race.

Visionaire hadn't won a minor stake yet, but he was a huge ALW winner of his last and also looked like a rapidly improving horse from a very good barn.

Blackberry Road has already been competitive in Grade 3 and Grade 2 races.

A few of the others were listed stakes winners, ALW winners, or somewhat competitive in other stakes but they all were beaten fairly badly. That suggests that this was a deep field and the horses near the top of the race were much better than those lower class levels. Of course, I'm not analyzing every trip and individual horse, I am getting a general feel for the qualilty of the field.

Classing these early stakes can get a little tricky because there's not much of a gap between limited allowance horses and the better stakes horses yet. The gap widens at the horses mature. Recent impressive ALW winners often fit quite well in these early minor stakes.

So my overall impression is that the quality of this race was better than the typical Grade 3 race for 3YOs at this time of year. I am calling it Grade 2 for my own clarity of thought and because I see no evidence it was Grade 1 race (other than Pyro).

[JustRalph]

Pyro got an opportunity and made a nice move to swing to the outside, outran tiring horses, so what. Better then the rest, but who is the rest?jdl

One of the things I have promised myself to do is watch more video of possible Triple Crown horses this year. I am trying to hone my skills at this. Been watching many many hours on the DVR and I have to tell you. You do get better at it. I think it was an impressive "move" and like somebody else posted, made him look like he could be a pretty damn good horse on the turf if he can reproduce that kind of turn of foot.

But the thing that really impressed me is; he looked like he could have gone around again...........no problem.

[Bruddah]

the Risen Star can best be described as dawdling. The fractions were atrocious, for this level of competition. Add the lengths Pyro ran behind, and he was in an easy gallop and not asked to run, until the last quarter. Which is his natural running style. The other horses stunk, and Pyro ran his normal workout, as a closer. (JMHO)

[cj]

I've never said it wasn't a decent field. What I am trying to say is that you can't really judge the participants on this race, other than the pace setters who ran poorly.

[russowen77]

That class. That was quite insightful.

[jognlope]

Tomcito may be in Derby field, should be interesting.

[Hank]

Pyro got an opportunity and made a nice move to swing to the outside, outran tiring horses, so what. Better then the rest, but who is the rest?

jdl

I see you don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions,HE passed the WHOLE field like they were standing still,and some of them were NOT tiring. Given the pace why would they be tiring? Z fortune came home in 23.8 tiring Please:ThmbDown:

[Hank]

Pyro got his last quarter in 22.60. FG is close to my home, saw him work in company with Curlin in the AM thought he looked like a runner, after this race I'd say He's the best 3yo Ive seen at FG in quite a while, maybe since Risen Star,not saying he'll be that good but at THIS STAGE in his develoment he looks like he MIGHT BE.:ThmbUp:

CORRECTION Pyro came home in 22.3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DanG]

CORRECTION Pyro came home in 22.3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To Hanks point…



Randy Moss who digitally timed the run... [NTRA blog]
http://www.ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=2&year=2008&month=2&day=11


Beyer on War Pass who was certainly flattered by Pyro’s performance…[Washington Post]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/08/AR2008020803619.html?sub=AR

[john del riccio]

To Hanks point…


Randy Moss who digitally timed the run... [NTRA blog]
http://www.ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=2&year=2008&month=2&day=11


Beyer on War Pass who was certainly flattered by Pyro’s performance…[Washington Post]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/08/AR2008020803619.html?sub=AR

Dan,

You know what I find unbeleivable about this thread.....

Making speed figures, at least accurate ones, is a whole lot less cerebral than many folks think (Major League humility being shown by said figure maker here....).

The pace of this affair fell outside the region of what woule be acceptable,
by whatreber standard/experience level one would have. Therefore, the final time of the race, BY IT SELF, means nothing. Should I say that again ?

Therefore, the ONLY way to facilitate making an accurate figure for this race is to use only TWO factors. The horses in the race, and the race dynamic.

That is all. What else can one do ?

We all had this same discussion last year after the Blue Grass.....this time the race wasn't on the fake stuff, it was on real dirt. PYRO is going in the right direction. Lets hope he stays sound.

John

[classhandicapper]

To Hanks point…


Randy Moss who digitally timed the run... [NTRA blog]
http://www.ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=2&year=2008&month=2&day=11


Beyer on War Pass who was certainly flattered by Pyro’s performance…[Washington Post]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/08/AR2008020803619.html?sub=AR


Even before I read this article the horse I thought War Pass reminded me of most was Seattle Slew.

I'm not much of a pedigree guy, but I'd have to agree that his pedigree doesn't look he going to love stretching out all that much.

I do have one other minor insight. I don't know why for certain, but it has been my experience that a lot of Nick Zito trained horses move up on a wet track. The BC Juvenile was on a very sloppy track. It's not impossible that this is a VERY GOOD horse that's a FREAK on a wet track.

[Hank]

Hold on now, 'Seattle Slew' GENUFLECT;) This is like seeing a talented young welterweight and saying he reminds you of SUGAR RAY ROBINSON;)

[jonnielu]

This brings up a good point on the TC trail (Or any high quality race for that matter)

For discussion sake;

By this logic under what circumstances could the animal have impressed you because of your opinion on the rest of the field?

There are no circumstances under which the animal could impress me. It is just plain too early. However, I do recognize the lateral move through a tight spot without distraction as a positive to give credit for. I think that the run was poorly timed on the part of the jockey, he should have been on the front side of the jam at the head of the stretch instead of the backside. He'll need to bring it sooner... come March.

jdl

[jonnielu]

One of the things I have promised myself to do is watch more video of possible Triple Crown horses this year. I am trying to hone my skills at this. Been watching many many hours on the DVR and I have to tell you. You do get better at it. I think it was an impressive "move" and like somebody else posted, made him look like he could be a pretty damn good horse on the turf if he can reproduce that kind of turn of foot.

But the thing that really impressed me is; he looked like he could have gone around again...........no problem.

Without the hole, there would be no move at all, in that scenario, how impressive would the finish be?

[jonnielu]

I see you don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions,HE passed the WHOLE field like they were standing still,and some of them were NOT tiring. Given the pace why would they be tiring? Z fortune came home in 23.8 tiring Please:ThmbDown:

Okay, now I'm going to have my daughter look at the PP's for this animal and tell me whether or not he has a shot at the Derby. I usually have her wait until March for this, but I'm going to make an exception just for Pyro this year.

jdl

[Tom]

Considering he was the slowest of all early on, his late kick has to to put into perspective. He should have run fast down the stretch - did nothing up until then. I'll wait until he faces a legitimate Gr1 pace before I get excited.
At the time, he looked impressive, but looks don't win big races. He certainly did not digrace himself. Remeber, Street Sense in his Turfway Derby prep?

[Robert Fischer]

Considering he was the slowest of all early on, his late kick has to to put into perspective. He should have run fast down the stretch - did nothing up until then. I'll wait until he faces a legitimate Gr1 pace before I get excited.
At the time, he looked impressive, but looks don't win big races. He certainly did not digrace himself. Remeber, Street Sense in his Turfway Derby prep?

Right on. All that Pyro showed us, was that he has a very good late kick when he has plenty of horse left. Pyro must run with a faster cruising speed in future races, which will leave less in the tank for brilliant stretch runs. We also have to see how Pyro stretches out to the additional one and a half furlongs. Closers do not always stretch out as well as they would appear. All of that said, he seems to belong to the group of real contenders at this point.

[JustRalph]

I still say the impressive part was the fact that he looked like he could go much further......... the turn of foot was visually impressive.........but I don't think he was blowing at all...........?

[john del riccio]

Hold on now, 'Seattle Slew' GENUFLECT;) This is like seeing a talented young welterweight and saying he reminds you of SUGAR RAY ROBINSON;)

BINGO !!!!!!!!!!

John

[Pell Mell]

I think he is another Silky Sullivan and I'm doing the same as I did with Silky and totally disregard him.:sleeping:

[DanG]

There are no circumstances under which the animal could impress me.

jdl
Interesting…

Enjoy the 3yo campaign.

[Murph]

Considering he was the slowest of all early on, his late kick has to to put into perspective. He should have run fast down the stretch - did nothing up until then. I'll wait until he faces a legitimate Gr1 pace before I get excited.
At the time, he looked impressive, but looks don't win big races. He certainly did not digrace himself. Remeber, Street Sense in his Turfway Derby prep?Your point about the pace time is well taken, Tom. Until Pyro is tested with a
G1 pace scenario, I won't be able to properly evaluate his last race.

Murph

[shanta]

The Fat Man's "Fat Charts" for the 3 dirt stakes races that day really paint a nice picture of the superior horse(s).

His stuff is tight man :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

Interesting…

Enjoy the 3yo campaign.

In February, I always do.

jdl

[DanG]

In the spirit of John Del Riccio post;

Steve Crist’s blog on how “Pace made the Figs” in the Risen Star.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

BTW: I do find it interesting how this race is being discussed so rationally, where just last year it seemed worlds were colliding because of the Blue Grass. :rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

That pace was pathetic.....That race alone didn't prove much.

Many a colt can cruise home after only barely going faster than 1:15.

[Tom]

On a Quirin scale, the filly race went 125-111 while the Pyro race went 70 - 107

[JPinMaryland]

CORRECTION Pyro came home in 22.3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Umm is Randy Moss using 5 lengths per second? Because I think that's what they did here. Then again I cant even find the Ocala race on my PC so I am obviously not firing on all synapses... :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

Umm is Randy Moss using 5 lengths per second? Because I think that's what they did here. Then again I cant even find the Ocala race on my PC so I am obviously not firing on all synapses... :bang:

I think he is saying he watched the replay and used a digital timer in relation to the actual horse and the poles.

[jonnielu]

I see you don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions,HE passed the WHOLE field like they were standing still,and some of them were NOT tiring. Given the pace why would they be tiring? Z fortune came home in 23.8 tiring Please:ThmbDown:

Got a chance to check a couple of facts today, Pyro is doubtful for being triple crown material, sorry.

jdl

[JPinMaryland]

I think he is saying he watched the replay and used a digital timer in relation to the actual horse and the poles.


well something's off here. Pyro made up 9 1/4 or so in the last 5/16. The fractions indicate 30 sec for the last 5/16. taking 7 len/sec (and why not given how fast they are going?) pyro did the last 5/16 28.66.

If he accelerated evenly, he probably did the last quarter in 22.9.

If he did not...well he made up 5 lengths at the stretch call so he apears to be traveling about the same speed throughout, but I dunno where the stretch call is made.

I dont understand how the chart can be this far off, unless someone is using 5 len/sec... :bang:

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

Andy says that Pyro's late kick was a jaw-dropper of a move and that he has been watching and covering prep races for the Kentucky Derby for four decades, and he would rank this race amoung the most impressive ever- along with Honest Pleasure's 1976 Flamingo and Spend a Buck's 1985 Garden State stakes. The stretch run might be the most eye catching since Silky Sullivan...

[rokitman]

Got a chance to check a couple of facts today, Pyro is doubtful for being triple crown material, sorry.

jdlThanks :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

This thread is an excellent illustration on why there will always be a pari-mutuel edge for your particular handicapping discipline. (Assuming it’s relatively sound of course.)

We all watch the same race and so many drawing different conclusions.

To paraphrase the great movie Schindler's list …”This…is an absolute good”.

BTW: Speaking of late running 3yo’s… Very interested to see if “Monba” moves forward in the Fountain of Youth for Pletcher. He was a locomotive in the cash call mile and a bear to pull up.

Squeezed early, 3-path 1st turn and his action in the stretch was remarkably similar to his sire’s derby winning foal Monarchos. (Of course being out of an Easy Goer mare may be distorting my judgment.) ;)


(Pick your poison on the video if you didn’t see Monba's last run.)



Good volume / poor opening video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG-cGWVIoFk&feature=related


Poor volume and good video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojpAB0JkdYk

[jonnielu]

BTW: Speaking of late running 3yo’s… Very interested to see if “Monba” moves forward in the Fountain of Youth for Pletcher. He was a locomotive in the cash call mile and a bear to pull up.



Doubtful

jdl

[DanG]

Doubtful

jdl
For your client’s sake lets hope you’re a little more articulate that you’re one sentence or less rubbish in this thread. :rolleyes: :sleeping:

[jonnielu]

For your client’s sake lets hope you’re a little more articulate that you’re one sentence or less rubbish in this thread. :rolleyes: :sleeping:

Maybe I'll articulate for the Fountain of Youth

jdl

[Robert Fischer]

For your client’s sake lets hope you’re a little more articulate that you’re one sentence or less rubbish in this thread. :rolleyes: :sleeping:

What does his business have to do with an answer on a message board?


EDIT BTW - I agree that Monba showed a lot of potential in his last, and also the way he was ridden in the Churchill win indicated the jockey felt he was much the best. Will want to see his performance in Florida.

[DanG]

What does his business have to do with an answer on a message board?

Absolutely nothing Robert…

It was a poor attempt to reciprocate what I perceive as blunt replies that did nothing to advance the discussion...nothing more.

[Hank]

Got a chance to check a couple of facts today, Pyro is doubtful for being triple crown material, sorry.

jdl

This statement somehow squares your "passed tiring horses" proclamation???:rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

That race appears to be a classic example of pace collapse making one colt appear to be a monster. Have him run a 47.2 1:10.4 and see if he can come home like that.

[classhandicapper]

That race appears to be a classic example of pace collapse making one colt appear to be a monster. Have him run a 47.2 1:10.4 and see if he can come home like that.

They came home faster than than they ran early. This was as far from a pace collapse as is possible. Pyro is a grade 1 horse and the rest of the contenders were Grade 2/3 horses. A Grade 1 closer is supposed to be able to outkick inferior horses. It's usually just a matter of whether he is superior enough to outkick them and win given the huge disadvantage of being very far behind the very slow pace. There is no doubt that Pyro demonstrated significant superiority to these other horses "at this time" in the Risen Star. But simply outkicking inferior horses and coming home fast off a very slow pace does not tell us how he will match up against other legitimate Grade 1 horses.

[classhandicapper]

Hold on now, 'Seattle Slew' GENUFLECT;) This is like seeing a talented young welterweight and saying he reminds you of SUGAR RAY ROBINSON;)

You mean like Sugar Ray Leonard in the Olympics. ;)

[Bruddah]

They came home faster than than they ran early. This was as far from a pace collapse as is possible. Pyro is a grade 1 horse and the rest of the contenders were Grade 2/3 horses. A Grade 1 closer is supposed to be able to outkick inferior horses. It's usually just a matter of whether he is superior enough to outkick them and win given the huge disadvantage of being very far behind the very slow pace. There is no doubt that Pyro demonstrated significant superiority to these other horses "at this time" in the Risen Star. But simply outkicking inferior horses and coming home fast off a very slow pace does not tell us how he will match up against other legitimate Grade 1 horses.

Old Bruddah agrees with you 100%. The Derby will be a faster pace and 1 1/4 miles. If Pyro runs his normal race, from far back, he will have at least 18 other proven Grade I-II horse to pass, in order to reach the leader.

I am not convinced off his showing in the Risen Star.

[Hank]

You mean like Sugar Ray Leonard in the Olympics. ;)

Touche':D

[njcurveball]

The Derby will be a faster pace and 1 1/4 miles. If Pyro runs his normal race, from far back, he will have at least 18 other proven Grade I-II horse to pass, in order to reach the leader.




Sounds like another horse who didn't have a chance. :ThmbUp:

Giacomo broke 18th out of the gate in the 20-horse field and ran back there until moving up to 11th with 440 yards to go. He was sixth in the stretch but only 3 1/2 lengths from the leader.

[northerndancer]

The last quarter was so impressive.....this was great for racing...... but even better for me as I will be wagering against him from now until Derby day.....why you ask:

1. This horse peaked too early in the season....this was a monster performance which will compromise his chances the first Saturday in May;
2. The field of horses he beat in the Risen Star was adequate at best;
3. In order for his type of running style to win the Derby he would need a dream trip like Ferdinand;

[46zilzal]

Sounds like another horse who didn't have a chance.

Giacomo broke 18th out of the gate in the 20-horse field and ran back there until moving up to 11th with 440 yards to go. He was sixth in the stretch but only 3 1/2 lengths from the leader.
The colt that didn't have a chance was chose by at least four Sartin members, three of whom post here.

H.S.J won our Derby contest that year with his choice and showed us all why.

[JustRalph]

That race appears to be a classic example of pace collapse making one colt appear to be a monster. Have him run a 47.2 1:10.4 and see if he can come home like that.

may I remind you of this post in the Giants Thread?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=476480&postcount=59

I gotta bust your balls for that one............. :lol:

I have watched the race a couple of more times.......... I think it looks better the more I watch it.

[njcurveball]

The colt that didn't have a chance was chose by at least four Sartin members, three of whom post here.



We can count on one of two things happening.

1.) Pyro wins and a few minutes later you are posting his Energy Distribution was perfect for the Derby and you had him picked since this thread.

2.) Pyro loses and a few minutes later you are posting his Energy Distribution (and maturity) were not compatible with 10 furlungs and you had been telling us just that since this thread.

Either way, you seem to come up with the right answer starting at the finish line and working your way backwards.

Great job! :ThmbUp:

[Hank]

The funny thing about this thread is that the question was "how impressive was Pyro" This was the colts FIRST I repeat FIRST race as a 3yo those who liked his move were NOT proclaiming him a triple crown winner or even a KY derby winner simply assesing a colts FIRST 3yo race,but the naysayers leap in and proceed as if the question was "will pyro win the KY derby":rolleyes:

[northerndancer]

Hank good point.......

His race was very impressive...... the last quarter no matter what the situation is was awesome....... he was lucky that he did not have to check and that things opened up allowing him clear running......

That being said projecting out the horse will be a force to be dealt with during his three year old campaign but I wonder if that type of effort will end up costing him something in the future.

It is nice to see that all threads end up in the same position.

[DanG]

The funny thing about this thread is that the question was "how impressive was Pyro" This was the colts FIRST I repeat FIRST race as a 3yo those who liked his move were NOT proclaiming him a triple crown winner or even a KY derby winner simply assesing a colts FIRST 3yo race,but the naysayers leap in and proceed as if the question was "will pyro win the KY derby":rolleyes:
Well put Hank… :ThmbUp:

Any time a good 2yo is put away / returns kicking the barn down in the am and follows that with genuine 2-turn power…it's only a good sign. We can’t get enough quality 3yo’s and lets hope the War Pass’s etc come out firing as well.

[john del riccio]

dan,


if we took PYRO out of this race, we would be saying that the NY bred ran a credible race from post 11, getting a wide trip, and still getting the job done.... lets not forget, he was pretty eye catching himself once clear in his prior race.

how many races with a slow pace like this were won by the horse on the lead or just off the lead stalking it. the winner came from last, and the 2nd place finisher wasn't on the pace early either.

anyone that thinks his effort was unimpressive hasn't been around the game long enough to know better. he isn't seattle slew but he certainly showed he is an above th median 3yo for sure.

i'm not sure why we are over-thinking this here.

john

[toetoe]

dancer,

We'll both have to mutually agree that you self-contradicted yourself.

If the competitors were suspect, the performance is not monstrous. If the performance is monstrously taxing regardless --- I mean, irregardless ---, the quality of the field is irrelevant. :confused:

[46zilzal]

may I remind you of this post in the Giants Thread?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=476480&postcount=59

I gotta bust your balls for that one............. :lol:

I have watched the race a couple of more times.......... I think it looks better the more I watch it.

Was it? I was working.

[46zilzal]

Run around the block twice.

First time go very fast and have a friend time time you the last 1/4 of the way.

Rest for 30 minutes.

Go 30% slower to that same point where you were timed and have your friend time you the last 1/4 of the way.

Which last bit do you think would be faster?

basic Huey Mahl.

[DanG]

dan,


if we took PYRO out of this race, we would be saying that the NY bred ran a credible race from post 11, getting a wide trip, and still getting the job done.... lets not forget, he was pretty eye catching himself once clear in his prior race.

how many races with a slow pace like this were won by the horse on the lead or just off the lead stalking it. the winner came from last, and the 2nd place finisher wasn't on the pace early either.

anyone that thinks his effort was unimpressive hasn't been around the game long enough to know better. he isn't seattle slew but he certainly showed he is an above th median 3yo for sure.

i'm not sure why we are over-thinking this here.

john
Agreed John;

This one has been all but talked through. I think we are all chomping at the bit for the 3yo season to crank up and this thread shows it. :jump:

Yes, the NY bred Z- Humor ran real brave and I thought he completely lost interest entering the lane. Gomez said he lost focus from the crowd noise and it took him several jumps to get running again.

One thing I bet we do see from Pyro’s trainer is he will gear down the drills for the next step. That was one sharp animal (am and afternoon) this far away from the big dance.

[Bruddah]

dan,


if we took PYRO out of this race, we would be saying that the NY bred ran a credible race from post 11, getting a wide trip, and still getting the job done.... lets not forget, he was pretty eye catching himself once clear in his prior race.

how many races with a slow pace like this were won by the horse on the lead or just off the lead stalking it. the winner came from last, and the 2nd place finisher wasn't on the pace early either.

anyone that thinks his effort was unimpressive hasn't been around the game long enough to know better. he isn't seattle slew but he certainly showed he is an above th median 3yo for sure.

i'm not sure why we are over-thinking this here.


john

Sorry John, my opinion and 40+ years of playing the horses isn't long enough to know better. I will go one further this early in predictions, Pyro won't hit the top 5 in the Ky Derby. If he is still running, he has a chance at the Belmont. I will stick with this until Pyro proves it wrong.

Excuse me while I continue to get my experience in this game. Maybe next year (44 years) will qualify me to have an opinion. If not maybe at 50 years you will allow me to have one. :lol:

[shanta]

I thought Pyro's race showed he is healthy. The come home time shows that.

Seems obvious that he can and will close against fast fractions. The races last year against the top buck War Pass show that.

If War Pass goes in the Derby he and Pyro will "recognize" one another from their previous battles. A little "equine psychology"there man :)

The race flow certainly should not hurt Pyro. He's a real horse.

Gonna be a great Derby! :jump: :jump:

[cj]

If Pyro wasn't in the race, the speed figure would have been around 85 or 86, which is hardly good for stakes 3yos, even in February.

To me, it boiled down to one superior horse (to this field) overcoming bad circumstances and winning anyway. He was even more superior in the race than I believed he was coming in. Time will tell how he matches up against future fields. He certainly won't run down War Pass if he spots that one 8 lengths with that kind of pace, whether it is a 1m 1/16 or 2 miles.

[46zilzal]

If War Pass goes in the Derby he and Pyro will "recognize" one another from their previous battles. A little "equine psychology" there man


One great thing about horses: they are not smart enough to remember specific battles. They simply run as an instinctual maneuver.

Read Horsewatching by Desmond Morris (the Naked Ape author)

[rastajenk]

Useful post on Crist's blog (http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2008/02/its-astounding.html), with fractions and Beyers for all three FG stakes that day. (I hope the link works; DRF - may require registration, I guess)

Not too keen on his 90. Every year or so it seems like there's a race that gets miscalculated, and everything in it runs back consistently 8 or ten points better (or worse), but I'm not sure this is one of those. Everything from the LeComte regressed, I guess you could say, by the same 6-8 points, but everything else earned numbers compatible with what they took in to the race. It might be that you could give him and the other runners-up a little more credit after they run their next ones. Hard to take it at face value, but I want to see much more the next time.

[shanta]

One great thing about horses: they are not smart enough to remember specific battles. They simply run as an instinctual maneuver.

Read Horsewatching by Desmond Morris (the Naked Ape author)

Respectfully disagree as I spent a lot of time with someone who is very well versed in this equine behavior and knows how to apply it to capping/evaluating races to find contenders.

They do recognize one another from previous battles.

[46zilzal]

from an article from Horse magazine; "A horse will learn nothing when under stress - as the survival urge will blank out memory."

Running at top speed is fairly stressful methinks.

Reprinted here from Dr. Clive Dalton.
http://www.lifestyleblock.co.nz/articles/Horse_behaviour/02_horse_senses.htm

[shanta]

from an article from Horse magazine; "A horse will learn nothing when under stress - as the survival urge will blank out memory."

Running at top speed is fairly stressful methinks.

Reprinted here from Dr. Clive Dalton.
http://www.lifestyleblock.co.nz/articles/Horse_behaviour/02_horse_senses.htm

Who penned the article? Human or Horse?

When a horse writes a piece saying "Listen we really don't recognize one another guys ok?" then I might pay attention. Til then to each his own :)

Sorry for thread drift. I'm out.

[GaryG]

Sorry for thread drift. I'm out.Good idea Richie.....this guy wants the last word more than my ex-mother in law.

[john del riccio]

Sorry John, my opinion and 40+ years of playing the horses isn't long enough to know better. I will go one further this early in predictions, Pyro won't hit the top 5 in the Ky Derby. If he is still running, he has a chance at the Belmont. I will stick with this until Pyro proves it wrong.

Excuse me while I continue to get my experience in this game. Maybe next year (44 years) will qualify me to have an opinion. If not maybe at 50 years you will allow me to have one. :lol:

Bruhhah,

I meant no disrespect to you (or anyone else). PYRO is an above average 3yo. if he doesn't progress at all he will be able to beat older horses in small stakesright now. I can't comment on the KY derby but i will say that if his next start is the LA Derby, not knowing who will show up, I'd be surprised if he didn't run 1-2.

John

[john del riccio]

If Pyro wasn't in the race, the speed figure would have been around 85 or 86


Please explain why you think that ?

John

[northerndancer]

dancer,

We'll both have to mutually agree that you self-contradicted yourself.

If the competitors were suspect, the performance is not monstrous. If the performance is monstrously taxing regardless --- I mean, irregardless ---, the quality of the field is irrelevant. :confused:

Toe to clarify IMO the effort was a monsterous by a young horse early in the year..... you just do not see that type of last quarter from horses this young....... most punters will remember this effort as a positive sign...... I on the other hand read into the effort as a negative when it comes to future perfromances....

I apologize for any contradictory undertones in my post and appreciate you pointing out the error of my ways.

[46zilzal]

I don't think the majority deny potential here, just one quarter in a very slow mid-range route is not enough to label this one Derby material yet.

[njcurveball]

They do recognize one another from previous battles.


Anyone who watched the Affirmed/Alydar rivalry knows those 2 horses could recognize each other in a dense fog. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Please explain why you think that ?

John

I should have said Beyer figure. Since the race earned a 90, and he won by 2+ lengths, I was just deducting that from the figure.

Seeing how Pyro was last until late, it isn't like his absence would have changed the pace scenario.

[toetoe]

For all my posts that elicit a response of < :bang: >, I am < :blush: >.

In the great mythical rematch of Affirmed/Alydar, we have new riders. Billy Patin on Alydar sees Sylvester Carmouche on Affirmed, well ... sitting chilly. He recognizes him (AND his game) through the mist, and ejaculates, "WHAAAAAT !?!" You come back here. I'm SHOCKED !

[john del riccio]

I should have said Beyer figure. Since the race earned a 90, and he won by 2+ lengths, I was just deducting that from the figure.

Seeing how Pyro was last until late, it isn't like his absence would have changed the pace scenario.

I think the NY bred that ran 2nd earned at 95 or 96 Beyer in the Lecomte.
Are you saying that he regressed by 4 lengths off that effort in th Risen Star ?

John

[cj]

I think the NY bred that ran 2nd earned at 95 or 96 Beyer in the Lecomte.
Are you saying that he regressed by 4 lengths off that effort in th Risen Star ?

John

Yes...but not so much because he ran poorly, but because the pace was a total crawl. There are slow paces, then there was this race.

Again, I'm not saying you can judge the horses based on this race alone. About the only thing I come out of this race with is that there is virtually no way for any horse in that field to ever beat Pyro when he is fit.

[jonnielu]

Sorry John, my opinion and 40+ years of playing the horses isn't long enough to know better. I will go one further this early in predictions, Pyro won't hit the top 5 in the Ky Derby. If he is still running, he has a chance at the Belmont. I will stick with this until Pyro proves it wrong.

Excuse me while I continue to get my experience in this game. Maybe next year (44 years) will qualify me to have an opinion. If not maybe at 50 years you will allow me to have one. :lol:

Ditto, agreed, second.

jdl

[rokitman]

If Pyro wasn't in the race, the speed figure would have been around 85 or 86, which is hardly good for stakes 3yos, even in February.

To me, it boiled down to one superior horse (to this field) overcoming bad circumstances and winning anyway. He was even more superior in the race than I believed he was coming in. Time will tell how he matches up against future fields. He certainly won't run down War Pass if he spots that one 8 lengths with that kind of pace, whether it is a 1m 1/16 or 2 miles.That same race against the top of the class, and he's running for 3rd, at best. War Pass would have been back in the barn having a pina colada by the time Pyro was done with his splashy move. There will be a few more forwardly placed Grade 1 horses that will be arising soon that he will also have to catch. Deep closers lose, as he demonstrated last year.

[Hank]

This is hilarious:D A second rater like Giacmo can win the derby a 5th rater like closing argument can run second but a nice colt can be proclaimed 6th at best in the Ky Derby after ONE prep.move over NOSTRADMAS:lol:

[JPinMaryland]

. Deep closers lose, as he demonstrated last year...

If you mean the derby, have you ever bothered to count them??

[jonnielu]

This is hilarious:D A second rater like Giacmo can win the derby a 5th rater like closing argument can run second but a nice colt can be proclaimed 6th at best in the Ky Derby after ONE prep.move over NOSTRADMAS:lol:

What you might consider is how often the 1st rater wins it.

jdl

[Hank]

What you might consider is how often the 1st rater wins it.

jdl

Oh it crossed my mind a time or two,so please O SEER who are th FIRST raters RIGHT NOW BEFORE any major preps have even been run.Please name them for us lesser lights.Thank you O mighty ORACLE.

[46zilzal]

If you mean the derby, have you ever bothered to count them??
Rumbo, Sweetnorthernsaint, Afleet Alex, Silky Sullivan among others off the top of my head. The show colt last year.

[cj]

Sweetnorthernsaint a closer? You are again trying to confuse people using definitions not used by most. That horse has not passed very many on the track unless you count going backwards. He has hardly ever improved his first call position, and never more than one position or one length.

[jonnielu]

Oh it crossed my mind a time or two,so please O SEER who are th FIRST raters RIGHT NOW BEFORE any major preps have even been run.Please name them for us lesser lights.Thank you O mighty ORACLE.

Sure, you list just what your problem is, and I'll take the time to list the 19 contenders.

[classhandicapper]

If Pyro wasn't in the race, the speed figure would have been around 85 or 86, which is hardly good for stakes 3yos, even in February.



CJ,

IMO, it's likely the pace was slow enough to impact the other horses in the race too. They also came home fast relative to the typical race/pace scenario for this quality of horse (Just not as fast as Pyro because he's better)

That's why I keep saying it's a good idea to look at the race from a qualitative/class point of view. The pace was so slow it's hard to measure what impact it had on any of horses "numerically".

If these are really 85/86 horses, they aren't even good ALW horses. But if you look at their overall records, they give every indication they are legitimate Grade 2/3 horses for this time of year. That makes them at LEAST 10 or more points better than a mid 80s figure.

When the other top finishing horses come out of this race, I'm expecting them to earn speed figures in the mid 90s if they are spotted properly.

Personally, I think everyone's numbers for this race are pretty much irrelevant for determining the horses' ability other than describing how slow the pace was and how fast they came home (like last year's BlueGrass). I don't think we are going to find out how much some of these horses have in the tank until they are actually asked to run all the way.

[cj]

Personally, I think everyone's numbers from this race are pretty much irrelevant for determining the horses' ability other than describing how slow the pace was and how fast they came home.

Isn't this what I've been saying all along? It is obvious Pyro is way above the rest though.

[Hank]

Sure, you list just what your problem is, and I'll take the time to list the 19 contenders.

Sure,Go back and read your factually incorrect and inane post.

[rokitman]

If you mean the derby, have you ever bothered to count them??No, I have a life to lead. But I don't need to count them to know that if I did count ALL the deep closers, and not just the ones that won, it would come out to a very bad win % and ROI, just like in races that don't have Kentucky in their name. You can't just count the ones that won, my dear, and say deep closers won X percentage of all Kentucky Derbies!!!

So, you tell me, since you know already, what is the win percentage and ROI of ALL the deep closers that have run in the Kentucky Derby?

[Semipro]

Good points John;

Side note; what a great illustration of how deceiving one-dimensional final times can be.

As CJ pointed out…


Indian Blessing: 99
Pyro: 91 (Approximately)
Does anyone seriously doubt that Pyro would hand Indian Blessing her head in any 2-turn race?NOT ME