SRK
02-09-2008, 02:38 PM
Race 1
A ton of early speed is signed up for the opener on Saturday’s card. Add to that, the debut of the new Pro-Ride Cushion Track that is anybody’s guess how it will play, and the fact that the closers in this race all have some serious question marks surrounding them, and it adds up to a very tough race to handicap. The Five J’s (3) caught my eye in his last, with his impressive middle move from just off the pace. He drops in class, and this is his third race off a 5 month layoff. On the down side, are his low percentage jockey and habit of coming up short. At 10-1 on the morning line, he might be worth a look. Black Jack Attack (9), drops in class, stretches back out to a route, and gives the AW track another try. He has enough speed, and Mitchell is calling the shots. Prince of Gold (2) will have plenty of speed up front to set up his off the pace style, has been working well during his holiday vacation, and has wins at the distance, at Santa Anita, and over the AW. Neither the jock nor the trainer inspire much confidence, however. A toughie. No one would blame you for watching this one.
Race 2
I gotta admit, the morning line maker must know something I don’t. That would explain why Carmel Coffee (2) is the 3-1 favorite. She’s first time on the turf, first time going two turns, and her trainer is not known for either move. Go figure? I’m going to watch the tote, and if she gets hammered down, I’ll probably just watch the race, and if she doesn’t, I’m going to try to beat her. The fact that several other sprinters in here are also stretching out, leads me to believe we will see another contested early pace. The two best closers appear to be Blanche Sweet (3), who was compromised by a slow pace in her last, and Scarlet Love (1) who looks like she can stay reasonably close before unleashing her late move, but must overcome the rail draw. Bartok’s Bling (8) is another who figures to be coming late, and deserves a mention on your tickets.
RACE 3 SCRATCH DAWN AFTER DAWN (1)
Don’t be too quick to label the new surface, as Race 3 is yet another race with plenty of early speed signed on. Tough Tiz’s Sis (4) appears to be a slightly vulnerable, short-priced favorite, in this petite sized field. Sis has faced better, certainly has the speed, can win just off the pace, and sports a very solid record at this track, at this distance and (almost) on this surface. My suspicion, though, is she’s shown us all she’s got in her last two stretch duels with Romance is Diane, and appears to have little upside potential. Even without an upside, Sis will need for someone else to fire their best shot for her to be denied. How about Dawn after Dawn (scratch)? Dawn also faced some tough ladies last year, and actually finished ahead of the favorite in the Ky Oaks. She should be tighter than in her last, her second start off a long layoff, when her saddle slipped. She loses Gomez, however, and gets the dreaded rail, but if she moves forward, Dawn could give Sis a run for her money. Actually there is a lot to like about Somethingaboutlaura (5) including the jockey, the trainer, her wins at the distance and over the AW. A winner of 18 races lifetime, she merits respect.
Race 4
Finally, some normalcy. A tough to figure, 6 ½ furlong sprint, on the downhill turf course. Maidens no less. No one jumps off the page, so I’m not going to let myself get Burnt (11), by a Frankel first timer. She sports solid works, and gets a favorable outside post. Stop the Humor(4) will offer value with her 0 for 17 lifetime record. She has run decently, over this layout, and jock Tyler Baze has already won at this tricky trip this meet. Should hit the board at a price. Speaking of price, call me nuts, but I think Chateau Suisse (7) could also hit the board, at 30-1 on the morning line. She ran decently over this turf course back at Oak Tree, and stayed close to a very fast pace, while routing, before going on the shelf. Has worked well for her return. Dandy Mandy (6) is a Todd Pletcher mystery horse. He does quite well with these, and Mandy certainly showed promise back in New York in 2006. Watch the tote and double/exacta probables, along with the Pick 3 and Pick 4 will pays for clues. Frankel’s other entrant, Soothing Touch (1) will have to really step it up to overcome the rail, as will Only First Class (3), and while either could hit the board, I think they both will be overbet in this wide open race.
Race 5 SCRATCH ZADA BELLE (8)
I was was really starting to feel insecure. When I saw that the linesmaker has got another horse, in this case, ZadaBelle (scratch) installed as the 9/5 chalk, and I gotta once again ask myself, “what does he know that I don’t?” I think Renegade Ruby (6) might just be your good luck charm here. She moved forward smartly in her second start, breaking her maiden in a final time that easily puts her right in the thick of things here. If she continues to move forward – adios !!!! Lochinvar’sGold (7), also looks dangerous, and at a price. Second off the layoff, she sat off of very quick fractions before fading against a group that was topped by Intangaroo, who came back to capture the G1 Santa Monica at this very same 7F. She has worked decently since, and I expect her to bounce back today. Tizzy’s Tune (4), finished far ahead of Gold in her last. Her off-the-pace style won’t help her at this distance, and her 5 seconds and 2 thirds in 9 lifetime starts makes me think she is a best used underneath in your exotics.
Race 6
Those who have run have shown little in the second maiden turf sprint on today’s card, but we’ll give two second time starters the best chance to move forward today. Both Decorator (12) and Rate of Exchange (4) debuted in the same race back in December. While they both made up good ground in the stretch, the late pace and final time were very slow. They both, however, have every right to move forward in their second starts. Both have worked well since. None of the first time starters are especially intriguing, but Honest Cause (10) is at least worth a mention with these. She sports good breeding, a trainer who does reasonably well with these, works are decent, and lures Talamo.
Race 7
Here’s a morning line favorite I like. Golden Doc A (4) exits a very fast heat, missing by a head, in a race that set a new track record for 7F. She should once again have some early speed to close into, and with only seven horses entered, should be able to avoid traffic problems. Actually, Lovely Isle (3) might go postward as the favorite. Lot’s to talk about here. New trainer (Frankel), new jock (Flores), new track, new surface, going two two turns for the first time. I think she’s good, but she’ll have to be real good to keep the Doc from passing her late. Beyond these two, I think its really wide open. One filly I’m not putting near the top of my tickets is Grace Anatomy (7). She was unable to make a winning move in a rather sluggish race last out, and I think this winner of one lifetime, will still be looking for her second victory after this is all over.
Race 8
The two shortest prices on the morning line in the G2 San Antonio belong to a pair of very talented, but vulnerable horses. Hard to be too critical of Awesome Gem’s (4) third place finish in the BC Classic. However, there is a long and growing list of horses who have come back from the BC to flop in their next race, and Craig Dollase is not especially noted for his work with layoff horses. Student Council (8) returns from a disappointing trip (way) back East in the Japan Cup last November. Before that, he took down both the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup and the G1 Pacific Classic, and is working very well for the journeymen team of Cerin-Migliore. Sweetnorthernsaint (6) is also working very well for his Santa Anita debut, and will offer value at the windows. Rathor (7) had a very nice tune-up for this, over the turf. He has won over the AW before, and if he moves forward second off the layoff for Frankel, the longest shot on the morning line could inject some growth hormones into your exotics.
Race 9
Mast Track (6) looks like he’s primed for a top effort. He finished two lengths behind Monterey Jazz in his last, and that one went on to dominate the G2 Strub in gate to wire fashion. It didn’t appear that career best effort, which was over 6 weeks ago, was too taxing, as Mast Track came right back to train regularly for Frankel. Incriminate (8) raced well here at Oak Tree, and looks to be going good right now. KrugerPark (9) also fits well with these, and both should be making their presence felt late. Unfortunatley for Towzee (1), he drew the rail, otherwise I would have given this second time US starter an even bigger shot. Asperity (3) is sure to draw attention at the windows. I think he is better suited to routing, and that Drysdale has got other things in mind down the road. Even though, these last two both still need to be included in your exotics.
Race 10
The first day back at the races comes to an end with your usual Pick 4 and Pick 6 busting Maiden Claimer. I guess that’s why they call it gambling. Big Bad Al (1) has all the ingredients to take down top honors here – except one – he’s the morning line favorite. Al drops into MC ranks, gets a positive jock switch to Flores, and had traffic woes to blame for his mediocre debut. Art Sherman is overdue, and sends out interesting first time starter Nymegen Pita(11) here. Keep your eyes on the tote, in the win and exotic will pays, and on the monitor. If you catch a glimpse of Art in the owner’s box, it would be a very good sign. Quityerbellyaching (9) drops back down to a realistic level, and figures in the thick of things. Several more all have a shot, including Cavanaugh (14),Kissin the Cobra (3) and River Royal(8). Wide, wide open.
A ton of early speed is signed up for the opener on Saturday’s card. Add to that, the debut of the new Pro-Ride Cushion Track that is anybody’s guess how it will play, and the fact that the closers in this race all have some serious question marks surrounding them, and it adds up to a very tough race to handicap. The Five J’s (3) caught my eye in his last, with his impressive middle move from just off the pace. He drops in class, and this is his third race off a 5 month layoff. On the down side, are his low percentage jockey and habit of coming up short. At 10-1 on the morning line, he might be worth a look. Black Jack Attack (9), drops in class, stretches back out to a route, and gives the AW track another try. He has enough speed, and Mitchell is calling the shots. Prince of Gold (2) will have plenty of speed up front to set up his off the pace style, has been working well during his holiday vacation, and has wins at the distance, at Santa Anita, and over the AW. Neither the jock nor the trainer inspire much confidence, however. A toughie. No one would blame you for watching this one.
Race 2
I gotta admit, the morning line maker must know something I don’t. That would explain why Carmel Coffee (2) is the 3-1 favorite. She’s first time on the turf, first time going two turns, and her trainer is not known for either move. Go figure? I’m going to watch the tote, and if she gets hammered down, I’ll probably just watch the race, and if she doesn’t, I’m going to try to beat her. The fact that several other sprinters in here are also stretching out, leads me to believe we will see another contested early pace. The two best closers appear to be Blanche Sweet (3), who was compromised by a slow pace in her last, and Scarlet Love (1) who looks like she can stay reasonably close before unleashing her late move, but must overcome the rail draw. Bartok’s Bling (8) is another who figures to be coming late, and deserves a mention on your tickets.
RACE 3 SCRATCH DAWN AFTER DAWN (1)
Don’t be too quick to label the new surface, as Race 3 is yet another race with plenty of early speed signed on. Tough Tiz’s Sis (4) appears to be a slightly vulnerable, short-priced favorite, in this petite sized field. Sis has faced better, certainly has the speed, can win just off the pace, and sports a very solid record at this track, at this distance and (almost) on this surface. My suspicion, though, is she’s shown us all she’s got in her last two stretch duels with Romance is Diane, and appears to have little upside potential. Even without an upside, Sis will need for someone else to fire their best shot for her to be denied. How about Dawn after Dawn (scratch)? Dawn also faced some tough ladies last year, and actually finished ahead of the favorite in the Ky Oaks. She should be tighter than in her last, her second start off a long layoff, when her saddle slipped. She loses Gomez, however, and gets the dreaded rail, but if she moves forward, Dawn could give Sis a run for her money. Actually there is a lot to like about Somethingaboutlaura (5) including the jockey, the trainer, her wins at the distance and over the AW. A winner of 18 races lifetime, she merits respect.
Race 4
Finally, some normalcy. A tough to figure, 6 ½ furlong sprint, on the downhill turf course. Maidens no less. No one jumps off the page, so I’m not going to let myself get Burnt (11), by a Frankel first timer. She sports solid works, and gets a favorable outside post. Stop the Humor(4) will offer value with her 0 for 17 lifetime record. She has run decently, over this layout, and jock Tyler Baze has already won at this tricky trip this meet. Should hit the board at a price. Speaking of price, call me nuts, but I think Chateau Suisse (7) could also hit the board, at 30-1 on the morning line. She ran decently over this turf course back at Oak Tree, and stayed close to a very fast pace, while routing, before going on the shelf. Has worked well for her return. Dandy Mandy (6) is a Todd Pletcher mystery horse. He does quite well with these, and Mandy certainly showed promise back in New York in 2006. Watch the tote and double/exacta probables, along with the Pick 3 and Pick 4 will pays for clues. Frankel’s other entrant, Soothing Touch (1) will have to really step it up to overcome the rail, as will Only First Class (3), and while either could hit the board, I think they both will be overbet in this wide open race.
Race 5 SCRATCH ZADA BELLE (8)
I was was really starting to feel insecure. When I saw that the linesmaker has got another horse, in this case, ZadaBelle (scratch) installed as the 9/5 chalk, and I gotta once again ask myself, “what does he know that I don’t?” I think Renegade Ruby (6) might just be your good luck charm here. She moved forward smartly in her second start, breaking her maiden in a final time that easily puts her right in the thick of things here. If she continues to move forward – adios !!!! Lochinvar’sGold (7), also looks dangerous, and at a price. Second off the layoff, she sat off of very quick fractions before fading against a group that was topped by Intangaroo, who came back to capture the G1 Santa Monica at this very same 7F. She has worked decently since, and I expect her to bounce back today. Tizzy’s Tune (4), finished far ahead of Gold in her last. Her off-the-pace style won’t help her at this distance, and her 5 seconds and 2 thirds in 9 lifetime starts makes me think she is a best used underneath in your exotics.
Race 6
Those who have run have shown little in the second maiden turf sprint on today’s card, but we’ll give two second time starters the best chance to move forward today. Both Decorator (12) and Rate of Exchange (4) debuted in the same race back in December. While they both made up good ground in the stretch, the late pace and final time were very slow. They both, however, have every right to move forward in their second starts. Both have worked well since. None of the first time starters are especially intriguing, but Honest Cause (10) is at least worth a mention with these. She sports good breeding, a trainer who does reasonably well with these, works are decent, and lures Talamo.
Race 7
Here’s a morning line favorite I like. Golden Doc A (4) exits a very fast heat, missing by a head, in a race that set a new track record for 7F. She should once again have some early speed to close into, and with only seven horses entered, should be able to avoid traffic problems. Actually, Lovely Isle (3) might go postward as the favorite. Lot’s to talk about here. New trainer (Frankel), new jock (Flores), new track, new surface, going two two turns for the first time. I think she’s good, but she’ll have to be real good to keep the Doc from passing her late. Beyond these two, I think its really wide open. One filly I’m not putting near the top of my tickets is Grace Anatomy (7). She was unable to make a winning move in a rather sluggish race last out, and I think this winner of one lifetime, will still be looking for her second victory after this is all over.
Race 8
The two shortest prices on the morning line in the G2 San Antonio belong to a pair of very talented, but vulnerable horses. Hard to be too critical of Awesome Gem’s (4) third place finish in the BC Classic. However, there is a long and growing list of horses who have come back from the BC to flop in their next race, and Craig Dollase is not especially noted for his work with layoff horses. Student Council (8) returns from a disappointing trip (way) back East in the Japan Cup last November. Before that, he took down both the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup and the G1 Pacific Classic, and is working very well for the journeymen team of Cerin-Migliore. Sweetnorthernsaint (6) is also working very well for his Santa Anita debut, and will offer value at the windows. Rathor (7) had a very nice tune-up for this, over the turf. He has won over the AW before, and if he moves forward second off the layoff for Frankel, the longest shot on the morning line could inject some growth hormones into your exotics.
Race 9
Mast Track (6) looks like he’s primed for a top effort. He finished two lengths behind Monterey Jazz in his last, and that one went on to dominate the G2 Strub in gate to wire fashion. It didn’t appear that career best effort, which was over 6 weeks ago, was too taxing, as Mast Track came right back to train regularly for Frankel. Incriminate (8) raced well here at Oak Tree, and looks to be going good right now. KrugerPark (9) also fits well with these, and both should be making their presence felt late. Unfortunatley for Towzee (1), he drew the rail, otherwise I would have given this second time US starter an even bigger shot. Asperity (3) is sure to draw attention at the windows. I think he is better suited to routing, and that Drysdale has got other things in mind down the road. Even though, these last two both still need to be included in your exotics.
Race 10
The first day back at the races comes to an end with your usual Pick 4 and Pick 6 busting Maiden Claimer. I guess that’s why they call it gambling. Big Bad Al (1) has all the ingredients to take down top honors here – except one – he’s the morning line favorite. Al drops into MC ranks, gets a positive jock switch to Flores, and had traffic woes to blame for his mediocre debut. Art Sherman is overdue, and sends out interesting first time starter Nymegen Pita(11) here. Keep your eyes on the tote, in the win and exotic will pays, and on the monitor. If you catch a glimpse of Art in the owner’s box, it would be a very good sign. Quityerbellyaching (9) drops back down to a realistic level, and figures in the thick of things. Several more all have a shot, including Cavanaugh (14),Kissin the Cobra (3) and River Royal(8). Wide, wide open.