nobeyerspls
02-07-2008, 10:33 AM
Chalky - Today we're adding to our bag of tricks - we're picking losers.
Longball - You mean like the guy at the track they call Backwards Ben? He says that you don't need to pick a winner in a ten horse field, you just find the nine losers and bet the one that's left. He even walks into the track backwards for luck.
Chalky - No. I mean that we're each going to identify a vulnerable favorite, a lock of the day, and a longshot. The vulnerable favorite is the loser. Since you finished handicapping three hours ago you can look through your selections and I'll go first. My lock of the day is #6 Armament in GP's 2nd. He's dropping off a solid score and even if he bounces from that high, he can handle these. My longshot is #6 Cross the Atlantic (12-1) in the next race. He looks like he's moving up but class may not be established yet. The jockey/trainer stats are solid and he's had good foundation works. My vulnerable favorite is #4 Sunshine Lover in the 5th. She's the consensus best bet off of a sharp drop. When they drop below the claimed price I see it as a negative.
Longball - I'll move to the 4th at Aqueduct for my lock. #1a Sportin' Man is a 2nd lifetime start with three solid works following the opener. He broke last in that race but should be closer early in this one. I'm hoping that they scratch his entrymate so the odds will be better. I have two longshots in the same race. In the 2nd at GP both #8 Quartier Blanc and #12 Silversandsoftime are wakeup candidates at huge odds. My vulnerable favorite Is Armament, your lock in that race. From 16k nw3l to 10k open is not much of a drop and a 5yo with only 17 starts says that there are problems. As a 5yo horse he has physiology working against him with the tendency of those to bulk up. Only one slow work off the win over a month ago is a red flag. There are several in here who can run with him, The 5,7, and 9 in particular. This could be my first shot at a ten cent super.
Chalky - Any of your horses beating mine in that race would be like, like, .....
Longball - Like the Giants winning the superbowl?
Longball - You mean like the guy at the track they call Backwards Ben? He says that you don't need to pick a winner in a ten horse field, you just find the nine losers and bet the one that's left. He even walks into the track backwards for luck.
Chalky - No. I mean that we're each going to identify a vulnerable favorite, a lock of the day, and a longshot. The vulnerable favorite is the loser. Since you finished handicapping three hours ago you can look through your selections and I'll go first. My lock of the day is #6 Armament in GP's 2nd. He's dropping off a solid score and even if he bounces from that high, he can handle these. My longshot is #6 Cross the Atlantic (12-1) in the next race. He looks like he's moving up but class may not be established yet. The jockey/trainer stats are solid and he's had good foundation works. My vulnerable favorite is #4 Sunshine Lover in the 5th. She's the consensus best bet off of a sharp drop. When they drop below the claimed price I see it as a negative.
Longball - I'll move to the 4th at Aqueduct for my lock. #1a Sportin' Man is a 2nd lifetime start with three solid works following the opener. He broke last in that race but should be closer early in this one. I'm hoping that they scratch his entrymate so the odds will be better. I have two longshots in the same race. In the 2nd at GP both #8 Quartier Blanc and #12 Silversandsoftime are wakeup candidates at huge odds. My vulnerable favorite Is Armament, your lock in that race. From 16k nw3l to 10k open is not much of a drop and a 5yo with only 17 starts says that there are problems. As a 5yo horse he has physiology working against him with the tendency of those to bulk up. Only one slow work off the win over a month ago is a red flag. There are several in here who can run with him, The 5,7, and 9 in particular. This could be my first shot at a ten cent super.
Chalky - Any of your horses beating mine in that race would be like, like, .....
Longball - Like the Giants winning the superbowl?