Playable or Unplayable Races

[Investorater]

I'm certain this topic has been talked to death in past threads though perhaps new members can chime in here.Just the other day at a Chinese restaurant my fortune cookie read Luck happens when hard work meets opportunity.I pondered on this for awhile and believe that for the Horseplayer the reverse is true.Luck happens opportunity meets hard work.What may I ask are some of your first considerations in determining a race as playable? I'd like to hear from anyone and thanking all in advance.

[firstofftheclaim]

Chances are if it's Mountaineer, it ain't playable.

[DeanT]

I thought about this the other day when sitting here and playing several tracks - just messing around really.

Namely I need an angle to make a perceived good value spot-play, or a percieved pace scenario that I like and feel confident in, or a track bias that I think I have found. Otherwise I tend to sit the race out.

Take that with a grain of salt as my roi was negative last year. In fact, maybe you'd want to do the opposite :D

[Overlay]

To me, it's not a race's conditions or anything about the past performances of the entrants that make it playable or unplayable. I think that it's possible to take any race and assign a probability of winning to the horses in it. Then the odds will determine playability, based on the presence of value.

[DeanT]

To me, it's not a race's conditions or anything about the past performances of the entrants that make it playable or unplayable. I think that it's possible to take any race and assign a probability of winning to the horses in it. Then the odds will determine playability, based on the presence of value.

Hey Overlay,

Yes, surely that is good advice, but we have chatted about that before many times as the poster alluded to. I took the question as, (or maybe I am just making it up in my own mind (:)))...... with literally 100 races to play on a Saturday, which of those do you choose to handicap with an odds line and spend your limited time on? Which races catch your eye? Which get the blood flowing as potential plays? Which ones do you skip over out of all the races out there to cap, as unplayable, and/or simply not worth your time?

For a heavily capitalized player it might be a deep field super race with a $1 min where he can pool hunt. For a chalk guy it might be a short field with two speed pressers and 4 closers where he will hammer the speed ex if it is paying more than $9...... Alan Woods might have got excited about deep field triple trio races. On and on.

What races do you handicap where it gets the creative juices flowing because you know your odds line will be good, and you have a potential score on your hands?

[nobeyerspls]

I'm certain this topic has been talked to death in past threads though perhaps new members can chime in here.Just the other day at a Chinese restaurant my fortune cookie read Luck happens when hard work meets opportunity.I pondered on this for awhile and believe that for the Horseplayer the reverse is true.Luck happens opportunity meets hard work.What may I ask are some of your first considerations in determining a race as playable? I'd like to hear from anyone and thanking all in advance.

Any race with a vulnerable favorite is playable. For exotic players the crucial decision is whether to go vertical or horizontal. That 3/5 might be beatable but a 2nd place finish could ruin your trifecta. If you find the one that will beat him, do the races in sequence afford significant enough leverage?
This time of year horses with a very strong 2yo campaign are most vulnerable. The pool of competitors has grown much larger and they are often running at distances and tracks that are new to them.

[Overlay]

What races do you handicap where it gets the creative juices flowing because you know your odds line will be good, and you have a potential score on your hands?

Races I especially like (and they can occur in any category of conditions, distances, class, etc.) are those where my top-rated horse is also the greatest proportional overlay according to my line. I've found that I can generally explain to my satisfaction that the situation is occurring not because my horse is "dead on the board", but because the public has overrated one or more factors for one or more of the other horses in the race. The degree of overlay on my top horse in that situation also provides a greater margin of error/safety.

[shanta]

I've learned a lot from Jim G regarding this subject man.

He looks at races to find vulnerable/false favs and is quite good at it. I know a lot of others are doing this but for whatever reason Jim's posts kind of hit home and made me start looking at some things more closely.

[cmoore]

I like to concentrate on Maiden races. Especially when the 2 year olds come out. There's always overlays.

[bigmack]

I stay away from races where the spread of loot for the top 3 betting choices is tight. I've seen far too many players lick their chops on a play in races that are just too contentious to single or even squeeze profit out of Ex's or dutching.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Hey Overlay,

Yes, surely that is good advice, but we have chatted about that before many times as the poster alluded to. I took the question as, (or maybe I am just making it up in my own mind (:)))...... with literally 100 races to play on a Saturday, which of those do you choose to handicap with an odds line and spend your limited time on? Which races catch your eye? Which get the blood flowing as potential plays? Which ones do you skip over out of all the races out there to cap, as unplayable, and/or simply not worth your time?

For a heavily capitalized player it might be a deep field super race with a $1 min where he can pool hunt. For a chalk guy it might be a short field with two speed pressers and 4 closers where he will hammer the speed ex if it is paying more than $9...... Alan Woods might have got excited about deep field triple trio races. On and on.

What races do you handicap where it gets the creative juices flowing because you know your odds line will be good, and you have a potential score on your hands?

I play turf races from 7 1/2 furlongs to 2 miles, pulling up the pps on just those races. I handicap, throwing the pps of the races I'm clueless about in the trash can. Then I make my odds line on the remaining races. When I get 1 1/2 times my true line on a horse I like, I bet one unit to win and one unit to place.

Maybe this isn't for everybody but it works for me.

If you are good at maidens or sprints or conditioned claimers, why bet on the other races? We have a plethora of opportunities every day. Just play what you are good at. You'll have plenty of action and much better results at the end of the year.

[dav4463]

I am pretty much a longshot player only. I never know where my best profit will come from. Sometimes I expect a longshot to come out of the 12-horse field of $5000 claimers and the chalk romps home easily and in that 8 horse Stakes race featuring a high profile superstar horse, my longshot pops at 20-1 odds.

Like Overlay said, I just handicap a couple of tracks and wait for the odds to tell me who to bet.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Horses in a race are playable if they are consistent, not in over their heads, and not an underlay. That makes the race playable.

[dav4463]

Every race is playable for somebody.

I prefer inconsistent horses because that's where longshots have a better chance.

I like horses whose last race or two was terrible or a decent horse with a 3%trainer to drive up the price. How about a shipper from Nowhere downs who gets no respect at a major circuit, but the numbers show he can run with anybody in the race? At 20-1, I'll take a shot.

[Robert Fischer]

http://professionalhorseplayer.blogspot.com/2008/02/get-good-ball-to-hit-ted-williams-1.html

^ "get a good race to hit"

[DeanT]

What a cool thread. Racing is pari-mutuel chess, yet several of us play on different chess boards. I love that about racing!

Thanks for the link Robert.

[DanG]

Good topic Invest;

This isn’t a sexy answer and if your not already doing it you can’s apply for months…but…proper record keeping will expose what situations are profitable.

We all have strengths and weaknesses.

My strength is turf racing, the younger the better. My weakness is low level claimers where a player with natural poker skills probably has an edge. Ken Massa favors Mdn Claimers although he’s also very good at high class stakes.

How many years did I attend Monmouth (Like we all did at our local circuit) and scrutinize that 9 race card like a final exam. Wasn’t really aware that I was hemorrhaging money in the state-bred races because with only 9 opportunities I swung at every pitch. (Good analogy Robert)

Now, unless we live in an area that is highly restrictive we have no excuse not to cherry pick. Detailed records are not the glamour part of the process, but there extremely under-rated to your bottom line.

[phatbastard]

...maybe its due to a lack of sophisticated handicapping acumen or that i'm able to easily see the opportunity.... but my preferred plays can come in any type race, at any venue...

i can say with certainty that cold or short part wheels in exactas are most profitable..though i hate the vig i pay it works for me,,,


dominate speed horse, with less than stellar stalkers and some or hopefully only one sustained type...regardless of odds

if i had to pick one category, it would be conditioned claimers at fairly low levels

now if i could only forget the rest of the wagers...still an action junkie after 40+ years :bang:

[cees with dees]

I thought about this the other day when sitting here and playing several tracks - just messing around really.

Namely I need an angle to make a perceived good value spot-play, or a percieved pace scenario that I like and feel confident in, or a track bias that I think I have found. Otherwise I tend to sit the race out.

Take that with a grain of salt as my roi was negative last year. In fact, maybe you'd want to do the opposite :D

Aside from the last two negative sentences, I couldn't have said what Dean did any better.
That's exactly how I approach any race card.
Well done Deano and strike the negativity. It's like my friend Gary says: "Just keep setting the table, eventually you have to eat".
Ben

[kenwoodallpromos]

Horses in a race are playable if they are consistent, not in over their heads, and not an underlay. That makes the race playable.
I have only answered what makes certain races playable; others could very well be playable also depending on the various handicapping factors. Generally I would say IMO factors of the stated race conditions, those affecting the track directly, and those that make certain horses out of their element or non-competitive are major factors as to the playabity of some other races.

[Investorater]

Many thanks,for your responses and keep on posting.I have concluded that luck happens when opportunity meets hard work and vice versa because ultimately it is the final odds that determine a go-no go situation.Being primarily a paper and pen handicapper,at times I'll make just 1-one-hundred dollar bet on 2 horses to win and the entry apportionment percentage could be anywhere between 50-50 through 85-15 depending of course on the odds between the 2.Unplayable races are those where several horses seem very closely matched in ability or the race will attract erratic horses according to the conditions,or there are too many unknown factors.A playable race for me is one where all horses have pp's which are complete enough to enable me to make a very good estimate as to how they may be expected to perform in the coming race.

[badcompany]

I usually play races cold. I'm not a big fan of boxing and spreading the money around. So, for a race to be playable, I need to have a good feel for how it's gonna go. If I can come up with several different scenarios, it's usually a pass.

[Marshall Bennett]

Most major New York tracks seem more consistant than elsewhere though I've seen Saratoga really get fast when large purse stakes races are run . I do better handicapping 6 to 7 furlong races . Anything over a mile seems to complicate matters for me , especially when horses ship in . I never did worth a damn betting on So. California tracks and since they've added syntetic courses ,
I avoid them completely . I only live an hour from Sam Houston , but never go !!

[porkchop]

I keep records, know my strengths and weaknesses have a few automatic situations and many days I make only one play all day. Play only races that you are comfortable with and feel that you have an advantage over the huddled masses. Value is in the eye of the beholder every one has different situations that provide them with value, anderon finds it in the tote board , longshot players look for vulnerable favorites, I look for plays that have a proven positive roi for me . Every one takes a different approach and any one that shows a profit over a period of time sees a playable race in a different context. A wise man once told me if you go to the track without patience, perserverance and a plan your just another player building up the pools for the ones who do. Play the races that you have an edge in and only get involved with the type of wager that you have a confidence with.

[Robert Fischer]

What a cool thread. Racing is pari-mutuel chess, yet several of us play on different chess boards. I love that about racing!

Thanks for the link Robert.

thanks Dean

Without totally revealing one of my core strategies, I will say that I will, often select a value race based upon nominations and/or entries. Of course you still want a favorable morning line, and you want the public to wager to your favor.

[DeanT]

Races I especially like (and they can occur in any category of conditions, distances, class, etc.) are those where my top-rated horse is also the greatest proportional overlay according to my line. I've found that I can generally explain to my satisfaction that the situation is occurring not because my horse is "dead on the board", but because the public has overrated one or more factors for one or more of the other horses in the race. The degree of overlay on my top horse in that situation also provides a greater margin of error/safety.
Do you keep stats on that Overlay? i.e. if you have a horse capped at 33% and he goes off at a whopping 4-1 how you do versus you having that horse still be a green light bet at only 5-2?

Do you ever worry if your line is so out of whack that you missed something?

This isn’t a sexy answer and if your not already doing it you can’s apply for months…but…proper record keeping will expose what situations are profitable.

:ThmbUp: on that for me Dan. I also think that people gloss over their specific bets. Places like Ian's allow you to crunch ROI numbers by bet type. I thought I was a super superfecta player, I honestly did, but after about six months of tracking I found I was a loser. Yes, it is a lower hit rate bet and I am not one to take one unless I can slide a longer shot on the ticket, but still I am 100% sure I was a losing player with them without changing strategy. I immediately changed my thoughts about those bets. I was delusional about them!

From the more ways to skin a cat file I see on Kassa's blog he had a green light play on a horse to bet to show, which he thought 1-2 was odds value. Then for another bet he seeks an 8-1 shot to green light. To me that is what makes a good player as well - not being afraid to look for value whether it is a 1-2 show bet, or an 8-1 longshot!

[DanG]

I thought I was a super superfecta player, I honestly did, but after about six months of tracking I found I was a loser. Yes, it is a lower hit rate bet and I am not one to take one unless I can slide a longer shot on the ticket, but still I am 100% sure I was a losing player with them without changing strategy. I immediately changed my thoughts about those bets. I was delusional about them!

Well said Dean and it’s not easy to look at reality sometimes. I would have sworn I was ahead on off-dirt as a rule, but once I got really into it…I might as well gift wrap the cash and mail it to everyone playing against me.

http://www.taylorgifts.com/images/p3745b.jpg

[DeanT]

Well said Dean and it’s not easy to look at reality sometimes. I would have sworn I was ahead on off-dirt as a rule, but once I got really into it…I might as well gift wrap the cash and mail it to everyone playing against me.

http://www.taylorgifts.com/images/p3745b.jpg

What did you do, try and get better at them or quit them?

I was really bad at supers, but I fixed them with some hard work (then I scrapped them again for the most part when fractional super betting came in). I was really bad at pick 3's (I knew that all along I think), and I just scrapped them, because frankly I had no hope in hell to get over 0.80.

Live and learn!

[DanG]

What did you do, try and get better at them or quit them?

I was really bad at supers, but I fixed them with some hard work (then I scrapped them again for the most part when fractional super betting came in). I was really bad at pick 3's (I knew that all along I think), and I just scrapped them, because frankly I had no hope in hell to get over 0.80.

Live and learn!
Dean,

I spent more time trying to figure them out than I’ll ever admit to. (Still do btw) I play them in NY because I have a handle on the shoe information and a few other nuggets, but nation wide it’s been terrible.

I know another thread is touching on pace, position and that age old discussion. Many say you can’t ‘predict position with any precision so why try, but a big part of what I do is just that. In real wet conditions that part of my edge seems to floats down stream.

You should be commended for admitting something is gouging your wallet. Thousands of players go their entire lives in a form a denial. (BTW: I’m not talking about the guy / gal who bust their butt all week and plays on weekends. If I only got to the track one day a week for recreation, I’m firing both barrels when I park my car!) :jump:

[The Bit]

I'm certain this topic has been talked to death in past threads though perhaps new members can chime in here.Just the other day at a Chinese restaurant my fortune cookie read Luck happens when hard work meets opportunity.I pondered on this for awhile and believe that for the Horseplayer the reverse is true.Luck happens opportunity meets hard work.What may I ask are some of your first considerations in determining a race as playable? I'd like to hear from anyone and thanking all in advance.

I tend to play the higher class races better. I try to avoid cheap maidens and low level conditioned claimers. Though the one race I almost automatically pass on is non-winners of 2 claimers, at almost any level.

So long as I can find an angle and the odds are ok the race is playable.

[The Bit]

Any race run at Del Mar became unplayable, as well as most route races at Keeneland.

[Robert Fischer]

Any race run at Del Mar became unplayable, as well as most route races at Keeneland.

I know how you feel.

Sometimes at Del Mar or Keeneland now, they have a heavy favorite who did well on speed with dirt tracks, and then today on these poly tracks he could falter. Those HUGE tris and supers don't exactly bring back the nice dirt racing, but they are nice if you can catch a couple.

[The Bit]

I still dabbled at Keeneland, more so in sprint races than routes, but I completely gave up on Del Mar after about 3 weeks.