When 4 or more horses in a race....

[Great Communicator]

When 4 or more horses in a race have exited the same previous race - do you like these types of races/situations?

I don't really look forward to them, but on the other hand, it's the type of race where Joe Average is more comfortable putting bigger $$$ down on, because there is both form and previous competition to (mis)guide him. When Joe Average is willing to bet his share, opportunity arises....but I am wary of these situations. I'd still prefer that every horse came out of a different race or even from different tracks. Any thoughts?

[cnollfan]

I look for what might be different this time. Favorite situation is when there was a speed duel in the previous race that knocked both speed horses off the board and one of the duel participants does not return for the rematch. The remaining front-runner, having lost to many of the same horses last time, is usually a bettable price with a good chance to turn the tables.

I also look for things like which horses worked out in the interim vs. which did not, which horses are earlier in their form cycle, and overemphasis by the betting crowd on finish position last time when there was not much difference in beaten lengths (e.g. 3rd beaten 3 goes off at 5-2, 6th beaten 4 goes off at 15-1).

[eastie]

2 scenarios. if I hate the race, I just toss all of them out, if not I will use the ones who ran the worst. Good system for me that has produced many scores.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I would not bet the last winner, underlay and a target.

[classhandicapper]

One thing I can tell you is that if A beat B in the same race and they are both facing another serious contender (call him C) and he happens to look as good as B on paper, people will tend to bet the "B" and "C" differently in the win and exacta pools.

People tend to have more confidence in their evaluations of horses exiting the same race than they do in their evaluations of new horses.

[The Bit]

I like playing this type of race, especially at the mid and lower claiming levels because people almost always overbet the horse that beat the others or won last time. They only look at the program or Form. This is where watching a few replays, trainer patterns, track biases or anything that can turn the tables can be profitable. I especially like watching replays and comparing trips in these types of races.

[46zilzal]

Tandems. The winners are going to try the same thing again and the also's will change. Advantage to change, kind of like a political race.

[Tom]

How do they change if thier running styles are hard wired?

[46zilzal]

How do they change if thier running styles are hard wired?
Break aggressively....their styles do not change that much. It's' all about the early pace.

[First_Place]

Can anyone say "Tandem"...or "Reversal" horses?

FP

[Robert Fischer]

A bunch of good points.

I look for the situation where the better horse didn't win last out. Maybe 1/6th? of the time you can accurately see something like that and go after it. The public will back the last race winner, so you have value in your horse.

Sometimes it can be as simple as a change in the track configuration or the way the track is playing or the jockey. There is this great speed jockey and a colt who never went wire-wire in his life, won on a clear lead on the pace last out, &today their is a change to a decent jockey but he is a rallying type...

Sometimes it is something subtle like a trip or pace problem that one of the horses ran into last time.

What I don't like is when the horses have clearly established their order of dominance, and the public sees it as well. Then you just start recycling lack of value and it is hard to justify a play.