Comprehensive Odds Line - READ THIS!

[john messina]

Hi all,

Today I'll be posting oddsline for the following tracks:

AQU, BEU, FG, GP, LRL, TUP

I've also decided to answer questions about the oddsline, including
wagering strategies, wager constructs. If you have a question, post it.
I will do my best to answer it.

http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com

Regards,

[Pcon04]

john
were you the professor who had a website by that name??

pcon

[john messina]

john
were you the professor who had a website by that name??

pcon

No, I don't have a website available to the public.

Regards,

[vanilla]

Hi all,

Today I'll be posting oddsline for the following tracks:

AQU, BEU, FG, GP, LRL, TUP

I've also decided to answer questions about the oddsline, including
wagering strategies, wager constructs. If you have a question, post it.
I will do my best to answer it.

http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com (http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com/)

Regards,

Thank you John,

Did you know that there is no odds line showing for Race 9 at AQ ?

have a good one !

[john messina]

Thank you John,

Did you know that there is no odds line showing for Race 9 at AQ ?

have a good one !

I couldn't get a good line on the race, so I left it out.

Regards,

[vanilla]

Yes, I have a question...

Is weather factored into your daily odds line? It is a sloppy track with ice pellets coming down at AQ today.

Thank you

[john messina]

Yes, I have a question...

Is weather factored into your daily odds line? It is a sloppy track with ice pellets coming down at AQ today.

Thank you

NO!..

[fight]

any sa today ?? ty

[john messina]

any sa today ?? ty

Did you hit the huge overlay in the 9th yesterday?

[njcurveball]

Did you hit the huge overlay in the 9th yesterday?

You definitely have all the sides covered!

Top choice #9 goes off 2.8 that is an overlay.
2nd choice #5 goes off 19.1 another overlay.
3rd choice #1 goes off 13.5 another overlay.
4th choice #3 goes off 11.2 another overaly.

2nd place finisher #6 (huge underlay)
3rd place finisher #4 (huge underlay) *but a dark horse*

C'mon now! Certainly you also had the exacta, super, tri, high five, pick 3 and 5 out of 6 in the pick 6! :jump:

Santa Anita 01-31 Race #9 (8.0f Dirt Mdn Spec Wgt)


PN W PN W-P PN W-P-S PN W PN P PN S
-- - -- --- -- ----- -- - -- - -- -
9 1.5 9 0.6 9 0.3 9 1.5 3 2.9 3 3.1

5 3.7 3 1.7 3 0.6 5 3.7 9 3.3 4 5.5

1 4.4 1 2.0 1 1.3 1 4.4 1 5.7 2 6.1

3 7.3 5 2.1 5 1.5 3 7.3 5 8.1 9 7.0

6 32.9 4 7.3 4 2.6 6 32.9 4 9.9 1 8.7

4 33.3 6 9.3 2 3.6 4 33.3 6 13.7 6 9.4

2 75.9 2 12.6 6 4.2 2 75.9 2 15.5 5 12.6

10 99 10 23.9 10 8.9 10 99 10 31.6 10 15.5

7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99

[john messina]

You definitely have all the sides covered!

Top choice #9 goes off 2.8 that is an overlay.
2nd choice #5 goes off 19.1 another overlay.
3rd choice #1 goes off 13.5 another overlay.
4th choice #3 goes off 11.2 another overaly.

2nd place finisher #6 (huge underlay)
3rd place finisher #4 (huge underlay) *but a dark horse*

C'mon now! Certainly you also had the exacta, super, tri, high five, pick 3 and 5 out of 6 in the pick 6! :jump:

Santa Anita 01-31 Race #9 (8.0f Dirt Mdn Spec Wgt)


PN W PN W-P PN W-P-S PN W PN P PN S
-- - -- --- -- ----- -- - -- - -- -
9 1.5 9 0.6 9 0.3 9 1.5 3 2.9 3 3.1

5 3.7 3 1.7 3 0.6 5 3.7 9 3.3 4 5.5

1 4.4 1 2.0 1 1.3 1 4.4 1 5.7 2 6.1

3 7.3 5 2.1 5 1.5 3 7.3 5 8.1 9 7.0

6 32.9 4 7.3 4 2.6 6 32.9 4 9.9 1 8.7

4 33.3 6 9.3 2 3.6 4 33.3 6 13.7 6 9.4

2 75.9 2 12.6 6 4.2 2 75.9 2 15.5 5 12.6

10 99 10 23.9 10 8.9 10 99 10 31.6 10 15.5

7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99 7 99

And your question is???

[fight]

oh ya ty :jump: :jump:

[john messina]

SA and Turf is up

Regards,

[fight]

sa not up john

[john messina]

sa not up john

It's there now. Let me know if there is a problem.

[Jake]

Hi all,

Today I'll be posting oddsline for the following tracks:

AQU, BEU, FG, GP, LRL, TUP

I've also decided to answer questions about the oddsline, including
wagering strategies, wager constructs. If you have a question, post it.
I will do my best to answer it.

http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com

Regards,

Having read your posts, I have no clue how to read your data. Sorry, how about a A-B-C explanation of your oddsline again and what it means for horses finishing 1-2-3. Understand it's not from a lack of effort in looking seriously at your numbers.

Jake

[john messina]

Having read your posts, I have no clue how to read your data. Sorry, how about a A-B-C explanation of your oddsline again and what it means for horses finishing 1-2-3. Understand it's not from a lack of effort in looking seriously at your numbers.

Jake

Starting from left to right.

PN -> Program NUmber
W -> Projected Win Odds
W-P -> Projected Odds of Placing 1st or 2nd
W-P-S -> Projected Odds of Placing 1st, 2nd or 3rd

P -> Projected Odds of Placing 2nd
S -> Projected Odds of Placing 3rd

Some examples:

If you interest is to bet show, your data of interest would be the W-P-S column.

If your interest were to bet exactas, your data of interest would be the W and P columns. However, for purposes of boxing, you may want to refer to the W-P column. The proper use of the W and P odds will give you the fair exacta odds.

Trifecta odds can be determined from the W, P, S columns.

Essentially you should exploit the exploitable. As I just did by crushing the 7th at GP( That's for you NJ!!!)

Don't hesitate to ask, if it's still unclear to you.

Regards,

[njcurveball]

Essentially you should exploit the exploitable. ,

Funny this is exactly what I think you are doing here. :lol:

[jeebus1083]

Do you have an oddsline for Charles Town tonight?

[MarkH45]

I use the reports in addition to my own handicapping. If anyone has a problem with his reports then don't use them. It's that simple.:) I, like many handicappers, look for any information I feel gives me an edge and that's what these reports do for me. Plus, yesterday 1st race at Aqueduct I was running late so I just did a $4 tri box on John's 1st 3 picks in the W column and hit over $1000 and hit the exacta for $142 :jump:

NJ- you should post that, instead of negative sh*t

:bang:

STOP BITCHING

[wegoosewe]

so lower the decimal rating.. such as aqueduct race 1 today.

5 1.6 5 0.6 5 0.3 is a better horse then the

4 1.9 4 1.0 6 0.4

[john messina]

so lower the decimal rating.. such as aqueduct race 1 today.

5 1.6 5 0.6 5 0.3 is a better horse then the

4 1.9 4 1.0 6 0.4


The numbers represents odds (for ex 2.1 -> $2.10 to $1)

[wegoosewe]

so this basically determines if there is an underlay or an overlay

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd like to know when the Comprehensive Odds Line will be going on sale at a website near me?

[john messina]

I'd like to know when the Comprehensive Odds Line will be going on sale at a website near me?

In the year 2525!!

[Cheap Speed]

Is the same factor used on every race to calculate the odds line?

Do you create your own "rating" for that factor or use BRIS, DRF, etc?

How do you do odds for FTS?

How do you form your exacta bets?

How about a couple of example races and how you would play them?

[john messina]

Is the same factor used on every race to calculate the odds line?

Do you create your own "rating" for that factor or use BRIS, DRF, etc?

How do you do odds for FTS?

How do you form your exacta bets?

How about a couple of example races and how you would play them?

Is the same factor used on every race to calculate the odds line?
Yes. The same factor independent of track conditions, jockeys, trainers, distances, surfaces, tracks (minor or major), energy distributions, post position, track models, biases, class, money earned, recency, form, etc.

Do you create your own "rating" for that factor or use BRIS, DRF, etc?
Yes. It is my own rating.

How do you do odds for FTS?
I don't. I set all FTS at 99-1. Although there are times I will use them in the exotics. I'll explain more later.

How do you form your exacta bets?
Several ways. Using the win column and place column. For the really small player with a limited bankroll. w1 w2/p1,p2,p3. You can determine the fair price for an exaction combination by the following equation

Exacta Odds = (w-odds +1)x(p-odds +1)

Exacta Boxes = the top 3 or 4 horses in the W-P columns
Once again computing the fair odds from the w, p columns

A similar approach for trifectas:
Basic approach

w1 w2 /p1, p2, p3/s1,s2, s3, s4,s5 ( always include w1, w2 in the 3rd spot)

If w3 is an an overlay, include w3 in the first slot as well as the 3rd slot.
If either w1, w2 or w3 are huge overlays use the W-P-S down to and
including any horse listed at 5-1 or less.

ex: w1,w2,w3/w-p-s/w-p-s
and w-p-s/w1, w2, w3/w-p-s

The above approaches are for individuals with small bankrolls and are very simplistic, but effective.

A more professional approach ( I really didn't intend to go here ) and one which I use:

Solve the wagering problem by a systems approach... this will include w,p,s, exactas, trifectas, and superfectas ( This might include terms and some math you might not be familiar with). I'll explain it with a simple example.

Let's say, you are interested in betting 3 exacta combinations as well 2 win bets (you can include any number of wagers, including, place and show, trifectas, and superfectas...the computations become more complex)

you can set up a matrix, A, in the following way:

odds w1 -1 -1 -1 -1

-1 odds w2 -1 -1 -1

-1 -1 odds ex1 -1 -1

-1 -1 -1 odds ex2 -1

-1 -1 -1 -1 odds ex3

odds are toteboard odds.

Now set up a profit vector ( this profit vector is to be established by the projected odds generated by the oddsline ( demand more profit on larger overlays)

So, now we have the following equation:
[A][Bet size] = [Profit]
solving for [Bet size] = [A] (inverse) [Profit] will tell you how much to bet on each exacta combo and win bets.

You can go a step further and constrain outlay and maximize profit ( I believe that is beyond the scope of this forum... it would require a Simplex Method approach).

Essentially my approach is to exploit any and every positive advantage in the race.

Back to more basic advice, if w1 is an overlay bet it.
If w2 is an overlay, bet it.

If you want to know the fair odds of a horse finishing first or second look at the W-P column, and for in the money finishes, look at W-P-S column.

Overlays exist in more than one area, determine your goal and the wagering strategy and stick with it.

Back to first time starters. I never use them in the win and place slots (I'll accept the risk). However, I will often use them in the show slot.

I tried balancing a simple wagering approach and also provide you with an insight on how structure my wagers. I haven't included all the options in the wagering model. It would be too complex and it is not something I would like to disclose. I've given you enough to work with.

Regards,

[formula_2002]

Hi all,

Today I'll be posting oddsline for the following tracks:

AQU, BEU, FG, GP, LRL, TUP

I've also decided to answer questions about the oddsline, including
wagering strategies, wager constructs. If you have a question, post it.
I will do my best to answer it.

http://optimusracingnetwork.netfirms.com

Regards,

John, how did you test your odds line paradigm?

[john messina]

John, how did you test your odds line paradigm?

By Chronological Backtracking techniques and real life tests going forward

Regards,

[PaceAdvantage]

In the year 2525!!Well then, I better start saving my pennies now!

[imanatm]

Seems like he had some nice winners on top for the 2 days I looked at.. His chalk was right on. Tell me this .. if you dont find an overlay in the top two do you go down the list and look for extreme overlays? To like 4th position? Do you bet th ose to show or place ?

[john messina]

Seems like he had some nice winners on top for the 2 days I looked at.. His chalk was right on. Tell me this .. if you dont find an overlay in the top two do you go down the list and look for extreme overlays? To like 4th position? Do you bet th ose to show or place ?

Amazing!!! Someone actually looked at the oddsline objectively. There are times that I will look further down, especially if I have a cluster of horses in the W-P-S column that are under 5-1. One can find some very nice trifecta possibilities. My show bets are track dependent. I will not bet show at CT, but I will at AQU.

Any race can be exploited, especially if you analyze it as a system. Find the value and bet, W, P, S, WP, WPS, exactas, tris, superfectas, etc. The information is there.

If you can't or don't want to look at the race in a systematic approach, select a form of wagering you are comfortable with, and use the relevant information provided in that area.

Use the information to supplement your own process, if you like. There are numerous possibilities.

If I can be of any further assistance, let me know.

Regards,

[imanatm]

If you have your second and third picks going off at overlaid odds , then you would key them first and second and picks 1.2.3.4.5 under them in both exacta slots or just key the overlays. What does dark horse mean...How do you use him in with the overlays from picks 1 and 2.

[imanatm]

Have you looked at your roi on playing your overlaid chalk that you rate below odds of 1.0. Also. How would one use the place price overlay?? Should we just guess what it would probably be paying to place or is that for figuring exactas only. Im sure thats right.. thanks.

[john messina]

Have you looked at your roi on playing your overlaid chalk that you rate below odds of 1.0. Also. How would one use the place price overlay?? Should we just guess what it would probably be paying to place or is that for figuring exactas only. Im sure thats right.. thanks.

It's for figuring exactas. Projected place prices are listed under the W-P column.

[juanepstein]

any track that posts 7/1 or 9/1 shots should be watched.

7/1 and 9/1 is a signal for horses that are live and have a excellent chance of winning.

sounds crazy?!?!?

tonight- woodbine harness

1st- #3 finishline invader 7/1......already down to 3/1
3rd- #1 search mission 7/1
4th- #1 breeze knoll ty 7/1
.......#7 englebert 7/1
6th- #3 licorice twist
........#5 single step 7/1
7th- #6 dillman 7/1
.......#8 valentin elite 7/1
8th- #1 mighty gg 7/1
9th- #9 noellas desire 7/1
10th- #6 in shining armor 7/1
.........#7 dragons begone 7/1
11th- #2 southwind academy 7/1

good luck!