70% Winning Live Toteboard Spot Plays For Wed 1-30-08

[Anderon]

These selctions are derived from the live toteboard action that I monitor and will win on the average 70% of the time and return 25%-30% winning ROI. These selections however are mostly chalky. The recommended way to wager on these selections is to Win Only !! I personally flat wager the same amount on all the selections. These selections will generally win with ease.

There will be at times a long wait for a selection to become a qualified play and be posted, (sometimes an hour or two) so patience is a big part of this highly selective play.



Let's Get Profitable !! :ThmbUp:

[spicytomato]

what tracks you got in mind today:p

[Anderon]

I play all tracks that race thoroughbreds. :)

[Anderon]

Gulf 2nd....#6 at 4/5.....5 mtp

[Anderon]

Gulf 2nd....#6 at 4/5.....5 mtp

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Aqueduct now canceled for the day !!

[Anderon]

Laurel 4th....#4 at 3-1....6 mtp


*Make sure he goes off at 5/2 or better or it's a no wager !!

[Anderon]

Laurel 4th....#4 at 3-1....6 mtp


*Make sure he goes off at 5/2 or better or it's a no wager !!

No play as he went off at 7/2 !!

[Anderon]

Well nothing qualifying for me right now so patience is a key factor !! :cool:

[TexasDolly]

But only if you want to win !!

[ljb]

Well i'm playing the 10 horse at turfway 5-1

[ljb]

You are right PATIENCE is a virtue.

[Anderon]

It really is...believe me....everytime I think I want to play a horse because it's really close to what I'm looking for I'm so glad I don't because it very rarely wins and it just proves to me time and time again to just wait till it truly is a spot play by the qualifying factors. Not only that but my bankroll sure looks alot better at the end of the day !! :)

[Anderon]

But only if you want to win !!

Amen to that !! :ThmbUp:

[Anderon]

Beulah 9th....#2 at 4/5.....6 mtp

[TexasDolly]

Thanks my friend.
TD

[Anderon]

Beulah 9th....#2 at 4/5.....6 mtp

Winner....$3.00....$2.60....$2.10

[Anderon]

Thanks my friend.
TD

My pleasure TD !! :)

[ljb]

ya ain't gonna believe it. I stepped away from my puter for a few minutes and missed it.

[spicytomato]

theres another horse just around the bend



just wait on it

evening play is usually good:cool:

best of luck

play on:p

[Anderon]

Sorry about that LJB......:mad: :bang: You can't go wandering off now when it's close to post time.... how many times do I have to tell ya that young grasshopper !! :D

[Anderon]

theres another horse just around the bend



just wait on it

evening play is usually good:cool:

best of luck

play on:p

Thanks Spicy....let's see what tonight brings us. There is no play here at Gulf's last race, it's been a pretty slow day but only 1 win away from profit land so we'll get that tonight.

[Anderon]

Gulf 9th....#6 at 8/5....1 mtp


He just became playable !!

[spicytomato]

cool did the win on it


and already had a 6/1,2


thanks:kiss:

[Jake]

Anderon,

With great respect for your efforts here, this is within 5-10% variance given your average win odds. I'm not sure your tote board analysis is giving you any advantage over just playing any betdown of some x% over ML that goes off as the heavy favorite. You're hitting better than fair odds, but not enough to say anything valid. Having posted this, I love the manner in which you post your choices, and your growing bankroll. Hats off.

Jake

[Anderon]

That was a nasty finish as the #6 got clobbered by the horse going into the rail and losing the jockey....oh well can't handicap that stuff just part of the game.

[Anderon]

Anderon,

With great respect for your efforts here, this is within 5-10% variance given your average win odds. I'm not sure your tote board analysis is giving you any advantage over just playing any betdown of some x% over ML that goes off as the heavy favorite. You're hitting better than fair odds, but not enough to say anything valid. Having posted this, I love the manner in which you post your choices, and your growing bankroll. Hats off.

Jake

Not really sure what your getting here Jake but I think a 28% ROI (which is my average so far) is very valid no matter how you go about getting it and maintaining it.. :confused:

[Jake]

Not really sure what your getting here Jake but I think a 28% ROI (which is my average so far) is very valid no matter how you go about getting it and maintaining it.. :confused:

If you don't catch what I'm getting at here, that's really fine. No intentions of giving you any flack. Glad you found something that you feel works well for you.

Jakd

[Anderon]

If what your saying is that I'm not really doing that much better than someone playing a horse who's odds are at a certain percentage lower than his ML I respectfully disagree. I know that if you do that it will be very hard to hit a 65%-70% win ratio and a 28% ROI, the reason I say that is, been there done that and it has no consistancy. Let me know if you have any back data supporting a better win % and ROI % on this and I"m all ears. I'm not trying to be negative, but I've been thru just about all you can go thru on odds and toteboard scenarios.

I appreciate your comments and welcome them anytime.

[Anderon]

Well let's see what tonight brings us so we can get profitable for today !!

[Anderon]

Quick Update



3 - Plays


1 - Wins.......33.3%

0 - Place......33.3%

0 - Show......33.3%


1 / 3 ITM


Profits Per $2.00 to Win .......-$3.00

[TexasDolly]

Let's heead on down to victory lane.
TD

[Anderon]

Ok TD let's Roll !! :)

[spicytomato]

lets gooooooooooo!!:cool:

[whobet]

A Whobet live bet: Results(Quick (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/quick/DED013008USA4-EQB.html),Chart (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/DED013008USA4.pdf))

DED Race04
#9 FRIENDLY REBEL M/L=8-5

Jockey: MELANCON GERARD(20%)
Trainer: BOURGEOIS KEITH L(22%)
Conditions: CLAIMING
Distance: ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES(DIRT)
Purse: $7,500
DED Wx(AWS): 18:17 PM (30.04 - 46%)


__________________________________________________ _______________________________


Check out all of Whobet's picks (http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/)

[spicytomato]

good to see you here

please stay n play

spice;)

[whobet]

A Whobet live bet: Results(Quick (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/quick/CT013008USA4-EQB.html),Chart (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CT013008USA4.pdf))

CT Race04
#5 WE'RE ALL IN M/L=4-1

Jockey: DUNKELBERGER TRAVIS L(21%)
Trainer: TROMBETTA MICHAEL J(26%)
Conditions: MAIDEN CLAIMING
Distance: SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS(DIRT)
Purse: $15,000
CT Wx(AWS): 20:17 PM (30.17 - 36%)

BulletinBoard: You cannot CANCEL a bet at CT Race Track
Minimum Show Payoff=2.20, but needs 6 horses

__________________________________________________ _______________________________


Check out all of Whobet's picks (http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/)

[rcknhrse]

hey anderon what do you make of the fact in ded r 4 #9 has lower ex payoffs than the 2 .

i am anticipating that the 9 becomes fav late post time

[whobet]

Charles Town - Race 4

5 $6.00 $3.40 $3.00 Whobet Winner
1 . $4.00 $3.60
2 . . $7.20
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2 Exacta 5-1 $27.80
$1 Trifecta Box $78.70
$2 Trifecta 5-1-2 $157.40
$2 Quad/Superfecta 5-1-2-10 $509.80
$1 Quad/Superfecta Box $254.90
$2 Double 2/5 $34.60

[TexasDolly]

Thanks Who-Good call at CT
TD

[whobet]

hey anderon what do you make of the fact in ded r 4 #9 has lower ex payoffs than the 2 .

i am anticipating that the 9 becomes fav late post time


That's cause Whobet picked it, LOL

Go Anderon

[whobet]

See now it's 4/5, hope it wins,

You still here Anderon

[TexasDolly]

What do the numbers inside the brackets just right of the time mean ?
(30.04-36%) or similar
Thanks
TD

[whobet]

Now it's 3/5.

Pace must be getting alot of hits right now, LOL

[whobet]

What do the numbers inside the brackets just right of the time mean ?
(30.04-36%) or similar
Thanks
TD

Weather, BP and Humidity

[Anderon]

hey anderon what do you make of the fact in ded r 4 #9 has lower ex payoffs than the 2 .

i am anticipating that the 9 becomes fav late post time

He doesn't qualify on my numbers but could do good !!

[Anderon]

See now it's 4/5, hope it wins,

You still here Anderon

Yup......GO WHOBET !! :ThmbUp:

Nice goin !!

[rcknhrse]

hey anderon what do you make of the fact in ded r 4 #9 has lower ex payoffs than the 2 .

i am anticipating that the 9 becomes fav late post time
I wish i knew how often that was a positive sign.
looking at the ex board and seeing the 2nd choice having lower ex than the fav .
it as if the connections are hiding the money in the ex board ansd waiting to punch in the win tickets

[whobet]

Delta - Race 4
# Win Place Show
9 $3.20 $2.20 $2.10 Whobet Winner
2 . $3.20 $2.80
5 . . $5.20
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1 Exacta 9-2 $2.90
$1 Quinella 2-9 $2.10
$1 Trifecta 9-2-5 $19.90
$0 Quad/Superfecta 9-2-5-6 $7.47
$1 Pick-3 5/3/9 3 of 3 $51.30

[spicytomato]

what if you got two possibilities:eek:

toss the race and dont wager

or wager both

just askin thanks

[whobet]

what if you got two possibilities:eek:

toss the race and dont wager

or wager both

just askin thanks

Never bet against yourself

[Anderon]

I wish i knew how often that was a positive sign.
looking at the ex board and seeing the 2nd choice having lower ex than the fav .
it as if the connections are hiding the money in the ex board ansd waiting to punch in the win tickets

It's not a bad sign by any means but you certainly can't hang your hat on it. Been there done that as well.

[spicytomato]

thanks:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[whobet]

Never bet against yourself

As Anderon is learning,

and we all getta watch,

you need to have rules,

and never wavier from them,

and you can always adjust your rules,

but have a set of rules and bet only on your rules,

and track your bets.

Regards Whobet

[TexasDolly]

In the early 90's there were massive overlays in the win pools ,found by calculating the win odds from the exacta pools. A lot of money hiding was going on.
As computers and access to the betting pools became available those disappeared. There are any number of people who scan all pools and adjust
there bets to all exacta etc combos to the breakeven point and then rely on rebates to pay the way.
TD

[whobet]

There is a big FAV at DED race 5, #7, but I don't like it.

Also, CT Race 5, #4 , don't like

[Anderon]

I concur Who !!

[rcknhrse]

not much $ in my account this week so i am taking a shot at #7 at meadowlands at 24-1.doesnt belong in this thread but this is the thread i am watching right now

[Anderon]

You go Rock.....Go get'em !!

[whobet]

I concur Who !!


I got one more bet tonight,

Can you find it without looking at my selections,

do you have some handicapping of the days races,

or do you only look at the tote board Anderon

[spicytomato]

not much $ in my account this week so i am taking a shot at #7 at meadowlands at 24-1.doesnt belong in this thread but this is the thread i am watching right now


meadowlands


good luck to you:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

i havent studied them yet

[whobet]

not much $ in my account this week so i am taking a shot at #7 at meadowlands at 24-1.doesnt belong in this thread but this is the thread i am watching right now


Good luck Rock

[Anderon]

Only the toteboard and nothing else....and yes I can find your one last bet !!

[whobet]

Only the toteboard and nothing else....and yes I can find your one last bet !!


How without looking at my daily picks

[Anderon]

Charles Town 6th....# 3 at 1/1....5 mtp

[whobet]

Charles Town 6th....# 3 at 1/1....5 mtp


Nope that's not it, looks pretty good,

but would not bet

[Anderon]

Strong play for me !!

[rcknhrse]

not much $ in my account this week so i am taking a shot at #7 at meadowlands at 24-1.doesnt belong in this thread but this is the thread i am watching right now
took the wrong longshot
i liked 1-7-or 9
based on these numbers from simubet
9 wins it at 22-1
1 and 7 went off the chart at 75-1 each and ran like it

[Anderon]

Charles Town 6th....# 3 at 1/1....5 mtp

Winner....$3.80....$2.80....$2.20

[rcknhrse]

damm i should not have strayed awa y from the board .
nice 1 anderon .

[whobet]

Strong play for me !!


Charles Town - Race 6
# Win Place Show
3 $3.80 $2.80 $2.20 Anderon Winner
6 . $8.00 $4.80
9 . . $7.60
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2 Exacta 3-6 $25.40
$1 Trifecta 3-6-9 $140.10
$1 Quad/Superfecta 3-6-9-2 $998.80
$2 Double 1/3 $62.60

[Anderon]

You and I are going to have to have a talk, if you ever stray again that's it....over and done !! :D :lol:

[whobet]

You and I are going to have to have a talk, if you ever stray again that's it....over and done !! :D :lol:


I think his wallet will have that talk with him, LOL

[Anderon]

Ya, I have been there done that too.......aw heck, I guess I've done it all !! :D

[rcknhrse]

I have to go .Have to work for wages tomorow,because i am a BIG LOSER at the track.
trivia ?
Wht movie was the phrase "working for wages "used in a derogatory sense.
hint BLACK AND WHITE

[Anderon]

c ya Rock.......don't ever stray again....not sure on the trivia, but it must certainly have been before my time !! :D

[whobet]

A Whobet live bet: Results(Quick (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/quick/DED013008USA8-EQB.html),Chart (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/DED013008USA8.pdf))

DED Race08
#6 HIGH TAILIT M/L=1-1

Jockey: MELANCON GERARD(19%)
Trainer: AMOSS THOMAS M(27%)
Conditions: ALLOWANCE
Distance: SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS(DIRT)
Purse: $21,000
DED Wx(WCh): 20:45 PM (29.99* - 59%)


__________________________________________________ _______________________________


Check out all of Whobet's picks (http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/)

[Anderon]

He's lookin good Who !!

[porkchop]

bridgejumper at delta bought the show pool

[Anderon]

Delta 8th....#6 at 1/5.....5 mtp

[porkchop]

$42000 to show at delta downs ??????????

[Donnie]

nice job Anderon!

[porkchop]

update $55000 to show at delta downs wow !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anderon]

Delta 8th....#6 at 1/5.....5 mtp

Winner....$2.40....$2.20...$2.10

[Anderon]

nice job Anderon!

Thanks Donnie, just getting some small prices as of late, but what I always say is.....It's better than the alternative !! :cool:

[porkchop]

great work its nice to see hard work and perserverance pays off i'm with you thanks

[Anderon]

Thanks Porkchop, nice of you to say. It has been 31 years of continualy doing trial and error to get to this point but I'm ready now to make back all the money that I've deposited into their account now it's their turn to deposit into my account regularly for a change !! :jump:

[sally]

I have to go .Have to work for wages tomorow,because i am a BIG LOSER at the track.
trivia ?
Wht movie was the phrase "working for wages "used in a derogatory sense.
hint BLACK AND WHITE

Grapes of Wrath-- great book! :)

[porkchop]

thanks for letting us come along for the ride

[Anderon]

My pleasure... I really enjoy this game with alot of passion !!

[Anderon]

Delta 10th....#7 at 1/1....5 mtp

[ljb]

Thanks Anderon,
I guess with 3 mtp at Delta, the 7 is not making the cut ?
oops spoke to soon!!!

[Anderon]

Delta 10th....#7 at 1/1....5 mtp

Winner....$3.60....$2.40....$2.10

[Anderon]

Todays Final Recap


6 - Plays


4 - Wins.......66.7%

0 - Place......66.7%

0 - Show......66.7%


4 / 6 ITM


Profits Per $2.00 to Win .......+$.80

Todays ROI............................6.6%




Overall Posted Spot Play Selections Update !!


42 - Posted Selections


28 - Wins..........66.7%

32 - Place.........76.2%

36 - Show.........85.7%


Win Profits Per $2.00..........$21.00

ROI...................................25.0%





Until Next Time............Stay Profitable !! :ThmbUp:

[andicap]

i see you hit 76% place -- whats your ROI on that bet? Definitely lower than win but jeez, look how consistent and with a rebate, even better.

[jma]

I have to say, since I gave you a hard time in the past when you were just throwing picks out there, your recent stretch has been very impressive. You've been consistently doing well each day, and that's not easy! I hope it keeps working for you.

[njcurveball]

I also have to say CONGRATS! You are basically "thumbing your nose" at all of the Posters here who said they had to stop selling _______ (fill in the blank) due to the prices dropping.

You put the pick right out there for everyone to see with no fear! Almost like watching the Great Wollenda!

Keep up the good work! :ThmbUp:

[imanatm]

Hi. Just thougth I would impress on you how you can improve maybe. I noticed your horses with a power rating below the top 2 have not won. Thats just my quick look at my software ratings on about 25 of your picks..that alone would move all your numbers up. I checked the correlation of my top 2 values and there was no pattern. All I could find was that if they weren't in the top 2 then they didnt win. Good luck with todays Picks..

[Anderon]

i see you hit 76% place -- whats your ROI on that bet? Definitely lower than win but jeez, look how consistent and with a rebate, even better.

Right now it stands at 9.1% for Place and Show is .6%, now you can see why I say to Win Wager only !!

[Anderon]

First off let me say Thank You for all the kind words and responses that I've been getting these last few days from everyone of you, it sincerely has been most appreciated. It is really rewarding to acheive something that you have worked at for almost all your life for that many people said could never be done, (I myself had began to wonder) and that is to achieve a very high percentage of winning day in and day out. The one thing I do like about what I'm doing is that the losing days should be very very few and when I do have a losing day it should be very easily manageable with just a small loss and not a huge loss for the day. Let me say this, this is not a preamble to me ever selling anything or marketing anything, as I have said before, I never have never will. My true belief is that if it really works it wouldn't be for sale, they would use it to make a small fortune for themselves. I just want to share it as much as I can for as long as I can because I know it takes alot of money on the chalk to really effect the price, so that's why I don't feel my price is getting pounded down to the point that it's time to stop makeing my selections available, I will do it for as long as I can. I'm on the players side not the system marketers side. What I've always found is that marketers always show you examples of data for only when their system wins. How about showing me your data for 30 or even 60 - 90 days of straight playing for every playable race from your system. Heck, I could always find winners on alot of things I've done but if you made me show you the plays that were playable for 30 straight days you'd of lost your butt. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I know what everyone goes thru to try to beat this game and to be profitable. I'm just here to help the fellow horse player become profitable if they have the patience for my selections and nothing more. Sorry I got off on this road but I'm just one of you and I love this game and have a tremendous passion for it !!

Once again, thanks so much to everyone for their tremendous support !! :)