4-horse exacta box

[dav4463]

Does anyone ever use 4-horse exacta boxes?

I've had some success recently in races where I felt I could confidently eliminate the top two favorites, but had trouble separating my contenders for the win and place.

A couple of $600+ exactas gets me excited, but my logical brain says it won't happen often enough! I keep thinking it's beginner's luck since I've never used a 4-horse exacta box in the past.

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience is that 4-horse boxes work well in large fields (8+).

If either the favorite or the 2nd choice deserve to be bet against you have a "grade A" play.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Great Communicator]

I think a 4 horse box is an excellent way to try to cash a ticket in the race you are betting. It's always a good feeling to cash a winning ticket.


At the same time, I don't think there is a worse type of bet you can make if you are shooting for long term profits at the races.

To guarantee yourself 11 losing tickets, while betting into a 25% takeout pool, where everyone on track and off track can see all the probable exacta payoffs, is to me about the best recipe for long term disaster available at the races.

If you're going to play exotics, you have to take a stand, IMO. Playing a 4 horse exacta box is pretty far from taking a stand, I think most would agree.

[JustRalph]

I have done it. In large fields, turf races mostly where I think the favs are vulnerable or I see some nice numbers in the payoffs...........that jive with a couple of long ones I like.

[dav4463]

I've only used it in races where I feel confident that I can eliminate both the favorite and the second choice.

I eliminate them based on a negative or suspicious class move, very low trainer/jockey win %, poor form, "too good to be true angle", or a bounce candidate.

When both favorites have negatives, I've used the bet and it's hit very well recently.

I use the box because in these races, although I correctly eliminate the favorites, I don't have a strong win candidate so I box my top four picks that are left.

I checked the ones I've hit and all of them came from fields of 8+horses, so Dave Schwartz is right on the money with his advice.

Also, none of them included either the first or second best last race speed figure horse.

[andicap]

If you're going make so many bets, i would think playing 3/5 would be better than 4/4. If you can't whittle the field from four to three win contenders, you'll never turn a profit in this game. On top of that I would eliminate the lowest exacta prices as well unless your records show they are profitable for you in that scenario. But I would think if you're able to consistently select competitive mid to high range winners and secnd places horses you're better off not playing say, favorite/second choice, etc.

One exception might be huge fields where there is no clear cut favorite -- sometimes all the exactas pay pretty well in these types of races.

Again, check your records -- see what works for YOU.

For example I'm experimenting with an exacta play that uses just 15-1 shots and higher in 2nd place with a single low odds horse on top. Let's say I hit the top choice 33% of the time. If I can be right 14% of the time, I can turn a profit because the average exacta pays more than $42. (do the math.)
That bet is in addition to whatever I might play to win or key in the 3rd spot with tris. But my records show I finish 2nd a lot with these horses. So it's right for me.

[alysheba88]

As a general rule I think its an awful bet. As a general rule.

Sure there are situations (Derby comes to mind) when a 4-5-6 horse box can make sense. But as a regular play its awful. Because you are betting too much in relation to what you can win. Yes I know you can hit big exactas sometimes with this, but just spreading yourself too thin. Better to look for races where you can key on two combos and bet those aggressivley

[garyoz]

I agree with Alysheba, do you want to cash tickets or show a profit? Terrible bet. In the long run, if you really can't separate the horses, you are better off taking the two longer priced horses and putting them over the shorter price horses. Also you might want to make it a 2 over 5 bet, picking up late pace horses. In many (maybe the majority) races, pace (energy distribution)determines the second and third place finishers, not the two "fastest" horses.

[DanG]

If you honestly determine all 4 runners have equal chances of running 1st and / or 2nd, then the only time to box is when they are all equal payouts…which virtually never happens.

No offense meant to anyone who boxes.

We have all “boxed” wagers and if you’re having some fun posting selections it gets tedious typing out 12 weighted combinations. However; if you’re stated goal is profit then all your wagers must reflect win expectation per dollar invested. It’s the only chance we have vs. exotic rakes and the serious whales that body slam perceived overlays.

[ryesteve]

Do you have any way of ranking your contenders? If you do, I would suggest that you keep records and analyze the results, because you are likely to find that many combinations within the 4 horse box are very unprofitable. At least that's been my experience.

[Murph]

Do you have any way of ranking your contenders? If you do, I would suggest that you keep records and analyze the results, because you are likely to find that many combinations within the 4 horse box are very unprofitable. At least that's been my experience.
I would rather bet 4 horses to win, considering longshts, than a box 4 exacta.
I only require that the shortest price cover the $8 total, so no one of the 4
would be bet at less than 3/1. Multiply your win bets times 3, for the same
$24 outlay, and your long odds winners can be quite rewading.

I expect this type of play to cover a good percentage of losers that carry me
between longshot scores. The losing exacta combos eat up too great of a
percentage of your total winnings.

Murph

[JustMissed]

I always do a little grid on a piece of paper with the runners listed across the top and along left side.

Write in the prices from the exacta grid on the tote/screen.

With four runners-you will often find 8 of the 12 combinations will pay at least double the bet cost and also if those low price combinations hit they will almost cover the bet cost. Also, the combos with the favs will tend to decrease but the other combos will increase.

I generally play Tampa, Mountaineer, Calder. This probably would not work well a short field/chalky tracks.

Hit 3 for 3 this way yesterday playing Tampa. When Margo, Doug or myself cannot come to a concensus-I'll box the hell out of the exacta.

The game is too tough to leave ANY money on the table.

Good luck,


JM

[BombsAway Bob]

Does anyone ever use 4-horse exacta boxes?

I've had some success recently in races where I felt I could confidently eliminate the top two favorites, but had trouble separating my contenders for the win and place.

A couple of $600+ exactas gets me excited, but my logical brain says it won't happen often enough! I keep thinking it's beginner's luck since I've never used a 4-horse exacta box in the past.
If you really dislike the top 2 betting favorites, your Profit potential would be much better to make a $1 4-horse Tri Box=$24(tossing top 2 choices). While the fave might beat you every once in a while running third, it's my experience that once the faves are beaten jocks are more apt to "wrap up" on them, save them for another day. Jerry Bailey used to be my top jock that would "save" a fave for another day, creating some Huge TRI payouts!:jump:

[Light]

There is no black and white way to play 4 horses. Like ALL races each case requires taylor made analysis dealing with the NOW with you as the observer.One day you'll look like a genius ,next day like a fool. Debate it all you want,its hard to tell when you are being the genius or the fool because they co exist within your mind.

[Arlington Rodie]

I've done it, but very rarely, I mainly stick to 3 horse exacta boxes. The only time I have done it, is in large field races (10+), and with plenty of odds to boot.

[fmhealth]

Dav, I've taken your idea one step further by utilizing 5 horse exacta boxes. I've hit some terrific payoffs that I never would have imagined using my usual 'capping procedure.


Bottom line for me at least was to abandon this strategy. While the hits mentioned above were great. Unfortunately, they were few & far between. Overall ROI was a significant negative based upon all the $'s I was putting into each race.

Hopefully you'll have far better returns than I experienced. Best of luck!

FMH

[skate]

i'd take the higher odds and "Q" him with the others

[completebill]

Dan G is correct ANY "box" is appropriate ONLY when you give the runners an exactly equal win probability (and the bet offers value). Barry Meadows, in his book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" covers the subject with precision.

[Robert Fischer]

Dan G is correct ANY "box" is appropriate ONLY when you give the runners an exactly equal win probability (and the bet offers value). Barry Meadows, in his book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" covers the subject with precision.

They don't all have to be the same. (if you don't dutch)

However the value has to exceed your minimum demand for all 12plays.
Most of the time you will not have 12 combinations that meet your value demand, so in those times you adjust your wager to meet the value.

Value = Price*Probability.

In reality it is better to dutch the exacta probables than to box, if we were going to go "technical" about it. That is a level of detail open to the serious player.

[completebill]

Robert: You are correct, but your statement really should apply ONLY to situations in which you're "dutching".
If you do not give your 4 (or pick a number!) choices equal chances, why would you want to bet equal amounts of money on combinations with varying degrees of probability of success/value?
So, I do agree with what I THINK you're saying--it's certainly O.K. to bet multiple exacta combinations, but only in amounts proportional to the value of the individual bets.

[theratpac]

Does anyone ever use 4-horse exacta boxes?

I've had some success recently in races where I felt I could confidently eliminate the top two favorites, but had trouble separating my contenders for the win and place.

A couple of $600+ exactas gets me excited, but my logical brain says it won't happen often enough! I keep thinking it's beginner's luck since I've never used a 4-horse exacta box in the past.

I have found out that I lose my than winning boxing 4 horses, I usually key 2 and then put the same 2 in the 2nd and 3rd slot adding 4 horses in those slots. :ThmbUp:

[kingfin66]

My experience is that 4-horse boxes work well in large fields (8+).

If either the favorite or the 2nd choice deserve to be bet against you have a "grade A" play.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I really appreciate hearing this coming from you Dave.

[Robert Fischer]

So, I do agree with what I THINK you're saying--it's certainly O.K. to bet multiple exacta combinations, but only in amounts proportional to the value of the individual bets.

right. and a lot of people don't have the ability or convienence to dutch out the exacta probables , so for them if all 4 horses are paying well, they should go for the box. In that case it would be better to box 4 than to make an unnecessary elimination. But Ideally you would proportion your amounts to the values.
It's a rare situation where you would use four or more in the win slot. Conventional wisdom says that for the common race you are better off eliminating your worst value win contenders most of the time. 4 is usually too many for the win slot.

[dav4463]

Keep in mind, I only play when I've eliminated the top two favorites and no horse in the box will be less than 4-1 odds. It doesn't hit often, but when it does.....it's big $$$. I've been fortunate as of late, but wanted some feedback as to whether it will "dry up"! Lots of varied opinions. Thanks for all the input.

[alysheba88]

Keep in mind, I only play when I've eliminated the top two favorites and no horse in the box will be less than 4-1 odds. It doesn't hit often, but when it does.....it's big $$$. I've been fortunate as of late, but wanted some feedback as to whether it will "dry up"! Lots of varied opinions. Thanks for all the input.

If you have eliminated the top two choices my suggestion would be to go deeper and look at tri pool. I know one of top two can still run third, but if you are strong against top two choices you can get great value in tri pool

[asH]

excel function: Fair (par ) exacta grid

Here is a function I wrote that gives a par exacta grid for all horse odds in a race using the Harvell formula. simple to use add as a macro .



odds can be written as 5-2, 1-1, 4/5, 1.50, 4 ...
start by typing a list of odds down a column
c4- cell above the odds (leave 3 rows above free,1 to the left
4/5
4
4-1
45
15
9/11 -yeah over seas odds too

run the macro, when asked enter the empty cell above the odds list you entered down a column...

will produce an exacta grid of par odd exacta for all combinations in a race max is 20 horses but no limit as I know yet have to change the array and count to match.

things to know- this is a function in raw form, no error handling..but very few program errors. no bells and whistles yet...working on other bits.
have fun
asH

Sub ParExacta2()

'Fair Exacta Odds
'When considering the attractiveness of an exacta bet, a quinella bet,
'or a place or show bet, it is necessary to have a good estimate of a
'horse’s chance of coming in second. If you already have a good estimate
'of the true probabilities of each horse winning a race, then the Harville
'formula gives a reasonable estimate of the probability that a given horse
'will come in 2nd. asH

Dim test(1 To 20) As Double
Dim lengthA, lengthB, endofline, i, x, y As Integer
Dim lenNumer1, domin1, domin2, winpercentage1, winpercentage2 As Variant
Dim secondplacepercent, exacta2 As Variant
Dim dollarOROdds As String
Dim Myrange As Range
Dim again As Boolean

Set Myrange = Application.InputBox _
(Prompt:="Select a cell above the list of odds", Title:="ParExacta", Type:=8)
Myrange.Select

For i = 1 To 20 ' max 20..add as many as u like just change the test array above to match

Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Formula = "Win Percentage"
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Formula = "Odds"
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Formula = "P.P."
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Value = Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Value
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Font.Bold = True

If Myrange.Offset(i) = "" Then i = i + 1: Exit For
odds1 = Myrange.Offset(i) '
'convert to int
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip #
lengthA = Len(numer1) ' measure length
lengthB = Len(odds1) 'length before
'compare
If lengthA = lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "dollar"
If lengthA < lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "odds"


Select Case dollarOROdds
Case "odds"
lengthA = Len(odds1) 'length of odds
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
lenNumer1 = Len(numer1) ' length of the numerator
domin1 = Mid(odds1, lenNumer1 + 2) ' find the denom
domin1 = Val(domin1) ' convert the denom
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + domin1)) 'win percentage of first
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
Case "dollar"
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + 1))
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
End Select

'end of con.
' this area reserved for cell and font formatting
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

'format area cells, font,color
test(i) = winpercent1
endofline = i
Myrange.Offset(-2, i).Value = test(i)
Myrange.Offset(-1, i).Value = (i)
Myrange.Offset(i, -1).Value = (i)
Next i

For y = 1 To endofline ' start matrix
For x = 1 To endofline
'
Do 'trap
again = False
If y = x Then x = x + 1: again = yes 'x row second, y column first
If (endofline * 2) = (x + y) - 2 Then Exit Do
If test(x) = 0 Then x = x + 1: again = True
If test(y) = 0 Then y = y + 1: again = True
Loop Until again = False

If x > endofline Then Exit For '

winpercent2 = test(x)
winpercent1 = test(y)
'chance as percent horse comes in second py, after horse pz comes in first = PY/(1-PZ)
'Harville’s exacta formula

secondplacepercent = winpercent2 / (1 - winpercent1)
exacta2 = 2 * (1 / (secondplacepercent * winpercent1))
Myrange.Offset(x, y).Value = exacta2 'a place in the xy grid

Next x
If y > endofline Then Exit For 'safety valve
Next y

End Sub

[asH]

oh yeah format the whole grid area as "TexT" for best results...until I add cell formatting.
scratched horse position is entered as a zero... "0" if needed
asH

[asH]

new and improved
now all you have to do is click on the cell above the list of odds (input box is gone..active cell is the last cell clicked before the macro) , then run the macro (best if attached to a button- then just click on the cell above the list, press button to start)..clears and resets the range.....more to come... if interested
thanks asH




Sub ParExacta2()
Dim test(1 To 20) As Double
Dim lengthA, lengthB, endofline, i, x, y As Integer
Dim lenNumer1, domin1, domin2, winpercentage1, winpercentage2 As Variant
Dim secondplacepercent, exacta2, yeahyeah(1 To 20) As Variant
Dim dollarOROdds As String
Dim Myrange, dee As Range
Dim again As Boolean
Application.ScreenUpdating = False

Range(Cells(1, 1), Cells(5, 3)). _
Font.Italic = True
Set Myrange = activecell
'Application.InputBox _
'(Prompt:="Select the cell above the list of odds", Title:="ParExacta", Type:=8)
Myrange.Select

For i = 1 To 20
yeahyeah(i) = Myrange(i)
Next i
For x = -5 To 20
For y = -5 To 20
Myrange.Offset(x, y).ClearContents
Myrange.Offset(x, y).NumberFormat = "@" 'Value = 'NumSheets("Sheet1")
Myrange.Offset(x, y).Font.Bold = False
Next y
Next x

For i = 1 To 20
Myrange(i) = yeahyeah(i)
Next i

For i = 1 To 20 ' max 20..add as many as u like just change the test array above to match

Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Formula = "Win Percentage"
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Formula = "Odds"
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Formula = "P.P."
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Value = Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Value
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Font.Bold = True

If Myrange.Offset(i) = "" Then i = i + 1: Exit For
odds1 = Myrange.Offset(i) '
'convert to int
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip #
lengthA = Len(numer1) ' measure length
lengthB = Len(odds1) 'length before
'compare
If lengthA = lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "dollar"
If lengthA < lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "odds"


Select Case dollarOROdds
Case "odds"
lengthA = Len(odds1) 'length of odds
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
lenNumer1 = Len(numer1) ' length of the numerator
domin1 = Mid(odds1, lenNumer1 + 2) ' find the denom
domin1 = Val(domin1) ' convert the denom
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + domin1)) 'win percentage of first
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
Case "dollar"
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + 1))
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
End Select

'end of con.
' this area reserved for cell and font formatting
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

'format area cells, font,color
test(i) = winpercent1
endofline = i
Myrange.Offset(-2, i).Value = test(i)
Myrange.Offset(-1, i).Value = (i)
Myrange.Offset(i, -1).Value = (i)
Next i

For y = 1 To endofline ' start matrix
For x = 1 To endofline
'
Do 'trap
again = False
If y = x Then x = x + 1: again = yes 'x row second, y column first
If (endofline * 2) = (x + y) - 2 Then Exit Do
If test(x) = 0 Then x = x + 1: again = True
If test(y) = 0 Then y = y + 1: again = True
Loop Until again = False

If x > endofline Then Exit For '

winpercent2 = test(x)
winpercent1 = test(y)
'chance as percent horse comes in second py, after horse pz comes in first = PY/(1-PZ)
'Harville’s exacta formula

secondplacepercent = winpercent2 / (1 - winpercent1)
exacta2 = 2 * (1 / (secondplacepercent * winpercent1))
Myrange.Offset(x, y).Value = exacta2 'a place in the xy grid

Next x
If y > endofline Then Exit For 'safety valve
Next y
Application.ScreenUpdating = True
End Sub

[phatbastard]

just thinking outloud here.......but if you can't seperate 4 or even 5 horses in a race , do you even have an opinion? having 4 horses that are main contenders for the win, doesn't necessarily mean one of the others in this slobbernocker of a race couldn't be 2nd or 3rd.....4 horse boxes would seem to fall more into recreational betting .....

[asH]

oh yeah! , area now formatted is larger . Area (cells covered )is -5 back and -5 above the active cell (cell above the list of odds) ...stay 5 rows below row 1, and 5 columns from column A
if you need to adjust the matrix area (cells formatted- bold below), too, remember 20 is the max number of horses and odds-...thats what happens at 4:00am in the mornzzzzzzzzzzzz.
again
stay 5 columns away from 1st column, and 5 rows from the top-row 1, this area will be cleared and reformatted..if not out of bounds error will pop up...will correct

(new code)
For i = 1 To 20
yeahyeah(i) = Myrange(i)
Next i
For x = -5 To 20 ' format, clear matrix area
For y = -5 To 20
Myrange.Offset(x, y).ClearContents
Myrange.Offset(x, y).NumberFormat = "@"
Myrange.Offset(x, y).Font.Bold = False
Next y
Next x

asH

[dav4463]

just thinking outloud here.......but if you can't seperate 4 or even 5 horses in a race , do you even have an opinion? having 4 horses that are main contenders for the win, doesn't necessarily mean one of the others in this slobbernocker of a race couldn't be 2nd or 3rd.....4 horse boxes would seem to fall more into recreational betting .....


My opinion is that I feel strongly that both the favorite and second favorite will finish out of the top two, and that is the only time I use the 4-horse exacta box. So far so good, hit a couple of them this week.

[asH]

had time today after the parade (GIANTS) and election

90% complete- structure is sound ..now faster.. warning msg if to close to the edge. now no errors if 0 is last horse...remember 0 is used for scratched horses , or empty positions... ... Another way to use is to just plug in your exacta horses . Can immediately determine overs and unders, couple of hi percentage ones got by at Aqu last week. Would ve added conditional formatting but excel does that already

may incorporate a few ideas from Steve Crist's Exotic Betting.

I needed the practice before major upgrade of my program. drop a line. use it as a excel macro, add to a button, can have more than one running.

have fun with it , make money
asH






Sub ParExacta2()

Dim test(1 To 20) As Double
Dim lengthA, lengthB, endofline, i, x, y As Integer
Dim winpercentage1, winpercentage2, GiantsEighteengamesAndWontheSuperbowl(1 To 20, 1 To 20) As Variant
Dim secondplacepercent, exacta2, yeahyeah(1 To 20) As Variant
Dim dollarOROdds As String
Dim Myrange, dee As Range
Dim again, Patriots19GiantsWontheSuperBowl As Boolean
Application.ScreenUpdating = False
Patriots19GiantsWontheSuperBowl = True

If ActiveCell.Row < 3 Then
MsgBox "Begin grid 3 rows and 3 columns from edge. " & " Row is at position " & ActiveCell.Row, vbCritical, "error": End
End If
If ActiveCell.Column < 3 Then
MsgBox "Begin grid 3 rows and 3 columns from edge." & " Column at position " & ActiveCell.Column, vbCritical, "error": End
End If

Set Myrange = ActiveCell

For i = 1 To 20
yeahyeah(i) = Myrange.Offset(i).Value
If Trim(yeahyeah(i)) = "" Then endofline = i: Exit For
Next i

Set Myrange = ActiveCell.Range(Cells(1, 1), Cells(25, 25))
Myrange.ClearContents
Myrange.NumberFormat = "@" '
Myrange.Font.Bold = False
Myrange.Interior.ColorIndex = 0
Myrange.Font.Size = 11
Myrange.Orientation = center

Set Myrange = ActiveCell.Range(Cells(2, 1), Cells(20, 1))
Myrange.Value = Application.Transpose(yeahyeah)

Set Myrange = ActiveCell
Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Formula = "Win Percentage"
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Formula = "Odds"
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Formula = "P.P."
Myrange.Offset(-2, -1).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(0, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(-1, -1).Font.Bold = True
For i = 1 To endofline
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Value = Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Value
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Font.Bold = True
Myrange.Offset(0, i).Interior.ColorIndex = 17
Myrange.Offset(i, 0).Interior.ColorIndex = 17
If i = endofline Then Exit For '(i = i + 1:) take value from array strip, why i+1??, may take off
odds1 = yeahyeah(i) '
'convert to int
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip #
lengthA = Len(numer1) ' measure length
lengthB = Len(odds1) 'length before
'compare
If lengthA = lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "dollar"
If lengthA < lengthB Then dollarOROdds = "odds"
Select Case dollarOROdds
Case "odds"
lengthA = Len(odds1) 'length of odds
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
lenNumer1 = Len(numer1) ' length of the numerator
domin1 = Mid(odds1, lenNumer1 + 2) ' find the denom
domin1 = Val(domin1) ' convert the denom
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + domin1)) 'win percentage of first
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
Case "dollar"
numer1 = Val(odds1) ' strip the numerator
winpercent1 = 1 - (numer1 / (numer1 + 1))
If winpercent1 = "1" Then winpercent1 = "0"
End Select

'end of con.
' this area reserved for advanced functions
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
'xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
'format area cells, font,color
test(i) = winpercent1
Myrange.Offset(-2, i).Value = test(i)
Myrange.Offset(-1, i).Value = (i)
Myrange.Offset(i, -1).Value = (i)
Next i

For y = 1 To endofline ' start matrix
For x = 1 To endofline
'
Do 'x y trap
again = False
If x = y Then x = x + 1: again = True

If test(x) = 0 Then x = x + 1: again = True

If x >= endofline And test(x) = 0 Then Exit For 'again = False ,x = x - 1,End If
If y >= endofline And test(y) = 0 Then Exit For
If test(y) = 0 Then y = y + 1: again = True

If (endofline * 2) = (x + y) - 2 Then Exit Do ' again = False

Loop Until again = False

'--------------------------------------------------


'--------------------------------------------------------
If x > endofline Then Exit For '

winpercent2 = test(x)
winpercent1 = test(y)
'chance as percent horse comes in second py, after horse pz comes in first = PY/(1-PZ)
'Harville’s exacta formula
secondplacepercent = winpercent2 / (1 - winpercent1)
exacta2 = 2 * (1 / (secondplacepercent * winpercent1))
GiantsEighteengamesAndWontheSuperbowl(x, y) = exacta2

Next x
If y > endofline Then Exit For 'safety valve
Next y
Set Myrange = ActiveCell.Range(Cells(2, 2), Cells(20, 20))
Myrange.Value = GiantsEighteengamesAndWontheSuperbowl
Application.ScreenUpdating = True

End Sub

[First_Place]

"Does anyone ever use 4-horse exacta boxes?"

Don't know if they do or not, but if so, they don't know what they're doing and in reality, are just plain gambling. That's good...we need more folks like that. :)

FP

[dav4463]

Do I have to give back the money I made this month on the 4-horse exacta boxes that I hit? ....I already know the answer. "you will give it back eventually." I guess I'll wait and see, but so far, being very selective about races that have bad favorites, it's working. I'm going to stick with it a while longer and see how it goes. The value is there sometimes. Two bad favorites and never a top two speed figure horse in my box has shown solid profits.

[First_Place]

"Do I have to give back the money I made this month on the 4-horse exacta boxes that I hit?"

No, of course not. But I still stick to my original statement: if you can't narrow down the contenders better than that, you really don't know what you're doing (i.e. don't really have an opinion) and are just plain gambling. That's okay, if Lady Luck is on your side that's great! Speaking for myself, I rarely cross paths with that gal and as such, I have to MAKE MY OWN LUCK via in-dept analysis of past performances. And after having done so, if I really don't have an opinion, I'll save my money for the next race instead of taking a wild shot--not that I've never tried that in the past (and lost). And I'm talking from an exotic betting perspective as that's what I concentrate on.

Regards,

FP

[Robert Fischer]

"Do I have to give back the money I made this month on the 4-horse exacta boxes that I hit?"

No, of course not. But I still stick to my original statement: if you can't narrow down the contenders better than that, you really don't know what you're doing (i.e. don't really have an opinion) and are just plain gambling.

What about when everyone is betting a low odds favorite who you know has no hope?
Do you needlessly cut down to 3 or less contenders and toss the 4th contender who may be paying $200 with everything? Of course not. You may even have to use 5 valuable contenders some times(although in such cases the trifecta is called for). Maybe more. There is not limit, it just depends on value. The box is a simplistic wager because 90% of the time the player is better off distributing his wager according to value (even if he uses 4 horses in the win slot, he wouldn't always want EQUAL wager amounts). However for many horseplayers who don't have the option of dutching their exactas, the 4 horse box makes good sense when all 12 combinations are paying above the value that you demand.

[First_Place]

"What about when everyone is betting a low odds favorite who you know has no hope?"

Then I use MY key horse in the first slot w/other contenders in the second slot...then reverse it, i.e. put the latter on top of the former. I just know what works for me--and it's certainly not guessing via boxing multiple horses which costs you more money.

Regards,

FP

[rufus999]

I have experimented with different methods over the years. The a horse box is not a method I use... too much of an outlay weighed against possible ROI. Besides, when I bet I like a lot of action so I potshot cold exactas over/under quite often. I would recommend this to anyone who wants to sharpen their skills on the strategies needed for such a wager. For one, the small outlay allows you to do it more and two, you pay closer attention when you are invested. Three methods I use are:

3 horse key: Pick three and key one over and under with the other two.
4 unit bet
4 horse key: 1 over the 2,3,4 and 2 over the 1,3.
5 unit bet
5 horse key: 1 over the 4,5 and 2 over the 3,4, and 3 over the 1,2.
6 unit bet

The majority of my plays are cold exactas and 3 horse keys if I'm not quite sure. The 4 and 5 keys I like to use at venues I'm not familiar with like UK and Australia. Of course, you can go over and under with the last two methods and double the outlay and still come in well under the cost of a 4 horse box.:)

rufus