METS Get Santata

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?id=nymymd=20080129&content_id=2358636&vkey=news_nym&fext=.jsp&c_

[BIG RED]

Good for you Jimmy. Just glad he didn't go to a AL

competitor.

[JustRalph]

I can't believe what they are giving up and willing to pay for this guy............... amazing.............

[The Hawk]

Does that guarantees a Mets win sometime in September?

[njcurveball]

Just like watching the World Series of Poker, the Mets just stood up and said "ALL IN".

It is curious they felt the need to give up so many prospects in January, Santana wasn't signing with the Twins, so it seems Minaya lost this "stare down" contest.

[The Hawk]

Really? I felt like Minaya won, and I'm not a Mets fan. He retained F. Martinez, which he was adamant about doing, and he parted with only one player (Gomez) who is truly considered a certain major league player. I think it's the Twins who blew it. They could have had Hughes, Cabrera and a third player from the Yankees for Santana in the initial stages, when Li'l Steinbrenner put up that "deadline", and they passed. That certainly seems like a better package than he got from the Mets.

[ryesteve]

Up until yesterday, I was in the "wait until he's a free agent" camp... but now that I see what the Mets gave up to have him for this season and guarantee they'll have him beyond this season, I don't understand how anyone can think they gave up "too much".

[Bubbles]

They made a very similar trade for Mike Piazza. Three high-level prospects for one of the best in the game at his position. That seemed to work out OK.

[njcurveball]

Really? I felt like Minaya won.

What did he win? Who was still in the bidding? Many people said the same when AJ Pierzynski was traded for some "no names" at the time.

Chris Gomez could be a very good leadoff hitting center fielder. Phil Humber could be as good as Phil Hughes. The other two "throw-ins" are teenagers with some pretty good talent(Guerra and Mulvey). They could be playing in the All Star Game in 5 years or playing slot machines.

WHY give up 4 blue chip prospects when no one else is bidding? The Yankees pulled out and there was no way the Red Sox were giving up Ellsbury without a "duel" with them.

No other team was even in the running. Why not pull a blue chip prospect out of the deal and make the Twins "sweat"?

Value for value it looks good right now, but holding out to keep a Guerra or Mulvey may have looked incredible in 5 years.

Jim

[njcurveball]

They made a very similar trade for Mike Piazza. Three high-level prospects for one of the best in the game at his position. That seemed to work out OK.

The Dodgers actually made out pretty well in the original Piazza deal. It was the Marlins who were quick to give up a star to try to save salary money.

Although you make a good point, since Ed Yarnall and Geoff Goetz could be playing poker with Guerra or Mulvey in a few years. Of course, the GM who made that deal is no longer with the Mets.

And if Gomez turns out like Preston Wilson and doesn't blow his knee out, you are talking an All Star Center Fielder for the next 10 years. By then, the Mets will have another GM who might even trade for him.

Of course if you want to talk about Mets Trade history we could always talk about the Seaver trade. :jump:



Jim

[ceejay]

Mets Pass Yankees as New York's Most Likely World Series Winner (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=a8CfeunQjiu4&refer=home)
The odds on the Mets winning the World Series are 5-1, an improvement from the 8-1 odds they had just after Boston won the title in October, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which advises Nevada sports books on betting lines. That places Santana's likely new team as the second choice to the Red Sox, who are 9-2, and ahead of the Yankees, who are third at 11-2.

[JustRalph]

I think the mets are over reacting from the effects of their end of season swoon................

[The Hawk]

What did he win? Who was still in the bidding? Many people said the same when AJ Pierzynski was traded for some "no names" at the time.

Chris Gomez could be a very good leadoff hitting center fielder. Phil Humber could be as good as Phil Hughes. The other two "throw-ins" are teenagers with some pretty good talent(Guerra and Mulvey). They could be playing in the All Star Game in 5 years or playing slot machines.

WHY give up 4 blue chip prospects when no one else is bidding? The Yankees pulled out and there was no way the Red Sox were giving up Ellsbury without a "duel" with them.

No other team was even in the running. Why not pull a blue chip prospect out of the deal and make the Twins "sweat"?

Value for value it looks good right now, but holding out to keep a Guerra or Mulvey may have looked incredible in 5 years.

Jim

Three "could be's" in your reply, regarding the prospects. The only "could be" about Santana is that he could be the best in baseball.

He had to give up something to get him, and they weren't all "blue chip". At one time they may have been.

The other thing is, did Minaya know that the Sox and Yankees pulled out?

[DanG]

Minaya does understand that in New York he is more likely to be packing a suitcase by the time a prospect is ready to make an impact. What happened 3 minutes ago is the key to the city.

Minnesota only has so many dollars to play with in that market and signing Morneau for a mint forced their hand.

I wish the National league all the luck adjusting to that change-up. The guy is competitive and flat out nasty.

[njcurveball]

The only "could be" about Santana is that he could be the best in baseball.




Or it "could be" he is just Barry Zito 2.0 and the Mets will have a bloated 4+ ERA pitcher making a ton of money and struggling to win 15 games.

[PaceAdvantage]

Or it "could be" he is just Barry Zito 2.0 and the Mets will have a bloated 4+ ERA pitcher making a ton of money and struggling to win 15 games.One can only hope.....;)

[The Hawk]

Or it "could be" he is just Barry Zito 2.0 and the Mets will have a bloated 4+ ERA pitcher making a ton of money and struggling to win 15 games.

If you've ever really watched them pitch, at any point in their careers, you'd know it's silly to compare the two. No one but the Giants thought Zito was worth that kind of money.

You can analyze ANY trade and say this guy "could be" this or that. There's risk involved. The Mets are built to win now, but they weren't winning anything without (at least) one more solid pitcher. The chances they regret it down the line are good, of course, but the trade-off is they now have a chance to win next year, and for a couple of years after that. And that's not something I want to happen.

But it "could be."

[njcurveball]

If you've ever really watched them pitch, at any point in their careers, you'd know it's silly to compare the two.


Premium starting left handers switching leagues, both pitchers thrive off an off speed pitch. Zito the curveball, Santana the change.

Santana "could be" anything, but he is just as likely to have an ERA over 4 and 15 wins as he is to have an ERA under 3 and 20 wins.

Jim

[headhawg]

What did he win? Who was still in the bidding? Many people said the same when AJ Pierzynski was traded for some "no names" at the time.

WHY give up 4 blue chip prospects when no one else is bidding? The Yankees pulled out and there was no way the Red Sox were giving up Ellsbury without a "duel" with them.

No other team was even in the running. Why not pull a blue chip prospect out of the deal and make the Twins "sweat"?Reminds me of when the Texas Rangers owner was trying to sign A-Rod. If I recall, he upped his own bid of $18-20 mil to $25 mil per when it appeared that all others teams had dropped out of the bidding at the lesser number.

[njcurveball]

If I recall, he upped his own bid of $18-20 mil to $25 mil per when it appeared that all others teams had dropped out of the bidding at the lesser number.

EXACTLY my point! :ThmbUp:

But I think Dan nailed this one. Minaya knows his job won't be there in 5 years, so he doesn't care about 19 year old kids, even if they are projected to be All Stars in 5 years.

He can sell more tickets by signing Santana at the end of January, so that is probably his only consideration. No sense waiting till Spring Training and letting the Twins get desperate, so you can save a prospect.

Jim

[ceejay]

Sources: Mets likely won't reach deal with Santana until Friday, if at all (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3224116)

I can't comment about the credibility of this report....

[njcurveball]

The Mets WILL pay Santana, or face a bidding war after the season. One of the reasons to trade for him is to have a chance to negotiate without bidding against other teams.

This deal on paper is very good for the Mets and they will not screw it up at the negotiating table.

The Yankees may be quick to drop out when they have to give up Phil Hughes, but even Omar knows that without losing a player like that, the Yanks will be front and center bidding for him if he becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

That makes it a lose/lose proposition for the Mets. If he does poorly and lowers his price, they have gotten no return for losing 4 prospects. If he does great and they win the World Series, his price will sky rocket.

Jim

[ceejay]

The Mets WILL pay Santana, or face a bidding war after the season. One of the reasons to trade for him is to have a chance to negotiate without bidding against other teams.

No contract and the trade is off, Jim.

[njcurveball]

No contract and the trade is off, Jim.


I wouldn't want to be Omar Minaya if that happens! :confused:

[The Hawk]

EXACTLY my point! :ThmbUp:

But I think Dan nailed this one. Minaya knows his job won't be there in 5 years, so he doesn't care about 19 year old kids, even if they are projected to be All Stars in 5 years.

He can sell more tickets by signing Santana at the end of January, so that is probably his only consideration. No sense waiting till Spring Training and letting the Twins get desperate, so you can save a prospect.

Jim

He already got what he wanted when F. Martinez was not included. He made it clear he had no trouble trading the 4 guys who were included.

There's a small, outside chance Minaya knows more about the prospects than you do, believe it or not.

[The Hawk]

Premium starting left handers switching leagues, both pitchers thrive off an off speed pitch. Zito the curveball, Santana the change.

Santana "could be" anything, but he is just as likely to have an ERA over 4 and 15 wins as he is to have an ERA under 3 and 20 wins.

Jim

Must be a fantasy league guy....

Consistency, durability, location and tenacity are the differences, not to mention a better fastball.

I'd say he has almost NO chance of an ERA under 3.00 and 20 wins. Who's done that in this era? If that's what you call a success from him this year he's doomed to be a failure in your eyes.

[njcurveball]

I'd say he has almost NO chance of an ERA under 3.00 and 20 wins. Who's done that in this era? If that's what you call a success from him this year he's doomed to be a failure in your eyes.

Tom Glavine was 15 win pitcher with an ERA in the high 3 area for them. That sounded like a good deal for a guy making 10 million.

Now you have a pitcher who is going to make double that amount and you are happy with the same results?

I know a guy making 20 million for the Yankees better walk on water and then turn it into wine for the post game celebration! If not, the critics will say his season was the worst ever. :eek:

[njcurveball]

There's a small, outside chance Minaya knows more about the prospects than you do, believe it or not.


I thank you for this compliment, but I am pretty sure Minaya has a better handle on them than me. :ThmbUp:

Of course, I am also pretty sure in 10 years we both have the same chance of being the GM for the Mets. :lol:

Jim

[njcurveball]

He made it clear he had no trouble trading the 4 guys who were included.
.


That is how Santana got to Minnesota. Both Florida and Houston had no trouble trading him as well.

A long while ago the Orioles had no trouble tossing Curt Schilling into a deal for an established star. We all know how that one turned out as well.

[The Hawk]

That is how Santana got to Minnesota. Both Florida and Houston had no trouble trading him as well.

A long while ago the Orioles had no trouble tossing Curt Schilling into a deal for an established star. We all know how that one turned out as well.

Yes. And for every one of those there are 100 who are now gym teachers.

[The Hawk]

Tom Glavine was 15 win pitcher with an ERA in the high 3 area for them. That sounded like a good deal for a guy making 10 million.

Now you have a pitcher who is going to make double that amount and you are happy with the same results?

I know a guy making 20 million for the Yankees better walk on water and then turn it into wine for the post game celebration! If not, the critics will say his season was the worst ever. :eek:

Wasn't Glavine also the guy who gave up 7 runs in the 1st inning in the last "must-win" game of their year? I bet even you would admit you'd rather have Santana if that situation arose this year, whatever the salary.

[njcurveball]

I bet even you would admit you'd rather have Santana if that situation arose this year, whatever the salary.


As long as I don't have to pay it, SURE I WOULD SANTANA!

My point is not against him or even the Mets getting a bad deal. Just the urgency of it.

In 5 years, Santana could have 3 World Series rings and the other 4 guys could be gym teachers as you say.

It is a great deal for Mets fans, no doubt about it. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[slotterhaus]

For those so inclined, here is a rather detailed analysis of how Santana gets hitters out. It's a remarkable piece of work and is indicative of the absurd dedication of the best of the Sabermetric crowd.

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/01/09/tales-of-the-changeup-an-analysis-of-johan-santana/

We'll miss Johan greatly in Minnesota but the Metropolitans are likely to be on the hook for $25M+ when the diminutive Venezuelan is 35 years of age. Nothing close to this will ever happen in Mill City with any Pohlad at the helm.

If I was a Yank rube, I'd be upset at the outcome. The Twins have mixed feelings about Hughes but an Ian Kennedy-headlined package featuring deep minor leaguers could have landed Johizzle.

New Twin GM Billy Smith's biggest mistake was misreading the Yank braintrust. He never expected them to fold and take the Red Sox and whatever leverage he once had off the table. The Mets were the only team left Santana would agree to play for and their deal barely beat out the two firsts the Twins would receive once JS left after the '08 season.

We ended up with 5 tools and 3 suspects.

[njcurveball]

I'd say he has almost NO chance of an ERA under 3.00 and 20 wins. Who's done that in this era?

I was thinking about this. How bout Jake Peavy? He made less than 5 million and won 19 games with an ERA around 2.5. He is 26. Would he be worth 30 million in Santana money?

Santana actually had those stats with the Twins twice before. 20 wins and 2.6 ERA. 19 wins and 2.7 ERA.

Why don't you expect him to come close to that in the National League?

[OTM Al]

Its not likely his pitching but the Met offense that could do him in. At this moment there is nothing guaranteed from either corner outfielder and the 1st baseman might be washed up. These things could change, but even a 2.7 ERA does little good when your team doesn't score.

[The Hawk]

We ended up with 5 tools and 3 suspects.

Don't tell that to NJCurveball. He thinks you got 4 phenoms.

[The Hawk]

I was thinking about this. How bout Jake Peavy? He made less than 5 million and won 19 games with an ERA around 2.5. He is 26. Would he be worth 30 million in Santana money?

Santana actually had those stats with the Twins twice before. 20 wins and 2.6 ERA. 19 wins and 2.7 ERA.

Why don't you expect him to come close to that in the National League?

Peavy is a phenomenal, underrated pitcher, which is why the Pades gave him the biggest contract in the history of the franchise. He also won the Cy Young. But he's not as proven as Santana, which is why he doesn't make "Santana money" yet, but he will in 2013, when he makes $22 million. Also, Santana's 2 seasons with those numbers netted 2 Cy Youngs. So I guess the answer to "Who's done that in this era?" is Santana himself, the best pitcher in the AL, and the best pitcher in the NL.

If you're expecting him to come over and win the Cy Young, that may be a lot to ask, since you think he's just as likely to win 15 with a 4.00 ERA as he is to win 20. I think he'll win 17-18 games and have an ERA about 3.25, which would make him the best pitcher the Mets have had in some time. Of course, as a Yankee fan, I hope gets cold feet and retires to the Venezuelan League. :)

[Bubbles]

Also, with Peavy, you have to remember that he pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the bigs out there in San Diego. He's a great pitcher, but his stats may very well be inflated thanks to the environment he performs in.

[njcurveball]

Also, with Peavy, you have to remember that he pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the bigs out there in San Diego. He's a great pitcher, but his stats may very well be inflated thanks to the environment he performs in.


Shhhh! Don't tell Hawk, I am a "fantasy guru", so a post like this really gets my ears to standing.

Do you know his record on the ROAD last year? HOWZ about a cool 10-1! :jump:

ERA on the road 2.5, HOME 2.5

Best pitcher in baseball last year. Shhhh, fantasy managers eat these stats up. :ThmbUp:

[njcurveball]

Don't tell that to NJCurveball. He thinks you got 4 phenoms.


It is our secret, ok? :jump:


p.s. I am a Yankee and Phillies fan, so if the Mets go down hard, I will be doubly happy! :ThmbUp:

[njcurveball]

But he's not as proven as Santana, which is why he doesn't make "Santana money" yet


Actually he is making tremendous money for his years of service, which "regulate" a players earnings much more than performance.

"Not as proven" means he has stunk in the Playoffs? I cannot argue with you there!

If I were a Mets fan and Santana did NOT win the Cy Young, I would be heartbroken! Imagine Clemens switching leagues at 29?

Heck, he switched leagues and won the Cy Young at 41!

[The Hawk]

Actually he is making tremendous money for his years of service, which "regulate" a players earnings much more than performance.

"Not as proven" means he has stunk in the Playoffs? I cannot argue with you there!

If I were a Mets fan and Santana did NOT win the Cy Young, I would be heartbroken! Imagine Clemens switching leagues at 29?

Heck, he switched leagues and won the Cy Young at 41!

Yes, Clemens really defied logic! I wonder how he did it...

[njcurveball]

Yes, Clemens really defied logic! I wonder how he did it...


Well let me tell you, if he took Steroids, Viagra, HGH, Vitamins A-Z, and the Super Soldier Serum, he still had to pitch at the age of 41. If you want to put an asterisk next to his name, you are more than welcome. It isn't like a weight lifting contest and it isn't like his fastball all of a sudden gained 10 MPH.

[The Hawk]

Well let me tell you, if he took Steroids, Viagra, HGH, Vitamins A-Z, and the Super Soldier Serum, he still had to pitch at the age of 41. If you want to put an asterisk next to his name, you are more than welcome. It isn't like a weight lifting contest and it isn't like his fastball all of a sudden gained 10 MPH.

If he took steroids, he gained an unfair edge, which may not have added 10 mph to his fastball but it did give him a conditioning edge, which made it a hell of a lot easier to get out of bed in the morning after those workouts. He also was able to maintain his velocity into the 7th inning on most occasions, which defies logic. You want to cut him a break because he's 41? Does Bonds get the same break? He's 43, after all.

[ceejay]

"OFFICAL" light is on....
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080202&content_id=2362552&vkey=news_nym&fext=.jsp&c_id=nym&partnered=rss_nym

[njcurveball]

You want to cut him a break because he's 41? Does Bonds get the same break? He's 43, after all.

We could certainly debate this for many years, but the point is that Clemens was the BEST Pitcher in the National League after being the BEST pitcher in the American League.

Getting back on topic, this is the SAME thing I would expect from Santana.

It is clear we both love baseball and would have many great conversations. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[The Hawk]

We could certainly debate this for many years, but the point is that Clemens was the BEST Pitcher in the National League after being the BEST pitcher in the American League.

Getting back on topic, this is the SAME thing I would expect from Santana.

It is clear we both love baseball and would have many great conversations. :ThmbUp:

Jim

No question. Here's to another enjoyable season.