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View Full Version : Alan Woods apparently passed away over the weekend :(


Foolish Pleasure
01-28-2008, 11:42 AM
The world's most successful horse-racing gambler, Australian Alan Woods, died in Hong Kong on Saturday night.
Woods, 62, recently diagnosed with appendiceal cancer, is believed to have suffered a pulmonary embolism. He had begun chemotherapy treatment two weeks ago and passed away in the intensive care unit of the Sanitorium Hospital at Happy Valley in the presence of family and friends.



Born in 1945 in Murwillumbah, New South Wales, Woods showed an early aptitude for mathematics at school but was a losing punter in his earliest days at university and gambling played little part in his life until his 30s.

Working as an actuary in the late 1970s, Woods learned to count cards at blackjack and became a serious gambler for the first time in his life, travelling the world for three years as a professional card counter and undertaking all kinds of disguises and subterfuge to avoid identification by the world's casinos.

But his earnings at blackjack were tiny compared with his subsequent career in racing. Woods turned to horseracing in New Zealand in 1982 then shifted his life and focus to Hong Kong, and its big pools, in 1984.

A founding partner in the earliest computer betting team in Hong Kong, which split after a dispute between the partners in the early 1990s, Woods established his own hugely successful betting operation, with employees based around the world and had built a fortune estimated at more than US$600 million before his death.

Even as Woods grew to the point of dominating the Hong Kong betting scene in recent years, even over and above other successful computer teams, he also enjoyed his wealth and was famed in Hong Kong racing circles for his bacchanalian parties and celebrations.

Once a regular in Wan Chai's bars and nightclubs, Woods had become more reclusive and relocated to Manila several years ago, but his operation continued to annually lay out between one and two per cent of Hong Kong's entire racing turnover (which totalled US$64 billion in the last completed season).

He is survived by two ex-wives, two sons and a daughter.

"My father achieved great success at something so many people dream of doing well and fail to achieve but, along the way, he also provided jobs and support for so many friends - he kept them close to him and brought so many people together," said his daughter, Victoria, yesterday

PaceAdvantage
01-28-2008, 04:58 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=43506

Foolish Pleasure
01-29-2008, 10:24 AM
THanks Ray,
I obviously missed the other thread.

I think it is great that Alan impacted so many people.
How great is the internet that two bit idiots like me can get close to guys who made $600mill over their career?

Likewise same paths, I am an actuary, I learned BJ then became hopelessly addicted to racing.

Anyway-towards the post recently abt people not knowing what they are up against-here is something fr Alan along those regards.


The good news is that the fundamental principles are relatively simple: Alan and his computer team win by capitalising on bad betting by the general public. The bad news is that the key to doing so is having more information than the public. Much more. Alan's team employs a dozen or so staff to review, analyse and compile data for every horse running in Hong Kong, every time it runs. They are a disparate bunch, scattered across Asia and Australasia, coming together only in the cyber-confines of an email inbox. The data is then plugged into a computer program, and using a formula based on past results that has been refined over many years, a probability for every horse in every race is calculated.

Producing the formula is the tough bit. It has been mathematically chiselled out of all the factors that Alan and his team have determined decide races. Each factor is a coefficient in the formula. Some factors - gender, track, distance, weight, last-start result - are objective and can be collected from the humble form guide. The key is getting the weighting of these objective factors right. For example, early on, Alan and his then team partner Bill Benter worked out that number of starts was more important than age. Apparently the data bears it out: the more times a nag is flogged around a racetrack, the less enthused it gets about the whole idea. Then there's form: second in an eight-horse field might not be as impressive as fourth in a 14-horse field. We chat about barrier numbers, and Alan tells me about the time in November 1995 when the computer model stopped working for a month or two. Eventually Alan worked out that the last turn at Happy Valley had been re-cambered - which means the track is shaped to slope upwards from the inside rail - creating a disadvantage for inside horses as the outside horses shifted in. His team adjusted the coefficients relating to barrier position and immediately resumed their winning ways.

Other factors are more subjective, which is why Alan's team employs expert analysts to watch every horse in every race. 'We had a factor called bad rides. We had a factor called not trying. If a couple of horses disputed the lead together, the guys would give it numbers for that. Premature speed - if the horse went too fast too early. Late speed - if it came home very fast in the last 400.' It's the kind of stuff any experienced punter might consider. What the computer teams do is systemise the process, eliminating sentiment and superstition and minimising human error.


There are 2 or 3 direct descendents of the benter/woods program being used in North American racing, they set a ridiculous percentage of the prices.

That is what we are up against-subjective adjustments and all.