Alan Woods Dead

[arkansasman]

I just read on the Asian Board that Alan Woods has died. He posted here as Entropy and on the Asian Board, he posted as Hobbes.

One of the post says that he had been sick awhile. I knew something must be wrong, because I would not receive return emails from him. He use to always reply to my emails prior to 6 month ago. Rest in Peace Alan.

John

[Dave Schwartz]

John,

Sorry to hear that.

He was definitely "one of us" and what many of us aspire to be in the world of gambling.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

Deepest sympathy for him and his family and friends.
RIP


For some reason, this thread always stuck with me....I thought it was quite funny at the time......Posts 13 and 14.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=131154#post131154

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm very sorry to hear of this news. Rest in peace Entropy.

[DeanT]

I just lent a friend Gambling Wizards yesterday, where he was profiled. While waiting outside for him I reread the Alan section.

Truly one of the great gamblers we have ever seen, in my opinion.

[Premier Turf Club]

Wow, that is just horrible. A legend in the field of computer handicapping and wagering.

Rest in Peace. :(


A story on Alan at the link below...

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/25484-top-10-sportsbettors-all-time-4.html

[arkansasman]

Alan Woods on YouTube "The Gambler"

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%22alan+woods%22+gambler&search=Search

[toetoe]

R.I.P., A Dub. :(

[Jeff P]

I only learned a few minutes ago that he posted here using the handle "Entropy." I did not know him personally but his success motivated me to work harder.

R.I. P. Allan. You were truly one of a kind.



-jp

.

[bigmack]

In light of the signature he used around these parts, I trust he was a good cat to be around. Happy trails.

An inexhaustible good nature is one of the most precious gifts of heaven, spreading itself like oil over the troubled sea of thought, and keeping the mind smooth and equable in the roughest weather. Washington Irving

[arkansasman]

Sport - Other Sports - Super-punter lived life others only dream about
Jan 28, 2008, Alan Aitken, 399 words



The world's most successful horse-racing gambler, Australian Alan Woods, died in Hong Kong on Saturday night.

Woods, 62, recently diagnosed with appendiceal cancer, is believed to have suffered a pulmonary embolism. He had begun chemotherapy treatment two weeks ago and passed away in t...

[bigmack]

The world's most successful horse-racing gambler, Australian Alan Woods, died in Hong Kong on Saturday night.

Woods, 62, recently diagnosed with appendiceal cancer, is believed to have suffered a pulmonary embolism. He had begun chemotherapy treatment two weeks ago and passed away in the intensive care unit of the Sanitorium Hospital at Happy Valley in the presence of family and friends.

Born in 1945 in Murwillumbah, New South Wales, Woods showed an early aptitude for mathematics at school but was a losing punter in his earliest days at university and gambling played little part in his life until his 30s.

Working as an actuary in the late 1970s, Woods learned to count cards at blackjack and became a serious gambler for the first time in his life, travelling the world for three years as a professional card counter and undertaking all kinds of disguises and subterfuge to avoid identification by the world's casinos.

But his earnings at blackjack were tiny compared with his subsequent career in racing. Woods turned to horseracing in New Zealand in 1982 then shifted his life and focus to Hong Kong, and its big pools, in 1984.

A founding partner in the earliest computer betting team in Hong Kong, which split after a dispute between the partners in the early 1990s, Woods established his own hugely successful betting operation, with employees based around the world and had built a fortune estimated at more than US$600 million before his death.

Even as Woods grew to the point of dominating the Hong Kong betting scene in recent years, even over and above other successful computer teams, he also enjoyed his wealth and was famed in Hong Kong racing circles for his bacchanalian parties and celebrations.

Once a regular in Wan Chai's bars and nightclubs, Woods had become more reclusive and relocated to Manila several years ago, but his operation continued to annually lay out between one and two per cent of Hong Kong's entire racing turnover (which totalled US$64 billion in the last completed season).

He is survived by two ex-wives, two sons and a daughter.

"My father achieved great success at something so many people dream of doing well and fail to achieve but, along the way, he also provided jobs and support for so many friends - he kept them close to him and brought so many people together," said his daughter, Victoria, yesterday.

[robert99]

For those interested in his words the last writings I have from Alan Woods was on the Harville formula.
Ever helpful and no mention of his illness.

Message: 13
Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2007 00:06:23 +0800
From: "Alan woods" <alan@assanzon.com>
Subject: [AusRace] Harville formula
To: "AusRace Mailing List" <ausrace@it.net.au>
Message-ID:
<3A7EE43EB384384993E52ABA3C8034628A67D3@exchangend0 2.pataw.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
From: On Behalf Of Robert J Ford

If you presume that the chances of placing are directly proportional to
the
win odds (which are only estimates in themselves) then
the Harville formula gives the 2/1 horse a 41% chance of placing second
to a
4/1 horse, and 71 % chance of placing third to two 4/1 horses.

So for three places, the 2/1 horse has a total of 33 + 41 +71 = 145%
chance
of actually placing in a 300% book, or a 48% chance in a 100% book.

So the odds favour the bookie by 71- 48 = 23%.

If the fraction is 1/4, then the odds still favour the bookie by 66 - 48
=
18%.

If you discount the Harville place formula by say 0.8 it is even worse.

As you seem aware by the .8 you mention above the Harville formula bears
little relation to reality in terms of a horses place chances.

The authors who first pointed this out were Henery - Stern ( sic ) but
John Bacon-Shone also co-wrote some papers on the subject many years
ago.

alan

Alan,

Thanks for reminding me. Was it you who posted here on that in 2001 - the
years fly by ?

Yes there are errors and complications but I wanted to start and find any
generalisations thre might be using as simple a way as proves necessary.
Refinement might have to come much later.

The academic type studies are based on what happens to places in actual
percentages over a series of races and based on objective win odds.
They do represent an average effect for the long term(which is good) but do
not deal with individual races where the each way price factor and field
size etc play a part for returns on that particular race - and gets lost in
the averaging. You might also need a whole series of alpha values for
different race types and conditions for practical application.

A simpler starting point could be to use the ranking of the horses in the
betting eg USA 2002 studies show over a series of races:

Favourite places 58% of time
2nd rank 42%
3rd rank 31%
4th rank 23% etc

How does that compare with Oz racing?

You can then look at the actual horse and trainer record to see how often
and when it places, as compared to winning, and adjust the above
percentages. Its public win price then does not enter the equation.

regards,
Robert





------------------------------

[Foolish Pleasure]

WOW Ian you picked up one of my threads fr 2004.
I am The Actuary at MW.

Zeljko Ranogajec - Australian Croat with a huge reputation believed to have won over $10m on betfair alone last year.

This is a name people should be familiar with,
he is responsible for employing the benter/woods type of sim software in the North American racing. Man singlehandedly controls the prices of a lot of horse races.

[First_Place]

I did not realize who this Alan Woods was until I began to read the thread. It was THE Alan Woods.

My sympathies go out to his family and loved ones.

RIP sir.

FP

p.s. Btw, anyone know what Alan's modus operandi was, i.e. pace handicapping, speed handicapping, etc.? Or was it an eclectic mix of all the above (like yours truly uses)?

[arkansasman]

Zeljko Ranogajec - Australian Croat with a huge reputation believed to have won over $10m on betfair alone last year.

Zeljko Ranogajec = John Wilson

[Pace Cap'n]

p.s. Btw, anyone know what Alan's modus operandi was, i.e. pace handicapping, speed handicapping, etc.? Or was it an eclectic mix of all the above (like yours truly uses)?

See post #3 at...

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=480261#post480261 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=480261#post480261)

[arkansasman]

Super-punter Woods quietly masterminded a revolution

http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/news/news20080130d.asp

[First_Place]

Thanks gentlemen.

FP

[bigmack]

Lengthy article:
http://www.tonywilson.com.au/writing/alanwoods.php

[DanG]

RIP Alan and sincere condolences to your family.

That period of 87 to the early 90’s in Hong Kong would have made a fantastic movie script and even more remarkable in that it was factual.

The next time someone suggests a computer model can’t beat racing (and I mean BEAT racing) refer them to Woods, Benter and the infamous Australian who was named like a Bond character “Mr. J”.

Woods; A true legend in the world of gambling. :ThmbUp:

[First_Place]

I'm curious to know if (Alan) is THE big bettor that Andy Beyer mentions in his book (Beyer on Speed)? You know, the chapter dealing with his trip "down under."

FP

[Premier Turf Club]

WOW Ian you picked up one of my threads fr 2004.
I am The Actuary at MW.

Zeljko Ranogajec - Australian Croat with a huge reputation believed to have won over $10m on betfair alone last year.

This is a name people should be familiar with,
he is responsible for employing the benter/woods type of sim software in the North American racing. Man singlehandedly controls the prices of a lot of horse races.

Yes, I have had more than a passing interest in the man for a long time. I played CRW for a couple of years, after having spent 3 years coming up (or trying to anyway) my black box. I got close, but not close enough. I liken it to a club pro that can shoot 72. Very good compared to the general public, but you'll never make a living on the PGA tour. Having played at the highest level for a couple of years (not necessarily in terms of $$$ but in terms of technology and approach) I figured it would be cool to be on the other side catering to the true hard-core player. Again not necessarily in terms of monies wagered but passion and approach.

It's probably safe to say I'm the only guy in the ADW business to have played CRW.

[maxwell]

This form of cancer must be very rare?

Amazing life! A true player; motivated by the action NOT the money.

He must have been a very :cool: dude.

R.I.P

[arkansasman]

This form of cancer must be very rare?

It happens in about 1 in 200 of all gastrointestinal malignancies.

[Hosshead]

He use to always reply to my emails prior to 6 months ago. Rest in Peace Alan.
John
You must feel grateful to have had the opportunity for a personal exchange of thoughts and ideas with THE Sir Edmund Hillary of Handicapping.
He opened a window to the top of the world.

[steveb]

Zeljko Ranogajec = John Wilson

Arkansasman, who is John Wilson?

Do not understand your ZR=JW

Whatever, AW is on record as saying, that in his opinion, ZR is the greatest gambler that ever lived!
Big praise indeed.

SteveB

[arkansasman]

Arkansasman, who is John Wilson?


Steve,

Google the 2 names and read the link about Consultants Bidding.

John

[arkansasman]

You must feel grateful to have had the opportunity for a personal exchange of thoughts and ideas with THE Sir Edmund Hillary of Handicapping.
He opened a window to the top of the world.

Hoss,

I do feel very grateful.

John

[arkansasman]

This mentions Bill Benter and Zeljko Ranogajec.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23145725-5013405,00.html

[steveb]

This mentions Bill Benter and Zeljko Ranogajec.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23145725-5013405,00.html



and if you were to click on that link to the right of that story is .... Gai's saddest day after top colt put down (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23140237-5013405,00.html)

she is perhaps australias premier trainer and is married to the waterhouse mentioned in that pdf you directed me too, who is perhaps australia's biggest on course bookmaker, and somebody aw did not like one little bit for some reason. perhaps because he reckons he is a crook
waterhouse had been suspended for something like 10 or more years for having prior knowledge of a ring in(a top horse substituted for an inferior one)