9th @ Mountaineer 1/26/2008 (who hit the big bets?)

[njcurveball]

Perhaps some "Professor" made a killing on this race?

In my mind these prices came back wayyyy short and it was curious how the other horses simply dropped back!

#8 wins as the favorite at 4-5. #10 battles all the way down the stretch and finishes 2nd at 21-1. #9 comes outside other tiring horses and finishes 3rd at 50-1! #6 gets up for 4th at 7-1.

Now this was a route race and no one that I know bets heavy on the 8-9-10 box in route races.

The exacta comes back $38, the trifecta $408, and the super $1,595. This was a 10 horse field.

Is it me? Do these prices sound right to anyone? #1 (6-1), #2(10-1), #3 (12-1), #4 (13-1), #7 (10-1) all off the ticket.

What did I miss?

Jim

[Chris Longshot]

Yeah I couldn't believe the payout either, that was high way robbery, I was 1 horse out of the super myself, just didn't have the #10 horse in my selections.:bang:

If no one hit that super, it would have been a lot more, the mnr loves to show the huge payout when they know no one has it!!!!

[garyoz]

How much was in the win pool? (and the other pools for that matter) Sometimes there are real overlays in the win pool with the exotic pools being more efficiently priced. A couple hundred bucks in the win pool can shift odds at small tracks. The 21-1 win odds on the second horse probably didn't reflect its likelihood of running second (making it seem less probable than it may have been). Also the heavy favorite (and 4/5 is a big favorite at MNR) gets keyed. Doesn't take many favorite X second horse X all x all bets to drive down prices. So my guess would be small pool size and the realtionship to win odds combined with a heavy favorite created what seems skewed payments. Now if the chalk ran out of the money or didn't win, you would have seen big balloons, the flip-side of the situation. IMHO for what it is worth. Win odds are not necessarily good surrogates for estimating exotic payments, better off monitoring the exacta payoffs.

[njcurveball]

The 21-1 win odds on the second horse probably didn't reflect its likelihood of running second (making it seem less probable than it may have been). .


The place horse paid $17.20 for place and $8.40 for show.

The show horse paid $19.40 to show.

Win odds were pretty accurate. These were the 2 of the 3 longest shots on the board 2nd and 3rd.

#9 was 20-1 Morning Line, #10 was 30-1 morning line. I don't recall Mark or Nancy even mentioning either one has a chance.

[shanta]

Winner was ridden by top jock in race. Place horse goes from Pierre Malhot to Ricardo F who arguably is 2nd best jock in race. Those 2 combined are 11/51.Rest of field jocks combined 6/97 this year.

Stokes,Whitney,Speith etc not in race. While the cat's away ........

Whomever "knew" the 10 runs grabbed the ex and tri.Nice score.

Miserable rat bas*****

[njcurveball]

I guess it is also of note that #2 Deputy Express opened at 5-2 in this race. I did a double and triple take and saw no form and passed on that one, the odds drifted up to 10-1 at race time and the horse never picked up his feet.

Trifecta pool was $59,660, Superfecta pool was $21,290.

"House" exacta (3.6 * 17.2) = 61.92

"House" trifecta (3.6 * 17.2 * 19.4) = 1201.25

If I were in charge there, I would be studying a printout of betting patterns on the race right now.


Jim

[RXB]

First race at Aqu, winner paid $3.30, 28/1 in 2nd, ex paid $49.

7th race at GP, winner paid $4.00, 50/1 in 2nd, ex paid $71.

Friday's 7th at Aqu, winner paid $3.20, 24/1 in 2nd, ex paid $45.

[RXB]

Oh, and the #9 horse, although 50/1 to win, had finished third in 10 of his 32 career races. People do notice these things and wager accordingly.

Maybe hold off on calling the feds.

[Chris Longshot]

Very astute RXB, consistently in the money before going out of form, #9 also exited a key race, ran against a bias 2 starts back, ran in slop for another start, trainer nailed third the other night at big odds with a FTS, the horse was live as well as the barn, but the #10 horse had no idea couldn't make a case for him other than it seem the 10 horse was in the money all night!!!! good post

[garyoz]

ATR Pro (www.homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm) has been often discussed on this Board. It provides a great way to track pools, including the range of potential place and show prices. You can arbitrage the low exacta payoff ($38) by seeing if there is value in the place or show pools. I think exacta pools are typically "more efficient" than place or show pools. I don't have any evidence proving that, just IMHO.

I highly recommend using ATR if you are playing from home--cost of $99 per year with a free trial period. There have been many comments on the board about the application, so do a search if interested.

[RXB]

Very astute RXB, consistently in the money before going out of form, #9 also exited a key race, ran against a bias 2 starts back, ran in slop for another start, trainer nailed third the other night at big odds with a FTS, the horse was live as well as the barn, but the #10 horse had no idea couldn't make a case for him other than it seem the 10 horse was in the money all night!!!! good post

The other thing is, the #10 was coming out of the same race as the winner. And he did finish in the top half of the field in that race, and was 3rd in the race before that.

Normally, with a 4/5 over a 21/1 I'd expect the perfecta to pay around $45. So $38 isn't outrageously low, especially with a same-race angle.