calibration handicapping the next level

[shoelessjoe]

I just bought this book by Jim Lehane and it's a very worthwhile read.Shoeless

[russowen77]

I sure agree. That book and "Pace makes the race" opened my eyes.

[Charlie]

I own a ton of books on handicapping, but as I've said before on this forum, Lehane's Calibration Handicapping in my opinion is "tops". While I am at it, let me mention the worst book I have. That being, Small Track Betting by Richardson.

[Capper Al]

Okay, what's so good about the book?

[russowen77]

IMO, his redline idea points heavily to a horse coming into form and it is easy to understand and finds some nice horses others overlook. He has a lot of good ideas in there that are showing to have real quality to me.

[Tom]

He is one of the best kept secrets out there, IMHO.

[nagwa]

excellent book, jim, is very helpful.. are there any plans for a new update.

[timtam]

I remember a few years ago there was a web site for calibration handicappng

and he used to supply a couple of free picks for certain race dates.

I don't know if the site is still available but usually if he had a horse on the

site it was worth at least a look.

[Tom Barrister]

The site is available.

Calibration Handicapping (http://www.free-horseracing-info.com)

[russowen77]

excellent book, jim, is very helpful.. are there any plans for a new update.
i don't know but if he writes it I will buy it. A true bargin imo and could be used easily by just the casual player if one wanted to skip the valuation part and just go for winners. I have many friends who just love going and don't expect long term goals but would love to have some times to talk a little smack and that book will get you some looking at horses others may not and his book is great even for them. I am like many members here and have a lot of written data and I think that book is the best value of all of them.

[Zaf]

I have 100's of handicapping books on my shelf, and honestly I have to tell you, Calibration Handicapping is one of the best. I recommend it.

Z

[DanG]

I have 100's of handicapping books on my shelf, and honestly I have to tell you, Calibration Handicapping is one of the best. I recommend it.
Z
Could not agree more Zaf!

Thanks to a PA thread a while back where I took CJ’s (I believe it was) advice when recommending the book as a must have. :ThmbUp:

[shoelessjoe]

The book I have is the 3rd edition and was rewritten in 2002 and his red scan technique is quite good which Jim said was one of the reasons that he updated it.Shoeless

[Overlay]

I'm confused by some of the information on the website. On the one hand, there's this:

"Sidebar: no matter how many copies I sell, the odds are not reduced on the horses this book points out. This is amazing proof that the general public overlooks and will always overlook the camouflaged value plays that "Calibration Handicapping - The Next Level" specializes in uncovering."

This wording seems to rely for continued profitability on the belief that the public will never catch on to the angles or moves on which the method is based. But later, the site says:

"These include establishing value lines, which is covered extensively, including for all of the example races."

Does this mean deriving acceptable odds for all horses in a race, or only those that Calibration Handicapping isolates? And how does that square with relying on lack of public awareness? (To me, one of the main advantages of a full-field oddsline is that you no longer have to worry about whether the public is keying on any one particular horse and driving its odds down below fair value, since the oddsline then gives you a solid foundation for either not betting the horse at all, or else switching to another horse in the race that is being underbet in comparison to its true winning chances.)

[chrisl]

One of the most dog eared books I own. Calibration Handicapping and Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping, really helped my confidence, in what is going on in understanding a race..Not a AD just my humble opinion.

[Pickwick]

Thanks for all the comments in this (unsolicited) thread begun by shoelessjoe (Jackson), who is my buddy as are a number of others who made replies that are members of C.J.’s group.

I know this is not the place to advertise one’s products, unless payment is made to do so.

But I just want to answer a couple of questions.

Nagwa – I have no plans to write another book. "Calibration Handicapping – The Next Level" was written in the spring of 2002 and I have used the approaches and material contained within it in my daily play (nearly exclusively in NY) ever since.

Overlay – I can understand your question because of what looks like great information on your website about establishing fair odds lines.

In my book I suggest making odds lines only for contenders on which one is contemplating making wagers, either win (place) or exotics.

I don’t recommend taking the time to make lines for all entries; I see on your website that you do provide a service that accomplishes that, which if able to be done quickly (and I am certain it is in your service) can be quite valuable.

I simply want to set an "about" value line or odds for my contenders, above which I don’t consider them value plays or at least "as good as" plays.

Due to ongoing health issues I haven’t been able to write new material for my main website: www.free-horseracing-info.com

But I do keep the book up for sale on the website as well at Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas.

Because of not advertising I don’t sell nearly as many copies of “Calibration Handicapping – The Next Level” anymore, but I do stand on a couple of statements I’ve made.

First of all, despite the 60-day "free look" policy, the return rate has stood firm at 1%.

And secondly, I can personally attest to the fact that using the C.H. approach will unearth value payoffs despite a few thousand players having access to the book.

The content is pretty much about thinking out of the box and using approaches like what I call the red-scan-qualifying technique, which is found nowhere else, and is a very, very quick and very often accurate way to uncover horses that show potential for strong next-out performance.

I’m sure you and the majority of Pace Advantage members are well aware of horses that can be very live next-out contenders that in their last race have faded rather than gained ground to the finish.

One of my favorite and most lucrative plays (not a fantastic hit rate, but very often a good value play) is the speed/fade play.

What makes this play stronger is the addition of other crucial criteria, the best of which is the speed/fade/wide/even/drop play.

This is a horse that is close up to the pace either on it or within a couple of lengths of the leader(s) during the first two segments of a race or to approximately the pace call, which is 4F in sprints and 6F in most routes.

If that horse was wide around the final turn and into the stretch and then faded, while of course losing ground and lengths to the 8th pole, and from that point to the finish line remained the same number of lengths behind or up to 2 additional lengths behind, and also was taking a sensible drop in class in its return to the races within 45 days, it could very well have set itself up for a strong next-out performance.

Wide is good, and even finish is good.

And the final 220 yards or eighth of a mile (or from the furlong marker to the wire) is I believe one of the most overlooked key segments of any and all races.

My belief is that most of the money funneled into the pools comes from players who don’t know the value of the speed/fade play, especially if this play contains one or more of the other criteria and is also enhanced if the pace shape in the follow-up outing favors horses that project to be on, close to, or quickly approaching the lead at the pace call.

I’m also truly convinced that most of the money bet into the pools is a result of strong emphasis placed on speed figures, which simply measure final time. If you want to call the sheets speed figures then they are exceptions to an extent because of the additions included.

Anyway, I thank those that have replied in this thread and I wish I could do more writing in the form of newsletters and free picks with analysis, etc.

I would like, however, to attach to this post a couple of pdf files I have that could be interesting to some players.

One is on running style labeling, which I find to be very important in terms of getting an idea of the pace shape and pace pressure of a particular race.

While this exercise can correctly be considered subjective, and my approach does not break down labels into more than just E, EP, P and S, it has served me well.

The other file is simply an excerpt from William Quirin’s book about how to assign horses Quirin speed points.

Clear Skies and Fast Tracks,
-Jim

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/RS.pdf

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/QSP.pdf

[chrisl]

Hello Jim: Thank you for all your generous help, patience, and superior customer service. May I wish you the best of health..chrisl

[nagwa]

thanks jim,

excellent handicapping book,

best wishes

[russowen77]

Yhis book is wild. I was looking at the results of the 1st race at GP today--$66 dollar winner and couldn't see anything that would make me even think about the horse until I got to the PP's. It was the only horse in the race that would have been red lined.

[Pickwick]

I'm obviosly happy to hear of that red-scan bomb Russ; thanks.

Didn't play that track so I missed it.

Also, many thanks for the positive comments from nagwa, chrisl and all the others.

-Jim

[Tom]

I really like Jim's book and Jerry's (Guru) book because they were written by players and they talked to us like players. I could see myself sitting at the track talking the races out with these guys.

[russowen77]

I missed it also.I wasn't playing today. I just couldn't fine one clue to the winner to your technique blasted it.

Thank you so much. Almost every nice score this year has been a red scan something. I think it is because the public misses those horses but what do I know.

I made up the cost of the book ages ago and is one of my two all time favorites. Excellent work.

[cnollfan]

I was not familiar with this book at all, but bought it sight unseen based on this thread. Thanks for the suggestion.

[nagwa]

you wont go wrong with this very informative and handicapping gem..of a book..

[WhyWhyWhy]

I don’t recommend taking the time to make lines for all entries; I see on your website that you do provide a service that accomplishes that, which if able to be done quickly (and I am certain it is in your service) can be quite valuable.

I simply want to set an "about" value line or odds for my contenders, above which I don’t consider them value plays or at least "as good as" plays.

Pricing individual horses can be useful, but can also lead to tunnel vision. Lots of marginal 10-1 and 12-1 shots who wouldn't be rated wind up hitting the board too.



And secondly, I can personally attest to the fact that using the C.H. approach will unearth value payoffs despite a few thousand players having access to the book.

Either the methods are nonspecific and require further qualification for profitability, or a big bettor just hasn't gotten his hands on it yet.

Is there any way to standardize the selection process to where you can measure ROI on some angles that meet certain criteria?

[Pickwick]

Tom (holdingpattern) was nice enough to run some numbers through his database and came up with this information.

Hi Jim,

Ran 7 of the CH factors through the NY tracks from May 2005 through the beginning of Feb 2008:

Only looked at Dirt races:

There is no doubt that the key factor on the Dirt is the Smooth Fade-back (SFB).

The Work In Race (WIR) and Wide Out (WO) Plays by themselves are profitable. The Profile Play (Prof) is just shy of break even. All 3 of these plays incorporate or allow for the Smooth Fade back.

This isn't surprising when I think about it, but eliminating horses coming from an NPR (Negative Pace Race) race, significantly improve the results for the WO and Profile factors. Interestingly, the WIR wasn't impacted by the removal of those type races.

So after forcing the WIR play to use only SFB the ROI jumped up very nicely.

No other handicapping factors were used and I must say stellar results.

__________________________________________________ _____________

This is why I am a fan of the SFB plays, including one going today (2/21/08) at AQU in Race 5, #3 Nkosi Reigns.

This gelding has very competitive speed but will likely press the pace, drops in class for stellar connections (McLaughlin with Garcia back in the saddle), and is a very nice-looking SFB play.

The M/L made for Nkosi Reigns by Eric Donovan is 8-1 in what looks like a competitive affair.

I think fair odds on this one are 4-1, and I’ll be on him if he’s close to that figure.

[Hosshead]

Do you have your own specific definition of a "Negative Pace Race" ?

Thanks, ------- Hoss

[cj]

Do you have your own specific definition of a "Negative Pace Race" ?

Thanks, ------- Hoss

Using my numbers, these are races which have a pace figure slower than the speed figure. I believe Storm Cadet coined the term on my board against my protests. :D

[Pickwick]

That's how I identify NPR's and they are useful in conjunction with C.J.'s late pace figure also.

[rrbauer]

Pickwick:
My belief is that most of the money funneled into the pools comes from players who don’t know the value of the speed/fade play, especially if this play contains one or more of the other criteria and is also enhanced if the pace shape in the follow-up outing favors horses that project to be on, close to, or quickly approaching the lead at the pace call.

I’m also truly convinced that most of the money bet into the pools is a result of strong emphasis placed on speed figures, which simply measure final time. If you want to call the sheets speed figures then they are exceptions to an extent because of the additions included.

Comment:
Amen! The clearest record, race after race, of the crowd chasing its tail is the tote board. People who think (and bet) with some imagination using information gleaned from between the lines (or information that is below the surface) and who refuse to be foolish where their money is concerned know about the rewards from their efforts. Thinking for yourself and putting that to work on a daily basis is a threshold that many folks don't even try to cross.

[John]

Once someone asked me if I had to leave earth to go to another planet what three books would I take with me.

The first is Jim's "Calibration Handicapping - The Next Level"

I can't leave until CJ writes a book. [ my second choice ]

:) :) :)

[shoelessjoe]

Thanks to CJ'S numbers and Jim's book it has helped turn me into a winning player.This coming from someone who for the last couple of years has been told by quite a few people that I was searching for the holy grail,they were right.Shoeless

[russowen77]

Thanks to CJ'S numbers and Jim's book it has helped turn me into a winning player.This coming from someone who for the last couple of years has been told by quite a few people that I was searching for the holy grail,they were right.Shoeless
Would someone please explain to me about CJ's numbers.

I keep hearing about the things and haven't got a clue. I assume he is in the Air Force or the gov but I don't know anythning else.

The more data I have the better I do. The races where people give free figures have proven to me to be more profitable except for maidens-my thing.

I would sure love to give those figs a run but where are they and how do you deploy them?

Someone please help an old Nam Vet out an explain these things.

Also, Has anyone done any work in how much your base betting unit needs to be to cover x handicapping costs. The best I have done is with additional data but I don't have a clue what it takes to cover the costs. Right now I am playing about 8 races a day primarily at one track. I don't know the percent but for the year I am down $4.01. I am up several Marker's Marks etc if food and drink counts but counting expenses,parkng gas etc, I am down $4.01. Obviously, it is a good thing I still have other skils. :D

When I say additional data I will give an example. I have a positive profit when I combine my stuff with the Kruk figs in certain type of races. The flash card is what is good for me. Ok, they can help in say 2 races a card, by help I mean point you to 1 or 2 for me as I am an exacta bettor, part wheels with 2 horses. Say 40% of the time they will lead me to a horse that will run either 1 or 2 strongly enough for him to be one of my two keys in a part wheel. All my other stuff gives me another 40% for the key horse plus I have 2 additional horses running second. This is where I lose it. I don't know here or even how to put it.

i guess i am asking what x% of wins is needed for x% of expense.

My handicapping seems to be ok but my betting sucks right now.

Thanks for any and all help.

[WhyWhyWhy]

That's great if you have an edge, but once you publish it, people are going to pile on, accumulate money, and eventually the prices will drop. With six-figure pools there's more room for people to profit until then, but sooner or later they get smarter.

At smaller tracks you begin cutting your payoffs once you bet even $100, which means your "on paper" ROI has to be much higher than break-even before you can translate that into real profits.

[John]

Russowen77

Go to "Pacefigures.com" CJ explains his numbers, But, I don't think he can sign you up. CJ has long reached his quota...and there is a waiting list,I'm sure.

[russowen77]

thanks for the data

[CapperLou]

Once someone asked me if I had to leave earth to go to another planet what three books would I take with me.

The first is Jim's "Calibration Handicapping - The Next Level"

I can't leave until CJ writes a book. [ my second choice ]

:) :) :)

CJ's numbers are wonderful--IMO--even though have not used them over past year because I've cut way down on my play due to artificial surfaces.

I would like to know if any software is available for any angles of Calibration Handicapping?? I respect Jim very much, but I know he has health issues which have prevented him from a software launch of the program. I have heard though that there are other angles from the program which are available elsewhere--please bring me up to date.

My main program JCapper, has been doing ok on artificial surfaces on the types of plays I make after reviewing much--so I'm going to get my situation updated there and start playing again on a regular basis.

Any suggestions would be appreciated regarding above. Btw, JCapper gave the Belmont winner an outside shot yesterday, but I played nothing in the race. With Lou Wolfson's passing last December, I thought BB would garner the Triple Crown this year, but Affirmed still sits there all these 30 years.

CapperLou

[Zaf]

Lou,

I have Equisim 5.0 and can import CJ's numbers into the Program. With the formula view I was able to program the Red Scan , SRE, and the PRO / Wir to some degree. If you are good with VBScript , I am sure you can program just about anything into Equisim's formula view.

Z

[Pickwick]

CapperLou,

You are right about CJ’s figures. There is so much valuable data packed tightly into his program with zero information overload present that it’s pretty amazing really.

I did have a software program/service called C.H. Data Service for a while, but the health issues you alluded to caused me to stop it back in March of ’05.

Three months later it was suggested to me by Joe Prunes to check out pacefigures.com and I was fortunate enough to get one of the last slots open at the time to join the ranks of pacefigures membership, and the evolution in value since then to the present has been remarkable, and I have been successful using C.J.’s data in conjunction with my own handicapping approaches.

So there is no software available at present regarding the Calibration Handicapping method of making money on the T-breds, and I hope there is not copyright infringement of any of the material being used by any other software program(s).

Although I was pretty certain that Big Brown would not win (didn’t project a last-place finish though – and I believe he would have finished last regardless of whether Kent eased him at the top of the lane or not) I was foolish to not consider the horse that certainly looked like the early leader – 5 Quirin points – thinking Coa aboard Tale Of Ekati could go by that one whenever he wanted to, and unfortunately Coa thought so also, to the extent that he allowed Garcia and Da’Tara to enjoy a scenario that results in a visit to the winner’s circle many times, that being a completely relaxed loose-on-the lead trip.

P.S. Nice going Zaf.

[CapperLou]

Lou,

I have Equisim 5.0 and can import CJ's numbers into the Program. With the formula view I was able to program the Red Scan , SRE, and the PRO / Wir to some degree. If you are good with VBScript , I am sure you can program just about anything into Equisim's formula view.

Z

I have the older version of Equisim and never upgraded because I'm not a person who can program.

[1GCFAN]

:) Re-borrowed Jim's book as my friends and I prepare to invade SAR the last weekend of July. IMO the smooth fade back SFB is one of the best angles.