Paceless races

[46zilzal]

It happens when one gets a field of closer types with no dyed in the wool speed type so the pace setter gets that role by default and does one two things: runs off or, more likely, collapses from a very unlikely leading role.

Indian Hawk appears to have that role here.

The feature at the Big A today has elements of this scenario.....

[RXB]

Paceless race? Silver Prospector has had the lead at the first call in his last 10 races (11, counting today). Indian Hawk has two wins in his recent races and they both came on the lead, and he's been 1st or 2nd at the 2f mark in 10 of his last 11 races.

And what a surprise-- they went 22-and-change with Silver Prospector leading and Indian Hawke pressing.

[46zilzal]

Paceless race? Silver Prospector has had the lead at the first call in his last 10 races (11, counting today). Indian Hawk has two wins in his recent races and they both came on the lead, and he's been 1st or 2nd at the 2f mark in 10 of his last 11 races.

And what a surprise-- they went 22-and-change with Silver Prospector leading and Indian Hawke pressing.
Yes a positional, not energy, front runner.

[RXB]

I understand, but the fact that they aren't likely to withstand their early efforts doesn't mean that the race is paceless.

[JustRalph]

Yes a positional, not energy, front runner.

That is right!!! He wasn't a front running winner he was a

forwardly placed losingly challenged type, who just happen to fall into the right place at the right time.............

[Great Communicator]

Indian Hawke bobbled at the start and never made the lead, but that's another legit way to beat the favorite. Well done if you cashed!

[46zilzal]

how about EFFECTIVE pace was not their and they still got it by default.

[Investorater]

When a horse has been manipulated up and down the class scale and/or chopped back and forth at different distances the recent record will make him look like an erratic horse with no consistent running style at the final call but sooner or later we get a line on him.The horse might be erratic but not necessarily.Certain trainers mismanage their charges in this manner because they are incompetent or they think they can confuse the public and build up odds in this way.

[mountainman]

For me, fractions and pace figs are a poor predictor of who will set the pace in a race completely devoid of speed. Afforded the rare opportunity,some sluggish horses will accelerate to the lead, while others run to habit and settle back into the herd. In such races, I look for a horse who has made the early lead (no matter HOW slow the splits) before, which at least shows a willingness to lead the pack. To my experience, however, straining to identify the speed in such races rarely leads to profits. Almost invariably, the lead is disputed, and the pacesetter can't relax no matter how soft the fractions. I do downgrade deep closers when a race includes no fronts whatsoever.

[point given]

For me, fractions and pace figs are a poor predictor of who will set the pace in a race completely devoid of speed. Afforded the rare opportunity,some sluggish horses will accelerate to the lead, while others run to habit and settle back into the herd. In such races, I look for a horse who has made the early lead (no matter HOW slow the splits) before, which at least shows a willingness to lead the pack. To my experience, however, straining to identify the speed in such races rarely leads to profits. Almost invariably, the lead is disputed, and the pacesetter can't relax no matter how soft the fractions. I do downgrade deep closers when a race includes no fronts whatsoever.

Agree, wholeheartedly with this type race not leading to profits for me too. I rarely play this type of race, as I cannot get a handle on it. I will however pay attention to post parade/warmup etc. to see if there is something that gets my attention, but rarely play such races ; same with races where I see lots of speed signed on. How can you tell which jock will be able to take back and pounce, instead of just betting the late runners ? Why not wait for a race/races, where you see something you like instead of forcing the issue ? :confused:

[DanG]

For me, fractions and pace figs are a poor predictor of who will set the pace in a race completely devoid of speed.
Agreed Mark;

The same logic that applies to velocity ratings also applies to final time ratings when the entire field is well below par. The figures become much less reliable.

As far as predicting position it does get skewed because we like to think were the only ones who’ve noticed the void of speed…but most jockeys see it, trainers, owners and sometimes the grooms 3rd cousin who slices deli meat mentions it.

[Investorater]

During a race the interrelationsip as determined by pace spells victory or defeat.A horse has only so much energy available to dispense and the correct incremental rationing of the energy is special to each thoroughbred to obtain the fastest time between 2 points.Pace analysis has to consider all horses and not just the likely contention.If a horse's pace characteristics show steady improvement and he's placed with a bunch that fit's his running style when he or she runs their best,you just might find yourself wagering with more confidence.

[samyn on the green]

This is embarrassingly horrific analysis. Perhaps caused by an over reliance on the computer to complete vital handicapping tasks.

This race was a speed overload race and in no way did Indian Hawke have a Lone Speed scenario. Take a look for yourself and it is as clear as day that there is a total of 3 speed horses entered including two need the lead speeds which were drawn in the 1/2 posts ensuring a hot pace. How can anybody miss the fact that Silver Prospecter was on the lead at the first call for his last six races, in fact he set a rather quick of 46 and change 3 of those times. After viewing this obvious fact how can anyone call Indian Hawke lone speed?

This pace over load of this race resulted in a hot 22 and change first 1/4 mile and the 1-2-3 runners at the 2nd call finishing in the bottom three spots at the wire. Anybody wagering with idea that a a wirejob was on tap would have ripped ticket after ticket.

[Tom]

how about EFFECTIVE pace was not their and they still got it by default.

What does that mean???? Not Their what?

[Tom]

Yes a positional, not energy, front runner.

Front runner suggest position, not energy distribution. I think you are refering to an early horse, as oppossed to a front ( of the pack) runner.