Mid-week NY....Wed.

[Suff]

Race 1.

Some of these Horses I know of. I put alot of maidens on Horse watch before they race... ( I monitor works at Belmont and Aqueduct daily... or as often as time allows.) And one that had shown a lil promise and had been talked up to me was NUDGITO... and I'm going to bet him tommorrow at somewhere around 65-1 or greater I'd imagine... I mean, I could go through some works that have fallen off his TAB... and touch on his pedigree... But nothing is gonna make you feel comfortable betting this horse off THOSE two zero's and 77 lengths combined loss's in only two races..... I believe the horse is gonna run himself on to the ticket tommorrow.... I'm looking at the race and trying to find the 1 , 2 or 3 horses I can use to insure I make money.. when NUDGITO does run himself onto the ticket tommorrow.

The have the 1 at 8-5... he's got 25 combined lengths loss's in his last two as well.... so there you go....These are the Bottom feeders.... After a Through Review I'm gonna mingle NUDGITO , in , around , over and through the 2, 7, 10 in race 1.

Race 2

4-2-1

Race 3

Revered Scholar trounces them

Race 4

NY Puddles... and I'm NOT sticking just to stick... Horse has 4 beyers in the 60's... 3 near 70 and three of four are on the INNER... and those 55k Claiming fields she faced are all horses that would be CHALK at ALLOW43Knw2 if they qualified... Jester Rehab and Lady Adare. IF in the first three races... anything is closing into the finish line... I might POUND this one at a healthy price. Note 108lbs.... 2 post.... all the breaks going her way already... ...... Forget that Vanned off comment... Horse fell in front of her... and was Vanned off as precaution... Filly is Fine.


Race 5

Winchime gets it done.


Race 9 the Finale

Hard luck loser Cherry Pepppers... gets softened up and Dusting of Powder Cleans up.


I like one Horse at GulfStream tommorrow... In the 7th

"love that man" ................. around 5ish to 1 .... romps.
he's AE... Needs to butt in.

[formula_2002]

Suff...can not get that inner dirt track to win for me...

I won't play it until I get something figured out..

when I get the time I'll compare the track configuration to others
NA tracks, however I dont think thats the problem.


Joe M

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

READ YOUR POST ABOUT NY PUDDLES . TOOK A LONG HARD LOOK AT HER . I LOVED PRO MOTION DAYS INNER TRACK RECORD OF
16-6-4-1 . SO HOOKED THEM UP IN EX

ALLWAYS GALD TO CASH BUT I THOUGHT IT WAS A LIITLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE . EX CAME BACK $62.00 & QU 30.00.

I WAS LOOKING FOR A LEAST $100.00 ON THE EX


JIMMY / ILS

[mudcat]

[Suff]

NYPUDDLES..................
I feel a lil vindicated... Because I took some good natured ribbing for liking this horse the last two months..... And the horse ran.... Had a 15-1 ML and went at 8-1....... and yes the exacta was light.... The 2nd race exacta was also light at $27.00.... really light............. I called from work to make another bet and heard my balance and thought thier musta been a Dead heat... the horse was almost 8-1 that ran 2nd...the FAV was off the ticket and he beat two 3-1's for 2nd... and I got $27.00 ?? I figured it or $45.00 give or take 5 bucks... but $27.00?....$111,000 carryover will attract some serious Money into the Ny pools Tommorrow...........Hopefully........ Last 100K pik6 carryover attracted $350,000 in new PIK6 money alone...we'll see

[Suff]

Originally posted by formula_2002
Suff...can not get that inner dirt track to win for me...

I won't play it until I get something figured out..

when I get the time I'll compare the track configuration to others
NA tracks, however I dont think thats the problem.


Joe M


I did'nt respond directly at first to your comment Formula Because I did'nt know quite what to say.... and after thinking about it for a couple of days.... I still don't. lol..........

I will say... That I was thinking ........that if I played as many picks as you... there is no way I can turn a Profit... I was thinking I'd probably be about a -50% return.....Give or take 10%.

I pick and choose what races I handicap... and bet... and share my anaylsis on....... The thing about Public handicappers and why they are considered successful at about a 20% clip... is they have to Handicap every race... they have no choice... the guy that works for the NYPOST can't just post selections for race's 3 , 4, 7 and 9......I'm sure if he could... he'd be a 30% handicapper...

But the nature of "Public Handicapping" is that you Post selctions for all the races on at least one card......Some do 2 or more cards a day........Thats a tough racket.. and I admire anyone that can turn ANY KIND of profit handicapping (CPU or not) that many races. 1% 6% or 10% profit....... does'nt matter... You make 50 selections and you make a profit... Your onto something....

Handicapping for public consumption, for a living.. or for sport, as I do... has many advantages.. that I think... Levels the playing field with the "CHOOSE AS THEY ENTER THE GATE" crowd.....

I Bet horses that I Handicap...I'm free from all the distractions of TOTE BOARD fear and manipulation of my wagers... I Don't worry that a horse I like is 11-1 and another is 3-2....... I've done my work... Thats the horse I landed on... thats the horse I call in.
I don't sit with my PP's and look down at them and up at the TOTE.. and than back at the PP's... wondering.. who do they like..? who are they betting in the double.? Who did they bet in PIK3's and 4's?........... I have greater success... Handicapping the card the night before.. writing down my picks.. and calling them in from work........ I think there are certainly Track bias's and other indicators that I miss by not being there... But as I said... the missed benefits of not being there are offset by the positive benefits of "betting who you Handicapp"......... When I bet who I handicapp...... I win. alot. As far as handicapping for public consumption....... its something I enjoy... and I hope to do more of later in life......

I'm not intentioinally tweaking those that do... but I suppose it is a lil tweak...But.... what good does it do anyone for you to post a horse you like on the PA selections Forum with 2 minutes to post? Is anyone sitting on Paceadvantage.com,,, at thier browser,,, constantly refreshing it... on the edge of thier seat waiting for these selections? 100% of the people that read those posts... do so after the race has run.......So I'm unsure what the substance of the post is?

1. I think posting the night before the races... or early enough in the day... affords me the opportunity to get feedback on the way I see a race unfolding

2. Gives me an opportunity to share some of my efforts with people that share thier effort with me.

3. Allows me to participate with like minded people in a Passion for thoroughbred racing.

4. Allows me to share, after many years of experience .how good or bad I've gotten at Handicapping horse races.....Like Train sets, Chess... checkers...Bowling, Knitting... whatever the interest... I've worked at it.. I want to be good at it.. and its nice to be recognized by my peers as being good at it.

[formula_2002]

Suff, a lot of thinking going on there..I couldn't possibly resond to every thought, as interesting as they are.

After two typed paragraphs, my right hand has to hit a numeric pad.

Who do you 'cap for?

[Suff]

Originally posted by formula_2002
pad.

Who do you 'cap for?

lol......... I cap here? Don't I? I throw up 3-5 races a week in great detail and mingle in a few "Numbers" I like during the week....I guess you missed the part about "Recognized by my peers"....... thats funny... You made me laugh hard... Its a humbling thing this horse racing....Stupid me... I actually thought people read my posts...... what was I thinking?

[formula_2002]

THAT IS FUNNY!!!

i THOUGHT YOU MENT YOU GOT PAID ($) FOR 'CAPPING.

[mudcat]

I get notified when Suff post if i'm on line, I bet his picks, do pretty good sometimes.

[stuball]

Hi Suff

Sorry to hear about your injury. Hope all goes well with recovery.
I am just recuperating from Brochittus and Pneumonia. Plus have to rebuild my desktop and have a new server.(changed to earthlink cable.) All just before my birthday---Oh well maybe Suff can come up with that 30 or 40 to 1 shot for my birthday present.
lol

Have a nice day all !!!

Stuball