Name the ONLY 20% Win Sire in North America

[Turfday]

Using data going back to Jan. 1, 1995 and to date, what North American-bred sire is the ONLY sire with more than 1,000 starters (not individual starters, but offspring who have run in more than 1,000 races) with 20% or more total winners in this time period?

Currently, no other sire in North America with more than 1,000 total races run by offspring has 20% winners or more EXCEPT this sire.

The answer is not Danzig, Storm Cat or Mr. Prospector.

A little hint for pedigree pundits. His female family traces back to one of the greatest in the stud book.

This sire's offspring have performed better in sprints than routes or turf.


BONUS: Even with the top North American win percentage based on the 1,000 + number of races started by offspring, this sire's winners still AVERAGE paying $10.00 or more.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Carson City.

[russowen77]

Exactly, What are you talking about. I don't think any American sire would last long if they didn't throw 20% winners by foal. I don't care for % by starters.

Name one that has 1000 foals, there are 6 on the top 70 list for 2007 sires, that doesn't at least throw 20% winners. Royal Academy, Thunder Gulch, Carson City (who died in 2004), and Honor and Glory all qualify.

I must be seriously confused here

[RXB]

The horse's progeny have won 20% of their starts.

[russowen77]

The horse's progeny have won 20% of their starts.

Ok. I'll pick one. Royal Academy. 1,138 named foals. 83% of his progeny have started and 55% have been winners. That is what is confusing to me.

[Turfday]

This sire's offspring (progeny) have an aggregate total of more than 1,000 starts. The sire has not had more than 1,000 individual starters.

As a hypothetical example, if the sire had 100 total starters (horses get to the races), those individual starters made a total of 1,000 or more individual starts.

[Burls]

I'll take a shot.

AP Indy

[RXB]

I don't think so. Not precocious enough. To win 20% of their starts, they've got to be very fast so they win early. And classy enough that they don't run too many races. Drunken Horseplayer has posted Carson City and that sounds more like it. Also fits the hints that Bob offered-- better at sprinting and out of a Blushing Groom mare whose own dam was sired by Nijinsky.

[cmoore]

How about Elusive Quality, Montbrook or Mr Greeley???

[George Sands]

West Acre?

[RXB]

Mr. Greeley doesn't throw a high % of debut winners. Montbrook isn't good enough. Elusive Quality throws a lot of winners early and his female line traces to Northern Dancer, so that's possible. And, he hasn't been around as long, which will help to keep the % high. Distorted Humor would fit that very same profile-- the Dancer female line and the high early win %.

In Excess gets a high % of winners but there's nothing too special in his near female line and I don't think he would get $10 average payout as they bet his progeny off the board most of the time in California. And he's been around a little longer, which lessens the likelihood of maintaining a 20% clip.

[RXB]

Okay, having thought about it, I'm going to make my guess: Successful Appeal. He has a big first-out %, his horses have class but he's still flown under the radar somewhat. People don't think of him as a big-name sire. And he hasn't been around all that long.

There's my guess.

[RXB]

Oh, and his female line traces back to both Mr. Prospector and The Greatest.

[cmoore]

Okay, having thought about it, I'm going to make my guess: Successful Appeal. He has a big first-out %, his horses have class but he's still flown under the radar somewhat. People don't think of him as a big-name sire. And he hasn't been around all that long.

There's my guess.

First year at stud was 2001. Stats according to Turfday go back to 1995.

[cmoore]

My 4th guess is Salt Lake...

[RXB]

First year at stud was 2001. Stats according to Turfday go back to 1995.

Yes, but that doesn't mean the sire has to have been active since 1995. And as I mentioned, fewer starts = more likelihood of being able to have a very high win rate. (The other thing I was assuming is that we're talking about an active sire. Carson City, for example, is dead.)

But, now that I think about it more, I just can't see Successful Appeal being 20%. And he does alright with routers, too.

[RXB]

My 4th guess is Salt Lake...

No way. Salt Lake doesn't get anything near 20% winners.

It's got to be a fairly classy sire. You can't end up with a bunch of horses stringing out their career as claimers. And the younger the progeny, the better. Has to have a huge debut win %, too.

[Tee]

Cherokee Run?

[rokitman]

I don't believe the sire has neccessarily been bangin' chicks since 1995. The research on the question was back to Jan 1, 1995. That's what Turfday's DB goes back to, as he has stated before and is shown on their site.

[russowen77]

I didn't fully understand the question. That would include repeat winners and I don't track that.

I keep tabs on about 150 stallions or so. As far as high % winners but not including multiple winners here are my standouts.

The % is from named foals.
Petionville--71%
Broad Bush--68
Not for Love--67
Smart Strike --67
Successful Appeal--- 66

I will be interested to see his answer.

[Imriledup]

The 2 sires that come to my mind immediately that don't have that many runners who seem to always win are Unusual Heat and Benchmark.

[parlay]

Boundary
Mutakdim

[Turfday]

Correct answer....................WEST ACRE.

[russowen77]

Correct answer....................WEST ACRE.
Would you care to share your stats with us. He has had 199 named foals and they have produced 317 wins for 5,905k. That is a nice winners to named foal ratio but not out of this world. He has done very well for an unraced stallion.

I just grabbed a stallion but Petionville had 385 named foals during about the same time frame and he had 739 winners for 18, 517k winnings and we are only talking a 15k horse here.

[Turfday]

We are a strategic partner of Equibase and an authorized data provider of theirs. We use their data at our website.

WEST ACRE

His offspring have made 1,677 starts (note: as of Jan. 22, 2008) with 331 wins

(244 sprint wins, 66 route wins, 21 turf wins)

(inconsequentially to the question, he has had 47% ITM)

[russowen77]

Thanks- that is some good data. I need to check that out more.

[northerndancer]

I claimed my first West Acre this year and she is fantastic..... professional, sensible, great to be around and tries her heart out..... since claiming her I have really paid attention to the West Acre's and I really like what I see...... they will turf, dirt, sprint, route do not know aobut synthetic yet..... for $5,000 a great value.

[DrugS]

In case anyone was wondering - West Acre retired from racing unraced.

He only got a shot as a stallion because of the way his two sisters produced.

He was by Forty Niner out of a dam named Narrate.

His mother Narrate produced 11 foals - 9 of which were males - 2 of which females.

The two females were named Yarn and Preach. Yarn is the dam of major stallion Tale of the Cat. Preach is the dam of major stallion Pulpit.

[russowen77]

He is a pretty rascal also and that helps.

[cmoore]

Here's information on West Acre over the last 3 years....

http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports/WestAcreSireReport.PDF