...10-DAY CONTEST...FINAL DAY...1/23...Turfway R8...

[MakinItHappen]

Today's Top Turf Paradise Tout

HUGGINTHERAIL....$152.00 BOOM! $20 on his nose, you say!

Contest Standings Entering The FINAL DAY:

HugginTheRail..$278.00
Rknhrse.............$188.10
Shots................$179.80
098Poi...............$168.50
Omalley.............$156.20
MakinItHappen....$131.00
Judd..................$115.50
Gambler147.........$111.80
RyeSteve...........$105.90
Sally...................$88.60
ParShooter...........$82.90
FlyinInLate...........$68.60
JakeW.................$66.80
PorkChop.............$64.80
OneFast99...........$50.00
Rookie.................$25.20
Dylbert................$18.30
Canleakid..............$0.00
SmokinJoe.............$0.00
Sufan...................$0.00
Hajck Hillstrom.......$0.00
Sal......................$0.00
Burls....................$0.00


Link To Race of The Day FREE PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/daily-contest/index.html

Best of Luck To Everyone in The Finale!

MakinItHappen

[porkchop]

TURFWAY RACE 8 1/23

$20.00 WIN ON #5 GUANAHANI

THAT WAS FUN GLAD I PLAYED THANKS

[ryesteve]

$2 Exactas 3,10 / 3,10,12

R7/R8
$2 DD 4,5 / 3
$1 DD 4,5 / 10

R8/R9
$1 DD 3,10 / 2,3,7

[shots]

$2 exbx 1,7,12
$2 exbx 1,9
$2 exbx 9,12

[rcknhrse]

I am hoping the "z" pattern will get #7 home

$10 wp #7

And the comment on her most recent start "in hand..." always brings to mind the 2005 JCGP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MXWT9kHLS4

[jakew]

$20 win #10

[098poi]

Turfway R8

$1 tri

3,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7

$1 tri

7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7

$2 tri

7 / 3 / 2

[dylbert]

Thanks for great contest & spirited competition... Let's Go Bombing in Bluegrass State! ;)

$0.10 Superfecta P/W: 7,10 // 7,10 // 2,3,9 // ALL = $4.80

$0.10 Superfecta P/W: 3,9 // 3,9 // 7,10 // ALL = $3.20

$0.10 Superfecta P/W: 3,9 // 7,10 // 3,9 // 7,10 = $0.40

$0.10 Superfecta P/W: 7,10 // 3,9 // 7,10 // 3,9 = $0.40

$0.10 Superfecta P/W: 7 // 3,9 // 2 // 10 = $0.20

$1 Trifecta P/W: 3,9 // 3,9,12 // 3,6,9,12 = $8.00

$1 Trifecta P/W: 10 // 2 // 3,7,9 = $3.00

As Harvey Pack exclaims, "May the horse be with you."

[HuggingTheRail]

$7 exa box 2-3

$3 exa box 3-10

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Dime Superfectas

5,9,12 - 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,11,12 - 5,9,12 - 3,5,9,12 = $18.60

5 - 3,9 - 7 - 1,2,3,9,11,12 = $1.00

[omalley]

Turfway R8
$20 win #7

[MakinItHappen]

Turfway Park
Race #8
1 Mile
3 year old fillies
Allow. $24k nw1x

Field of 11

Rather contentious group. All entries within 13.4 Prime Power points of each other.

Tepid favorite at 7-2 ML is the 12 Through The Clouds. Favorites win 40% of these RaceTypes at Turfway but the 12 hole is no treat. She does have the desired "P" running style which wins 40% of these RaceTypes at Turfway. She also possess a 2 pt. Prime Power edge over the next best.

Despite the fact that favorites ae winning 40% of this RaceType and 90% of the winners of this RaceType are 5-1 or lower, on first blush, this race looks rather wide open to me.

Best of Luck To Everyone In Decipering This One Today!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

In analyzing this race, I would like to answer the following questions and thought it might be an interesting group excercise. I would appreciate input from others on the following:

1) This RaceType typically favors mid-pack closers (P's). There are 4 fillies with a P running style entered. Which of those 4 is best positioned to prevail today?

2) Who will likely set the pace and is there enough speed in the race to set it up for a P horse?

3) Any real strong or hot jockey/trainer combo's that deserve special consideration in this race?

4) Which of the entries appears positioned to improve today?

Thanks in Advance to Anyone with Thoughts and Input on Any of These Q's! Also, please feel free to interject other relevant questions for group input!

Best of Luck Today Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[ryesteve]

Unfortunately, I didn't bring my numbers to work with me, so I can't chime in... except that I don't know if I would agree that this racetype favors a presser; according to the BRIS stats at the end of the PPs, E's have a slightly higher IV. This is where I'd have a hard time rationalizing the past stats; why would E's and P's be good, but EP's be bad?

[parshooter]

race 8 -turfway
$10 exacta 9/2-3

keep up the good work guys - enjoyable
:ThmbUp:

[sally]

I think there is plenty of speed in this race but I don't really see any dominate speed (unless that #11 horse proves me wrong :D ) ...so that sets it up for an off the pace or closer. the 2 E/P types both have nice wins at the distance, but at a Maiden Claimer level...

I think the #9 horse is best when you look at jockey/trainer stats, she has won at the distance- handily- has a decent 5f work too- she's fit. But looking over all these horses, some have won, some have performed well at this level....hey--this is a dart board race folks!! So how do you bet a dartboard race? No matter who wins we'll all look back and find reasons for it--

I like the #3 Miss Mafioso-- she ran at this level and distance last time out and missed by only a half length-gamely- if I read the form right it was a fast pace-- if there's a good amount of speed in this race then she should do well right?

But heck--how to bet it-- awww,

$2 ex bx 3-9-11 =$12

$8 to win on #3 Miss Mafioso

:cool:

[MakinItHappen]

Unfortunately, I didn't bring my numbers to work with me, so I can't chime in... except that I don't know if I would agree that this racetype favors a presser; according to the BRIS stats at the end of the PPs, E's have a slightly higher IV. This is where I'd have a hard time rationalizing the past stats; why would E's and P's be good, but EP's be bad?

Your points are well taken and very valid. This is not absolutely crystal clear to me either...:lol: ... but I will attempt to explain.

The reason I said that this RaceType typically favors a P Style horse or Presser is because they win 40% of this RaceType (126 races in sample) they earned the designation of "++" which Bris defines as "The Best (most successful) run style at this track/distance. It is based upon impact value and % won."

Impact Value (IV) is a mathematical representation of the effectiveness of a running style. The higher the better.

So in today's ROTD we have somewhat conflicting information regarding running styles:

1) Bris tells us that P's win 40% (vs. 27% for E's) of these races and is the Best/Most Successful run style, yet
2) Bris also tells us the E's have a 1.38 Impact Value (vs. 1.32 for P's) which indicates a Best or Most Effective runstyle for today's RaceType.:faint:

So after further deliberation, if I am intpretting this correctly, I believe that I would agree that E's are the best RunStyle for this RaceType (despite Bris's definitions..:lol: ). I believe the only reason that P's have won a higher % than E's is because more P's have been entered in the races contained in the sample. If someone has a better grasp on this than I do, please straighten me out!

For example, there is some ambiguity in Bris's definition of impact value. Bris states that a run-style which wins its "rightful share" of this RaceType would receive a Impact Value of 1.00. How do they define "rightful share". I am guessing it is just a simple ratio of run-style win % vs. run-style entry %, but is it possible that odds are somehow factored into this equation?:confused:

As for the question of how can an E style be the best and P style be almost as good and yet EP, which is in the middle, be not nearly as good as either E or P? Got me! Don't know...sample size error? Or is there a better reason? I am guessing that you would expect more of a linear progression or regression as you moved from one end of the run-style spectrum to the other?

If the answer is something more complicated than sample size error or possibly variations in the way the track has played during the sample period , I am going to have to delegate this question to Hajck or Sally for explanation!:D

At any rate...

Thanks for The Observation RyeSteve and Best Of Luck Today!

MakinItHappen

[ryesteve]

As for the question of how can an E style be the best and P style be almost as good and yet EP, which is in the middle, be not nearly as good as either E or P? Got me! Don't know...sample size error?
That's exactly what I would say... but I have a suspicion that there are some Sartin types out there who will try to say that this is a perfectly explainable pattern, and cite some energy distribution analysis that will fly over my head :D

And yes, your interpretation of the IVs is correct... if odds were being factored into the calculation, those would be PIVs

[parshooter]

i agree - that seems a good logical question. a bit perplexing
:bang:

[judd]

$10 win & place no 2 goodgollymissholly

[sufan]

10$ ex whl
10 ov 3, 12,

[gambler147]

1-23-08 MAKE UP TP) 1.00 pic 3 6) 8 2.00 DD 7) 1-4
YESTERDAY 7) 1-4 8) 2-9-11
8) 7-9-11

TODAY TP) 1.00 PIC 3 7) 1-4 2.00 DD 8)11
8) 7-9-11 9) 2
9) 4-5-11

[MakinItHappen]

After much deliberation, I have settled on the following:

$10 Ex 2 / 3,5

Best of Luck Today Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...and with my remaining 40cents, I will play this dime superfecta.

2 - 4 - 5,9 - 5,9,12

[gambler147]

I PUT MY PICS IN ORDER BUT WHEN I SUBMITTED REPLY IT SCRAMBLED MY PIC AROUND FOR CLARIFICATION THEY ARE :

MAKE UP TP Race 6) 1.00 P3 8/1-4/7-9-11 =6.00
YESTERDAY 7) 2.00 DD 1-4/7-9-11=12.00

TODAYS PICS RACE 7) 1.00 P3 1-4/7-9-11/4-5-11 =18.00
RACE 8) 2.00 DD 11/2 = 2.00

[canleakid]

LAST DAY!!!!!!! GOT TO SCORE LOL
$1.00 EX.BX 2-9-12
$1.00 TRI. BX 2-9-12
$1.00 SUPER 2-9-12/2-9-12/7-9-12/7-9-12

[onefast99]

No one had the 4, interesting I figured some one would play a bomb in this one to get the top spot.

[MakinItHappen]

FINAL Contest Standings:

HugginTheRail..$278.00
Rknhrse.............$188.10
Shots................$179.80
098Poi...............$168.50
Omalley.............$156.20
MakinItHappen....$131.00
Judd..................$115.50
Gambler147.........$111.80
RyeSteve...........$105.90
Sally...................$88.60
ParShooter...........$82.90
FlyinInLate...........$68.60
JakeW.................$66.80
PorkChop.............$64.80
OneFast99...........$50.00
Rookie.................$25.20
Dylbert................$18.30
Canleakid..............$0.00
SmokinJoe.............$0.00
Sufan...................$0.00
Hajck Hillstrom.......$0.00
Sal......................$0.00
Burls....................$0.00

MakinItHappen

Well, that was a bit anti-climatic! The 29-1 shot skunked us all! :ThmbDown:

I believe Rookie will be back in the next day or so and hopefully he will start up another little contest! Thanks to all who participated!

Best of Luck To Everyone In The Next Contest!

MakinItHappen

[rcknhrse]

This type of horse happens in AUSTRALIA All the time .The lowest speed figure horse with 3 or less Lifetime starts.I have been wary of 3 or less LTS horses for sometime and this adds to that.There were 5 horses with 3 or less LTS and #4 had the lowest speed fig.Any body else want to chime in ,that any horse with 3 or less races is still a mystery.Plus any horse who won its last start has to be considered.

[098poi]

This type of horse happens in AUSTRALIA All the time .The lowest speed figure horse with 3 or less Lifetime starts.I have been wary of 3 or less LTS horses for sometime and this adds to that.There were 5 horses with 3 or less LTS and #4 had the lowest speed fig.Any body else want to chime in ,that any horse with 3 or less races is still a mystery.Plus any horse who won its last start has to be considered.

Remember these are three year olds, and they just turned three. Lightly raced horses shouldn't be overlooked at this age because they are eligible to improve. This whole field seems lightly raced really and we'll have to see if the first and second place winners continue to improve or if today was their day to shine.


Mr. Rook and Mr. Maken a salute to a job well done. :ThmbUp: And congratulations to Mr. Hugg!!!! :jump:

[ryesteve]

Remember a weekly called the Racing Star? Every issue they'd give you an obviously backfit system that performed spectacularly well the prior week. If they were still around, I'm sure next week's system would've started out with "Horse must have won it's last race and be 20-1 or higher today". Voila... a $570 exacta!

[shots]

congrats to hug, nice cappin