Derby System: Another Dose

[karlskorner]

From the NY Post

Quote:
There is a rule in horseracing that any successful handicapping system STOPS working when too many people START using it.

http://www.NYPost.com/sports/29252.htm

From DRF

Drug uniformity hampered

http://www.drf.com/news/article/43823.html

[ranchwest]

Are we to believe that horses suddenly fell apart four years ago? I don't think so.

While I do believe that horses are not being handled as well for stamina, to think that the line of demarcation would be this pronounced seems ludicrous to me.

If seems more a case of regressing to the mean. To think that the Experimental Free Weight would never regress was probably an invalid presumption.

The emphasis on Triple Crown achievement is likely at play here, too. Waiting for top achievement until spring of the 3 yo year has proven effective for the TC, so there is less emphasis on success as a 2 yo. Thus, less status in the EFW.

It will be interesting to see whether the next few Derby winners have post-Derby success.

[Bruddah]

You have hit the nail on the head Ranchwest. At least IMHO!

[rrbauer]

Re: Dosage

I think that it's a case of "back fitting" that's gone sour.

When the Dosage system was first dreamed up it was developed using data going back many years but using limited observations from each year. From that data, Roman developed an algorithm that worked against the historical data base. Then he published it and said "lookee here....the secret of the derby-picking universe". Now that it's required to work against fresh data it's fallacies are being exposed.