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City Zip
01-21-2008, 06:48 PM
I'm strictly a longshot player, and I don't play exactas and trifectas at all, but now I find myself in a position that I have to start playing trifectas. Let me ask all the exotic players out there, what is the best way to eliminate horses from the trifecta? Also, what is the best way to play the trifecta? Key, Box, etc........? I know very little about playing trifectas which puts me behind the eight ball some, but any advice or suggestions that you can send my way would be appreciated.

asH
01-21-2008, 07:13 PM
No offense but how does one find himself forced to play trifectas…from a long shot bettor to forced to play trifectas? ? For me, a strict long shot bettor is just the reverse of a strict favorite bettor. If you’re asking for opinions, I think first starting over finding value from any winning horse would be where I would start. This may not be what you are looking for, but I have found that there are no quick fixes in this game; racing is non-forgiving. The sooner one learns the value of finding a winner (regardless of price), the sooner one finds winning.
asH

City Zip
01-21-2008, 08:28 PM
Lets just say I got myself into a jam and now have to alter the way I play for awhile. I had a feeling I wasn't going to get too much feedback before I wrote this thread. Also, I wasn't thinking clearly either before I wrote this thread. I had an anxiety attack. Now that I'm thinking clearly again after taking my medication, I'll just roll the dice and see where they land. I know what to do now as far as eliminating horses from the trifecta.

rokitman
01-21-2008, 08:49 PM
I'm sure you'll get some useful responses. Hold your horses. :cool:

Robert Fischer
01-21-2008, 09:15 PM
handicap what the most likely outcomes are
make a conservative estimate of the payout
calculate the costs


ticket structure is liquid. Some people have great success with a certain ticket structure and they wait for races that fit that structure well.

Structure
Say someone wants the affordable AB/ABC. - a $4 wager. Then naturally you are going to want to find a race with 2 strong win candidates and 3 consistent horses.... The more experienced player can create a ticket structure to fit a race. It is a value judgement.

Elimination
Who would you bet to win? Honestly I am not really good enough in most races to have a separate selection process for Place (2nd). I use my winners most of the time twice. In the win slot I maybe have a couple less horses by eliminating the fringe. Show (3rd) is a whole new ballgame for me! A lot of horses can get 3rd in a race, and my selection tends to include more.
You must balance coverage with cost to get a good value.

asH
01-21-2008, 10:02 PM
Zip

How much time do you have?

City Zip
01-21-2008, 10:29 PM
3 weeks

asH
01-21-2008, 10:53 PM
not a long time...if things have been going bad its not like this game will make it any easier...most here have been where you are its all part of growth... the nature of the beast.

how u doin, hows your head

City Zip
01-21-2008, 11:21 PM
I'm feeling better now.


No, playing trifectas isn't going to be easy, but I have to give it a shot. It's either going to work or it isn't. I'll know more tomorrow. I think I'll eventually figure it out and make some money.

asH
01-21-2008, 11:44 PM
what kind of information do you use. ...I use a spreadsheet and a database that I put together myself, took me a long while before I understood enough about this game to program it into a computer and I'm still learning... its not easy, especially when the pressure is on.

fromtheroof
01-21-2008, 11:51 PM
If you are gambling to try to get out of a jam, you are only going to make things worse. I am sure gambling is the reason your in this mess and it wont help you get out.

john messina
01-22-2008, 12:05 AM
Never bet a lot to make a little!

City Zip
01-22-2008, 12:22 AM
from


If I was negative like you I'd never get anywhere. You always have to be in a positive state of mind no matter what the circumstance. You have to always keep trying and never give up. I may be down now, but I'm certainly not out of it. With my positive attitude I will succeed.

asH
01-22-2008, 12:30 AM
A Positive mind is good, what information do you use?

City Zip
01-22-2008, 12:47 AM
TSN PP

asH
01-22-2008, 01:13 AM
are you handicapping now...

fromtheroof
01-22-2008, 01:16 AM
talk to me in 3 weeks when you are in a even deeper bind, quit betting the horses now before you blow whatever cash you got. I am not being negative, but you seem like you are in a bad place and gambling is only gonna make it worse

asH
01-22-2008, 01:35 AM
Hey Roof,

when I was much younger than I am now (I'm always gona be young), whenever someone told me I couldnt do something, the more I wanted to prove them wrong. I had a hard head.. after getting my a-- kicked a few times I started listening ...It was hard, but I knew they cared, that was when I began to learn, then things got better. How bout you

fromtheroof
01-22-2008, 02:42 AM
Your right Ash, the more you say not to do something, the more you want to do it. I work at a racetrack and I see this thing all the time, guys bringing in their wives or gfs, trying to make the rent $$ only to leave pennyless.

Pell Mell
01-22-2008, 06:11 AM
Scared money never wins!

DanG
01-22-2008, 07:54 AM
Pressure…

We all feel it whether we gamble or punch a clock with the overhead of a family to support.

I feel for ya brother CZ and if your lucky enough to have people who honestly support you now is the time to lean on their friendship.

All the best and while it’s dark at the moment, these can be the most valuable lessons you will ever learn going forward. (I know…easy for someone to say who’s not living it, but it is true.)

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

City Zip
01-22-2008, 08:01 AM
DanG


Thanks. I appreciate it.

bigchump
01-22-2008, 10:34 AM
Hi Zip

Last June I lost 27 consecutive races, won one, then lost another 16 before it was over.

I was tempted - REALLY TEMPTED - to get it all back in one shot.
"Just a $200 cold exacta to get even...." the Devil of Wagering whispered in my ear.

I didn't take the Devil's advice and that's what saved me.
By late July or early August I was back on my feet again.

And you'll be back on your feet again, provided you don't take the Devil's advice.

good luck
bigchump

Bruddah
01-22-2008, 12:03 PM
I have read your thread with great interest. I hate to say it, but your initial posts make you sound desperate and panicked, with a short time line for recovery. Which begs my question and, I am not being condescending. Have you dipped into the til and can't replace the funds? Therefore, making you "swing for the fences".

I have a "shotgun" tri system. It has worked for me for 17 years. It does make extraordinary hits and profits. However, you must know your track, its' trainers, the jockeys they use and their stock. Otherwise, you are like everyone else, Shooting with a BB gun instead of a high powered shotgun.

Answer my first question privately, if your answer is embarassing. I have written about the shotgun tri system a couple of times here on PA. I am sure you can research those back posts. Use it, if you will. Email me privately, if you have questions. In the future, I would further advise you to forget gambling, especially on horses. It seems you may be an individual with a problem, which gambling will only make worse.

I apologize if my post seems condescending. We all wish you the Best in solving your current crisis. :ThmbUp:

JustMissed
01-22-2008, 01:26 PM
City, if you are already a longshot player-here's your ticket.

Go to the All-Ways site at frandsen.com.

Go to Newsletter and start with April 1997 #5.

They will teach you two methods to structure your trifecta tickets:exacta plus and key horse.

If you can already pick the longshots-then key horse should be your ticket.

Also since you use TSN, read the newsletter on gapping at All-Ways as well as the other newsletters related. This should help you eliminate the off the board horses.

Jerry"Little Joe" Stokes has some cheap combos shown at his site($36&$42) that work very well with key horses.

Good luck, you may have your own personal ATM machine real soon.

JM :)

1st time lasix
01-22-2008, 01:50 PM
Don't play trifectas with high takeout percentages. Don't put two "odds-on" chaulk types first and second on your tri tickets. Try to only play when you recognize vulnerability for sound handicapping reasons in one of the top two choices....thus allowing you to eliminate one of them. Strive to find closers that will get up for second and third beating early types that are well bet. If you normally play to win on longshots why are you not playing pick threes instead?

Tom Barrister
01-22-2008, 03:19 PM
Pardon me for pontificating for a while and if I sound cruel or uncaring:

It sounds like you got yourself into a tight spot and have to make a fast big score to make up some money you probably shouldn't have played with. In other words, it appears that you "have to win" in order to get out of the jam. If this isn't true, then ignore the rest of what I have to say.

The problem with trying to bail out of a tight spot is that the deeper one gets in, the more desperate one becomes to try to get out. The person trapped in this predicament often spirals out of control, grabbing for any money in sight, always tempted by the possibility of making one lucky score and paying everything off. Without going into all of the details, a person who goes through this nasty spiral can ruin his/her life in a very short period of time.

If you "have to win", then it's time to step away from the game and look for alternate ways of getting out of your situation. Trying to get lucky and bail out is just the easiest and/or laziest way to try to escape a bad financial spot. The reasoning is that gambling got you into it, and now you're going to force gambling to get you out of it.

Well, it doesn't work that way, and you look at the many mega-resort casinos here in Las Vegas and elsewhere in the world as a testament to that. They were built partly on people who thought as you are doing so now and ended up getting in deeper because of it. Lives have been destroyed by what you're thinking of doing. It seldom works, and the rare times that it does can foster the misconception that it will always work, which can get the individual into deeper trouble in the future.

You can't depend on blasting your way out with a few lucky trifecta tickets. If this last money is just a shot you're taking with a bankroll that's separate from your living money, and you have a backup plan if you fail, that's one thing, and you might give it a shot. If you're in deep and have to win in order to pay off something, then it's time to put on the brakes and look long and hard for another way out: one which does NOT involve gambling.

Don't fool yourself into thinking that there's no other way out. Stop before it gets worse, 'fess up to what you've done, take your medicine, and work your way out of it. I would also suggest getting out of gambling altogether, since it's not a good idea to be wagering if you can't do so responsibly without succumbing to the temptation of using money you can't afford to lose. Hit the support groups (e.g. GA) if needed.

Good luck.

City Zip
01-22-2008, 05:46 PM
Here's the deal.


I don't have a gambling problem like a couple of you have determined about me. Ususally I'll only play 3 or 4 longshots per day, but sometimes I don't play at all. I've litterally gone days without playing. My track friends think I'm crazy for sitting there for long periods of time, just sitting on my hands watching races and not doing anything else. It can drive me crazy too at times, and I believe all this waiting around for the right horse to play has put some desperation in me. The guys I know at my local track play a lot of races, so they think I'm wasting my time waiting for the right horse to play. Honestly, not doing anything all day but watching races has put eroded my bankroll some. Yes, my bankroll and living expense money are one in the same. I have to shake things up some before I go bust. So for right now I'm going to continue to play trifectas, and hopefully I'll make some money before the week is over.

BIG HIT
01-22-2008, 06:19 PM
Boy you have patience and if your long shot come in say 10% of time you should have know problem makeing money.If you want to make more money on them key exacta front\back cheaper than messing with tri's and can have hugh pay off's as well.With your patiience you will make money hard to say what to do.There is one thing more action more loss.And would suggest play pic three with couple buck's on other race will stop the bored dum.So you don't go crazy

Grits
01-22-2008, 06:19 PM
Your question posed to the site has nothing to do with how much you sit on your hands.

You shouldn't have asked for the opinions of others here, for their help, etc. if your mind was made up before asking, and its pretty obvious that it was.

And not doing anything at all HAS NOT eroded your bankroll. That is not possible. Not in any way.

Chasing losses can.

riskman
01-22-2008, 06:22 PM
Never bet a lot to make a little!

In cityzips case, I beleive he is trying to do the opposite. Bet a little, to win a lot.

City Zip
01-22-2008, 06:54 PM
Grits


You're wrong about me making up my mind before I posted the thread to play trifectas. This is an area that I have little knowledge in, and if I didn't get the help that I needed, then I wouldn't have ventured down this road. I did say that I had an anxiety attack at the time I posted the thread. I wasn't in the right frame of mind when I said I was going to roll the dice anyway.

riskman
01-22-2008, 07:24 PM
Tom Barrister--Excellent advice and well written. Cityzip appears to look at your advice as surrender/ defeat rather than acceptance of reality.

asH
01-22-2008, 07:42 PM
Zip,

if you have any questions just ask...it may not feel like it , but many here will help...good to know you have (excellent )discipline; the first rule.


asH

phatbastard
01-22-2008, 07:47 PM
B.S.

asH
01-22-2008, 08:23 PM
B.S.
....

City Zip
01-22-2008, 08:38 PM
riskman


Acceptance of reality. Hmmm, I don't think so. One always has to think positively no matter what the situation. I refuse to just lay down and die.

Cratos
01-22-2008, 09:12 PM
I'm strictly a longshot player, and I don't play exactas and trifectas at all, but now I find myself in a position that I have to start playing trifectas. Let me ask all the exotic players out there, what is the best way to eliminate horses from the trifecta? Also, what is the best way to play the trifecta? Key, Box, etc........? I know very little about playing trifectas which puts me behind the eight ball some, but any advice or suggestions that you can send my way would be appreciated.


I really don’t understand your following assertions: “,,,,,,,,,,but now I find myself in a position that I have to start playing trifectas” and “Lets just say I got myself into a jam and now have to alter the way I play for awhile”

Both statements are begging for clarification. This is not to say that you should come on an Internet forum and tell your personal business. However I believe that some if not many on the forum would want to understand how you are using the word “jam.” Is it a financial reference or is it a reference to lack of trifecta handicapping skill?

I believe once you resolve the ambiguity in your posts, the answers and suggestions to resolution to your “jam” will be forth coming from the many posters on this forum.

rokitman
01-22-2008, 09:23 PM
He really needs some scratch. That's the jam.

City Zip
01-22-2008, 09:48 PM
Cratos


Something else happened to me outside of playing the horses. It's a non horse racing issue that I have to deal with.

Cratos
01-22-2008, 10:02 PM
Cratos


Something else happened to me outside of playing the horses. It's a non horse racing issue that I have to deal with.

Okay that is personal and need not be explained, but that should have been the lead sentence in your request for help. I hope you have gotten or will get the information that you are seeking. Also I hope your problems are resolved quickly without additional anxiety and discomfort.

City Zip
01-22-2008, 10:17 PM
Cratos


I hope so too. Thanks

Tom Barrister
01-22-2008, 10:23 PM
Okay, then we'll put it a different way.

If your bankroll and living expenses are the same fund, then you're making a mistake. Your bankroll and the money you live on need to be two separate entities. If your living expenses have to be funded by winnings, and you can't easily do this and keep the bankroll intact at the level that it needs to be to operate comfortably and confidently, then you need to supplement your living expenses by such as getting a job. That way there's no pressure on you to win, since your bankroll won't be picked at by the cost of living.

I could probably play the horses for a living if I HAD to. As it is, I prefer to work for a living and play the horses on the side. The work pays the bills. The bankroll is separate, and I can play confidently and as aggressively as I want to, knowing that if I lose, I still have my regular paycheck coming in.

Now for the other point: when you've lost your bearings, venturing into what you KNOW are uncharted waters isn't the way to go. You apparently don't know how to handicap trifectas or bet them correctly, or you wouldn't have asked for advice. This isn't something that somebody can sit down and say "do this" or "do that" and send you on your way to win. Like anything else, you'll need to get experience. That won't happen in a few days. There's no Magic Yum Yum Tree, no Rosetta Stone, no Koran to show you the way. You'll have to work at it. My advice, for what it's worth, is to stick to what you do best, which is pick longshots. You might go over your last few months of bets (you DO keep records, right?), and see if you're doing something wrong or if you're just having bad luck. If it's the former, it's time to step back and correct the mistakes. If it's the latter, and you've been successful in the past, then there's no reason to change the way you approach the game, although you might want to find a way to supplement your income until things right themselves.


Good luck.

City Zip
01-23-2008, 07:49 AM
I can't play longshots anymore. Too much waiting around for the right horse to come along, and for what?, a 15-1 horse that I'd have to bet $50 on to make any money, because the longshots I play are few and far between. I'm not waiting around anymore. My patience has reached its end. Last night I was given some advice on how to play trifectas from a member here at PA. I plan to use these trifecta strategies to make some money with.

DrunkenHorseplayer
01-23-2008, 01:30 PM
1) Don't play tri boxes; this style will eat your money up in the long-term.
2) Never use the "ALL" button in any position.
3) Never use the fave in the top two spots.

You can ignore #3 when handicapping the Triple Crown or Breeders' Cup races.

SRK
01-25-2008, 12:43 AM
I really enjoyed reading this forum and benefited from doing so. It was great to read the (mostly) wonderful advise to City Zip (and at the same time, all of us trifecta players). Allow me to throw in my three cents.



(1) In each race I have to decide, am I going to play the trifecta in this race, or not. I don’t go down the race card asking myself, “ok – what’s my tri bet in the next race?”

(2) Generally speaking, I avoid playing tri’s in races where I think the favorite is an obvious pick to win, and where I think the 3 or 4 or 5 shortest priced horses all figure to hit the board, and small (6-7 horse) fields, and races where I don't have a clue (races where I don't have a strong opinion on at least 2 horses to hit the board).

(3) Therefore, I like to bet trifectas on races where, I feel the favorite is vulnerable (that doesn't necessarily mean I toss him out completely - but if I can, and he does run out - and I get the rest of it right – triple $$$ digits might follow), where there is a medium (min 7 horse) to large field, and where I can play a ticket that allows me to play combinations for more than $1.



(by the way – if I don’t play the tri in a given race – I might play an exacta – less combinations – more $$$ per combo – less stress about who is going to get up or hold on for the show). I also sometimes play exactas and tri’s in the same race.



(4) A trifecta ticket involves several distinct decisions. (I) win candidates, lets call them “a” horses, (II) weaker win candidates, and/or likely in-the- money candidates, which you can call “b” horses, and (III) surprise horses who can suddenly jump up and hit the board, who we can call “c” horses.



What I love about tri’s is trying to express these three decisions on my tickets. Which means I almost always build a second or third ticket that will cover me if I’m close, but not exactly right. Correctly expressing my decisions on these tickets is just as important as picking who are my (a), (b) and/or (c) horses. (PS: I follow a similar thought process in many exacta, pick 3,4, and pick 6 tickets).



Some of the trifecta combos I use the most are: a/bcd/bcd; bcd/a/bcd; bcd/bcd/a; and a/b/cde; a/cde/b; and ab/abcd/abcd along with abcd/ab/abcd; and ab/ab/cde along with ab/cde/ab. Also a/bc/bcd and bc/a/bcd. From there I just spread…adding one or maybe two more horses to each slot. Again – I usually try to hit the tri more than one time, as opposed to spreading and just hitting it once.



Selecting the (a), (b) and/or (c) horses is a topic for another forum. One which has been previously discussed. If anyone wants to reopen that discussion – lets do it !! For the moment, let me say that I treat these as different handicapping puzzles to be solved.



I agree with those who say how you bet is just as important as who you bet…they were certainly thinking about tri’s and other exotic bets when they said that.



Believe me, you can be totally wrong with your “best guess,” but if you can build the right ticket, i.e. mix the aforementioned (a), (b) and (c) horses correctly; you can cash enough tickets, and some really nice ones, to keep you in the game.



To many reading this, if they got this far, there were no revelations or new ideas uncovered here. To others, maybe it helped you with your thought process. To everyone, hopefully it is an opening to further discussion.



To City Zip..I’m even less sure what to say to you…if anything…other than …”most people have very few true friends. If you are lucky enough to have any, know who they are, and love them, and listen when they speak to you. Regarding family, real family, love them even more deeply, and give them your undivided attention, they are singles on your pick 6…everyone else…they’re (c) horses."



So, along with my apologies for the grammar and spelling, and a well meant “good luck” to all of you, especially City Zip – “buenas noches.”

Arlington Rodie
01-25-2008, 01:46 PM
My best way for playin the exotics,

1-take out all of the *off starts (anything thats not fast/firm) unless thats what the current track condition is.

1a- only count the 3 most recent races.

2- If a dirt race, take out all of the turf and all-weather races and vice versa depending on the racing surface.

2a- only count races that distances have been close to the current race distance. (I don't count a past performance if im cap'in a 5f race, and his previous races was 1 1/8)

3- take note if a jockey is off his regular ride to ride for a different horse. Ex....if the same jockey has been on the 3 horse for the last 4 starts, and has done pretty well, now all of a sudden he's on the 6 horse....he might know something.....

4- exclude all horses that have not raced in 6+months. (usually they need a race or two under their belts to really start counting.....

5- take off all of the "eased" "fallen" races.

Now, usually I have a good 3-4 horses left to pick from, and only 2-3 really have a decent shot.....


Thats how i capp, and play...and i have to say, i've done pretty well this year so far. Especially at Aqu, Mntr, CT, DeD, Haw, Phili and GP.

camfella
01-25-2008, 10:58 PM
Trifectas are my specialty,I was not born doing it,it took a long time of trial and error too come up with a plan that worked,at first I became proficient at cashing,but soon found out that value is the key.
1) your ticket needs to be very small at the top, you still must have the winner. The more horses played on top the less that should be played in the under positions. My general rule is no more than 2 horses on top of the ticket,and no more than 4 in the second spot. This affects the number of bottom ticket horses that can be played. Over time ,,I have found that more than 15-18 combos makes the tri less valuable in comaparison to exactas. In otherwords,clean and keyed,such as // a /bcd/ bcdefg- 15 combos ,or ab/abcd/abcde- 18 combos, if you feel more combos are needed invest in the exacta and add in a ticket such as a/bc/bcde-6 combos.
2) write your ticket down,compare to race reality,the most important position on the ticket is 2nd place,short odds second will kill the price,as the general public always structures low to high odds on their tickets,longshot 2nd is a key to a good payoff. The winner is the winner,worry less about the odds of this horse. 5th,6th 7th 8th choices will make the ticket pay well,most people play the top 4 choices in the 2nd spot on the ticket. For third play the ones you "have"to plus good possibles.
3) dont be afraid to "crush" a ticket, $40 a/bc/bcde if it makes sense by the race shapes up, a cant lose b or c has to be second, d and e or c being longshots makes it worth the risk. I have hit $80 payoffs this way x40,makes for a nice night. I only use the "crush" on a prime favorite 1st.
4) If you narrow a race where you can project no more than 4 or 5 ,it is a good idea to throw a few reach horse into the ticket.
50 avoid races with less than 8 horses 10-12 are the best races,more overlooked contenders,and fewer players who can afford to cover them all.
Camfella

Pace Cap'n
01-25-2008, 11:48 PM
Great posts!!

City Zip
01-26-2008, 11:07 AM
My thanks to all of you who contributed. I appreciate it.