Recession? Where?

[PaceAdvantage]

Have they changed the definition of recession? The traditional definition includes the following:

TWO consecutive quarters of NEGATIVE real GDP growth...we haven't even come remotely close to this lately.....
HIGH rates of unemployment.....NOPE....not even CLOSE....
HIGH rates of interest.....NOPE....again....interest rates are quite low
HIGH inflation.....we're starting to creep up a tiny bit, but again, nothing anywhere near worrying about yet.....
So, I ask....where is this supposed recession that the US economy is falling into (hell, some are already using the big D word...forget recession, they've got us into a depression already....I guess they have to hurry up if they want to push the DEPRESSION thing on Bush before he's out the door).

OK, all you big bad armchair economists out there...let me have it....come at me with the "new recession paradigm" or the "US Gov't lies about the economic stats coming out of Washington" or any other BS you care to hurl for a while....

[bigmack]

As much as I'd like to believe otherwise, it's not good at all.

We’re over leveraged, both personally and institutionally. Credit card/mortgage debt is rotten. Really rotten.

Banks has little interest in lending as they’re fighting crunches of their own.

Foreign bailouts abound. Citigroup:20Bil - Merrill Lynch:15Bil - Morgan Stanley:5Bil....And that's just a start of their problems.

Subprime mortgage losses will now brace for the next wave from Credit Default Swaps, which will bring another 300Bil in losses. We’ll soon hear from the banking industry of HUGE losses throughout.

Housing values have declined steadily over the last year. Overall, there is little money for lending and the effect will be felt throughout the country. Not to mention, almost a trillion borrowed for consumer goods coming in from abroad.

Hold onto your lugnuts. It might be a bumpy ride for a spell.

[rrpic6]

Without going too deep in each instance:

Mortgage Defaults and Delinquincies.
House values plummeting. Example: Cleveland's value is 30% of what is was in 2000.
Trade deficit soaring with China.
Outsourcing of jobs to China. China's economy booming, therefore competing with USA for foreign oil, driving prices higher.
Value of the dollar steadily decreasing. In 2004: American $1.00 = Canadian $1.35. 2008: Both are of equal value.
Value of Gold quadruples in 6 years.
Citigroup, Chase, Morgan Stanley have losses close to 30 billion.
Bush goes to Saudi Arabia to beg for lower oil prices.
Bush plans to give American tax payers $800 apiece.

RR

P.S. My stock tip...invest in canvass, tent cities making a revival, and not just for revivals.

[Marshall Bennett]

Bad Credit , Poor Credit , Bad Loans , More Bad Loans ..... Oh well , Blame it on Bush !! Blame it on Bush !!

[robert99]

This is a inevitable recession with a cause unlike anything since 1929 - never in recent times have banks been so totally reckless with other people's funds. A huge amount of supposed GDP is just worthless churning of debt, not product. The normal stats inevitably lag in these situations - it's more like an automobile that is going along just fine until the sump hits a boulder and all the oil drains out and wrecks the engine.
Finance pays for future investments and payroll until bills are paid, even in the best run companies. Banks are calling in any loans they can to get cash to survive. Just one UK bank is requiring $56,000,000,000 loan from Government just to keep going.
Every $1 a bank loses means $10 cannot be churned in loans.
With the oil of finance draining to a trickle, the good are sadly going down with the bad.

[sammy the sage]

"HIGH inflation.....we're starting to creep up a tiny bit, but again, nothing anywhere near worrying about yet."

Hate to call you out here P.A...but do you or your wife shop for food? :confused:

If she does...ask how much milk & bread have gone up in the last year....MORE THAN A TINY BIT!

[Lefty]

sammy, it's been reported that milk and bread prices have gone up as a DIRECT result of grain being used to produce Ethanol. So be careful what you wish for concerning alternative energies because theres always a price to pay elsewhere.

[sammy the sage]

By the way P.A....since you're after HISTORICAL proof....Most if not all recessions are documented...6 month's to a year AFTER THE FACT...that INDEED a recession is going on!

LEFTY...the fact of the matter...IT DOESN'T MATTER WHY the price of those items went up...they've gone up MORE THAN A LITTLE BIT is the point.

Could go w/just about anything else for that matter...from home-owner's or health insurance to fertilizer...Car's will be going down of course...lol's! :D

[Lefty]

sammy, it does matter why? With everyone going around trying to blame Bush for any economic downturn without giving him credit in the first place it does matter.

[rrpic6]

Check out todays' Europe and Asia Stock Markets. Losses averaging 5% in response to America's economic woes.

RR

[sammy the sage]

WTF...I NEVER mentioned BUSH....

P.A. says there is no recession...nor one coming...I say that we are already at the beggining of one.

THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL DISCUSSION!

It's a financial one...HELLO :bang:

[46zilzal]

Many things happen that happen at the same time don't necessarily mean cause and effect. COINCIDENTAL more likely.

I feel sorry for all those people duped into debt.

[lamboguy]

if you had only 2 bad quarters, i would be the happiest guy in the world. ithink you will see 20 bad qurters if not alot more in this one.

as far as the president and congress, democrat or republican or whatever, these are the guys that got us into this problem, they will never be the solution to it!

[Marshall Bennett]

If we happened to get blindsided by an asteroid Bush would get blamed for it . Not a lot different than the wild fires or Katrina . Its like ... " Hey man , you knew there was always a chance of an asteroid hitting us and you did nothing ".

[lamboguy]

isn't it time we stop blaming bush for everything. even if he is the likely culprit, along with his cohorts in congress. why not try to work together and get out of this mess instead of calling each other names and spiting each other.

[chickenhead]

what's going on now is mostly healthy. I certainly hope housing prices continue to fall, because they need to fall. I hope imports slow, because they need to slow. I hope the consumer spends less, because they need to spend less.

I hope everyone takes their tax credit and either pays of CC debt, puts it toward their mortgage or car payment, or, if they are debt free, into savings.

[Tom]

Falling housing prices = more opportunities for people to buy houses responsibly. Is this not good?

But I'm blowing my $800! :eek::lol:

[46zilzal]

Falling housing prices = more opportunities for people to buy houses responsibly. Is this not good?

But I'm blowing my $800!
No it means the people who invested are losing a great deal of money.

[riskman]

what's going on now is mostly healthy. I certainly hope housing prices continue to fall, because they need to fall. I hope imports slow, because they need to slow. I hope the consumer spends less, because they need to spend less.

I hope everyone takes their tax credit and either pays of CC debt, puts it toward their mortgage or car payment, or, if they are debt free, into savings.

Chickenhead has given us sound advice.The pullback on spending is not going to cause a recession. If we think about the long term, this is not a dangerous trend but a hopeful one. The more people pull back and save, the more the foundation is laid for a recovery after the current correction takes its course. We can fully expect that the Bush administration could resort to its old program of sending checks out to every American family with the proviso that the money has to be spent, not saved.
No doubt that many people would be thrilled by this. But look beneath the surface. Government has no money to spend on anything that it doesn't extract from the pockets of you and me and the whole American public. This is easy enough to see concerning taxes. It is not so easy to see when the government runs up debt that is guaranteed by the printing presses.

[DJofSD]

The pullback on spending is not going to cause a recession.

How can you say that when fully 2/3's of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending? Slow or stop the growth of the spending by the consumer and it will be reflected everywhere else.

BTW, I believe that equity markets are consider lagging indicators when it comes to recession. If the recent corrections/adjustments reflected in the averages are considered lagging indicators, we already are in a recession.

[Gittup]

Chickenhead has given us sound advice.The pullback on spending is not going to cause a recession. If we think about the long term, this is not a dangerous trend but a hopeful one. The more people pull back and save, the more the foundation is laid for a recovery after the current correction takes its course. We can fully expect that the Bush administration could resort to its old program of sending checks out to every American family with the proviso that the money has to be spent, not saved.
No doubt that many people would be thrilled by this. But look beneath the surface. Government has no money to spend on anything that it doesn't extract from the pockets of you and me and the whole American public. This is easy enough to see concerning taxes. It is not so easy to see when the government runs up debt that is guaranteed by the printing presses.
Riskman,
Your bolded is "right on the money". The claim that we will be "given" money is a fallacy. That money comes from taxpayers ( either present or future).
Grandpappy Clem used to say, "There ain't no free lunch."
We'll all pay it back, and then some.

[PaceAdvantage]

"HIGH inflation.....we're starting to creep up a tiny bit, but again, nothing anywhere near worrying about yet."

Hate to call you out here P.A...but do you or your wife shop for food? :confused:

If she does...ask how much milk & bread have gone up in the last year....MORE THAN A TINY BIT!I'm looking at all-encompassing stats....inflation has been creeping up lately to about the 4%+ mark....

[PaceAdvantage]

P.A. says there is no recession...nor one coming...I say that we are already at the beggining of one.Actually, I didn't say anything of the sort. What I did was list the conventional indicators of recessions, and pointed out that we aren't anywhere near any of them at the present time. And then I asked for comments....

I also did not say that there wasn't a recession coming....I was asking where it was from those that say it's here, as I can't find one (or any indication of one) among the stats I cited.

[PaceAdvantage]

if you had only 2 bad quarters, i would be the happiest guy in the world. ithink you will see 20 bad qurters if not alot more in this one.Surely you jest.

[Buckeye]

the easy credit party is over. That's what the Markets are saying. There have been and will be casualties but the real question is not about what's happened already or is happening now. (Econ degree University of Pennsylvania) The real questions are did the Japanese build the Cadillac CTS or Chevy Malibu or not? and are the Chinese going to Mars anytime soon? I'm NOT convinced anyone is ready to lead (Dominate) the World other than us until they at least START to do that. Lenin was correct, the only way we can be destroyed is from within so take a hard look at yourself and forget about Mexico. :)
We hold the key to our future.

[Gittup]

Actually, I didn't say anything of the sort. What I did was list the conventional indicators of recessions, and pointed out that we aren't anywhere near any of them at the present time. And then I asked for comments....

I also did not say that there wasn't a recession coming....I was asking where it was from those that say it's here, as I can't find one (or any indication of one) among the stats I cited.
PA,
I'm not an economist. That said, do you consider the following sectors as indicators?
Construction, housing starts, financials, retail, domestic auto, and US exports?

[Buckeye]

yeah, they're all bad Gittup, especially bad are dept ratios to productivity. That's what the Markets are saying. They are NOT saying it's over only that easy credit above what is reasonable is.

[riskman]

How can you say that when fully 2/3's of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending? Slow or stop the growth of the spending by the consumer and it will be reflected everywhere else.

BTW, I believe that equity markets are consider lagging indicators when it comes to recession. If the recent corrections/adjustments reflected in the averages are considered lagging indicators, we already are in a recession.


One only needs to think of the household budget here to see the point. If you are planning for the future for your family, what is the wisest course? Does one go into debt as much as possible, buy the largest house and the biggest car, throw lavish parties, hand out all existing liquid funds to friends and strangers? Based on the view that consumption is the way to avoid economic problems, this would indeed be the right course.

But this also defies everything we know about family finance. The path to a secure prosperity is delaying consumption. One should spend as little as possible and save as much as possible for the future, and let that money be used in the service of investments that yield a solid rate of return. Those who have chosen a different path now see the folly: they are being burned in the soft housing market, for example.

The lesson is also true for the nation at large, because the logic doesn't magically change when moving from the family budget to the national stage. Just because something involves "macroeconomics" doesn't mean that we should throw out all good sense. But that is precisely what people have done with regard to the economy, since J.M. Keynes somehow convinced the world that up is down
and left is right. Us simple people just don't get it, according to the key board economists.

[Tom]

This was one of the reason we elected Bush - fiscal conservatism.
He must have skiiped that class at Converative U.:rolleyes:

The war. 9-11, all that only goes so far. He has still failed at every turn to curb spending and stop pork.

His report card gets an F-- in this area.

The dems are just as guilty - with all that pork they have generated.
Our entire government gets failing grades. Yet they always get thier piece of the pie, the big salaries,the raises, the perks, the graft, the pork, the miserable thieves. We should hang them all from tree branches.:mad:

[Gittup]

Now Tommy, calm down.

None of this KKK talk:

"We should hang them all from tree branches.:mad:"

If you do that, shucks, you just might get yourself banned from the "Golf Channel".

[Tom]

If you are going to infect threads, at least stay on topic.

[Gittup]

If you are going to infect threads, at least stay on topic.
Tommy, meet mirror.

[PaceAdvantage]

Tommy, meet mirror.I tell you, the level of discourse around here gets higher and higher with each passing moment.

[Gittup]

I tell you, the level of discourse around here gets higher and higher with each passing moment.
See post #29. On topic regarding recession/stockmarket?
A) yes
B) no

[PaceAdvantage]

See post #29. On topic regarding recession/stockmarket?
A) yes
B) noAt least his posts contained SOME substance that could be related to economics or why we are where we are or why we're heading to where we are going.

Yours contained nada....zippo....nunca....you talked about KKK and the Golf Channel, and looking in the mirror.

[Gittup]

At least his posts contained SOME substance that could be related to economics or why we are where we are or why we're heading to where we are going.

Yours contained nada....zippo....nunca....you talked about KKK and the Golf Channel, and looking in the mirror.
PA,
Back up to #26.
Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,
I'm not an economist. That said, do you consider the following sectors as indicators?
Construction, housing starts, financials, retail, domestic auto, and US exports?I consider what I considered in my initial post, which is the gold standard as far as defining a recession.

Let me know when that first quarter of negative real GDP growth comes through, then we can start to talk....

[Gittup]

I consider what I considered in my initial post, which is the gold standard as far as defining a recession.

Let me know when that first quarter of negative real GDP growth comes through, then we can start to talk....
OK.

[robert99]

I consider what I considered in my initial post, which is the gold standard as far as defining a recession.

Let me know when that first quarter of negative real GDP growth comes through, then we can start to talk....

PA,

If the recession comes slowly over time - the natural ebb and flow of economies, then that artificial definition might apply. The causation there is not always obvious but is little to do with clueless politicians or economists.

The current circumstances are completely different.
A huge black hole has opened up that few were aware of in September and which will effect future earnings, not so much current ones.
So you need to consider what that effect might be due to that specific cause not get hung up on definitions which have no relevance to the situation.

As explained earlier, the actual GDP growth is already negative as the reported growth is not real growth but just churn of bad debt.

[Gibbon]

Check out todays' Europe and Asia Stock Markets. Losses averaging 5% in response to America's economic woes. Splendid observation.

FTSE 100 down 5.48% <London stock market>
DAX down 7.16% <German stock market>
CAC 40 down 6.83% <French stock market>

Hang Seng Index down 5.49% <Hong Kong>

IN ONE DAY! The progressive socialist nations of Europe live off the crumbs capitalist America drops. EVERYONE has a real stake in America’s prosperity.

Talk of recession, global warming, SARS and Avian flu, global conflict…
It must mean the end of human existence approaches. :bang:

[Lefty]

absolutely. He should have pd att to all the disaster movies depicting astroids hitting Earth. They make as much sense as ALGORE'S movie.

lambo, Bush tried his best to work with Dems and everytime he got his head handed to him. How do you work withj a group that want us to change to socialism? That's the change the dems are talkin about.

[ddog]

Ludwig von Mises describes the endgame brought on by reckless expansion of credit:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion.
The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

SEE bottom of post for question of use!!


The above is what I think is at the root of this whole deal.
I am afraid what we are going to see is a little more towards the latter of the two options above , a forced unwind of tons of markets.
We here were unwilling to pay for what we wanted as we went along.

A few of the things I see that have put us here now are :

More than 200 governmental bills designed to make housing affordable.
The worst were bills authorizing creation of the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Lenders saw how easy it is to dump the riskiest loans onto those quasi government agencies and along with the Countrywides of the world the CREDIT STANDARDS then went downhill and home prices sky rocketed.

The Fed in keeping interest so low to "juice" the markets because they did not understand that productivity improvments led by an internet revolution, along with global wage arbitrage and outsourcing to China and India, lowered costs on manufactured goods and kept down wage increases in manufacturing.
This all helped mask wild inflation in money supply.
Greenspan compounded the problem by injecting massive amounts of money to fight a mythical Y2K dragon.
That policy of monetary injections helped drive a massive bubble in the stock market in 2000

A Congress of both parties that impose tariffs on crops and lumber, builds bridges to nowhere in Alaska and the like and PASSED A Bush Medicaid Bill that prohibit negotiation of bulk discounts, prohibit imports from Canada and other nations willing to provide drugs at a cheaper cost and on top of that was KNOWN at the time to cost at least twice as much as it was said it would and not provide the funding for it.

That on top of all this and much more b.s. spending without paying for it along with the "you can have unlimited guns" and most all the butter without paying the piper.
Never has and never will happen.

For those of you fixated on Bush as the be all end all, he could have garnered some respect had he asked Congress to pay for the war as went along and vetoed anything else in other bills or supps that were flat out wastefull.
He never lifted a pen until this last session.



In short, all your stats,charts were based on something that was all fiat junk and "juiced" b.s. passing as a "new" (ha-ha) economy.

This was Kudlow's goldilocks economy and why I said in another post a year ago that he was not in touch and a credit pusher to junkies.

On the other hand, maybe you can borrow and spend forever and never face the piper.
We shall see.

By the way, do you think the US market hits the DOWN stop limit lock Tuesday?
I say 70-30 YES.

What does the FED do on rates?
I say 75 basis pts.

If so, other than a little uptick to stocks will that do anything else or have the markets priced in a 75pt cut already?

[sammy the sage]

"Actually, I didn't say anything of the sort. What I did was list the conventional indicators of recessions, and pointed out that we aren't anywhere near any of them at the present time. And then I asked for comments....

I also did not say that there wasn't a recession coming....I was asking where it was from those that say it's here, as I can't find one (or any indication of one) among the stats I cited."

Gobbledegook...AWESOME...do you hold public office yourself...actually you're probably a lawyer...

You SHOULD PLAY TEXAS HOLD'EM...think that you would be VERY GOOD.

Mean that sincerely by the way... :cool:

I guess the best analogy I can use is:...there's a hell' of a lotta smoke...pretty sure there's a fire...and we need the fire department...You're basically saying...nah..gotta see the flame's 1st before we call 911.

that's all

[Valuist]

I tell you, the level of discourse around here gets higher and higher with each passing moment.

Now THERE'S an indicator of depressed times.

[Tom]

See post #29. On topic regarding recession/stockmarket?
A) yes
B) no

See post # 28 - I was commenting on that idea. You relaly need to pay attention. Focus.

[Gibbon]

governmental bills... Yep, that’s right Delaware dog. Govt. creates the condition for problems to fester then heroically scrambles for solutions. More govt. influence in our lives as a consequence less individual freedoms. Works well in Cuba with their perpetual 25% unemployment rate over 30+ years.

Jefferson was dead on. We NEED a revolution every 20 years to keep govt. honest.







_____________________________
A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor and bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government. ~ Thomas Jefferson

[bigmack]

Works well in Cuba with their perpetual 25% unemployment rate over 30+ years.
Looks like the CIA has a different take:

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/1_21_08_21_07_35.png

After contacting them of their gaffe get ahold of all the Micro$haft users and scold them for their ways.

[Gibbon]

Anyone with the power of google can become and instant {moron} expert. For a somewhat more than rudimentary study: http://cubantriangle.blogspot.com/2007/11/unemployment-problem.html

Micro$haft users and scold them for their ways. I do try my best to expose weakness in MS and virtue of MAC. Four teenage evolving gibbons in my household. Tons of audio and video downloads, bit torrent applications, no antivirus, no anti spyware/malware solutions and NO virus/trojans/worms ever. Computing experience without headaches – O' yes it’s possible.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, I believe the Dow futures are down something like 500 points since Friday's close....S&P is at 1257 and dropping as I type this, down SIXTY FIVE POINTS (WHICH IS FREAKIN HUGE).

It's times like these that I thank the Lord I am currently day trading and not holding any positions overnight.

As far as the market is concerned, it looks the like end is here....this could rival the crash of 1987 later today.....

[bigmack]

Anyone with the power of google can become and instant {moron} expert. For a somewhat more than rudimentary study: http://cubantriangle.blogspot.com/2007/11/unemployment-problem.html

I do try my best to expose weakness in MS and virtue of MAC. Four teenage evolving gibbons in my household. Tons of audio and video downloads, bit torrent applications, no antivirus, no anti spyware/malware solutions and NO virus/trojans/worms ever. Computing experience without headaches – O' yes it’s possible.
Your positions are passé. Last time I checked it's morons who gravitate to blogspots for truths. Then again, who am I to raise suspicions of your disaffected nature?

I can assure you that that there is no shortage of incoming & outgoing up/downloads in this household and they travel with (do I rebelliously spell it correctly?) Micro$haft systems. O' yes it's possible.

Fret not, for the other guy. Many of us can get along fine without your blanket condemnation.

[Gibbon]

As opposed to gravitating toward govt. bureaucracy for quality data?
Exemption: GAO.

Vacationed in Cuba twice. Lovely place, beautiful people, but dreadful living conditions for many. Large numbers of Cubans in Miami challenge the official unemployment #’s. Perhaps their first hand experience is anecdotal or perhaps dissidents have concerns not addressed by official govt. policy.

Or, perhaps your life of material wealth and large amount of free personal leisure time has transformed you into an elitist.







_______________________
When we escaped from Cuba, all we could carry was our education. ~ Alicia Coro

[bigmack]

Large numbers of Cubans in Miami challenge the official unemployment #’s. Perhaps their first hand experience is anecdotal or perhaps dissidents have concerns not addressed by official govt. policy.

Or, perhaps your life of material wealth and large amount of free personal leisure time has transformed you into an elitist.
Your take is 25% and The Feds say 1.9%. That's quite a chasm. And, so I'm clear, your stat is constant for what, 30+ years? :lol: Ok, you're right.

I just got back from Rio, Brazil. I am now an authority on any Brazilian governmental factoid. Just ask me.

An elitist? Nah, that was just for FoulHeaded's benefit. Happy as a clam? Darn tootin'!

[DanG]

Jefferson was dead on. We NEED a revolution every 20 years to keep govt. honest.
Exactly…and it will take nothing short of that to disrupt the two party hammerlock.

[ddog]

Well, I believe the Dow futures are down something like 500 points since Friday's close....S&P is at 1257 and dropping as I type this, down SIXTY FIVE POINTS (WHICH IS FREAKIN HUGE).

It's times like these that I thank the Lord I am currently day trading and not holding any positions overnight.

As far as the market is concerned, it looks the like end is here....this could rival the crash of 1987 later today.....

it's times like these that I am glad they can't hurt me and I am not trading a thing.

this is not the end.
this will be "outside" the market I fear.
there will need to be some structural realigments in the next couple of years.
keep a good thought.

[Marshall Bennett]

Recession is part of the economic cycle . We've had ten recessions since the second world war and survived them all . We're due , the last having occured in 2001 . I beleive one would do best by listeneing to early warning signs and curb their spending and perhaps save more , since recessions rarely last more than a year , its not a life altering ordeal . More often than not , the economy rebounds stronger than before a recession within two years afterwards .
I'm not losing any sleep , and I'm certainly not wealthy !!

[Buckeye]

thats right, it ain't all ups even for Mexico. What?

Back on topic, the R word is applicable here no matter how defined, and is rearing its ugly head again because plenty of Americans are broke who own houses, that's why. Owning a home was "supposed" to be the way to succeed-- but not so fast, maybe that depends on how you "own" it. If you own a loan you can't pay back, then what? Back to the drawing board I always say and good luck.

The banks are really at fault here for lending money to people who couldn't pay them. Now these same people (our beloved homeowners) can't pay back nothin either because the economy is trashed or because there ain't no stupid profits in the stock market either and the big S.U.V. is dead. Told you that awhile ago but some people insisted "we'll do what we want to and buy our Ford Explorers too etc!

Have fun because The Markets will have their say about all of this as they always do. Not me talkin. Who would listen to me but now there won't be any choice but to listen.

Next race? ;)

[Buckeye]

I feel I am the Rodney Dangerfield of this site.

No respect at all.

We love our S.U.V. heavy car. Give me a break.

We hate Mexico because somehow they are destroying us.

Please, if that's the case you are destroyed indeed.

Next race?

I want to say I appreciate all the intelligent posts I've read here be they ARE naturally in the minority at times.

Next race?

But seriously . . .

People are building planes to go into Outerplace for the common people, what do you think about that? It may be better to offer a bit more respect for what I have to offer this site and stop trying to buy so many more Explorers.

What a joke.

I wlll say this much, Pace Advantage himself moderates this site and comes up with intelligent questions about the economy and such. I don't think he can pick races with me but I like him.

[Buckeye]

in other words I have my opinions which I believe I'm entitled to have (correct me anytime) and maybe just maybe they are correct 95% of the freakin time including in regards to Mexico.

Case closed.

There is a recession going on now and Mexico didn't cause it.

Good luck to all and most importantly good thinking and good thoughts.

That's all we need. It all starts there. Think about good things (maybe I shouldn't give that away?). Anyways Politics is only a diversion I hope since we're all horseplayers, right? :)

Most of us are right? And as horseplayers what do we do? We pick horses and win money hopefully. Maybe I'm wrong but i don't think so . . .

[Buckeye]

sure we're in a recession but I'll take E Bradley #4 to show tomorrow in Santa Anita Race 2 as my contest pick since I'm still alive.

[JustRalph]

i just wonder...........do you drink? You are really hard to follow sometimes..........or do you post that way on purpose............??

[Buckeye]

both.

Now follow this . . .

it doesn't help to think about the choices being offered for President.

Pick a race any race anywhere you want, I don't care.

Rockamundo Dare and Go (or unhappily) Go For Wand or RUFFIAN, it's not that tough. You can do it.

Just don't assume I won't call you out if YOU make no sense.

Mexico destroying the USA makes no sense for example . . .

George Bush equals the Devil makes no sense either. And please, if you can, please Re freakin direct ;) me to the Heavyweight currently about to lead this Country? I'm optimistic-- only because I know the history of what we have done as a People if things don't go right.

I believe in me and you and us.

[HUSKER55]

Have any of you ever considered what it is going to take to correct this "recession"? Everything that has been said here is a problem and even the so called answers point to more problems.

Credit cards for typical users run 15% interest and for the young and struggling, with all of the "read between the lines" that interest rate will go up to 30%.

Who is going to pay that? Banks have the problem and they have the solution but who is going to yield. They are finding out 30% of nothing is zero. So who is going to bail them out. Remember the banking scandal after Desert Storm? What do you think?

Throw in the number of people who don't pay taxes and then throw in the fact that we have too many people on the government doll, (and I am not talking about the janitors), and then the Fortune 500 who "out source" jobs to Thailand or India or Mexico and what do you think is left?

(Call AT&T during the night and see who you get). (Call Amazon customer service and see who you get). The list goes on. If good jobs leave the US what do you expect?

Who do you know has a plan? Hillary wants to redo health care. Guess who will pay for that if she gets elected.

Free Trade Zones in the US wouldn't be part of the problem would it? Poor tarriffs or just a plain bad trade policy, anyone of those causing a problem.

Does anybody here really believe anyone of these politicians running right now has a solution that has a chance?

Which one?
Smoke & mirrors people,...smoke & mirrors.

[riskman]

The Democratic candidates are basically socialist thugs who want to tax us to death and spend the money on Cuban-style welfare programs. The Republicans wants to do the same thing, although they want some of the money to go to religious groups. The Democrats are tax and spend, the Republicans are borrow and spend. The Democrats only want to bomb Christian countries on United Nations orders. The Republicans take orders from no one – and they usually prefer to bomb Muslim countries.

They are all liberty-hating thugs, who apparently believe that government should be involved in just about every decision we make. The only questions revolve around how much money to steal from taxpayers, how much to give to which special interests, and which areas of life should be regulated the most by federal bureaucrats.

Oh yeah, and which countries to bomb – and whether to wait for U.N. approval before bombing them. Then there’s that pressing federal question about how to handle steroid use in professional sports. I can barely feign interest in this crap..

We need more people in the media who are not afraid of lampooning the boobs and morons and holding them up to principled standards. We treat every asinine proposal by every candidate as something serious worth discussing. Most members of the media hate liberty as much as the candidates hate it, so no one laughs at the stupid things the candidates say. Everywhere they go, they are met by adoring crowds. In every city, there is a newspaper writer who talks about the candidate’s bold new idea. Sometimes they get criticized, but rarely are they humiliated or lampooned. THEY NEED TO BE HUMILIATED !!!!!

The winner won’t affect your life much at all whether it is the Republican or one of the Democratic challengers.

At least they have never dropped a bomb on a foreighn country--- but give them a chance they will learn quick .

[JustMissed]

[QUOTE=HUSKER55]
Throw in the number of people who don't pay taxes and then throw in the fact that we have too many people on the government doll, [End Quote].

How many people can you get on a "government doll"?

http://www.clothdollsupply.com/patterns/P%20KH%20298_small.jpg


JM :)

[skate]

Have any of you ever considered what it is going to take to correct this "recession"? Everything that has been said here is a problem and even the so called answers point to more problems.



Does anybody here really believe anyone of these politicians running right now has a solution that has a chance?

Which one?
Smoke & mirrors people,...smoke & mirrors.


Now put yourself in the mirror.

Recession from what? please and thank you.

Also, give us your solution that has a chance.

[PaceAdvantage]

Interesting point Skate....for many the past years, we have been told by the left on this board, that the economy SUCKED, even though, by all reasonable and conventional measures (such as those used during the Clinton salad days), the economy was doing very well from 2002 onwards....
But now, these very same demlefties are telling us that we are now MIRED in a recession, bordering on DEPRESSION. Skate asks, RECESSION FROM WHAT?

Is the left now admitting that they were LYING to us when they kept saying the ECONOMY SUCKED from 2002 to late 2007? In order to have a recession, you have to actually go backwards from a lofty height, do you not?

[ddog]

was a recession coming out of the tech bubble(clinton into Bush)?
Seems that was the general impression, at least a big slowdown, right?
That was the reason for the Bush cuts and all that.

(9/11) more donward pressure for a time.

Monster-hyper-leveraged financial-real-estate led growth BUBBLE.

this is what we are unwinding now, it seems.

one , if wise , doesn't seek to "cure" recessions, they are an integral part of capitalism and should be left to work themselves out in the main.
If you try to "help" them along you run the risk of a longer shallow dip and a weak short recovery.

Go back and check the nbr of recessions in the last 60 years.
You will catch on.

My "cure" - Fed should leave rates alone for at least 6 months.
Bush should VETO that STUPID election year deficit funded "money drop" bill.
You do not need to add to the deficit now, it's just more that needs to be carried when we start out of the dip, toward mid-2009, I suspect.

No capex relief either for now.
Don't toss good money after (possibly) bad.
Let the weak die off toward end of year and see what it looks like then.

send all unemployed to Skate as he has a corner on the job market out there.

[Tom]

The dems are all over this economic stimulus package, so in effect, they are saying put more money into our pockets and we will stimulate the economy. Like tax cuts do, yet they continue to whine about tax cuts and talk about tax increases.

Which is it, boys? :lol: