Valuist
01-20-2008, 10:39 PM
Bookmaker has the Patriots -13.
I think the Giants are the play. After starting out 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season, the Patriots are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. And now they face a red hot Giant team that has won 10 road games. This game reminds me of the 2002 Super Bowl (2001 season) in which the Rams were prohibitive 2 TD favorites over the Patriots and everyone assumed the Rams would run roughshod over the Patriots. It didn't happen and I think the Giants will hang within the number.
If you do like the Giants, don't bet now. I expect public money to come in on New England. The downside risk is the line going to 12; no big deal. 12 isnt a frequent occuring differential. But the upside is the line could go to 14. I doubt the number would cross 14 because the books would open themselves up to arbitrage, and with the huge handle on this game, they do not want that to happen. I'll wait and take the 14.
I think the Giants are the play. After starting out 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season, the Patriots are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. And now they face a red hot Giant team that has won 10 road games. This game reminds me of the 2002 Super Bowl (2001 season) in which the Rams were prohibitive 2 TD favorites over the Patriots and everyone assumed the Rams would run roughshod over the Patriots. It didn't happen and I think the Giants will hang within the number.
If you do like the Giants, don't bet now. I expect public money to come in on New England. The downside risk is the line going to 12; no big deal. 12 isnt a frequent occuring differential. But the upside is the line could go to 14. I doubt the number would cross 14 because the books would open themselves up to arbitrage, and with the huge handle on this game, they do not want that to happen. I'll wait and take the 14.