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formula_2002
01-27-2003, 10:45 PM
Quibbling about win percentages

Many books talk about win % as if that is the percentage you make on every dollar wagered.
That’s a neat accounting observation, but to a gambler, a more meaning full perception about risk is warranted.

Every dollar wagered is not a winning wager. Some times you lose the dollar.

There is a big difference between winning 10 cents every time you bet a dollar and losing that dollar 40% of the time, and winning $0.83, 60% of the time.

Or, there is a big difference between winning 50 cents every time you bet a dollar and losing that dollar 60 % of the time, and winning $2.75, 40 % of the time.

Most regulars to the board don’t need the following, but some guess may.

Edge=(win% x odds)-(1-win%)

kenwoodall
01-28-2003, 04:14 AM
I condsider win % based on about the last 150-200 races so it is within about 5% accurate. I am only in racing to win so i have to track % either in my show or win picks. % in show picks is critical. On 1 recent race day i only found 12 bets out of 41 races, hit 75% ITM but 2 more loses would have made a losing day. I am VERY picky in my selections!