I have a question

[KARMA]

does anyone on this forum make a living betting horses? if so, do you use a software program? how long have you been doing it?

i have read these forums for awhile now and if you dont mind i would like to express some of my feelings towards what i have read :

1st - the people who post selections are CLUELESS !! I WOULD BE MORE THAN HAPPY to book all their action for the next MONTH ( only because they would be broke by then)

2nd - i have read many comments about software, have never tried any, but so far i think they are only a supplement to any handicapping one must do. is this correct?
i have read many books on handicapping and on the training of horses and have been handicapping for over 45 years myself and so far i have met 1 individual who makes his living wagering
the reason for his success is simple, he wagers between 3-10 million dollars a year and hopes to break even, thus gaining his 13% rebate as his annual salary
as a matter of fact he told me last year he lost 2% on his wagers(3.7 million) so his net was in excess of 400k

this is the reason for my question...if you ONLY can win by breaking even, and then benefiting from a rebate, how does a software program really benfit you???

hopefully someone will respond.....PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND IF YOU POST SELECTIONS ON THIS FORUM because in reality you have NO OPINION!!!

I would like to hear from the guys who use software and how they use it, which they use, and if after all expenses is it profitible. also can a non computer person such as myself be able to use such software??

thanks in advance

[Hammerhead]

Personally I cannot reply to this post as I would be banned for life from the internet. What drivel! :lol:

[csmith]

...PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND IF YOU POST SELECTIONS ON THIS FORUM because in reality you have NO OPINION!!!



What an idiotic statement and thread imho..I wouldn't expect to many friendly answers to your post..Almost everyone who visits the site has made selections at one time or another..

[KARMA]

just to clarify, im not talking about those that occasionally post a pick, im talking about the ones who list entire cards of 3 to 4 horses per race for every race for multiple tracks

maybe you can tell me why they do this?
are they trying to sell selections?
are they just "giving everyone their GREAT picks because they like you??
what is it?

regardless im still waiting to hear from someone who is truly using software to improve their handicapping and of course anyone who does this for a living

you can bash me all you like however if you are 1 of the CLUELESS on here your info will be like your selections A BIG JOKE

[ryesteve]

this is the reason for my question...if you ONLY can win by breaking even, and then benefiting from a rebate, how does a software program really benfit you???
You say that as if breaking even is an easy thing to do. If you're going up against a takeout of 20-25%, you still need to significantly outperform a large percentage of the crowd in order to reach the breakeven level. And not that "breakeven" is the best you can hope for, but even if it was, why is this a bad thing? If you can make money solely off a rebate, then bet someplace that will give you a rebate!

The fact that you don't see that, and the fact that you somehow think breakeven+rebate is the "ONLY" way to win based on the people you know personally, and your inability to distinguish between selection-posters who know what they're talking about vs. those who don't, tells me you're the kind of person who would be far better off sticking with exactly what you've been doing for the past 45 years. Open-mindedness and mental adaptability don't seem to be your strong suits.

[DanG]

Curious…

A more interesting question to me is what you would consider a “non-software” approach.

[KARMA]

Curious…

A more interesting question to me is what you would consider a “non-software” approach.

DanG

based on my
readings of posts so far you seem to be very knowledgeable
do you wager proffessionally? i think you use htr softwarethee
any info from you would be appreciated

also there is a poster named njsomething that also seems very knowledgible
any info from him would be helpful
thanks

[KARMA]

Curious…

A more interesting question to me is what you would consider a “non-software” approach.

to answer your question i handicap from the racing form
i have some records i keep that arent listed there that i get from the charts and replays and some trainer patterns( wkts mostly)
basically thats it
until 1993 i did mostly harness racing ( owned numerous, had 16 racing at the meadowlands in 1991)
in 93 i finally realized the value of betting the runners instead
hope this answers your question

[csmith]

i have read many books on handicapping and on the training of horses and have been handicapping for over 45 years myself and so far i have met 1 individual who makes his living wagering
the reason for his success is simple, he wagers between 3-10 million dollars a year and hopes to break even, thus gaining his 13% rebate as his annual salary

It seems to me your friend would be an excellent place for you to start. If he can break even and then get the rebate money, with your superior knowledge you have gained reading about handicapping and training you should have no problem making a living at this game.

[DanG]

to answer your question i handicap from the racing form
i have some records i keep that arent listed there that i get from the charts and replays and some trainer patterns( wkts mostly)
basically thats it
until 1993 i did mostly harness racing ( owned numerous, had 16 racing at the meadowlands in 1991)
in 93 i finally realized the value of betting the runners instead
hope this answers your question
Thanks for the reply Karma;

That leads to a point concerning “software” and what’s viewed as a more “traditional” information source.

The DRF is actually software in this sense. It’s just a report printed from software that DRF formats from information purchased from Equibase.

Correct; I use HTR software, but some reports I make decisions from would look very familiar to a DRF user for example.

A partner who recently retired used his own “software” approach…his wife!
His main focus was his hand written notes that she would file and retrieve on race day. I would produce a positional report he used, except that my ‘retrieval process took 8 seconds, where his wife took 45 minutes. Similar fishing bait, just a different rod and reel.

HTR does have unique algorithms that I’ve found to be very powerful when used in context, but my main reason for using them (3+ years ago) was to alleviate the gathering of data.

Like yourself, I’ve been at this a long time and some of the things I’ve done and the time invested are almost ridiculous when I look back on them.:bang:

Making all your own numbers for two circuits and all the feeder tracks is a very worthwhile quest, but incredibly time consuming. I’ve found that if you can find a trustworthy vendor (HTR & HDW) than your time is far better spent formulating betting strategies than it is gathering, storing and retrieving data.

I’ve found there are just flat out advantages in this tough game by using good software. I do admit I had knowledge of MS Access before signing on and it’s made exporting and reporting powerful. If I had to operate only from visual screens, I may not be so bullish. Many do however, such as the creator Ken Massa.

Advantage’s off the top of my head…



Less time gathering data.
Late scratches can be recalculated in seconds.
Unique factors that are hidden from the masses.
Less widely practiced on the circuits I play (NY & So Cal.)
Works far better in the hands of a strong player than with a player looking to remove themselves out of the process.
Custom reporting; I have virtually no limitations in what I can research or display (or not).
Spot Plays for example; have become a good source of profits and I wouldn’t know where to start without a database and good software to be honest.
I find these types of responses difficult to type out and still give a fair shake to the question. I’m not going to come on here and try and validate myself by quoting nets in a public forum. I save that foaming at the mouth for my artificial track rants! :jump:

Hope that addresses it somewhat / or does it just open the door wider? :)

[KARMA]

DanG

i love the idea of having the info stored in a database
access you say
is it difficult to use?
do you need formulas to give you the info you want and how does all of your info get into the database
hopefully these questions arent to basic for you to answer, but as i said i really am not a computer person, except to dl PP's and wager online
thanks again
i love your approach so far

[KARMA]

njcurveball is another i hope to hear from

seems at the top of his game
hopefully he will respond

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm surprised that after 45 years you still think there is a software or other automatic selection process that will enable someone to have a + ROI. Regardless of your method of handicapping, you still have to see each race as an individual event and adjust accordingly. One of those on this forum with a solid program, CJ, had Giacomo just prior to the Derby as having the best career ROI in the race!
There are a lot of programs or methods by which you can keep a + ROI without rebate if you how to apply it. I learned that by studying books on handicapping various types of races, stats on probabilities, and studying races of many types mainly in Northern Ca and at the NoCal fairs. I was able to study the big shot trainer Hollendorfer and the big shot rider Baze and figure out when their chances are decreased.
I predict track speed, relability of the race and "contenderrs", chances of 1 or more longshots, then bet accordingly when value is higher than odds. I have several methods of my own I mainly use in addition to spot plays. It also helps to have a relative who happens to be doing OK at handicapping uarterhorses!! Works pretty well for me!

[DanG]

DanG

i love the idea of having the info stored in a database
access you say
is it difficult to use?
do you need formulas to give you the info you want and how does all of your info get into the database
hopefully these questions arent to basic for you to answer, but as i said i really am not a computer person, except to dl PP's and wager online
thanks again
i love your approach so far
HTR I find relatively simple to use, but again…everyone will get different results depending upon how it fits them and what they bring to the table.

I would be lying my butt off if I said MSN Access is easy to learn. It took me longer than I‘ll ever admit to get what I wanted out of it…with one disclaimer. I’m virtually all self taught, so if you took classes etc…it would certainly speed the learning curve.

Far too involved to spell out what’s involved in exporting information and reporting etc…I wish I could boil it down to a few paragraphs but my writing skills just aren’t that efficient!

Again; many unanswered questions, but I need to back to the “software”.:)

PS: You’re right about NJCurveball (Jim) in his expertise. He is also far better at explaining complex subjects in a straight forward way.

Best of luck.

[cj]

One of those on this forum with a solid program, CJ, had Giacomo just prior to the Derby as having the best career ROI in the race!


I realize you are trying to be nice, and I appreciate it. My numbers did point to War Emblem and Funny Cide in the Derby when I was first starting with my program and posting here on PA.

However, and I say this in all honesty, if they had in any way, shape or form pointed to Giacomo I would have wiped my hard drive and been professionally brainwashed so there was no possible way of ever remembering whatever code I had written that put him on top.

He is the worst Derby winner since Sea Hero.

[jonnielu]

does anyone on this forum make a living betting horses? if so, do you use a software program? how long have you been doing it?

i have read these forums for awhile now and if you dont mind i would like to express some of my feelings towards what i have read :

1st - the people who post selections are CLUELESS !! I WOULD BE MORE THAN HAPPY to book all their action for the next MONTH ( only because they would be broke by then)

2nd - i have read many comments about software, have never tried any, but so far i think they are only a supplement to any handicapping one must do. is this correct?
i have read many books on handicapping and on the training of horses and have been handicapping for over 45 years myself and so far i have met 1 individual who makes his living wagering
the reason for his success is simple, he wagers between 3-10 million dollars a year and hopes to break even, thus gaining his 13% rebate as his annual salary
as a matter of fact he told me last year he lost 2% on his wagers(3.7 million) so his net was in excess of 400k

this is the reason for my question...if you ONLY can win by breaking even, and then benefiting from a rebate, how does a software program really benfit you???

hopefully someone will respond.....PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND IF YOU POST SELECTIONS ON THIS FORUM because in reality you have NO OPINION!!!

I would like to hear from the guys who use software and how they use it, which they use, and if after all expenses is it profitible. also can a non computer person such as myself be able to use such software??

thanks in advance

I probably don't meet your criteria for answers, but I do have a question.

How have you managed to get 45 years of experience without finding at least 1 consistently profitable betting situation at a race track?

jdl

[KARMA]

I probably don't meet your criteria for answers, but I do have a question.

How have you managed to get 45 years of experience without finding at least 1 consistently profitable betting situation at a race track?

jdl


who said i dint??
my question was concerning software that could help my handicapping, not for a black box answer
and my comments about the selections were exactly what i said
people trying to sell something, not helping anyone but themselves(they wish)
but i could be wrong because i only looked at the major track picks(whole cards of laughable 3 or 4 horse picks per race)
please correct me if i am wrong
and as far as my handicapping goes i would go head to head with anyone in the world and have no fear of being out handicapped whether you use software or not

so fellas bring it on if you wish

Dan G - thanks so much for the info you provided...i will have to brushup on acess and start inputting data, because there is not enough time everyday and it does get very boring after about 30 days straight, working 18+ hours a day to come up with winners & losers of course

thanks again dan

joe

[northerndancer]

Karma,
First I would suggest a softer approach when asking for assistance;

Second I really like HDW (Handicapper's Data Warehouse) http://www.horsedata.com/
I have found it to be the most reliable of handicapping assitants in the marketplace. I also like Thoroughgraph but I find that HDW is more consistent and also provides better paying horses (could this be because Thoroughgraph has a larger customer base?);

Third if you are going to do this for a living and plan to wager $5,000,000 per annum you will need a software program to assist you in making your selections. The fact of the matter is that it will be very difficult for you to handicap the multitude of races necessary to hit your volume in handle. When you speak to your friend ask him how many races he has to play in order to get his desired volume of handle. If we make the assumption you have a goal of $5,000 ,000 in handle and there are 60,000 races in which to wager on each year you would have to wager an average of $83 per race in order to get your desired handle..... if you wager on half you would need $166 wagered on each race..... if you wager on 25% of all races your it would be $249 per race (this would still be 15,000 races or 41 races a day which equates to 4+ cards a day every day of the year). The assumption here is that you would be able to get a rebate on every track and this currently is not the case in the rebate world (no rebates at TAM, NYRA, OAK, etc.);

Fourth to wager at this level you will also need to develop a sophisticated internal structure to handle the amount of wagers between yourself and your wagering service provider. The software you utilize in your wagering component of your operation would have to be in synch with your internal reporting process;

IMO for a person to wager at that level a software component for selection as well as appropriate reporting purposes will be required as it is not humanly possible for a person to do it without the software;

[KARMA]

1st off i am NOT going to be wagering anywhere near the figure you presented

i have been retired since 1988 and my wife and i live on a fixed income soooooo

as far as my friend he bets mostly supers and pick 3's 4's 5's and 6's and puts thru plenty of $$$ on each wager
he bets only tracks that have large handles in those specific pools ... i think a small wager for him is 1k
im checking out hdw now
thanks for the info

joe

oh yea, im sorry if i offended anyone but i feel that the guys putting up these " selections" are hoping to find fools to buy into their fantasy of them picking winners, which is NOT happening, unless im missing something

[JustRalph]

I realize you are trying to be nice, and I appreciate it. My numbers did point to War Emblem and Funny Cide in the Derby when I was first starting with my program and posting here on PA.

However, and I say this in all honesty, if they had in any way, shape or form pointed to Giacomo I would have wiped my hard drive and been professionally brainwashed so there was no possible way of ever remembering whatever code I had written that put him on top.

He is the worst Derby winner since Sea Hero.


:lol: :lol:

[Great Communicator]

** stands up, and in his best initial AA meeting voice, says**


I too, do not use a computer program of any kind, Karma.


I have been a casual weekend warrior and then internet warrior since the late 80's.

All I try to do is read the form, and look for things that may sway the crowd in the wrong direction. I also try to read between the lines of the form and play Dr. Doolittle a bit, trying to hear what the horse is saying about himself in his running history. And also try to figure out whether the humans behind the horse really want to extend this animal to his/her max today. And also looking for clues, or false clues, in the toteboard.

If I were to use a computer program, ideally I would like the computer program output to identify the winner of that particular race on this particular day.

If such a wonderful output to the computer program is unavailable, I guess I would like the output of said computer program to identify with great precision, the probabilty of each animal winning, so that I could hunt for overlays large enough to exceed the track take (- rebate).

Also, I would like the inputs to the computer program to be somewhat unique to what the crowd is doing, otherwise, all those using a similar computer program would be getting much the same results. Can't get overlays if everyone sees the same thing.

Finally, I would like the computer program to be so strong that it will stand up to the test of time. Having a computer program that will identify winners or overlays for the next 10 months, and then suddenly not being able to do so, would not be so good for the bankroll.


Does such a computer program exist?

[PaceAdvantage]

Why is it that my many years of experience running this show tell me that the original poster is being slightly less than sincere with the intent of this thread?

Sincere folks don't start a thread bashing an entire subset of posters, especially doing so without any specific examples or stats to back up the bashing.

[cj]

...
i have been retired since 1988 and my wife and i live on a fixed income soooooo


I'd find a new hobby.

[KARMA]

specific examples you say???

go look at yesterdays posts for SA
or any other days posts for SA, BIG A, GULFSTREAM, FG or whatever
hahahaha
specific posts, my god, they ALL suck
and to you (all the advertisers trying to bash me let me take a long lmao @ you all
guarentee $50k in profits after your course hahahahahaha
i would bet you dont have 50k
hahahahahha
get real fools

there is NO magic that is going to give you or me winners
and my stsatement still stands
I WILL BOOK YOUR ACTION
bring it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you wont because you also know your selections suck

hahahaha
enough from the fools
lets hear from more with knowledge like DAN

[ranchwest]

** stands up, and in his best initial AA meeting voice, says**


I too, do not use a computer program of any kind, Karma.


I have been a casual weekend warrior and then internet warrior since the late 80's.

All I try to do is read the form, and look for things that may sway the crowd in the wrong direction. I also try to read between the lines of the form and play Dr. Doolittle a bit, trying to hear what the horse is saying about himself in his running history. And also try to figure out whether the humans behind the horse really want to extend this animal to his/her max today. And also looking for clues, or false clues, in the toteboard.

If I were to use a computer program, ideally I would like the computer program output to identify the winner of that particular race on this particular day.

If such a wonderful output to the computer program is unavailable, I guess I would like the output of said computer program to identify with great precision, the probabilty of each animal winning, so that I could hunt for overlays large enough to exceed the track take (- rebate).

Also, I would like the inputs to the computer program to be somewhat unique to what the crowd is doing, otherwise, all those using a similar computer program would be getting much the same results. Can't get overlays if everyone sees the same thing.

Finally, I would like the computer program to be so strong that it will stand up to the test of time. Having a computer program that will identify winners or overlays for the next 10 months, and then suddenly not being able to do so, would not be so good for the bankroll.


Does such a computer program exist?

Computers do what they're told, by programmers and users. Just as computers have difficulties beating people at chess, computers have trouble outperforming people in handicapping as far as pure picking.

It is difficult to get a computer to understand that in a 4k claimer at some little bullring track going 1 mile with jockey A on horse B in what sets up to be a chaos race that horse B either will or will not win. A person is probably more likely to figure it out.

However, people make informed decisions based on information (informed-information). In making decisions from paper, such as a printed DRF form, the information comes from a database and is printed in a more or less static format.

In one regard, the static format of the printed DRF is an advantage to people because the data is always in the same place. It becomes familiar.

However, the fact that the printed DRF is static is also its biggest disadvantage because the one view is the only option and it is the option everyone gets.

With the information in a file, the data can be processed in any way that a programmer can manage.

An individual can program the computer or can purchase a program. Some of today's programs offer a lot of options of viewpoints, so not everyone is focusing on the same view of the data. It is possible to have somewhat unique views.

As far as connection intent, connections have their intent and some/all of the connections know what that intent is and everyone else is left to guess, whether they have/use a computer or not.

IMHO, your concerns are better addressed with a computer program than with a printed DRF.

[KARMA]

and to you (all the advertisers trying to bash me let me take a long lmao @ you all
guarentee $50k in profits after your course hahahahahaha
i would bet you dont have 50k
hahahahahha
get real fools

there is NO magic that is going to give you or me winners
and my stsatement still stands
I WILL BOOK YOUR ACTION
bring it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you wont because you also know your selections suck


specifically :
cj
jonnielu
hammerhead
csmith

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, there you go....the ol' PA Radar is still golden.....only took 15 posts to implode....

[cj]

and to you (all the advertisers trying to bash me let me take a long lmao @ you all
guarentee $50k in profits after your course hahahahahaha
i would bet you dont have 50k
hahahahahha
get real fools

there is NO magic that is going to give you or me winners
and my stsatement still stands
I WILL BOOK YOUR ACTION
bring it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you wont because you also know your selections suck


specifically :
cj
jonnielu
hammerhead
csmith

Trust me, if you are on a fixed income, you'd be lucky to be able to book my action for more than a day or two.

[Donnie]

Hi Karma....doubt I fit the criteria you request, but what the hell.

I personally use an Access database and have for years. Is it a blackbox? Of course not. It is but another tool. The way you use the Form, many of us, Dan included, use a database, be it Access or any other, to shape the data into a format that works for us. Some people use their database to "mine" for repetitive criteria. Some, myself included, use it to "churn and burn". I want specific data located directly next to other data to make what I feel are valid comparisons and contrasts. But my decisions are still "handicapper based", not software based. The subjectivity is still in place.

As per Access, the learning curve can be steep for the beginner. However, being retired, you have the one thing many do not....time. Go here... http://www.homebased2.com/km/dnl/HTR2%20Access%20Manual.pdf ....down load the manual I wrote a few years ago and another gentleman, Mike Dee, has enhanced and rewritten. If nothing else, it will give you a kick-start if you wish to travel down the db road. HTR has helped many a fine tournament player and they have been very successful. I take pride in that many of them had attended Ken Massa's seminars in Las Vegas and I had the honor of helping some them either get started or further their working knowledge of Access. Many others on the HTR board have helped the newly acquainted. But the environment there is excellent if you are a bit unsure of asking questions about Acces or dbs. (the unsure part I don't pick up in your posts ;) )

I personally do not make my living off the horses ....yet. But I have a lot of fun and tend to make a little change on the side, both thru sporadiac play and tournaments. Once my boys are done with college and on their own, then I would like to take a whack at doing it fulltime. There is one person on here that I know is a bona-fide daily horseplayer, and makes his living off of racing. He is an owner and one of the sharpest handicappers I have ever met. He just this past week joined as an HTR subscriber. I have not spoken with him about his reason, but most people want to save time crunching the numbers, or maybe there is a specific set of numbers or ratings they can make good use of. No, I did not say that will give them winners. It is still a tool. It must still be mastered.

[asH]

that was entertaining
:D

[njcurveball]

It is still a tool. It must still be mastered.

AND what always needs to be said in these threads. It is NOT the Hammer, but the Carpenter using it! The indian, the arrow, whatever analogy you would like.

I can take the same clubs Tiger Woods just used to win the Masters and go out on the same course and add 50 strokes to his score. Then I guess I can post here how NO ONE could ever win with THOSE clubs! :bang:

[jonnielu]

specific examples you say???

go look at yesterdays posts for SA
or any other days posts for SA, BIG A, GULFSTREAM, FG or whatever
hahahaha
specific posts, my god, they ALL suck
and to you (all the advertisers trying to bash me let me take a long lmao @ you all
guarentee $50k in profits after your course hahahahahaha
i would bet you dont have 50k
hahahahahha
get real fools

there is NO magic that is going to give you or me winners
and my stsatement still stands
I WILL BOOK YOUR ACTION
bring it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you wont because you also know your selections suck

hahahaha
enough from the fools
lets hear from more with knowledge like DAN

Are you making sport of my guarantee?

jdl

[judd]

and to you (all the advertisers trying to bash me let me take a long lmao @ you all
guarentee $50k in profits after your course hahahahahaha
i would bet you dont have 50k
hahahahahha
get real fools

there is NO magic that is going to give you or me winners
and my stsatement still stands
I WILL BOOK YOUR ACTION
bring it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you wont because you also know your selections suck


specifically :
cj
jonnielu
hammerhead
csmith
you can beat a race but you cant beat the races

[Jeff P]

does anyone on this forum make a living betting horses?Yes. I do it. There are others posting on this site who do it too.


if so, do you use a software program? how long have you been doing it?Yes. I use software. Hint: I wrote the program that I use. I first began recording results and analyzing methods of play by hand in 1981... first devised a successful method of play in 1982... began writing a Basic program to automate the process of identifying my own spot plays in 1984. That program later evolved into the propgram I use today.

In my life I've had several failed attempts at betting for a living. Looking back, I can attribute each failed attempt not to a lack of handicapping prowess but to a lack of DISCIPLINE... In my own case I'm referring specifically to making action bets which bled away enough profits from the plays I came to the track to make that I wasn't making enough money overall to grow a bankroll and pay my monthly bills. I quit a very nice job to try it in Feb 1999 and made almost 7k my first month on my intended spot plays... and gave about 5k of that back in action bets. I didn't realize it then but looking back now I realize that I was little more than a degenerate gambler at the time.

It wasn't until I conquered my own action bet demons that I was finally able to turn the corner and do this for real. That was in 2004. Do the math... 2004 minus 1981... 23 years... That's how long it took me to get over the hump.


this is the reason for my question...if you ONLY can win by breaking even, and then benefiting from a rebate, how does a software program really benfit you???I can play profitably with or wthout a rebate. Forced to play without a rebate I become extremely selective - playing only those horses that are obvious overlays to me.

Allow me to play with a rebate and I'll use it as a safety net. I'll create specific betting models to take advantage of rebates. Rebates let me jump into races and pools I'd never even consider without them. Rebates change the game for me - making it possible to increase my own handle and bet amounts 40-50 times over what would otherwise be possible for me without them.

I'm guessing your friend would tell you much the same thing.


Finally, I would like the computer program to be so strong that it will stand up to the test of time. Having a computer program that will identify winners or overlays for the next 10 months, and then suddenly not being able to do so, would not be so good for the bankroll.

Does such a computer program exist?Yes. In fact there are several.


what always needs to be said in these threads. It is NOT the Hammer, but the Carpenter using it! The indian, the arrow, whatever analogy you would like.

I can take the same clubs Tiger Woods just used to win the Masters and go out on the same course and add 50 strokes to his score. Then I guess I can post here how NO ONE could ever win with THOSE clubs!VERY good point. There are several very good software programs for sale. Just because you buy one (mine included) does not mean that you will ever transform yourself from a losing player into a winning player.

There are many different ways one can approach this game and win. I know paddock players who can win without ever once needing to look at past performances or software output. I know other guys who win almost exclusively with trainer patterns. Others do it by recognizing track bias... still others use pace... others breeding. And then there are guys like me who create comprehensive models based on any and all factor combinations that are available to them.

That's just ONE PHASE of what you need to do to win. IMHO it's only half the battle - AT MOST. I haven't even talked about BETTING yet. I've found that I can greatly magnify my returns using my selections INTELLIGENTLY in doubles, pick-3's, pick-4's, exactas, trifectas, and supers vs. what I might be able to achieve using straight bets alone. Coming to that realization and learning how to structure my tickets the right way took a LOT of hard work.

In the end I've come to believe that winning actually comes down to identifying good bets and bad bets - and being able to muster the discipline and internal fortitude to play the former and avoid the latter.

There are TWO THINGS I can attribute my own success to:

1. Discipline
2. Hard Work

IMHO those two things are what really separates those who can from those who cant.


-jp

.

[DeanT]

Always nice to read your thoughts Jeff.

I had never read the Ed Bain 4+30 book. I bought it awhile back. I finally read it last night. He has incredible discipline, and only bets win bets. He has honed his betting over the years.

I used to be of the opinion that you can win myriad ways at the game. People go for "scores", bet ex's, tri's whatever; others are like Ed. I am becoming more and more convinced however, that the game is easier to win at being solely a win bettor. I think it is forced discipline, it helps to stop you from going on tilt, helps stop nasty bankroll swings, and helps eliminate ruin.

JMO, (and no, I am not saying you CANT win betting exotics) but that is what I have come up with over the years.

[ManeMediaMogul]

The problem with posting picks is not knowing what the price will be. The only way to win is to be able to evaluate (using a pen and the Form, a computer or a crystal ball) the true chance a horse has to win and get a price that exceeds that chance.

Most players miss this. They "fall in love" with a horse and bet him even if the price does not remotely reflect his true chances of winning.

You can develop a winning strategy without a computer. All you need is a few "overlays" a week and enough of a bankroll to make them count in order to make a decent living.

[Donnie]

Jeff>>> :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

There are TWO THINGS I can attribute my own success to:

1. Discipline
2. Hard Work

IMHO those two things are what really separates those who can from those who cant.

If someone thinks there is any other way, I would consider them delusional. The people who I know who do this for a living possess both traits above. All of them have a great work ethic and put in the time.

Dean--
I have always wondered, if a person, such as Ed, were successful in the win betting department, how many of them play a 2-4-8 betting unit structure....if any. Or do they find themselves in a win-OUT-OUT situation too often?

[jonnielu]

Jeff>>> :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:



If someone thinks there is any other way, I would consider them delusional. The people who I know who do this for a living possess both traits above. All of them have a great work ethic and put in the time.

Dean--
I have always wondered, if a person, such as Ed, were successful in the win betting department, how many of them play a 2-4-8 betting unit structure....if any. Or do they find themselves in a win-OUT-OUT situation too often?

Most successful win bettors, bet to win only, or pass. Bet, or don't bet, will keep your head straight. Backing up usually leads to doubt and second guessing, both of which are destructive to a positive mindset.

jdl

[dav4463]

Posting selections is fun. It makes you a better handicapper if you do it on a regular basis. I would probably do it if I had the time. You get bragging rights when you post and trash-talk with friends. Some people make money selling selections. Who cares what the reason is for posting? Why bash others for doing it?

Try handicapping the handicappers sometime. Most reasonable handicappers that post have a subset of races that they are stronger at than others. Some are better at stakes races, some at cheap claiming routes, whatever...if you know which handicappers are best at certain races/circuits, you can make money off of them if you wait for profitable odds.

I know that because a man I met a long time ago who introduced me to horseracing did just that. He was a truck driver who used selection sheets from four handicappers that he followed religiously at four different tracks. He knew their strengths and weaknesses and when his selection agreed with his favorite handicappers selection, he jumped on it and made a nice supplemental income to go with his truck driving.

I had no reason to doubt him because I watched him cash tickets almost every time we went to the track together. He handicapped a race in about two minutes, checked his handicapper's selection and decided on a bet. He usually bet to win only and played the daily doubles.

[cj]

you can beat a race but you cant beat the races

Why do people insist on reciting this complete fallacy? The truth is 180 degrees in the other direction.

[Ilovedracing]

Personally I cannot reply to this post as I would be banned for life from the internet. What drivel! :lol:

I second that. :lol:

[Ilovedracing]

you can beat a race but you cant beat the races

FAILED.:lol:

[Donnie]

cj--
just out of curiousity, do you care sharing your betting structures? Are you strictly win....win/exacta....? If not, that's cool!

[DeanT]

Jeff>>> :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:



If someone thinks there is any other way, I would consider them delusional. The people who I know who do this for a living possess both traits above. All of them have a great work ethic and put in the time.

Dean--
I have always wondered, if a person, such as Ed, were successful in the win betting department, how many of them play a 2-4-8 betting unit structure....if any. Or do they find themselves in a win-OUT-OUT situation too often?

Hi Donnie,

He addressed that in his book and I tend to agree. He found it a pain in the neck. One thing that I think people cant quite see, or feel, or give credit to is betting threshold's. Ed's is $200. He tried $400 and got sweaty palms. $200WPS or $200, $400, $800 might drive some nuts.

I think Ed has it right. $200 to win is fine for him. $50 for other people, or $500 for others, it doesnt matter, we're all different.

I am completely biased, because the players I know who bet for a living bet win. I am sure (100% sure) there are others who win who bet exotics, but I have to think that your blood pressure is higher that way, much more than the comfy threshold win bettor.

[njcurveball]

you can beat a race but you cant beat the races


God Bless You! I always think of my good friend Al (more like a 2nd father!). He use to say this to me all the time. The man who introduced my brother and I to a lifetime of racing, the man who bought the Armstrong sheet, remember that one? He knew all of the symbols on it and yet could not get past his strategy of boxing the 3 favorites (usually) in the exactas and trifectas. He also NEEDED to know EVERY POUND overweight or underweight! Dutifully marking them on his program.

Brings back warm memories to hear someone say this! Al would never change his strategy, he KNEW he was doing the right thing. And even his losses and his mindset that you CAN'T BEAT THE RACES would never sway him!

I learned a lot by watching Al and if I told him I learned what NOT to do, he would probably hit me so hard, I would go 6 furlongs in 1:09. :D

LOVE to hear this from people like you! Wish the racing game had millions! :ThmbUp:


thanks for the warm memories!
Jim

[Greyfox]

1st - the people who post selections are CLUELESS !! I ( only because they would be broke by then)



I've posted 1 pick on this board ever. It won.

You're the man.

If you want to "book" my action I have a Paypal account.
Please explain how you intend to transfer wagers to my account, if
I have a winner.

There might be several on the board who are willing to take up your offer.

Greyfox.

[Kelso]

I have several methods of my own I mainly use in addition to spot plays.


What is the fundamental difference between a "method" and a "spot play?" (Is a method essentially a spot play that shows up frequently? Serious question.)

Thank you, all.

[JustRalph]

Hey, anybody want to verify that Tiger Woods analogy? I use Jeff's software (clubs) and Lost my ass over the last week.

So I guess Jeff is Tiger and I am still Ralph .......... :lol: :lol:

[cj]

cj--
just out of curiousity, do you care sharing your betting structures? Are you strictly win....win/exacta....? If not, that's cool!

For the past year plus a few months, I'm betting win and P3s, mostly win.

[Foolish Pleasure]

I'm surprised that after 45 years you still think there is a software or other automatic selection process that will enable someone to have a + ROI.



Without including the "available to the public" caveat this statement is not true.


The fact is the derivative programs borne of the Benter/Woods sim program is what basically determines the prices of most races in North America.


It is pretty staggering how few people actually understand who and what they are betting against and just how badly their bb guns are outgunned compared to the tank and air corps of your avg pro's resources.

It only grows geometrically daily-as the pro amasses more money he spends it on his operation-your avg rec player is purely in defensive mode 99.9999% of the time.

[Overlay]

What is the fundamental difference between a "method" and a "spot play?" (Is a method essentially a spot play that shows up frequently? Serious question.)

Thank you, all.

Just speaking for myself, I always considered a method to be comparative in nature, where you were narrowing down a field to arrive at a decision as to which horse to bet by looking at the relative merits of each horse in the race on a variety of factors, whereas with a spot play you would be looking for a specific pre-defined set of performance characteristics, and betting any individual horse that conformed to those conditions. To me, "spot play" is basically synonymous with "angle", whereas "method" is more comprehensive.

[PaceAdvantage]

Without including the "available to the public" caveat this statement is not true.


The fact is the derivative programs borne of the Benter/Woods sim program is what basically determines the prices of most races in North America.


It is pretty staggering how few people actually understand who and what they are betting against and just how badly their bb guns are outgunned compared to the tank and air corps of your avg pro's resources.

It only grows geometrically daily-as the pro amasses more money he spends it on his operation-your avg rec player is purely in defensive mode 99.9999% of the time.For the first time in a long time, I actually find myself enjoying a post of yours, as I nod along in agreement.

Same thing applies to retail traders in the financial markets.

[shanta]

He is the worst Derby winner since Sea Hero.

Sea Hero was the biggest lock in any derby and here is why.

3 days or so before the Derby Mack Miller had a big article in the Form saying how he had mismanaged his charge (Sea Hero) since winning the Champagne the previous November. Laid it all out from sending him to a much too hot climate to not caring properly for S.H. when he got sick. At the end of the article he says how tremendous the horse was NOW coming to the race and that all problems were behind and the horse was gonna run huge.

When I read that last part I told 3 buddies at the Meadowlands the horse was a mortal lock at a big price. Mack Miller was like E.F. Hutton. When he spoke folks better listen. Not like some of the blow hard trainers around at the time.

Horse crushes the field at like 12/1. After you see Miller with that shit eating grin like " I told you boys but you didn't wanna listen" ! Lmao

Woody and Mack. When they spoke you listened :ThmbUp:

[Donnie]

Thanks cj...never place or show?

[ImCashinIn]

If ya don't like the "free selections" given in here or the software programs that are out there, I suggest you find another hobby. No one is perfect. At least not as perfect as you seem to want.:ThmbDown:

[ManeMediaMogul]

I personally love - 1 unit to win, 2 units to place.

Most of the horses I play are in the 9/2 to 8/1 range. If one manages to run second, I still win, even though my horse didn't.

When betting larger amounts the profits can be significant and I never have to worry about seconditis.

[cj]

Sea Hero was the biggest lock in any derby and here is why.

3 days or so before the Derby Mack Miller had a big article in the Form saying how he had mismanaged his charge (Sea Hero) since winning the Champagne the previous November. Laid it all out from sending him to a much too hot climate to not caring properly for S.H. when he got sick. At the end of the article he says how tremendous the horse was NOW coming to the race and that all problems were behind and the horse was gonna run huge.

When I read that last part I told 3 buddies at the Meadowlands the horse was a mortal lock at a big price. Mack Miller was like E.F. Hutton. When he spoke folks better listen. Not like some of the blow hard trainers around at the time.

Horse crushes the field at like 12/1. After you see Miller with that shit eating grin like " I told you boys but you didn't wanna listen" ! Lmao

Woody and Mack. When they spoke you listened :ThmbUp:

I won't argue that, I just know he was pretty darn slow compared to nearly every other Derby winner I can remember.

[cj]

Thanks cj...never place or show?

I used to bet place, and while providing occasional comfort when a longshot ran 2nd, it cost me money in the end.

Show only in the rare event of a bridgejumper.

[trying2win]

Another real good thread. Some very interesting and informative answers here.:ThmbUp:

[nobeyerspls]

just to clarify, im not talking about those that occasionally post a pick, im talking about the ones who list entire cards of 3 to 4 horses per race for every race for multiple tracks

maybe you can tell me why they do this?
are they trying to sell selections?
are they just "giving everyone their GREAT picks because they like you??
what is it?

you can bash me all you like however if you are 1 of the CLUELESS on here your info will be like your selections A BIG JOKE

You are both mean spirited and wrong. I make a little money at this but do not do it for a living. I am involved Thursday through Saturday as any more time makes it seem like work instead of a hobby. For most years the track winnings buy my beer, gas and entertainment but last year the profits were much better than that.
If you go to the Selections section and look for threads titled "Cappin Chatter" you will see selections posted by the fictional players nicknamed Chalky and Longball. One is a fundamental handicapper with class as his first screen. He makes large win bets, usually on favorites. The second is a longshot player who relies on surface and certain angles. He prefers to make small exotic bets. Both of them list the reasons for their picks. They were three out of six Saturday with another one running 2nd. One of the winners paid $25. They also posted an exacta earlier that paid $107 for a buck. If you booked their bets both would be going home with some of your fixed income in their pockets. Stay tuned because a third handicapper named Figman is joining them on Thursday.
I do not sell anything and any information given is in the spirit of the forum which is an exchange of ideas among people with a common interest.

[Figman]

I'm not joining anybody on Thursday!

[nobeyerspls]

I'm not joining anybody on Thursday!

Sorry about that. I made up that "fictictious" name not knowing that you were among us. The guy joining my twosome on Thursday is now named Figgy (subject to change if there is a real Figgy).

[alysheba88]

you can beat a race but you cant beat the races

You have that backwards actually (sorry didnt see earlier posts saying same)

Agree with those saying first post of this thread is mean spirited and agenda ridden

[Kelso]

Just speaking for myself, I always considered a method to be comparative in nature, where you were narrowing down a field to arrive at a decision as to which horse to bet by looking at the relative merits of each horse in the race on a variety of factors, whereas with a spot play you would be looking for a specific pre-defined set of performance characteristics, and betting any individual horse that conformed to those conditions. To me, "spot play" is basically synonymous with "angle", whereas "method" is more comprehensive.

That draws a pretty clear distinction for me. Thank you, Overlay.