Artificial surfaces are a passing fad...

[PaceAdvantage]

They just cancelled the last race at "Polytrack" Turfway. I suppose it's because it's very, very cold out there, but they DID run almost every race today....

I did notice that there is an INCREDIBLE amount of KICKBACK coming up today at Turfway, so I'm guessing that perhaps the track surface has something to do with this last race cancellation....the jockeys probably requested respirators if management was going to press the issue.....of course, they blame the cold officially, hoping we'll conveniently forget that they were able to run the first ten races today.....

So, now we can't run artificial when it gets very hot (Hollywood had problems with heat, did they not?) We can't run artificial when it gets very wet (Santa Anita), and it's been proven many different times that we can't run artificial when it gets very cold (Turfway and Woodbine).

So, this begs the question....what was the point?

I just can't see, with all the potential hazards of these artificial surfaces, that the good outweighs the bad. Unless someone comes up with a "better way," how can other venues justify saying "count me in" when it comes to adopting these problematic alternatives to all natural dirt?

Paul Moran was dead on in his latest blog about this subject. It's a good thing NYRA is in financial trouble, or we may have seen the installation of these troublesome surfaces here in NY, which would have truly sucked.

[Southieboy]

They cancelled Tommorow

[Marshall Bennett]

... and even when conditions are ideal , handicapping is an adventure . They keep saying to give it time and everyone will adjust . I only see the situation getting worse . Hopefully NYRA will avoid this nightmare and we'll have at least one major venue to enjoy !!

[Bobzilla]

I was told that Michael the mad genius Dickinson was recently quoted as saying all major North American tracks will be synthetic within the next several years. In the wake of some of the recent synthetic track problems perhaps that was wishful thinking on his part.

The rush to install these surfaces without sufficient due diligence is all the proof I need to conclude that the decision to install them had much more to do with reasons other than safety. Safety was only the post Barbaro disaster rallying cry and a public relation ploy. I don't necesarilly hate these surfaces and I've enjoyed some success handicapping races run on them as I maintain a wait and see approach, but the sneaky and disingenuous way the industry has publically dealth with the subject is insulting to anyone who is capable of thinking for themselves.

[David-LV]

It is amazing that almost everybody comes to the conclusion that synthetic surfaces were not the miracle cure all.

If these tracks would have fixed the bases of their surfaces, they would have saved themselves a ton of money and would not have turned this sport into the joke that we are all witnessing right now.

The quicker they rip out these synthetic surfaces and go back to dirt the better.

Still nobody has done any testing on the effects of breathing in these synthetic particles.

I sure hope that the jockeys and other people that are forced to being exposed to these hazardous surfaces have good health coverage because I believe they are probably going to need it much sooner than later.

It is a shame when greed wins out over common sense.

_________
David

[PaceAdvantage]

If these tracks would have fixed the bases of their surfaces, they would have saved themselves a ton of money and would not have turned this sport into the joke that we are all witnessing right now.I'm inclined to agree that addressing their original track surfaces instead of throwing the baby out with the bathwater was a better idea.

Still nobody has done any testing on the effects of breathing in these synthetic particles. If they're looking for a study group, all the jockeys and horses that ran at Turfway today should be an excellent sample. I haven't seen that much kickback ever....

[Steve 'StatMan']

From Turfway's Website - www.turfway.com

Sunday's races canceled
With frigid temperatures and single-digit windchill expected, Turfway Park has canceled live racing for Sunday, January 20. The track will remain open for simulcasting, with gates opening at 11:15 am. Live racing is expected to resume as scheduled on Wednesday at 1:10 pm.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Just checked Turfway's current weather on www.weather.com 13 degrees, Wind 10mph makes feel like 0 degrees. With horses running at 40 MPH at the beginning, that might feel significantly colder. Interesting note about the kickback - well below zero wind chills while racing + getting sand blasted by very cold polytrack particles (or any surface with kickback) = no fun for riders and horses.

Overall, though, yes, something doesn't seem right with AW's.

[Norm]

The flip-side of the coin is that Oaklawn just installed a new DIRT track and has been getting rave reviews from horsemen. :ThmbUp:

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Turfway used to cancel almost every other day in the winter before they installed the Poly; I'd say it's been pretty successful.

[the little guy]

Michael Dickinson makes a great deal of money when synthetic surfaces are installed. Everything he says should be accompanied by an asterisk explaining this.

NYRA will not be installing any synthetic surfaces. They're way too smart to do something like that.

[garyoz]

Turfway used to cancel almost every other day in the winter before they installed the Poly; I'd say it's been pretty successful.


Great point...bit of a hyperbole, but they used to cancel alot. The weather here is really bad, windchill in the negative mid-teens. High Sunday in the mid-teens with windchill around zero. They would cancel whatever the surface.

Looks like we will be hearing a blame the poly accusation for any negative development that happens. Sort of like global warming....

[kenwoodallpromos]

The flip-side of the coin is that Oaklawn just installed a new DIRT track and has been getting rave reviews from horsemen. :ThmbUp:
From an OP thread today:
"Gets passed inside the final eighth by the longest shot on the board (49-1) while finishing three clear of the show horse; looks like an animal that will find a way to lose."
How's that for 1 race taken out of context?
Today at OP minimum payoff 6f or longer was $16.80 ($100 longest); yesterday minimum payout 6f or longer was $9. SA this meet average win payout was under $7, most winners E or P, inside or middle. So much for the "adventure" and OP argument!LOL!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

They just cancelled the last race at "Polytrack" Turfway. I suppose it's because it's very, very cold out there, but they DID run almost every race today....

I did notice that there is an INCREDIBLE amount of KICKBACK coming up today at Turfway, so I'm guessing that perhaps the track surface has something to do with this last race cancellation....the jockeys probably requested respirators if management was going to press the issue.....of course, they blame the cold officially, hoping we'll conveniently forget that they were able to run the first ten races today.....

So, now we can't run artificial when it gets very hot (Hollywood had problems with heat, did they not?) We can't run artificial when it gets very wet (Santa Anita), and it's been proven many different times that we can't run artificial when it gets very cold (Turfway and Woodbine).

So, this begs the question....what was the point?

I just can't see, with all the potential hazards of these artificial surfaces, that the good outweighs the bad. Unless someone comes up with a "better way," how can other venues justify saying "count me in" when it comes to adopting these problematic alternatives to all natural dirt?

Paul Moran was dead on in his latest blog about this subject. It's a good thing NYRA is in financial trouble, or we may have seen the installation of these troublesome surfaces here in NY, which would have truly sucked.
Moran also addressed track speed. Here is an article I found surrounding the 2001 KY Derby:
"http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D03E5DF1E3AF93BA25756C0A9679C8B 63"

[bigmack]

NYRA will not be installing any synthetic surfaces. They're way too smart to do something like that.
:lol::lol:

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

From an OP thread today:
"Gets passed inside the final eighth by the longest shot on the board (49-1) while finishing three clear of the show horse; looks like an animal that will find a way to lose."
How's that for 1 race taken out of context?
Today at OP minimum payoff 6f or longer was $16.80 ($100 longest); yesterday minimum payout 6f or longer was $9. SA this meet average win payout was under $7, most winners E or P, inside or middle. So much for the "adventure" and OP argument!LOL!!

Taken out of context? How do you figure that? The horse fades badly, drops, gets eased, drops again and loses yet again. I might be wrong but it looks like the horse is finished and next time out if he's favored, I'm trying to beat him.

[46zilzal]

I heard the same malarkey when Tartan track was put it.
I heard the same malarkey when Equitrack was put it.

They didn't last....

[PaceAdvantage]

Just checked Turfway's current weather on www.weather.com (http://www.weather.com/) 13 degrees, Wind 10mph makes feel like 0 degrees. With horses running at 40 MPH at the beginning, that might feel significantly colder. Interesting note about the kickback - well below zero wind chills while racing + getting sand blasted by very cold polytrack particles (or any surface with kickback) = no fun for riders and horses.Well, this begs the question then....how were they able to run the first ELEVEN races on Saturday, but the 12th had to be cancelled? It makes no sense. It was cold all day long, was it not?

[PaceAdvantage]

NYRA will not be installing any synthetic surfaces. They're way too smart to do something like that.Not even any training track surfaces?

[Steve 'StatMan']

Well, this begs the question then....how were they able to run the first ELEVEN races on Saturday, but the 12th had to be cancelled? It makes no sense. It was cold all day long, was it not?

Yup. It does seem odd. Would be interesting to know it came about, though I didn't follow the card.

[David-LV]

Yup. It does seem odd. Would be interesting to know it came about, though I didn't follow the card.

One reason I can tell you how it came about had to be that the kickback made it look like the horses were running in a sand storm.

________
David

[Capper Al]

Poly tracks are here to stay. There have been less injuries. They may be now finding out some of there limitations. It may be more wishful thinking for an era where pace made sense, but get used to poly tracks pace boys. With million dollar animals running and less injuries, the racing industry will continue to support poly tracks.

[GlenninOhio]

Well, this begs the question then....how were they able to run the first ELEVEN races on Saturday, but the 12th had to be cancelled? It makes no sense. It was cold all day long, was it not?

The 11th race was the stakes race feature, so getting this one in was probably of some priority.

Not to mention that with an 11-horse field this race was pretty much guaranteed to generate the biggest single-race handle on the card, which it did - by far.

Not that I disagree with the bigger points Pace makes in this thread - just an FYI.

[DanG]

With 100+ years of racing in the dirt and all the injuries, cancellations etc that have taken place I see very little current perspective with roughly 1% of the live data in.

Does anyone honestly remember Turfway on dirt this time of year?

My “agenda” on the matter was formed by two main events and my admittedly over the top concern for horses / riders health. (A concern very much shared by Mike at PA btw from what I can ascertain.) Talking extensively with trainer Ian Jory and watching animals train over both surfaces. The benefits to “my mind” were obvious and the foundation for my “agenda” was born.

Of course animals will continue to get hurt and temperature issues must be addressed. I saw someone the other day list a ‘cherry picked sample at Golden Gate and one of their examples was the ‘saddle slipped. :rolleyes: If only the horseplayer’s rights were under such scrutiny we would all be better off.

Example of “perspective”; 'Dickenson can’t be trusted and NYRA is a bastion of intelligence…Please! :)

[Rook]

Unlike owners or jockeys who are rightfully concerned about safety, as a handicapper, the bottom line for me is not how pretty the races are run but whether I can make money on a particular surface. Of the tracks currently running, Turfway has been by far my most profitable track over the past few months, so count me in as one of its biggest supporters.:ThmbUp:

[Spendabuck85]

Michael Dickinson makes a great deal of money when synthetic surfaces are installed. Everything he says should be accompanied by an asterisk explaining this.

NYRA will not be installing any synthetic surfaces. They're way too smart to do something like that.

But the idiotic NY politicians are dumb enough to mandate it

[john del riccio]

Well, this begs the question then....how were they able to run the first ELEVEN races on Saturday, but the 12th had to be cancelled? It makes no sense. It was cold all day long, was it not?

The EQUIBASE site listed the cancellation as due to "WEATHER CONDITIONS".:lol: :lol: :lol:

JOhn

[cnollfan]

Unlike owners or jockeys who are rightfully concerned about safety, as a handicapper, the bottom line for me is not how pretty the races are run but whether I can make money on a particular surface. Of the tracks currently running, Turfway has been by far my most profitable track over the past few months, so count me in as one of its biggest supporters.:ThmbUp:

Good point. I am an artificial surface agnostic, and do think there was a foolish rush to install it without much study. But at the same time, I think that what some of those who say that artificial surfaces will ruin horse racing really mean is that their own handicapping and betting methods aren't working well on it. It's a zero sum game. If something isn't working, then by definition, something else is.

[ryesteve]

If something isn't working, then by definition, something else is.This could very well be true when it comes to poly, but in general, I would question this conclusion. If a process goes from being predictable to being random, then >nothing< is working.

[rastajenk]

As a matter of fact, it did get considerably colder throughout the day.

I'm just guessing here, but I'd think there is considerable difference, from a jock's p.o.v., between facing more than the usual "kickback" from poly, and trying to dodge golfball-size clods flung at you from close range.

Getting in the eleventh race stakes is surely the key element in yesterday's decision-making. There may be lots of good arguments against non-dirt surfaces around the country, but Turfway isn't one of them.

[cj's dad]

Poly tracks are here to stay. There have been less injuries. They may be now finding out some of there limitations. It may be more wishful thinking for an era where pace made sense, but get used to poly tracks pace boys. With million dollar animals running and less injuries, the racing industry will continue to support poly tracks.

The big stumbling block in removing artificial surfaces IF it is determined that they are unsafe will be the "powers that be" will have to admit that a mistake was made (which they approved) and CEO's in any business are loathe to admit mistakes.

[cj]

Example of “perspective”; 'Dickenson can’t be trusted and NYRA is a bastion of intelligence…Please! :)

All most of us have ever said was the rush was a little over the top. It was shoved down our throats as some great savior of racing. The is really so little data now nobody knows what will come of the experiment. At the very least, it certainly appears the claims were vastly overblown. Certainly, much better trainers than Ian Jory have huge reservations about the supposed safety improvements. (re...Bloodhorse Article)

As far as Dickinson, it is obvious he has a huge financial incentive for the stuff to be put in as many places as possible. He gave up his spotty training career to concentrate on becoming a salesman, and like it or not, that is what he currently is. Anything he says has to be considered in that light.

[Rook]

This could very well be true when it comes to poly, but in general, I would question this conclusion. If a process goes from being predictable to being random, then >nothing< is working.

To me, Turfway is the farthest thing from random. At this meet, I have made 301 bets and am up $74k. A Pick 6 for $20k got the ball rolling but since then my profit has come from consistently winning day after day, not from huge scores. Turfway has been so predictable that I am in a mild state of shock when I have a losing day there. So to those who bitch about randomness, stop blaming the surface and start looking at other handicapping methods.

[DanG]

As far as Dickinson, it is obvious he has a huge financial incentive for the stuff to be put in as many places as possible. He gave up his spotting training career to concentrate on becoming a salesman, and like it or not, that is what he currently is. Anything he says has to be considered in that light.
Fair point; just as anything you or I say must be considered in a certain “light”.

Anyone who pretends to have a monopoly on truth or claims to lack an agenda is preparing you for a bull-spit enema.

[Rook]

It amazes me that people spend so much time bitching about polytrack when they should be directing their energy towards things that truly prevent them from making money at this game. At the top of this list should be the fight for lower takeout/higher rebates. Zero rebate companies like YouBet and TwinSpires are what's really wrong with this game.

[bettheoverlay]

As far as Dickinson is concerned, isn't he in competition with the Poly and Cushion track companies? His Tapeta, so far, is my favorite of the ASs. Golden Gate, and the brief test at the Erie PA track, are fine by me and the numbers I use. It hasn't been exposed to extreme weather yet though. I also think the Cushion at Hollywood was very fair. The Poly at DMR and KEE was awful. The Polys at TP, WO and AP are a real test for me. I tried designing a track specific Power Number(Jcapper) for TP, but so far little success.

[cj]

It amazes me that people spend so much time bitching about polytrack when they should be directing their energy towards things that truly prevent them from making money at this game. At the top of this list should be the fight for lower takeout/higher rebates. Zero rebate companies like YouBet and TwinSpires are what's really wrong with this game.

Rebates are great. But what is really wrong is the high takeouts that make rebates necessary.

[garyoz]

Well, this begs the question then....how were they able to run the first ELEVEN races on Saturday, but the 12th had to be cancelled? It makes no sense. It was cold all day long, was it not?

11th went off at 5:24. It was a minor stakes race and feature. I believe they wanted to get that race in for the mutual pool and because it was a stakes race. It was about 12 degrees and windy when the sun set (data for Florence, KY below) The 12th was a Maiden Special Weight.

SUN
Begin civil twilight 7:25 a.m.
Sunrise 7:54 a.m.
Sun transit 12:49 p.m.
Sunset 5:43 p.m.
End civil twilight 6:13 p.m.

Polytrack gets blamed for everything. It was darn cold out there.

IMHO, in terms of polytrack. I agree with Rook. If you are a one dimensional horse player (e.g., pace) you'll get killed. Requires a full arsenal of handicapping approaches.

[cj]

It always seems to come down to two false assumptions about those that don't like synthetic track surfaces:


They don't care about the safety of horses and/or jockeys
They can't figure out how to win money
Of course 99.9% of bettors care if horses or jockeys get hurt.

Of course, as with most things in the game on the betting side, those that work the hardest win, and synthetic tracks are no different.

So please, if nothing else, stop these ridiculous arguments.

[CryingForTheHorses]

They just cancelled the last race at "Polytrack" Turfway. I suppose it's because it's very, very cold out there, but they DID run almost every race today....

I did notice that there is an INCREDIBLE amount of KICKBACK coming up today at Turfway, so I'm guessing that perhaps the track surface has something to do with this last race cancellation....the jockeys probably requested respirators if management was going to press the issue.....of course, they blame the cold officially, hoping we'll conveniently forget that they were able to run the first ten races today.....

So, now we can't run artificial when it gets very hot (Hollywood had problems with heat, did they not?) We can't run artificial when it gets very wet (Santa Anita), and it's been proven many different times that we can't run artificial when it gets very cold (Turfway and Woodbine).

So, this begs the question....what was the point?

I just can't see, with all the potential hazards of these artificial surfaces, that the good outweighs the bad. Unless someone comes up with a "better way," how can other venues justify saying "count me in" when it comes to adopting these problematic alternatives to all natural dirt?

Paul Moran was dead on in his latest blog about this subject. It's a good thing NYRA is in financial trouble, or we may have seen the installation of these troublesome surfaces here in NY, which would have truly sucked.


Geeze with all these new poly tracks makes me wonder who is going to come up with Poly paddocks on the farms.This is a passing fad...If the good lord had wanted horses to run on Poly He would have invented it.

[the little guy]

Example of “perspective”; 'Dickenson can’t be trusted and NYRA is a bastion of intelligence…Please! :)

You once backtracked when I called you out for your nonsensical and unfair bashing. But, as soon as you saw fit to do it again, you jumped right back in the pool. Typical and unsurprising.

I never said " Dickinson can't be trusted " nor would I. In fact, in my very limited dealings with him I found him extremely likeable. However, that doesn't change the truth about what I wrote. He profits greatly from synthetic surfaces and if you don't know this maybe you should research it ( I know, you know everything, so I'm sure you won't have to waste your oh so valuable time on Google ). I believe it is an extremely important that when Michael Dickinson claims that every track will be and should be synthetic to point out the many millions of dollars that such a vision will put directly in his pocket. If you feel this is a moot point, and care to tell us why, then fine. But misquoting me in your usual snide manner doesn't strengthen your argument.

As for NYRA being a supposed " bastion of intelligence. " Well, once again, you said it, not me. But, considering the intelligence of men like Steve Duncker and Jim Heffernan, you may have a point. However, next time you decide to take a cheap shot against me, and considering your pps there will certainly be one, why not try to actually quote what I say and deal with it accurately. Then again, lying about what I say is your MO.

[DanG]

You once backtracked when I called you out for your nonsensical and unfair bashing. But, as soon as you saw fit to do it again, you jumped right back in the pool. Typical and unsurprising.

I never said " Dickinson can't be trusted " nor would I. In fact, in my very limited dealings with him I found him extremely likeable. However, that doesn't change the truth about what I wrote. He profits greatly from synthetic surfaces and if you don't know this maybe you should research it ( I know, you know everything, so I'm sure you won't have to waste your oh so valuable time on Google ). I believe it is an extremely important that when Michael Dickinson claims that every track will be and should be synthetic to point out the many millions of dollars that such a vision will put directly in his pocket. If you feel this is a moot point, and care to tell us why, then fine. But misquoting me in your usual snide manner doesn't strengthen your argument.

As for NYRA being a supposed " bastion of intelligence. " Well, once again, you said it, not me. But, considering the intelligence of men like Steve Duncker and Jim Heffernan, you may have a point. However, next time you decide to take a cheap shot against me, and considering your pps there will certainly be one, why not try to actually quote what I say and deal with it accurately. Then again, lying about what I say is your MO.
For the record…I NEVER “backtracked” for calling you out and will say so to your face this August. It’s up to you to deny it in front of three people who heard the same moronic quotes.

The entire thread was begun with hyperbole imo, so that’s why both ends of this statement where embellished just as you’ll notice there were no “quotations” around it.

If you want to make this personal, fine with me…but face to face is far more enjoyable. :ThmbUp:

[the little guy]

For the record…I NEVER “backtracked” for calling you out and will say so to your face this August. It’s up to you to deny it in front of three people who heard the same moronic quotes.

The entire thread was begun with hyperbole imo, so that’s why both ends of this statement where embellished just as you’ll notice there were no “quotations” around it.

If you want to make this personal, fine with me…but face to face is far more enjoyable. :ThmbUp:


Dan, you already made it personal, not me. That is very clear on this board. This recent crap is just more of the same.

So now, according to you, I said things this past year that I didn't say. I look forward to discussing it with you in public next year.

[Rook]

It always seems to come down to two false assumptions about those that don't like synthetic track surfaces:


They don't care about the safety of horses and/or jockeys
They can't figure out how to win money......
So please, if nothing else, stop these ridiculous arguments.

I agree that the first argument is ridiculous but the 2nd one bears repeating whenever somebody claims that polytrack produces random results. That is an argument that I find ridiculous and needs to be corrected. I'm sorry you are sick of hearing this point, but this is the first time I have contributed to a poly thread, so I know I haven't beaten the subject to death.

It's pretty safe to assume that if a bettor has a much higher ROI on poly than dirt, he loves it, if the reverse, he hates it. If he doesn't know or doesn't care about his ROI, then he has far less at stake than those that do.

[cj]

I agree that the first argument is ridiculous but the 2nd one bears repeating whenever somebody claims that polytrack produces random results. That is an argument that I find ridiculous and needs to be corrected. I'm sorry you are sick of hearing this point, but this is the first time I have contributed to a poly thread, so I know I haven't beaten the subject to death.

It's pretty safe to assume that if a bettor has a much higher ROI on poly than dirt, he loves it, if the reverse, he hates it. If he doesn't know or doesn't care about his ROI, then he has far less at stake than those that do.

I agree. What I am saying is that I find it highly unlikely that someone skilled enough to beat the game on dirt and/or turf can't do similar on synthetic. Those that are griping about synthetics for this reason were probably already losing because they don't do the required work.

[DanG]

Dan, you already made it personal, not me. That is very clear on this board. This recent crap is just more of the same.

So now, according to you, I said things this past year that I didn't say. I look forward to discussing it with you in public next year.
Perhaps you’re right, it was me. I’ve never cared for your public persona and I’m sure that has come out in my posts. To the poor unfortunate readers of this crap I apologize, :blush: but not to you.

I too look forward to your selective memory when we meet, just name the place.

BTW: And here I thought in 2008 we would become friends :rolleyes:….”Missed by that much” :D
http://www.extrememortman.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/Maxwell%20Smart%20Get%20Smart.bmp

[the little guy]

Perhaps you’re right, it was me. I’ve never cared for your public persona and I’m sure that has come out in my posts. To the poor unfortunate readers of this crap I apologize, :blush: but not to you.

I too look forward to your selective memory when we meet, just name the place.

BTW: And here I thought in 2008 we would become friends :rolleyes:….”Missed by that much” :D



Here is what you said on this board when I made it clear that I did not say what you accused me of.....


" I do admit my memory is not what it used to be. My daughter however is 18yo and as sharp as humans get. "


Now, perhaps you are consulting with your daughter while doing this current posting, and it is she, and not you, that didn't backtrack. Who knows.....a lot of wacky stuff goes on in cyberspace. However, to me this felt like backtracking. The simple truth is you claimed I said things this past year that I didn't. Maybe you came to the seminars hoping I would do what you find offensive and were so disappointed it didn't happen that you fabricated it in your mind. Who knows.

Hey, I'm just happy you listen to anything I say publicly, and do genuinely appreciate the kind things you have said about me on this board. However, I think I am well within my rights to both point out the past agenda with me you carried into this thread and dispute your responses.

In a like manner, I look forward to you saying hello in person at the seminars. At that point, I am sure I would be more than happy to hash out any disagreements we may have. We can argue and agree to disagree. It's all good. I think it's unfortunate if someone has a big enough problem with me that they would bash me on the internet and yet avoid a possible face to face confrontation when it affords itself. Certainly it could never be my immensely imposing physical stature that would intimidate anyone.

[David-LV]

Here is what you said on this board when I made it clear that I did not say what you accused me of.....


" I do admit my memory is not what it used to be. My daughter however is 18yo and as sharp as humans get. "


Now, perhaps you are consulting with your daughter while doing this current posting, and it is she, and not you, that didn't backtrack. Who knows.....a lot of wacky stuff goes on in cyberspace. However, to me this felt like backtracking. The simple truth is you claimed I said things this past year that I didn't. Maybe you came to the seminars hoping I would do what you find offensive and were so disappointed it didn't happen that you fabricated it in your mind. Who knows.

Hey, I'm just happy you listen to anything I say publicly, and do genuinely appreciate the kind things you have said about me on this board. However, I think I am well within my rights to both point out the past agenda with me you carried into this thread and dispute your responses.

In a like manner, I look forward to you saying hello in person at the seminars. At that point, I am sure I would be more than happy to hash out any disagreements we may have. We can argue and agree to disagree. It's all good. I think it's unfortunate if someone has a big enough problem with me that they would bash me on the internet and yet avoid a possible face to face confrontation when it affords itself. Certainly it could never be my immensely imposing physical stature that would intimidate anyone.

I sure would like to come to your seminars. What is the content?

Tell me something about yourself and where and when these seminars are held.

Thank you.

_________
David

[DanG]

Here is what you said on this board when I made it clear that I did not say what you accused me of.....


" I do admit my memory is not what it used to be. My daughter however is 18yo and as sharp as humans get. "


Now, perhaps you are consulting with your daughter while doing this current posting, and it is she, and not you, that didn't backtrack. Who knows.....a lot of wacky stuff goes on in cyberspace. However, to me this felt like backtracking. The simple truth is you claimed I said things this past year that I didn't. Maybe you came to the seminars hoping I would do what you find offensive and were so disappointed it didn't happen that you fabricated it in your mind. Who knows.

Hey, I'm just happy you listen to anything I say publicly, and do genuinely appreciate the kind things you have said about me on this board. However, I think I am well within my rights to both point out the past agenda with me you carried into this thread and dispute your responses.

In a like manner, I look forward to you saying hello in person at the seminars. At that point, I am sure I would be more than happy to hash out any disagreements we may have. We can argue and agree to disagree. It's all good. I think it's unfortunate if someone has a big enough problem with me that they would bash me on the internet and yet avoid a possible face to face confrontation when it affords itself. Certainly it could never be my immensely imposing physical stature that would intimidate anyone.
Fair enough Andy;

To put this thing to bed, (at least on my end) because I think you’ll agree were both a little too far along to have a pissing match behind keyboards. (Again…My apologies for not making this a private message thing and side tracking a thread that many people have valid opinions on.)

At the hub of this nonsense is you claim to have not said the remarks and I claim you did more than once. “Bashing” to me is making up material in the attempt to discredit someone etc…these are remarks that I will take to my grave were actually said…that’s not ‘bashing in my book.

Having said that…I enjoy hearing you talk about racing because you come from an informed player’s perspective. What you bring to the table is seriously lacking in current racing media and I hope you find more outlets for your thoughts. (The YouBet series was brilliant btw) :ThmbUp: I’m not talking about ‘selections as my mind turns off when people tell me who they like, but I appreciate the fact that you go in depth and break down the process.

OK…I better stop now, because I found myself liking you a little too much and we can’t have that…now can we. :D

[the little guy]

Thanks Dan.

The Youbet series will be starting again in April. Right now we have plans for more shows than last year. I will keep you updated.

[the little guy]

I sure would like to come to your seminars. What is the content?

Tell me something about yourself and where and when these seminars are held.

Thank you.

_________
David


I feel like I'm on Match.com.

The seminars are DRF Seminars we do every day in Saratoga and are also broadcast live over the internet through drf.com. If I can find the link anyone can. I am a frequent guest.

[PaceAdvantage]

Unlike owners or jockeys who are rightfully concerned about safety, as a handicapper, the bottom line for me is not how pretty the races are run but whether I can make money on a particular surface. Of the tracks currently running, Turfway has been by far my most profitable track over the past few months, so count me in as one of its biggest supporters.:ThmbUp:Well, there was a reason I was watching and wagering at Turfway on Saturday, and it wasn't because I enjoy playing tracks I get killed at....so we can put this argument that "he's only posting that because he can't beat Turfway" garbage.

This is a discussion board, and I just thought it was appropriate to post what was on my mind at the moment. My thread had nothing to do with how hard or easy it is to handicap artificial surfaces successfully.

[PaceAdvantage]

It may be more wishful thinking for an era where pace made sense, but get used to poly tracks pace boys. With million dollar animals running and less injuries, the racing industry will continue to support poly tracks.Pace handicapping does just fine on artificial surfaces, thank you very much. That wasn't the point of this thread.

And as for million dollar animals, you think the breeding industry is going to just sit around and blindly support this while their multi-million dollar "dirt" studs start failing to produce "all-weather" runners?

Note that key phrase "ALL WEATHER," except when it gets cold, gets hot, or rains.....:rolleyes:

[Rook]

so we can put this argument that "he's only posting that because he can't beat Turfway" garbage.

This is a discussion board, and I just thought it was appropriate to post what was on my mind at the moment.

I'm glad that you did. It has stimulated a lot of conversation. My motivation in jumping in is that I am currently in love with Turfway no matter how much kickback is going on, so I feel a need to defend a place that has treated me so well. I understand why the jockeys would not like the conditions but I sure do because if every track had its problems, I would be far wealthier.

[shanta]

On a MUCH smaller scale than Rook I love Turfway.

One of the only day tracks I have been making money on consistently since the meet opened. Haven't bet a horse less than 6 or 7/1 there since the meet opened. Playing strictly price and at a track like this (all the poly's to be honest) the opportunities are there every day to score.

Yes I use pace and things are just fine there. For betting ham and egg money been making some real dough. This week's betting records there. Didn't play yesterday as I was running a contest on a buddies website

1/16:
Turfway:

2) tp2 - 6w 5- $100.20
3) tp3 - 6w 6 -
4) tp4 - 3w 8,9-
5) tp5 - 3w 8,9- $115.20
6) tp6 - 6w 4 -
7) tp8 - 6w 2 -
8) tp9 - 3w 5,10-
Bet = 42.00 Ret = 215.40 + 173.40


1/17:
Turfway:
1) 6w 6 -
2) - 3w 4,10 -
3) 6w 3 - $100.80
4) 8,9,5 - 3w 8,5 -
5) 8,1,6 - 6w 6 -
6) 5** 6,9,7 - 3w 7,9 -
8) 3,5,2 - 6w 5 -
9) 11,8,9,5 - 6w 9 - $58.20
Bet = 48.00 Ret = 159.00 + 111.00

1/18:
Turfway: ok scr
1) 4,6,8 - 6w 4
2) 2,6,7,9 - 3w 2,7 - $23.10
3) 2,4,5,6 - 6w 4
4) 5,6,7 - 6w 6
5) 1,2,5,7 - 6w 1
6) 1,3,4 - 6w 3
7) 2,4,5 - 6w 5
8) 3,5,6,8 -6w 5
9) 2,4,5 -3w 2,5
10)1,3,6,7 -6w 6 - $ 57.60
11)4,6,12 -3w 4,12
Bet = 66.00 Ret = 80.70 + 14.70

[David-LV]

On a MUCH smaller scale than Rook I love Turfway.

One of the only day tracks I have been making money on consistently since the meet opened. Haven't bet a horse less than 6 or 7/1 there since the meet opened. Playing strictly price and at a track like this (all the poly's to be honest) the opportunities are there every day to score.

Yes I use pace and things are just fine there. For betting ham and egg money been making some real dough. This week's betting records there. Didn't play yesterday as I was running a contest on a buddies website
__________________________________________________ _
__________________________________________________ _

Why is this thread going off topic again ? :confused:

We are talking about synthetic surfaces here not how good you are doing.

As you can see Turfway's All Weather surface is closed today because of the weather. :confused:

_________
David

[Rook]

Why is this thread going off topic again ? :confused:

We are talking about synthetic surfaces here not how good you are doing.

As you can see Turfway's All Weather surface is closed today because of the weather. :confused:


It's not off topic. One of the most often heard complaints about Polytrack is that it produces random results. Shanta and I are arguing that it is not the case. It is a bummer that TP is not running today but DrunkenHorseplayer did us a service by reminding us that TP routinely used cancel in January.

[GlenninOhio]

Why is this thread going off topic again ? :confused:

We are talking about synthetic surfaces here not how good you are doing.

As you can see Turfway's All Weather surface is closed today because of the weather. :confused:

_________
David

Temp is currently 17 degrees, 9 with wind chill.

I was told today by someone pretty unimpeachable that it was the riders who refused to go out for the 12th last night.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was told today by someone pretty unimpeachable that it was the riders who refused to go out for the 12th last night.Like I said, I don't blame them....that kickback was unreal....

[Bruddah]

[QUOTE=DanG]Perhaps you’re right, it was me. I’ve never cared for your public persona and I’m sure that has come out in my posts. To the poor unfortunate readers of this crap I apologize, :blush: but not to you.

I too look forward to your selective memory when we meet, just name the place.

BTW: And here I thought in 2008 we would become friends :rolleyes:….”Missed by that much” :D



To paraphrase a couple of well known Characters.

Rodney King, Can't we all just get along here? And Struther Martin, What I think we have here, is failure to Communicate.

Pass me another boiled egg. (buuuurrrp!) :lol:

Seriously, if it weren't for opinionated horse players, this would be such a peaceful world. :lol:

[Tom]

Originally Posted by David-LV
Why is this thread going off topic again ? images/UBGX/E19.gif

Off topic or off your agenda?

[Capper Al]

The big stumbling block in removing artificial surfaces IF it is determined that they are unsafe will be the "powers that be" will have to admit that a mistake was made (which they approved) and CEO's in any business are loathe to admit mistakes.
I agree CJ if it is concluded to be a mistake it would be slow to reverse. I'm not seeing it as a problem to the horses and jockeys.

[shanta]

Off topic or off your agenda?

Exactly.

Poly is not a passing fad. It's here to stay. Personally I like them. I think over time the Tapeta version will prove itself the best of the lot.

There we go. Back on "topic" :jump:

[Capper Al]

Pace handicapping does just fine on artificial surfaces, thank you very much. That wasn't the point of this thread.

And as for million dollar animals, you think the breeding industry is going to just sit around and blindly support this while their multi-million dollar "dirt" studs start failing to produce "all-weather" runners?

Note that key phrase "ALL WEATHER," except when it gets cold, gets hot, or rains.....:rolleyes:

Modelling still does fine with pace, but the universal bias of early speed isn't there anymore. There might be some wishful thinking going on here back to the good old days of dirt and the predominance of early pace.

[Valuist]

I don't care if I was up 7 million at Turfway, synthetic racing is far more random than dirt, and its boring as hell to watch. I've done ok there and Keeneland; not so good at other synth tracks (Arlington & Del Mar).

An overlooked factor is that it is even ruining dirt meets. I will NOT bet the fall Churchill meet because its a bunch of 2YO races where the horses have either been running at Kee, Arlington or Turfway and its complete guesswork whether the carpeting form will translate to real dirt.

[David-LV]

Off topic or off your agenda?

I don't have an agenda, I have an opinion just like you, genius.

I guess when you don't agree with someone else's opinion then you think that that person has an agenda.

Grow up.

___________
David

[bigmack]

Off topic or off your agenda?
Exactly. If it weren't for synthetics he'd have 3 posts around here. 90% outside the 3 have speculated, ruminated and conjectured health effects and the overall demise of the industry. 1/2 full or 1/2 empty is not his option. Even the glass has left the building.

[David-LV]

Bigmack,

Welcome back, sure missed you. I didn't know that we were keeping score on how many or what we post. Let me know What the prize structure is.

Happy New Year.:)

________
David

[bigmack]

Bigmack,
Let me know What the prize structure is.
You've already won in a landslide

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/15-2.jpg

[Rook]

I don't care if I was up 7 million at Turfway, synthetic racing is far more random than dirt, and its boring as hell to watch.


You must be pretty wealthy to not get excited by $7 million. As for me, no other track currently comes close to the excitement level I feel when the horses are at the starting gate. Winning has a way of distracting you from other issues. If your favourite baseball team won the World Series, would you be complaining that it was boring because they did it on Astro-Turf?

[RXB]

I don't find the results any more random than dirt. Faves are winning around their expected %. And as far as "boredom" goes, I think that most people prefer races where backrunners can get up to win, rather than the uncontested procession that occurs so often in dirt races.

My artificial track ROI is a bit better than on dirt, but not by much.

[46zilzal]

Modelling still does fine with pace, but the universal bias of early speed isn't there anymore. There might be some wishful thinking going on here back to the good old days of dirt and the predominance of early pace.
SO?

[njcurveball]

Modelling still does fine with pace, but the universal bias of early speed isn't there anymore.

Do you realize you just pointed to the reason why people on here are saying it is MORE profitable? :ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

SO?


You're right. You just use a track profiler program. So, so what.

[Tom]

I don't have an agenda, I have an opinion just like you, genius.

I guess when you don't agree with someone else's opinion then you think that that person has an agenda.

Grow up.

___________
David

Genius?
OK Einstein....when you keep posting this same old crap on two boards, then make fun of a jock getting hurt, blaming it on poly, I call it an agenda. Methinks your trousers are still tad too big. But that's just my opinon. :lol:

[Capper Al]

Do you realize you just pointed to the reason why people on here are saying it is MORE profitable? :ThmbUp:

It might be with a track profile. Pace can hit some shots.

[garyoz]

__________________________________________________ _

Why is this thread going off topic again ? :confused:

We are talking about synthetic surfaces here not how good you are doing.

As you can see Turfway's All Weather surface is closed today because of the weather. :confused:

_________
David

It was below 15 degrees. Most tracks close when it is that cold (e.g., MNR tonight). Has nothing to do with the track surface.

[Tom]

http://www.equibase.com/products/2007cancellations.cfm

See how many dirt and how many poly races were lost for a full year.

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.equibase.com/products/2007cancellations.cfm

See how many dirt and how many poly races were lost for a full year.As a percentage of all surfaces in use, how does that work out?

[Southieboy]

And more rain expected at SA:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/tenday/USCA0040?from=36hr_topnav_vacation

[46zilzal]

It might be with a track profile. Pace can hit some shots.
You and I should one day go head to head.

Pace analysis would destroy you.

[Tom]

As a percentage of all surfaces in use, how does that work out?

I didn't figure it out, but I will. Got too late last night.

[Capper Al]

You and I should one day go head to head.

Pace analysis would destroy you.
When I'm ready, I'll let you know. I do use pace also within my comprehensive mix. Currently, I am transforming my spreadsheets into C++ programs. This will take a while. My system's top picks have done pretty well here at PA, not my wagers. That's another story. I believe the system top pick won 6 out 9 with one second. At that rate, you would need to win them all to destroy me.

[46zilzal]

PACE analysis, not yours truly, would be the Grim Reaper.

Then again capping is just half the challenge.

[rokitman]

Crush...kill...destroy.

Reminded me of my childhood. Thanks :)

[Capper Al]

PACE analysis, not yours truly, would be the Grim Reaper.

Then again capping is just half the challenge.
Any challenge would be a $2.00 flat bet to win on one horse per race. The only exotic that I would consider, in addition to the win wager, is a 3 horse exacta box. The exacta would be iffy. I may not go for it.

[46zilzal]

There is no ONE way to bet after figuring out how a race runs. Each race provides it's own distinct way of profiting.

[Capper Al]

There is no ONE way to bet after figuring out how a race runs. Each race provides it's own distinct way of profiting.

You asked for the duel, so I get the choice of weapons. It will be $12 win bet and $1 3 horse exacta box when I'm ready.

$12 win
$6 exacta box $1 x 6 combinations
$18 total per race on fast and firm tracks.

[46zilzal]

You asked for the duel, so I get the choice of weapons. It will be $12 win bet and $1 3 horse exacta box when I'm ready.

$12 win
$6 exacta box $1 x 6 combinations
$18 total per race on fast and firm tracks.
Let me repeat myself.
There is no ONE way to bet after figuring out how a race runs. Each race provides it's own distinct way of profiting.

I play any track surface that is predictive.

[PaceAdvantage]

How about both you rubes get back on topic....or at least take your piss match private or to a different thread.

[46zilzal]

How about both you rubes get back on topic....or at least take your piss match private or to a different thread.
Noted

[Capper Al]

How about both you rubes get back on topic....or at least take your piss match private or to a different thread.

No problem.

[robert99]

I don't find the results any more random than dirt. Faves are winning around their expected %. And as far as "boredom" goes, I think that most people prefer races where backrunners can get up to win, rather than the uncontested procession that occurs so often in dirt races.

My artificial track ROI is a bit better than on dirt, but not by much.

RXB,

For favourites, that is same as in UK.
Yesterday's 7 race meeting at Wolverhampton polytrack gave the following typical results for 1 & 2:

15/2 5/1jfav
12/1 9/4f
9/4f 9/4 jf
2/1 15/8f
2/1f 5/2
11/4 7/4f
12/1 9/1

http://www.attheraces.com/results.asp?date=20/01/2008&ref=FastFixtures&nav=results#FR26650

to see those races.

[Track Collector]

It's a zero sum game. If something isn't working, then by definition, something else is.

Not necessarily so. Something else may work better than it used to, but still be unprofitable and unworthy of play. As an example:
On Dirt: Factor A = 13% profit --> On Synthetic: Factor A = 10% loss
Factor B = 20% loss --> Factor B = 12% loss
Factor C = 12% loss --> Factor C = 8% loss
Factor D = 10% loss --> Factor D = 7% loss
Factor E = 8% loss --> Factor E = 6% loss
Factor F = 13% loss --> Factor F = 7% loss
The 23% loss of A was distributed to gains for B thru F.

The player still must overcome the huge track takes before he/she can become profitable. The point of my response is to say that while finding new successful factors/patterns may be possible, they are not guaranteed. Of course, rebates could make the difference! :)

[Track Collector]

To me, Turfway is the farthest thing from random. At this meet, I have made 301 bets and am up $74k. A Pick 6 for $20k got the ball rolling but since then my profit has come from consistently winning day after day, not from huge scores. Turfway has been so predictable that I am in a mild state of shock when I have a losing day there. So to those who bitch about randomness, stop blaming the surface and start looking at other handicapping methods.

Rook, I'm glad to hear someone is having success at one of the synthetic surface tracks.

Your profit total is impressive. As an experienced and serious handicapper, I'm sure you will agree that if you are not playing other synthetic tracks with the same selection process/criteria used for TP, then your continued results at this profit level are at risk due to sample size. (Hopefully your excellent results will continue for a long time!) Validation of investment strategy improves with sample size, so I would be interested to know if you tried other synthetic surface tracks with the TP strategies and what were your results? As for me personally, I have not been very successful when I develop a specific (selection) strategy for a particular track. My best results have been achieved with a specific (selection) strategy applied to a multiple track set.

[Rook]

As an experienced and serious handicapper, I'm sure you will agree that if you are not playing other synthetic tracks with the same selection process/criteria used for TP, then your continued results at this profit level are at risk due to sample size.
Of course I agree. I know that this Turfway ROI is not sustainable over the long haul. That being said, I have learned from experience that if I do find a track where I can dominate for a couple of months, there is a very good chance that it will show a profit the following year. Turfway has joined Finger Lakes, Emerald, Hawthorne and Hoosier as tracks on my permanent playlist.


Validation of investment strategy improves with sample size, so I would be interested to know if you tried other synthetic surface tracks with the TP strategies and what were your results?

One of the features of Premier Turf Club that I love is that I can get a definitive answer to this question with a click of a few buttons. I've bet 30 tracks through PTC and the only other synthetic is Presque Isle where I made 71 bets for a profit of $10,391.

Among the anti-rebate tracks (which are of dwindling importance to me), Woodbine has been a little worse and Arlington was a disaster this year. I've never done well with California tracks, so until they start paying rebates, I doubt I will build up much of a sample size there.


As for me personally, I have not been very successful when I develop a specific (selection) strategy for a particular track. My best results have been achieved with a specific (selection) strategy applied to a multiple track set.
I am on the same page as you here. Generally, the only individual track adjustments I make are noting which places to give more emphasis to early speed, first time starters and huge longshots on the bottom half of exotics.

[Valuist]

I don't find the results any more random than dirt. Faves are winning around their expected %. And as far as "boredom" goes, I think that most people prefer races where backrunners can get up to win, rather than the uncontested procession that occurs so often in dirt races.

My artificial track ROI is a bit better than on dirt, but not by much.

What I don't like is an endless procession of bunched fields and paceless races where speed and the inside have a small at best chance.

Everyone wants to point to the percentage of winning favorites as the end-all for form. What it doesn't say is the percentage of implausible longshots who do win. I wouldn't be surprised to see sythetic tracks eventually produce 40-42% winning favorites with 20-1 and up taking the lion's share of the balance. Unfortunately, the 5-1 to 12-1 shots that many players find as value may disappear.

[bigmack]

One of the features of Premier Turf Club that I love is that I can get a definitive answer to this question with a click of a few buttons. I've bet 30 tracks through PTC and the only other synthetic is Presque Isle where I made 71 bets for a profit of $10,391.
TP has been a favorable meet thusfar in my camp as well, primarily due to the depth of my tickets. Lb4lb, synthetics offer mutual payouts that are on average, significantly higher than earth surfs, which "green lights" deeper tickets. It's not something addressed around these parts, though I suspect when people grow tired of whining they'll stagger a path towards profitablility through the abandonment of their obstinate habits.

I'd welcome you to retrospectively review your play from AP and judge its level of depth and how it affected your financial outcome.

I'm not a big fan of synthetic surfaces, but I like going deep when the nets come up aplenty.

[Rook]

I'd welcome you to retrospectively review your play from AP and judge its level of depth and how it affected your financial outcome.

BigMack, you bring up an excellent point. The main reason that I am not able to go deep with my AP super tickets is that at that track I do not have the option of betting 10 cent supers. The offshores don't offer them, the jackasses at Woodbine don't, the lowlifes at YouBet & TwinSpires reject Canadians and Elite never gave in to my frequent requests.

Therefore, until PTC came along I was at a huge disadvantage. Like all players, I have a comfort zone with my bets and at around $600 dollars, I start to feel really miserable about my losses. At AP, when I had 800+ combos that I liked, I would pare the ticket size down and of course, the horses that didn't make the cut came in often enough to really sour me on the place. In contrast, when I have 2000 combos at TP, I don't have to make any sacrifices, I simply bet a 40 cent super.

[bigmack]

BigMack, you bring up an excellent point. The main reason that I am not able to go deep with my AP super tickets is that at that track I do not have the option of betting 10 cent supers. The offshores don't offer them, the jackasses at Woodbine don't, the lowlifes at YouBet & TwinSpires reject Canadians and Elite never gave in to my frequent requests.
Point well taken and as I dwell in California (locked from PTCVille) I envy PTC clients for a variety of reasons and will add to my list, your ability to collate wagers/tracks. I do the same though it's cumbersome. (actually my nephew does it, so he finds it so)

As I am afforded rebates from dissimilar outlets, I recognize the quandary of who accepts what wagers and at what level. Entering in wagers has become my nemesis and I've taken on help to facilitate.

I encourage us both to maintain some level of secrecy regarding the "depth" concept in synthetics and trust you'll abide. :rolleyes:

All the best.

[RXB]

What I don't like is an endless procession of bunched fields and paceless races where speed and the inside have a small at best chance.

Everyone wants to point to the percentage of winning favorites as the end-all for form. What it doesn't say is the percentage of implausible longshots who do win. I wouldn't be surprised to see sythetic tracks eventually produce 40-42% winning favorites with 20-1 and up taking the lion's share of the balance. Unfortunately, the 5-1 to 12-1 shots that many players find as value may disappear.

Grass races are often bunched and (relatively, if you judge everything by dirt standards) paceless, even more than artificial surfaces. Should we get rid of grass courses, too?

I'd be willing to bet that the ROI at each odds level will be nearly identical on artificial surfaces as it is on dirt and grass. And as far as implausible longshots go, well, think of horses that show nothing on dirt and then switch to grass and win like champs. It's a new surface and some horses will like it better than others. But for the most part, I don't see anything out of the ordinary.

Also, speed does not have "little chance" on artificial surfaces-- except maybe at Kee. It just doesn't dominate like it does on dirt, especially in routes. Personally, I find that to be a welcome change, and in the long run I think it's good for the game-- even if it removes some easy early pace plays in the process.

[alysheba88]

Its bad enough that racing management and their shills in the media blame the horseplayer all the time, but fans do the same as well. The whole "if you dont like it, its because you are losing money" nonsense

[RXB]

I'm not blaming anybody for anything, but I guess you can interpret things however you want.

[alysheba88]

I'm not blaming anybody for anything, but I guess you can interpret things however you want.

Was not talking about you

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

What I don't like is an endless procession of bunched fields and paceless races where speed and the inside have a small at best chance.

Everyone wants to point to the percentage of winning favorites as the end-all for form. What it doesn't say is the percentage of implausible longshots who do win. I wouldn't be surprised to see sythetic tracks eventually produce 40-42% winning favorites with 20-1 and up taking the lion's share of the balance. Unfortunately, the 5-1 to 12-1 shots that many players find as value may disappear.

40-42% winning favorites? Not a chance in hell.

[Investorater]

Hi Horseplayer Friend's, I believe this (my first post) to be on topic.I can't know if artificial surfaces are a passing fad or not and really don't care one way or the other.Anyway,I find it very interesting that Mr. Jess Jackson announced that Curlin would race into 2008.(Curlin sure deserves Horse of the Year.Street Sense was my Derby pick)Is this the start of a major trend? We know that champion's are retired for breeding purposes.The Horse is at the top of it's game so why risk losing any more races with the Star. But now with the advent of artificial surfaces the connection's cannot know how his crop would perform on these surfaces therefore the smart thing for owner's to do NOW would be to try and earn money from both purse's and stud fee's later down the road.Champion vs.Champion,maybe into their 6 year old season,now that would be an excellent trend and should make some great races for investment's Hell, we might even beat the first two choices. Best of Luck. LJM

[46zilzal]

These surfaces are trying to "cure" the bigger problem: the increasing fragility of the thoroughbred. The selective breeding for ever increasing speed and earlier development (the two go hand in hand) will be the downfall of the breed.

The breeder's need to get together and look at LONG term goals. Breed back to stamina, provide graded stakes for REAL stamina (over 1 3/4 miles) to understand the genetic source of that side of the coin.

[Bobzilla]

46, I would agree.

The weakening of the breed is, in large part, a direct result of the breeders responding to the demand side of the market, that being for ridiculously early development and early demonstrations of brilliant times and figures. A horses reputation can be blown way out of proportion in such circumstances, even before it's been truly tested or had to overcome any kind of racing adversity. To truly get the quick ROI needed, it's best to retire the animal at 2 before it's rep can be blemished, publically state how dissapointing it is he can't continue but we need to do what's right by him, and get his untested chestnut butt into the breeding shed as early as possible so we can mass prouce more weak boned fragile thoroughbreds.

When I first observed how quickly tracks were planning on converting over to synthetics, I was surprised at how quiescent the breeding industry was being. I would have expected more agitation. But over time I realized that they are very much a part of the decision to convert over, and as you said, probably with the hopes of altering the mindset of those who compose the demand side of their market and with the end result being demand for horses bred more towards the classic end of the spectrum.

[alysheba88]

Drugs are destroying the breed more than anything else. Horses that shouldnt be running or juiced up and then pass on their infirmities to their offspring

[46zilzal]

Drugs are destroying the breed more than anything else. Horses that shouldn't be running or juiced up and then pass on their infirmities to their offspring
Part of the puzzle but breeding for speed is a big part of it too.

Bleeders are the big ones. I surveyed a few random cards at Woodbine, Anita and Gulfstream and in each case over 95% of the horses were on furosemide. There cannot be that many bleeders or the breed is truly in trouble. Just like "As your doctor" in human medicine, the use of diuretics in all horses is a fad not a treatment.

[jma]

Part of the puzzle but breeding for speed is a big part of it too.

Bleeders are the big ones. I surveyed a few random cards at Woodbine, Anita and Gulfstream and in each case over 95% of the horses were on furosemide. There cannot be that many bleeders or the breed is truly in trouble. Just like "As your doctor" in human medicine, the use of diuretics in all horses is a fad not a treatment.

I agree with this. As far as drugs, it's a chicken-or-the-egg thing. Drugs enable horses to run that shouldn't, so those horses are then bred, which means more drugs. Still, drugs are trying to correct the problems that the bad breeding caused in the first place, so I'd say the breeding of horses that shouldn't be bred is the direct reason.

[cnollfan]

Its bad enough that racing management and their shills in the media blame the horseplayer all the time, but fans do the same as well. The whole "if you dont like it, its because you are losing money" nonsense

You could have been talking about me and if so, I apologize. I can see your point. I despise Magna, but I still bet on Gulfstream and Santa Anita and am happy when I win there.

I disagree with those who say that the synthetics are random and therefore boring. There is solid statistical evidence that they are not random. I believe those who see randomness in the results are using handicapping factors that don't work well on synthetics, and are then blaming the results rather than their methods. This is a separate issue from the aesthetics of racing and handicapping on synthetics.

[Valuist]

40-42% winning favorites? Not a chance in hell.

Those numbers have already happened before.

[Valuist]

You could have been talking about me and if so, I apologize. I can see your point. I despise Magna, but I still bet on Gulfstream and Santa Anita and am happy when I win there.

I disagree with those who say that the synthetics are random and therefore boring. There is solid statistical evidence that they are not random. I believe those who see randomness in the results are using handicapping factors that don't work well on synthetics, and are then blaming the results rather than their methods. This is a separate issue from the aesthetics of racing and handicapping on synthetics.

I had a nice win bet on Dominican in the Blue Grass this past year and it was arguably the most boring Grade 1 I've ever seen. Horses just crawling until the far turn. Maybe the Euros like that style of racing but I don't know too many Americans who like it.

Somebody else mentioned that grass racing often has bunched fields (I would say that's true in New York, but definitely not everywhere else) so why don't we get rid of that? Completely different. First of all, most tracks rarely run more than 3 grass races a day while tracks like Turfway will run as many as 12 races over their track on a Saturday. If I had to watch 12 slow paced grass races a day at one track, I'd get tired of watching them also. I actually like grass racing very much.....but 2 surfaces is plenty, IMO.

[46zilzal]

Nafzger called last year's Blue Grass the stupidest grade one race ever run.

That, from a very good trainer, says a lot.

[JustRalph]

Nafzger called last year's Blue Grass the stupidest grade one race ever run.

That, from a very good trainer, says a lot.

Wow! I forgot how bad it really was.......check out the fractions..... looked like a two mile turf event

rdh9nCB6--s

[cnollfan]

The Dominican Blue Grass is the poster child for all who hate synthetics. I agree that it was a bizarre race that had little to do with the horses' relative abilities. But it wasn't any more bizarre than the previous year, when ex-claimer Sinister Minister won by the length of the toteboard before going 0-fer for the rest of his career despite many tries, several in non-stakes company.

[46zilzal]

The Dominican Blue Grass is the poster child for all who hate synthetics. I agree that it was a bizarre race that had little to do with the horses' relative abilities. But it wasn't any more bizarre than the previous year, when ex-claimer Sinister Minister won by the length of the toteboard before going 0-fer for the rest of his career despite many tries, several in non-stakes company.
No that was the poster horse for bias. That was in the normal range of that course and made for a very easy throw out two weeks later. Same for Bellamy Road.

[cj]

No that was the poster horse for bias. That was in the normal range of that course and made for a very easy throw out two weeks later. Same for Bellamy Road.

Bellamy Road was a VERY good horse and showed it in the Travers if you didn't believe his Wood. His Derby was also a very impressive race if you know anything at all about how that race was run.

[njcurveball]

very easy throw out two weeks later. Same for Bellamy Road.

Yes I seam to remember the same logic given for War Emblem, Charismatic, and others.

They are ALL EASY throwouts AFTER the race. :ThmbUp:

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Those numbers have already happened before.

Where and when? I'm assuming that you're dealing with a very small sample.

[46zilzal]

Yes I seam to remember the same logic given for War Emblem, Charismatic, and others.

They are ALL EASY throw outs AFTER the race.

Hardly Sinister Minister's % median was close to 69, not even close to last at 10 furlongs.

Bellamy Road, the same trend: % median out of range.

[46zilzal]

Charismatic, right in the middle of the necessary 67.2-67.6 range, suggested 10 furlongs was a distinct possibility.

[46zilzal]

This one screamed Positional Front runner in the right range for 10 furlongs plus he was going to be alone on the lead with no pressure. Improving with each start to boot.

[46zilzal]

Bellamy Road was a VERY good horse and showed it in the Travers if you didn't believe his Wood. His Derby was also a very impressive race if you know anything at all about how that race was run.
I never said he was a bad horse. He was not mature enough in May to get 10 furlongs. That's it and joins Holy Bull and Chief's Crown in that regard.

As shown above, his style PROJECTED that 10 furlongs was too long. How the race was run: prompted, bid , hung...... reflected DISTANCE limitations that he matured out of later in the summer.

[cj]

Getting hung wide from the extreme outside with a blistering pace probably had a little more to do with it than any supposed distance limitations.

[46zilzal]

Funny Cide? He was right there in range.

Bellamy's STYLE was the bugaboo.

[46zilzal]

Empire Maker was on the high side.

[46zilzal]

Fu Peg right there as well.

[46zilzal]

Giacomo was heading the same direction: distances got longer, the % median got slightly lower right up to the big dance.

[njcurveball]

Congrats on all of your hits. I guess the Derby has bought you many new cars and new houses!

Congrats on all your success! :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

Congrats on all of your hits. I guess the Derby has bought you many new cars and new houses!

Congrats on all your success!
I missed Giacomo and Barbaro (the positional front runner which did not fall into the ESP classifications and required a new one) but others in the Sartin arena had the former one.


I don't wager enough to glean that kind of profit.

This common thread was always there.

[njcurveball]

This common thread was always there.


It sure is! I get letters from John Piesen and Mike Warren explaining how they had all the past winners as well. :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

It sure is! I get letters from John Piesen and Mike Warren explaining how they had all the past winners as well.
The common thread of % median. There is never ONE horse with the requirement but one can eliminate many that fall outside the range.

Mike Warren played basketball when I was at UCLA. He was good.

[Spectacular Sid]

NYRA ... way too smart.


Please, then, Little Guy, explain Jan Rushton.

[classhandicapper]

The big stumbling block in removing artificial surfaces IF it is determined that they are unsafe will be the "powers that be" will have to admit that a mistake was made (which they approved) and CEO's in any business are loathe to admit mistakes.

100% Correct!

[GaryG]

You see this in business as well. Some CEO screws up hopelessly and costs the company millions but instead of cutting the losses they keep trying to make it work. They they are really in the soup and the CEO will have to be fired to save what face the company has left. And the stockholders are screaming....and jumping off bridges.

[tleusin]

I understand Turfway being canceled due to extreme cold. Someone please explain how a major track has to cancel days to rain. Have we not seen cards run in monsoons? I have seen Mnt when I thought the horses would have been better served doing the backstroke. Did you see FG today? Santa Anita is supposed to host the Breeders Cup this year. Does this not worry anyone else?

As far as the future of syn, wait to see what the NYRA does. Which ever direction that rudderless ship goes, the rest will go the other.

[Tom]

We had better get used to poly - I just heard on the radio that we are losing our soil! We might be all out of it in 10 years!

http://soilerosion.net/

[garyoz]

Must have been listening to NPR.