Good ROI

[csmith]

What would you consider a "GOOD" ROI from a public handicapper ( Tout ) with 1000's of races in his database ?

[shanta]

Losing about 1/2 the track take

.92

[csmith]

What would you consider a "GOOD" ROI from a public handicapper ( Tout ) with 1000's of races in his database ?

Thanks Shanta. I forgot to mention I am basing this on flat bets to win using the top selection

[shanta]

Thanks Shanta. I forgot to mention I am basing this on flat bets to win using the top selection

Was just a guess Cliff using a bit of common sense. Others with far more knowledge will give you a better "feel" :)

[njcurveball]

Thanks Shanta. I forgot to mention I am basing this on flat bets to win using the top selection

If you can select a few races from the card, than break even is doing good without knowing any race day information.

If you have to select EVERY race and you are stuck with short odds horse than I agree with Richie than losing 8 cents on the dollar is considered good.


Jim

[Cratos]

What would you consider a "GOOD" ROI from a public handicapper ( Tout ) with 1000's of races in his database ?

Applying a ROI to a public handicapper (PH) is not fair in my opinion because most PHs handicap and publish their selections long before the race is run and in addition they don’t have the flexibility of last minute changes if conditions change (e.g. weather)

Therefore I look at PHs based on percentage of winners and percent in the money as oppose to ROI.

[Robert Fischer]

would have to actually see the data ... and then the answer would be right there

I would take a wild guess and say that it shouldn't be a whole lot worse than the ROI for the morning line favorite in those same races.
- IF the Public Capper makes the morning line for that track it should be VERY close! :D

[Steve 'StatMan']

I agree with the all the above. The more into the take you can get, the better, however, for public selectors, win percentage is quite important. Need to have frequent enough winners to keep the fan interested.

While a break-even ROI at 20% wins for a normal handicapper shows darn good talent, the public selector needs to hit races often enough to keep the fan interested in the races and in the selector's product, regardless of the ROI. After not winning the first 8 races, the selector could still hit the late double, but by Race 9 the fans may have gone home, maybe grumpy or broke, or given up on the selections & started pounding heavy faves, playing the tote or someone else's picks by then.

Having to pick the whole card, with no separation between races you might actually like or dislike defintely throws some wrinkles into totals and ROIs, although the fans pretty much bet whatever style the feel like, and can do some pretty strange things, regardless of what one puts on the paper. So a selector's win percentage and ROI are one thing, but the customer's results are something mostly up to how they use it and they style of betting (or their lack of betting style and misuse of it.) If one leads them in a successful direction often enough, they're often thrilled enough to keep using the product. Not the true ideal, of course, but it is the nature of the business.

[csmith]

If you can select a few races from the card, than break even is doing good without knowing any race day information.

If you have to select EVERY race and you are stuck with short odds horse than I agree with Richie than losing 8 cents on the dollar is considered good.


Jim

Thanks for the opinion Jim

[csmith]

Applying a ROI to a public handicapper (PH) is not fair in my opinion because most PHs handicap and publish their selections long before the race is run and in addition they don’t have the flexibility of last minute changes if conditions change (e.g. weather)

Therefore I look at PHs based on percentage of winners and percent in the money as oppose to ROI.

Thanks Crato, I agree with the percentage of winners being very important.

[csmith]

would have to actually see the data ... and then the answer would be right there

I would take a wild guess and say that it shouldn't be a whole lot worse than the ROI for the morning line favorite in those same races.
- IF the Public Capper makes the morning line for that track it should be VERY close! :D

I was thinking more along the line of someone selling information, as I do. Thanks

[csmith]

I agree with the all the above. The more into the take you can get, the better, however, for public selectors, win percentage is quite important. Need to have frequent enough winners to keep the fan interested.

While a break-even ROI at 20% wins for a normal handicapper shows darn good talent, the public selector needs to hit races often enough to keep the fan interested in the races and in the selector's product, regardless of the ROI. After not winning the first 8 races, the selector could still hit the late double, but by Race 9 the fans may have gone home, maybe grumpy or broke, or given up on the selections & started pounding heavy faves, playing the tote or someone else's picks by then.

Having to pick the whole card, with no separation between races you might actually like or dislike defintely throws some wrinkles into totals and ROIs, although the fans pretty much bet whatever style the feel like, and can do some pretty strange things, regardless of what one puts on the paper. So a selector's win percentage and ROI are one thing, but the customer's results are something mostly up to how they use it and they style of betting (or their lack of betting style and misuse of it.) If one leads them in a successful direction often enough, they're often thrilled enough to keep using the product. Not the true ideal, of course, but it is the nature of the business.

This is exactly what I was telling PA in a post I made a few weeks ago. I sell tip sheets and have been doing so for about 20 years on some tracks. My point to PA was if the customers keep coming back that is quite a testimony as to how well you perform.
Thanks

[PaceAdvantage]

This is exactly what I was telling PA in a post I made a few weeks ago. I sell tip sheets and have been doing so for about 20 years on some tracks. My point to PA was if the customers keep coming back that is quite a testimony as to how well you perform.
ThanksHow do I know if customers keep coming back? It takes very little money to become an internet tout these days....no offense....

It's not like a lack of customers would immediately mean hanging up the "out of business" sign....

[Robert Fischer]

I was thinking more along the line of someone selling information, as I do. Thanks

Oh.

Then it really becomes about both win% and roi. If you limit yourself to win betting and have to pick every race, maybe you look to the morning line favorite as a comparison.

[mountainman]

No public handicapper can beat the take longterm picking every race. In fact, I suspect there is little disparity in roi or win percentage amongst selectors restricted to one track. Many players dismiss newspaper or tv handicappers as predictable and cautious, but don't realize how difficult and even ill-advised it can be to stab for longshots under the constraints imposed. Believe me, public handicappers are no less brave or creative than private ones, but being locked in well before post, lack the luxury of combing through late odds to find value. And TV handicapping,in particular, is simply not a suitable format for the sort of individual thinking that leads to longshot winners. It's about the commentary, not the selections. Viewers want to hear me talk about the chalk, contenders, pace scenario and track bias-with quick mention perhaps of a live longshot or two tossed in. There just isn't time on an inhouse show for a full blown, value-oriented approach or serious exploration of wagering options. Nor would such an approach even be appropriate for players of all levels. Newbies wouldn't "get it," and advanced players wouldn't want it.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

And TV handicapping,in particular, is simply not a suitable format for the sort of individual thinking that leads to longshot winners. It's about the commentary, not the selections. Viewers want to hear me talk about the chalk, contenders, pace scenario and track bias-with quick mention perhaps of a live longshot or two tossed in. There just isn't time on an inhouse show for a full blown, value-oriented approach or serious exploration of wagering options. Nor would such an approach even be appropriate for players of all levels. Newbies wouldn't "get it," and advanced players wouldn't want it.

How tough is it to say something like (when applicable)..........I hate the favorite and the 2nd choice is a big question mark so unlike all other TV handicappers, I'm going to bet a race and not a horse. Spend $60 and make a $1 tri bx with these 5 value horses.

I don't think that's too complicated or time consuming for anybody watching the show.

[asH]

Fischer,

Your avatar - the greatest American player to sit at a table, epitomized the American spirit with his style and genius…would’ve probably made a hellofa handicapper.

May his spirit live forever

Bobby Fischer

rip

[offtrack]

Help me define public handicapper a bit, as compared to private handicapper.

Public handicapper seems to me one who displays his selections to the public either in print or on the internet for review by the masses. Usually for little or no cost.

Private handicapper, like the private clocker, delivers selections to a smaller subcriber base for a higher cost.

Expectations for profitable selections would be different for these two groups.

[mountainman]

How tough is it to say something like (when applicable)..........I hate the favorite and the 2nd choice is a big question mark so unlike all other TV handicappers, I'm going to bet a race and not a horse. Spend $60 and make a $1 tri bx with these 5 value horses.

I don't think that's too complicated or time consuming for anybody watching the show.

Tougher than you think, because viewers want to know WHY you hate the favorite-and your opinion of other bet-downs as well. Time seems accelerated when you are talking on tv, toss in a partner and, by the time you are done giving requisite analysis, there simply isn't time for wagering schemes, or thumping your chest about how to "attack" a race. By the way, analyzing the favorite doesn't mean endorsing the favorite. No tv handicapper slams weak chalk as boldly as i do.

[rokitman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbtWuwQX8Is

[Robert Fischer]

Fischer,

Your avatar - the greatest American player to sit at a table, epitomized the American spirit with his style and genius…would’ve probably made a hellofa handicapper.

May his spirit live forever

Bobby Fischer

rip

Thanks asH,

He gets a lot of attention for his personal problems... I chose the avatar for the level he reached at his profession. Hopefully that is the spirit that lives on.

JMK

[asH]

Thanks asH,

He gets a lot of attention for his personal problems... I chose the avatar for the level he reached at his profession. Hopefully that is the spirit that lives on.

JMK

Thanks for qualifying that for me , I too speak of his spirit as a chess champ before his illness. At a time he was loved in America.

[mountainman]

Thanks for qualifying that for me , I too speak of his spirit as a chess champ before his illness. At a time he was loved in America.

It's said we don't change as we age, but rather become our real selves. I believe that and, chess aside, can't forgive Fischer some of his inflammatory remarks.

[highnote]

It's said we don't change as we age, but rather become our real selves.

That's a scary thought! Yikes!!

Look out world -- here come the baby boomers!!! :D

[asH]

It's said we don't change as we age, but rather become our real selves. I believe that and, chess aside, can't forgive Fischer some of his inflammatory remarks.

In my life, my experience, Ive seen people change. I live in NY.. sometimes I encounter people who are not 'aware'...or should I say, I dont hold responsible for their actions.... anyway, (good) chess players dont have extreme political views.
asH

[maxwell]

I think you would truly have to love 'capping to make public selections. The folks at the DRF grind it out endlessly it seems. They do articles, race analysis, and selections for every type of race out there. And a lot of the tracks are pretty crappy. I would be burnt and bombed out in less than a year. And I love handicapping.

I've never kept track but I would be very surprised if even the Consensus can show a profit at a meet. Far too many low priced picks.

If any of the DRF 'cappers could show a profit, I would probably bet on "The Hammer", Mike Hammersley. But I would want at least 15-1 on ALL his picks.

Talent AND value = a fighting chance. :)