Assesing Early Pressure

[Zaf]

Just interested in hearing what criteria people use to assess early pressure in a race. What factors do you use to decide if you feel a race will run sustained ? Quirin Speed Points ?

I think Randy Giles used to say " If there is a total of 3 E or E-P types totalling 21 speed points or more, we will have a hot pace.

Just interested to hear what formulas or methods other board members use to assess early pace pressure.

Thanks , ZAFONIC

[Fastracehorse]

I'm not saying it is always easy but it shouldn't be difficult overall to determine who are the early pressers, stalkers, and, closers.

One frustration is if your so-called anticipated pace scenario doesn't unfold you will get different results.

Ex., You would have liked a horse but he's going to get caught in a duel - but then the other horse breaks poorly so the horse is all alone. This happens alot so if possible it is good to have a plan B.

Fast.

BTW,

I just look at the call points to determine who is going to be where- not fractional calls - positional calls only.

[Zaf]

I am finding more often than not, it doesn't unfold the way I preceive it. Thats why I asked. I noticed that the TSN PP's list a running style and speed points. I often do not agree with it. Are they using some strange interpretation ? I thought they were following Quirin's methodology ?

ZAFONIC

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by zafonic
I am finding more often than not, it doesn't unfold the way I preceive it. Thats why I asked. I noticed that the TSN PP's list a running style and speed points. I often do not agree with it. Are they using some strange interpretation ? I thought they were following Quirin's methodology ?

ZAFONIC

I often email TSN about a methology I don't understand or a factual issue that comes up in the pp's. They always respond to my questions and usually in a timely fashion.

You may want to contact them about the specific horse(s) running style and speed points that you do not agree with and I'm sure they will be glad to answer your concerns.

JustMissed

[Zaf]

I am going to look back into some of my data files. I have seen horses given 8 speed points who were off the board in their last three starts and no where near the pace (beaten lengths).

I have seen horses labeled E Types, who have not been anywhere the lead in their last couple of starts. In fact I might have labelled them S types.

I believe these are computer generated and probably not checked. But shouldn't a computer program be able to do a little better than that ?

I will double check and try to find some specific examples before I begin to accuse them. I think I already have. Let me verify it.

ZAFONIC

[andicap]

The running styles are often inaccurate, largely no computer can be 100% accurate on assigning them.

The Quirin Points are more accurate but there are problems with

a) horses that come out maidens or are lighly raced. They'll assign a horse 8 points on these horses at times that don't deserve it.

b) Sprints to routers and vice versa. They'll give sprinters stretching out lots of points even if they were far back. Check that out.


I agree with youon pace handicapping. I used to do this, but too often the pace scenarios didn't pan out.
Exceptions: I found some great long shots in two circumstances:

1 Lone speed on the turf --

2. Closer in race with a ton of speed and has shown ability to win in the past. Ignore final times with these horses. They win when the race falls apart. Doesn't always happen but when the odds are good, you definitely want to take shot.

[JustMissed]

Sounds like a good plan to me. I'm going to go to Jim Lehane's book to see how he calculates the running styles. He is a DFR user and consequently assigns his styles manually.

I use TSN and don't worry about checking them manually but I do believe they only use past running lines that are indicative of the true running style and would not use excused races or poor races.

Let us know what you find out.

JustMissed

P.S. If you can figure out a rock solid way to tell when the early runners are going to burn each other out, PLEAS LET US KNOW. I think most of us could double our winnings overnight if we could crack that nut.

;)

[ranchwest]

Quirin's speed point rules are much more generous for sprinters stretching out, but for lightly raced horses my interpretation is that a horse cannot have 8 points until it has three races. In order to earn the bonus point, the horse has to be qualified three times. And, I don't have the book in front of me, but there is a chart for horses with one or two races. I understand the rule for an unraced horse to be that it gets 1 point.

My program calculates QSP for me. I'm following FG, PHA. LRL, PHA, PEN and HOU right now if anyone wants to compare notes on a few specific horses.

[joeprunes]

There is to many variables with pace. Say 3 horses had 46.3 halfs, each had different variants, one of the horses was a shipper with the same varient but on a speed bias track,now you got to decifer what the actual half would be run in,this is why I think alot of times you think you have the early speed horse and he is not there.Also different tracks have different turns ,and 1 turns and there is what weight they carried,ran outside now he is inside etc,etc. When I handicap my pace horses I break what I said above down..jp

[Doug]

RANCHWEST,

That is correct. You can get the whole method of calculating the speed points from the Randy Giles website (archived website).

Doug

[Doug]

joeprunes,

The Quirin speed points are designed to give you a calculated idea on how the race should shape up based on running styles of each horse entered. Doesn't always workout that way, but again what does with any high percentage of frequency?

Doug

[Zaf]

Originally posted by andicap
The running styles are often inaccurate, largely no computer can be 100% accurate on assigning them.

The Quirin Points are more accurate but there are problems with

a) horses that come out maidens or are lighly raced. They'll assign a horse 8 points on these horses at times that don't deserve it.

b) Sprints to routers and vice versa. They'll give sprinters stretching out lots of points even if they were far back. Check that out.


I agree with youon pace handicapping. I used to do this, but too often the pace scenarios didn't pan out.
Exceptions: I found some great long shots in two circumstances:

1 Lone speed on the turf --

2. Closer in race with a ton of speed and has shown ability to win in the past. Ignore final times with these horses. They win when the race falls apart. Doesn't always happen but when the odds are good, you definitely want to take shot.

Andy ,

You are bang on regarding the TSN PP's. I looked at a few and that concurs with what you wrote.

In a game where a 30% win percentage is considered good, it would make sense that our preceived pace scenarios would not work out most of the time. Too many variables. If we could be right most of the time we would certainly pick a higher percentage of winners. I guess we should continue to look for favorable scenarios and wager when the odds are right.

I caught a few longshots with the turf method you described. For some reason the public will ignore a Lone E8 in a turf route.

ZAFONIC

[kenwoodall]

No one may like my opinion, but i only note horses having early leads in the last 2 races and if they appear to fit the current race and be peaking.

[LOU M.]

If your are interested in Quirin, HTR creates the figures exactly the way the book outlines. In addition HTR also creates the percentage of speed points that each horse has which was part of how Quirin used this method.

[hurrikane]

and here are some db tests on the Quirin points

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-JAN2002.pdf

[Doug]

Ken Massa certainly does some great db tests. Seems to be the genuine article as he is straightahead about how he does the tests.

Hurricane-Thanks for the link.

Doug

[so.cal.fan]

Kenwoodall:
I tend to go along with you.......usually look at last three.
Nothing worse, imo, than a speed horse who hasn't been showing speed or a closer that hasn't been closing.

[hurrikane]

One thing about Ken, he doesn't come with the usuall hype and bs a lot of software people put out there.

[LOU M.]

I'll second that about Ken.

[GR1@HTR]

Lou M,

Good thing you are a pesky little phocker...
http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=15942#post15942

[andicap]

Wow!
Wonder what smf thinks about this....

[Tom]

I prefer to use speed point percentages rather that just the points. I like a horse with 30% a whole lot.

[LOU M.]

This is going to be the ultimate. The ever considerate Ken from HTR finding yet another way to utilize our monthly downloads from HDW.And all for no charge.