Embrace chaos

[46zilzal]

If you haven't read it, the book Chaos (Gleick) is a fascinating study into a realm that scientists are just beginning to understand.

To see that there is an underlying "order" within what appears random is amazing enough, but the applications of this discovery are evolving all the time.

Akin to this, is a great work by the Santa Fe Institute whose mathematicians have discovered that there is ORDER at the margins of chaos that creates self-organizing systems, much like what happens in the chaos of a horse race. This work is called Complexity by Waldrop.

Howard Sartin utilized these concepts in his teaching of handicapping and like the Yin-Yang he also promoted (read the Tao of Physics by Capra), it is a great parallel to the game's understanding.

[Great Communicator]

From what I remember from physics, an increase to a system's "order" requires a decrease in the system's entropy. So I guess if a horse race were less chaotic, even more orderly than it appears, some energy must be flowing into the system to cause this underlying order. Otherwise, the 2nd law of thermodynamics is being violated. Of course keep in mind, I barely passed physics.

[Tom]

And of course, the Doc had a program called Entropy. ;)

[asH]

I haven’t read Chaos yet, but did go through The Tao of Physics...interesting- the relationship between Physics and Eastern beliefs. Most of the book will not appeal to majority of folks, heavy dose of physics in the middle chapters. But philosophy of relationships is the main appeal.

In chapter 11; Beyond the World of Opposites

“Opposites are abstract concepts belonging to the realm of thought, and as such they are relative. By the very act of focusing our attention on any one concept, we create its opposite”.

Now I don’t subscribe to this completely, I don’t believe opposites are an abstract concept (if I understand him correctly) the universe is in motion due to opposites, in my mind ….anyway the second part of the idea reminds me of how horsemen have created terms to explain what they don’t understand like “bounce”, or “bias”, or the single numbers that are supposed to value horses relative to other horses.

For simplicity, If we use winning favorite percentage as a starting point 33%. I might say trainers , jockeys, handicappers will at best (relative) understand what it is going on only 33% of the time. So that following any system producing 33% winners (at its minimum) is successful (in the minds of horsemen). But the bottom line is it works 33% of the time, and can only explain itself 33% of the time. Which is why Bounce , bias, and Beyers numbers (in any form) are discussed… are they right, yeah, 33% of the time, but cannot account for 70% of the races.

“By the very act of focusing our attention on any one concept, we create its opposite”

Taste great – less filling

asH

[Dan Montilion]

Maxwell Smart begs to differ...

[SMOO]

From what I remember from physics, an increase to a system's "order" requires a decrease in the system's entropy. So I guess if a horse race were less chaotic, even more orderly than it appears, some energy must be flowing into the system to cause this underlying order. Otherwise, the 2nd law of thermodynamics is being violated.

I believe these are known as "fixed races" :lol:

[46zilzal]

[color=black]“By the very act of focusing our attention on any one concept, we create its opposite”


The essence of Yin and Yang