Comprehensive Odds Line - Delta Downs

[john messina]

Hi all,

Can we continue our successful day?

Delta Downs is on the menue.

[Toss_DeLoser]

R1 Delta

# 3 w/p
# 10 w/p

quin = 8 / 3-5-10

[john messina]

Hi all,

Can we continue our successful day?

Delta Downs is on the menue.

Boy, am I lucky. Just picked up another $34.00 Dark Horse, $306.00 Ex, $1,640 Trifecta, and a $3,673 Super. Why am I lucky? Because I have no clue as to what constitutes an oddsline. However, I have improved my "handicapping". I waited to the final possible moment, before I made my bets. That's when I noticed the horse pooped. And what a poop it was. I believe the weight reduction due to such a large poop gave the horse the advantage he needed.

Now, I just have to determine how to figure in the poop factor in my one factor oddsline. I hate to do it. It would invalidate my one factor non bayesian probability oddsline or is it a frequentist oddsline. I'm confused. Maybe they are the same.

I'm thinking. I could do better, if I learned how to compute speed ratings, speed points, class variations, trainer intentions, energy distribution, early pace, late pace, form anaylsis, etc. Better yet, maybe I can buy some great looking software that gives me every that's known to mankind about selecting winners. Nah, I stink to ignorance and keep on cashing.

[john messina]

Boy, am I lucky. Just picked up another $34.00 Dark Horse, $306.00 Ex, $1,640 Trifecta, and a $3,673 Super. Why am I lucky? Because I have no clue as to what constitutes an oddsline. However, I have improved my "handicapping". I waited to the final possible moment, before I made my bets. That's when I noticed the horse pooped. And what a poop it was. I believe the weight reduction due to such a large poop gave the horse the advantage he needed.

Now, I just have to determine how to figure in the poop factor in my one factor oddsline. I hate to do it. It would invalidate my one factor non bayesian probability oddsline or is it a frequentist oddsline. I'm confused. Maybe they are the same.

I'm thinking. I could do better, if I learned how to compute speed ratings, speed points, class variations, trainer intentions, energy distribution, early pace, late pace, form anaylsis, etc. Better yet, maybe I can buy some great looking software that gives me every that's known to mankind about selecting winners. Nah, I stink to ignorance and keep on cashing.

I'll entertain any ideas about to quatify the "poop" factor. My initial thoughts are:

Angle of Inclination of the poops as it navigates to the ground,
Poop denisty
Simulataneous poopers and their impact on their performance
Jockey's reaction to the poop
Poop proximity to the gate
Early or Late pooper
Does the poop impact adjacent horses and if so at what distance is the poop proximity a factor?
Poop length and circumference should definitely be a factor
Will the poop factor impact colts and fillies alike
Would mares be able to match poops with a gelding?
What if the horse continues to poop after the start. Does the factor become more prominent?
How much poop determines real value?
Is a hanging poop like a hanging chad?. Does it count?
Are all poops similar? Similarity might be important.
Do I need a track to track adjustment for the poop?
Does one poop cancel another poop?
Can we determine a par poop? (The defacto par poop handbook)
Can we keep this race influencing poop function out of the pp's? We want to have an edge as long as possible. Just thought of this. So, one this matter I'm not entertaining any suggestion. I have a name for the poop factor. The Poop Influence Function. (I discovered it. I get to name it.)

My lingering thought on this is... Will the tracks negate this factor by testing for excessive pooping, which may render this factor usless? I hope not. I'm going to invest lots of capital and resources studying The Poop Influence Function.

If anyone is interested, we can have a live forum to quantify The Poop Influence Function. Just imagine the possibilities.

[shanta]

Not including the Delta card this evening you had 48 "dark horses" that ran listed at all the other tracks.

48x2 = $96.00

Betting all regardless of odds yields 11 winners
6.00
16.40
13.20
25.20
9.20
33.60
9.40
19.40
8.40
28.20
6.20

totaling $ 175.60

You got a bit of "gangsta" in you too man! I'll be in the vast minority here but I like your style. Cocky sonofagun :ThmbUp:

[john messina]

Not including the Delta card this evening you had 48 "dark horses" that ran listed at all the other tracks.

48x2 = $96.00

Betting all regardless of odds yields 11 winners
6.00
16.40
13.20
25.20
9.20
33.60
9.40
19.40
8.40
28.20
6.20

totaling $ 175.60

You got a bit of "gangsta" in you too man! I'll be in the vast minority here but I like your style. Cocky sonofagun :ThmbUp:

But don't you appreciate the accuaracy of my oddsline. The listed dark horses are a side show. Just giving the folks a way to pick up a few bucks without having to look for overlays... and make a killing in the exotics. Thatn is if they have faith.

[john messina]

Not including the Delta card this evening you had 48 "dark horses" that ran listed at all the other tracks.

48x2 = $96.00

Betting all regardless of odds yields 11 winners
6.00
16.40
13.20
25.20
9.20
33.60
9.40
19.40
8.40
28.20
6.20

totaling $ 175.60

You got a bit of "gangsta" in you too man! I'll be in the vast minority here but I like your style. Cocky sonofagun :ThmbUp:

I noticed that you reside at New Rochelle, N.Y. Did you attend New Rochelle HS. I have several friends that played football at New Rochelle HS. Denis Barrett, Richard Roundtree, and a few others. I loved the Thanksgiving games between Iona Prep and New Rochelle. They weren't always the best teams, but the games were entertaining.

[shanta]

John
I went to the H.S. for 2 years. I had a Donald Barret my age. Not sure if they are related.

The "Turkey Bowl" games between New Rochelle and Iona were the best. We would get all charged up for them.

Best of luck John
Richie