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nobeyerspls
01-17-2008, 10:13 AM
Longball - Finally recovered from Saturday when my can't miss freshened filly finished last in the opener. The rest of the pick3 hit but all I got was a $25 exacta in the 2nd. I'm supposed to take solace in the fact that she was eased due to some injury but last is last. So here's the 1st at GP today - #2 Sweet Alicia and #3 Mymymyboogieshoes off a freshening, I'll box them, bet the #2 to win, and use them both in the double with #3 Know the Game.
Chalky - You obviously flunked handicapping 101. This is open claiming and the #2 is eligible for non-winners of two. Were you absent when they taught to avoid these against multiple winners?
Longball - That's why she'll be a price. That and the presence of JR on #6 De Jewel, a vulnerable favorite. So, what have you got?
Chalky - I'll skip this and try an exacta box in the 3rd. I'm still smarting from Saturday when my co-favorites ran 2nd and 4th. It hurt more when you found the 5-1 winner in that race. Anyway, #3 Kristali and #4 Shucks look like they're in a two horse race. What about Aqueduct? I like #2 Alberti over #1 Fiddlers Warrior in the 2nd.
Longball - Look at Pavlov's Dog in that race. His last was too close to that 4f work and this could be a favorable surface change for him if the track is dry. The turf broodmare sire might account for the bad off track performance and he's FTL with blinkers on.
Chalky - He's listed at 5-1. Are you holding back on your real longshots?
Longball - How about the 5th with #2 Hello Natasha (15-1) running with #8 Premont and the #4 and #9 underneath or #7 Rythm of Dixie (20-1) on a wakeup in the 6th. Back at GP's 7th, Mary Eppler has #4 Let It Go Lady (20-1) working well after some time off. The race is a crapshoot with five firsters and #6 Miss Primetime for Eddie Keneally looks like the best of those.
Chalky - Hey, I almost forgot to give you an easy winner in the 4th in NY. King David J has the speed to blow these away. If you've been paying attention to some of the guy's on here you'll remember that they say to bet the speed in maiden races.
Longball - Don't expect that 3-1 that's listed and you might worry about #9 Mighty Morris. Schosberg is solid with firsters and this one is working like a racehorse. Those same guys that say to bet speed also say to get value and your pick may not provide that. Anyway, good luck.

Burls
01-17-2008, 01:23 PM
Longball - Finally recovered from Saturday when my can't miss freshened filly finished last in the opener. ... I'm supposed to take solace in the fact that she was eased due to some injury but last is last.

For me, it's worse to lose by a nose.
I feel a burst of frustrated helplessness and disappointment as I watch the other horse's nose drift across the line just in front of mine's.
So close, and yet so far.
Either way, the WIN bet ticket isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

This way, you should get pretty good odds next time she runs.
Or have you dropped her from your 'must bet' list?

By the way, thanks for the many little nuggets of handicapping wisdom I've picked up from your posts over the past few months

Burls

Burls
01-17-2008, 01:47 PM
So here's the 1st at GP today - #2 Sweet Alicia and #3 Mymymyboogieshoes off a freshening, I'll box them...


NICE!!!

$1 Exacta3-2 107.90

nobeyerspls
01-18-2008, 09:30 AM
NICE!!!

$1 Exacta3-2 107.90

Thanks for the kind words in the other post and for noticing a winner. However, a little self-criticism is in order. A $5 exacta box yielded $540. For the same ten bucks I could have played 2,3/2,3/all in the trifecta and cashed for $1,133.